How climate talks can be more successful
May 12, 2014 by Angela Herring, Northeastern University
For more than two decades, members of the United Nations have sought to forge an agreement to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. But so far, these international climate negotiations have had limited success.
What’s more, game theoretical modeling of the negotiations suggests that there are feasible solutions to the problem. That is, there are commitments that the countries participating in the negotiations could agree to that would accomplish the targeted global emissions reductions. “So, if these solutions are there, the question is why negotiations have not yet reached them – why don’t we have an agreement,” said Ron Sandler, a professor of philosophy at Northeastern University who focuses on environmental ethics.
“We thought the problem might be not be with the potential solutions that might or might not exist, but rather reaching them from where we are now,” added Rory Smead, an assistant professor of Philosophy at Northeastern and an expert in game theory.
In a paper released Sunday in the journal Nature Climate Change, Smead, Sandler, and their colleagues, including Northeastern Assistant Professor John Basl, put forth a new modeling approach that examines this very problem. The results suggest that side agreements, such as bilateral commitments between the US and China or those made in venues like the G8 and G20 summits may be even more important than previously suspected.
Most climate negotiation modeling studies have used social dilemma games such as the prisoner’s dilemma, in which the best interests of the individual agent are not the same as those of the whole. But, as Smead said, “All countries in a sense want to solve this problem—what they disagree on is how to go about solving it.”
So rather than using a social dilemma game, the research team used a bargaining negotiation model. Here’s how it works: Multiple players must coordinate on an agreement with the goal of cutting global greenhouse gas emissions by the targeted amount. While each agent would like to keep his own reductions as low as possible, he would prefer to increase his proposal if it means the group would be more likely to reach a consensus. “If push comes to shove, they’d prefer to do more,” Smead said.
The game starts with each player making an initial proposal to reduce emissions by a certain amount. Then the players see what their fellow participants proposed to and readjust their own proposals. Repeating this several times will eventually either lead to a break down in negotiations or an agreement that makes everyone happy.
It’s a simple model that doesn’t take into account such things as national politics and enforcement scenarios, but it has an important feature: It reveals potential barriers to successful negotiations that might be hidden in more complex models.
The research team found that a few factors were extremely important in maintaining successful negotiations. In particular, agreements were more likely to be reached if the group wascomprised of fewer agents rather than many; if the group consisted of a variety of small and large emitters; and if the perceived individual threat of not reaching an agreement was high.
“The results bare on a number of political questions,” Sandler said. “For instance, while we ultimately need an agreement that includes reductions from almost everyone, side agreements among smaller numbers of participants don’t undermine—but may actually promote—the U.N. process.”
Since smaller groups are more likely to reach consensus, the researchers said, it would be better for a subgroup of countries to come to a consensus on its own and then bring that single proposal to the larger group.
“It would be much better if the rest of the world could figure out a potential agreement and then invite countries such as China and the U.S. to the table,” Smead explained. If that smaller group’s offer is sufficient—that is, if it promises to reduce emissions by the proportional amount necessary to achieve the global goal—then it should be successful in the larger venue.
This suggests that efforts such as the G8 and G20 climate summits are actually beneficial to the efforts of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is considered the most important climate bargaining forum. Many have worried that these smaller efforts weaken UNFCCC’s work, but the new research disputes that concern.
– See more at: http://www.northeastern.edu/news/2014/05/modeling-international-climate-negotiations/#sthash.4YMGgCQu.dpuf
Five, Six
Pick up sticks
“All countries in a sense want to solve this problem—what they disagree on is how to go about solving it.”
All countries? And, what’s “this problem”? Moreover, in what “sense”does an unclear number of countries want to solve an uncleanly formulated problem?
Environmental ethics philosophers using game theory to model climate change talks by policymakers regarding emission reduction.
It cannot get more amateurish than that.
But if they gave up then all those important people would have to give up one of their favorite taxpayer-financed junkets.
“Since smaller groups are more likely to reach consensus, the researchers said, ”
Absolute genius! How could the world survive without the searing insight of these academic boffins?
“… and if the perceived individual threat of not reaching an agreement was high.”
Oh right, so all we need to do is exaggerate the dangers of global warming, scare everyone shitless and then they’ll all agree to do what we tell them.
Wow, it’s so simple , how comes no one had thought of this before?!
The whole concept of emissions cuts is a hilarious farce. With emissions cuts, the prize goes to whoever cheats the most – whoever does the best job of misreporting their emissions, while delivering the cheapest possible energy to their economy. Whoever wins the climate game enjoys prosperity and political popularity, the worst losers are always those who seriously attempt to fulfil their commitments.
Wolf!
Wolf!
Wolf!
Wolf!
Wolf!
This is getting boring, as this damn wolf is never going to come.
The anchor text in the URL says it all:
lol
I hope they can model politics better than the IPCC can model climate.
If they are as good as they think they are, then we could all do away with the bother of actually having elections if they can already tell us the answer.
Is it logically possible to model stupidity?
But, why bother at all?
“The results bare on a number of political questions,” (?) Why ever would the results get naked? These are college graduates who don’t know the difference between getting naked and depending?
Not that it matters anyway, since the desired result is not borne by evidence. Or, maybe in this case the result would be made bare by the evidence.
That’s a fair question Rob. If we were too good at it then we might be faced with the prospect of an international philosophers strike.
I look forward to the next BRIC through the AGW window.
business in China is fighting back:
13 May: Reuters: Guangdong carbon scheme sparks China green vs growth dispute
By Kathy Chen and Stian Reklev
Additional reporting by David Stanway
China’s campaign against pollution and greenhouse gases is hitting early resistance in Guangdong province, where more than 60 manufacturers are holding back from a carbon market launched last year, saying the scheme is unfair and too costly.
The stand-off between a quarter of the intended participants in the emissions market and the provincial government underlines the difficulty in implementing green policies in China, even after the launch of a national “war against pollution”…
“There is no reason for companies to pay millions of yuan a year (for carbon permits) when environment and energy regulators already charge us other pollution fees,” said an official at provincial government-owned iron and steel producer SGIS Songshan, which has not bought any carbon permits.
The official, who wanted to remain anonymous because he was not authorized to speak to media, said pollution costs were already weighing heavily on the company as it must also pay fees for sulphur dioxide emissions, waste water and solid waste, and adhere to strict efficiency standards.
Despite strong backing from Beijing, Guangdong has limited power to force SGIS or other hold-outs – mostly cement and steel makers – to participate in its carbon market. It can hit them with a fine of 50,000 yuan ($8,000) per company and a possible reduction in the number of permits allocated to them next year.
That’s measured, though, against an aggregate 42 million yuan the companies need to spend for access to carbon permits with a market value of 1.4 billion yuan…
In Guangdong, the local government hands out for free 97 percent of the permits that companies are expected to need to cover their emissions. To access the permits, they must buy the other 3 percent in auctions at a minimum price of 60 yuan each.
Yet, when the last planned auction for the 2013 compliance year ended a week ago, data from the China Emissions Exchange in Guangzhou showed that 64 of the 242 companies covered by the scheme still had not bought any carbon permits.
“Some of the companies don’t have the money to pay for the permits. They are unlikely to change their mind and will not engage even if there are more permit auctions,” said a consultant with several steel mills holding back from the Guangdong market among his clients…
“We have noticed the companies’ concern and are discussing how to handle it,” said an official with the Guangdong government’s carbon trading department who wished to remain anonymous.
The government may arrange an extra auction in order to give companies another opportunity to buy permits and is also looking at ways to use auction revenue to help the firms cut emissions, the official said…
Li Xinchuang, vice-secretary general of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), recently told a conference some regions face environmental costs twice as high as other areas.
Only one of China’s other six pilot markets, in Hubei province, auctions a share of the permits, but there is no minimum requirement and the minimum price is set at 20 yuan.
The remaining four pilot schemes – in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Tianjin – issue carbon permits for free, while in the rest of China, companies do not now face any carbon costs.
The country’s large- and medium-sized steel mills lost 2.3 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2014, according to CISA, at least in part due to rising pollution costs…
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/05/12/uk-china-carbon-idINKBN0DS1JM20140512
Although I do not believe that CO2 emissions present an existential threat to humanity there are very good reasons why reducing the extraction and consumption of fossil fuels makes sense. High levels of consumption creates high demand which forces up prices and drives extractors to more and more marginal and costly sources of supply. Better to focus fossil fuel consumption in those areas where there are no feasible substitutes and refocus the many billion spent on climate research onto the development of second and third wave energy technologies. Nuclear is a far safer and cheaper alternative than it was 50 years ago. Solar panels are expensive and ugly but new product coatings and materials are being developed which could transform this source of energy.
In my view Sandler and his team are pointing in the right direction. A multiplicity of less fraught side agreements could lead to more efficient global energy solutions without the imposition of transnational monitoring by the UN. Such agreements would also encourage technology exchange and the sharing of resources which could allow a better global solution to the world’s energy needs to emerge. Whatever the climate and however it changes, reshaping the global energy landscape has to be a key priority given that another 2 billion souls are expected to swell the world’s population by 2030. Another side benefit of a more successful energy strategy is that it would facilitate the redeployment of the huge, global, AGW research funding. Research funding which only encourages academic numpties to produce toilet paper research whose only purpose is to catch the attention of the IPCC reviewers and whose defining characteristic is that it is inevitably wrong.
–as Smead said, “All countries in a sense want to solve this problem—what they disagree on is how to go about solving it.”–
This slightly more foolishness than all countries want peace.
Chinese government has more incentive to stop polluting it’s cities so less Chinese die from the massive toxic junk they spewing into the atmosphere. And what country is going to disagree with that priority?
So basically all the chinese are going negotiate is what they want anyhow- and what they are negotiating for is to somehow get some sort of payment or better concession they can get from other countries. And so one can imagine what kind of concession the Chinese could want. Right?
Chinese are already in war over south china seas.
Pretty simple to know how Chinese want to play these dummies.
I think they should hold the conferences in exotic tropical locations like, for example, Tahiti. (Tropical locations are less likely to suffer from the Gore effect…) That way the hard working “Climate Scientists” and all the political and Hollywood activist balloon-chasing hangers-on will be in a far better frame of mind to continue their planet-saving work.
Angela Herring seems to be a bit left-leaning in her politics, I guess in the climate debate she’s just another Red Herring.
“For more than two decades, members of the United Nations have sought to forge an agreement to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. But so far, these international climate negotiations have had limited success.”
This is where I am a true, pure, dyed in the wool sceptic (I would proudly use the stronger D word but would – yet again – have my comment axed by the Moderator Mafioso)
IPCC: “Emissions need to be reduced by 40% to 70% on 2010 levels by the middle of the century and to near zero by 2100, to make it likely temperatures will not go above 2C”
There is NO WAY the World community will ever get together to achieve this. The proof is seen in the fact that so far NOTHING has been done. Individuals, businesses, countries are just too interested in feathering number one’s nest to make, or even consider, the changes necessary – read Economic Growth – more stuff. Then there’s population growth – though economic growth is the main driver behind the growing global GHG emissions.
Bottom line: Humans (generally) are far too selfish to either recognize the problem, or if they do, to do anything about it. Only thing to do is fasten your seatbelt…
And now it’s Game Theory, no less!
…….An utter pre-occupation with the abstract; Climate Change is like that!
The climate negotiation modeling studies are failing and the global climate modeling is failing….the problem is too many modellers and not enough good people immersed in actual reality.
What is it, I wonder, that these people in their ivory towers do not understand about the fact that “Action taken on climate change” has been at the very bottom of the world’s priority heap for at least the better part of a year – according to (believe it or not) a UN sponsored survey, that now claims to have over 2 million respondents!
NEWSFLASH: Climate change still at bottom of world’s priority heap
Amazing. Simply amazing.
The real issue is that the IPCC ‘consensus’ is based on juvenile scientific mistakes. It’s based on the concept of “Forcing’, net energy transfer to Earth’s surface by solar SW and atmospheric LW radiation. Standard physics assesses both as the difference of ‘Radiation Fields’ from ‘Stefan-Boltzmann’ equations. The IPCC does it differently.
The SW emitter is the Sun, 5,500 deg.K. The SW absorber, mainly the surface, is cooler but it still has a RF so net SW surface heating rate = Sigma(F1.T_sun^4 – F2.T_surface^4). Sigma is the S-B constant, F1 and F2 are parameters dependent on clouds etc.,Ts are temperatures. It comes to +160 W/m^2 (mean) ‘thermalising’. At equilibrium, this heat goes to the atmosphere; 97 W/m^2 convection/evapo-transpiration and 63 W/m^2 net IR emission, of which 40 W/m^2 goes to Space.
In standard physics, net LW IR energy must be the negative of net LW surface heating = Sigma(F3.T_atmosphere^4 – F4.T_surface^4), numerically 333 W/m^2 – 396 W/m^2 = -63 W/m^2. Conservation of energy is proved by: 160 W/m^2 (SW heating) -97 W/m^2 (convection) -63 W/m^2 (LW cooling) = 0 W/m^2. As net surface IR emission in the main GHG bands is zero, there is no atmospheric heating from this cause.
However, ‘Climate Alchemists’ assume 396 W/m^2 surface LW RF, the ‘black body’ level for 16 deg C, is a real IR flux when in reality it’s the potential energy flux to a sink at absolute zero. Only the 63 W/m^2 is real. They make up the difference by assuming 333 W/m^2 LW RF measured by ‘pyrgeometers’ pointing to the atmosphere (‘back radiation’) provides extra surface heat when standard physics shows for a normal temperature gradient, an atmospheric RF can’t transfer any energy to the surface. This failure to understand what their main instrument outputs is a serious scientific mistake.
Adding the 97 W/m^2 convection makes 493 W/m^2, 3x the real heating rate, never proved experimentally. As it’s far too high they offset 238.5 W/m^2 by falsely applying Kirchhoff’s Law of Radiation to the semi-transparent emitter at Top of Atmosphere. The residual c. 60% more heating than reality is, with 3x real GHE, used to purport imaginary ‘positive feedback’. They then use c. 25% extra low level cloud albedo in hindcasting to pretend the extra energy doesn’t heat the atmosphere above reality.
Go deeper into the physics and CO2 ‘Climate Sensitivity’ is near zero. This massive waste of resources is nothing less than science fraud; manipulation of data to purport much more heating than reality. It exaggerates the GHG-absorbed IR component by a factor of 5.1. The scam deceived all but real heat transfer experts of which I am one. The UN has been badly misled.
“Nuclear is a far safer and cheaper alternative than it was 50 years ago. ”
Agreed that it i safer, but disagree with implication that it was ever un-safe.
IN 60 years of nuclear power , with over 400 nuclear reactors, we have had two
major nuclear accidents (I reject any reference to Chernobyl as irrelevant to
Western nucear power) Three Mile Island and Fukushima. Fukushima occurred
under extraordinary circumstances that will never be duplicated – total loss of the
grid of an entire region and widespread destruction never before witnessed.
Despite all this, no one was killed in either accident and ony two workers received
very minor injuries in Fukushima. No one, workers or public, received any levels of
radiation higher than that considered safe by international standards. Anyone who
worries about nuclear safety is an ignorant moron, plain and simple. You are far
more justified in worrying about being killed by a meteor.
omnologos,
If you were to decide to try, you could add:
Gender theory
Racist oppression
Social Justice
Environmental Justice
Income Inequality/Minimum Wage
Model Theory Theory
charles – this is for you
“Using model theory theory towards the empowering of social and environmental justice for maginalized ethnically and gender-wise minorities via a bargaining game analysis of international climate negotiations in an increasingly inequal world”.
WaPo, still clinging on to CAGW, but selling carbon emisission permits is the only “weapon” on offer:
12 May: WaPo Wonk Blog: Why society is failing to stop global warming, in one 90-second video
By Puneet Kollipara
PHOTO CAPTION: …California is set to unveil a new weapon in its fight against global climate change November 14, 2012 when it holds its first sale of carbon emissions permits – a landmark experiment that it hopes will serve as a model for other U.S. states and the federal government. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/Files
This new video from the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences not only shows the recent global carbon-dioxide trend, but it also shows that humans have increased carbon-dioxide levels rapidly, and to their highest levels in at least 800,000 years…
One thing to keep in mind is that 400 ppm is mainly a mathematical and psychological milestone. We probably haven’t hit any major tipping points by hitting 400 ppm. But the milestone still shows how close we are to hitting a more significant target from a policymaking and climatological standpoint…
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/05/12/why-society-is-failing-to-stop-global-warming-in-one-90-second-video/