From Brigham Young University:
Tree rings reveal nightmare droughts in the West
If you think the 1930s drought that caused The Dust Bowl was rough, new research looking at tree rings in the Rocky Mountains has news for you: Things can get much worse in the West.
In fact the worst drought of this century barely makes the top 10 of a study that extended Utah’s climate record back to the year 1429.
With sandpaper and microscopes, Brigham Young University professor Matthew Bekker analyzed rings from drought-sensitive tree species. He found several types of scenarios that could make life uncomfortable in what is now the nation’s third-fastest-growing state:
– Long droughts: The year 1703 kicked off 16 years in a row with below average stream flow.
– Intense droughts: The Weber River flowed at just 13 percent of normal in 1580 and dropped below 20 percent in three other periods.
– Consecutive worst-case scenarios: The most severe drought in the record began in 1492, and four of the five worst droughts all happened during Christopher Columbus’ lifetime.
“We’re conservatively estimating the severity of these droughts that hit before the modern record, and we still see some that are kind of scary if they were to happen again,” said Bekker, a geography professor at BYU. “We would really have to change the way we do things here.”
Modern climate and stream flow records only go back about 100 years in this part of the country, so scientists like Bekker turn to Mother Nature’s own record-keeping to see the bigger picture. For this study, the BYU geographer took sample cores from Douglas fir and pinyon pine trees. The thickness of annual growth rings for these species is especially sensitive to water supply.
Using samples from both living and dead trees in the Weber River basin, the researchers built a tree-ring chronology that extends back 585 years into Utah’s natural history. Modern stream flow measurements helped them calibrate the correlation between ring thickness and drought severity.
As Bekker and his co-authors report in the Journal of the American Water Resources Association, the west’s climate usually fluctuates far more than it did in the 1900s. The five previous centuries each saw more years of extremely dry and extremely wet climate conditions.
“We’re trying to work with water managers to show the different flavors of droughts this region has had,” said Bekker. “These are scenarios you need to build into your models to know how to plan for the future.”
Bekker collaborated with researchers from the U.S. Forest Service, Columbia University and Utah State University. The team is currently working on a climate reconstruction based on tree rings that date back more than 1,000 years.
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@Pamela Gray – Quite right! I lived north of the Adirondacks for a decade or so and most assuredly the colder the weather the less snow occurred , the dry cold arctic blasts would send the snow to the south of us routinely, the warmer winters were notably snowier. Warmer atmosphere definitely holds more water vapor than a cold one. Which again makes me ask : How do the CAGW climate scientists KNOW that tropospheric CO2 concentrations above 400 ppm will cause droughts ? Or perturbations of the jets streams? Or acidification of oceans? Or cause super storms? How do they calculate these and all the other predictive claims? Will a critical cross examination of the meta data and computer model codes explain / prove any of this or not?
ferdberple says: May 2, 2014 at 6:56 pm
‘“Yes,” said Arthur, “yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying ‘Beware of the Leopard’.”’
I had no trouble finding it. WG! documents are very systematic. You look in Ch 6, the paleo chapter. It is laid out in periods. The last, logically, is the last 2000 yrs. That is laid out in data type, with:
6.6.5 Regional Variability in Quantities Other than Temperature
As promised, that surveys regions, and sec 5 is on N America. I quoted the first para.
The WG1 has lots of information. You can’t expect to find everything on page 1.
Having visited Peru several years ago for the purpose of seeing the Inca sites of Cuzco, Machu Picchu etc we took a drive in January this year to spent a day in Canberra at the “Gold of the Inca’s/Lost worlds of Peru” exhibition.
What is not often understood regarding Peruvian cultures is that the Inca’s were preceded by two significant civilisations who’s treasures were also on display, they were the Chimu and then the Moche. According to the exhibition notes amongst the treasures, and I quote this from a photo I took because I saw the funny side of it as it applies to our maniacal alarmists “The downfall of the Moche is linked to the disastrous consequences of a severe El Nino, which caused 30 years of flooding, then 30 years of drought. Such disruption undermined believe in the supernatural powers of the rulers.”
In todays world the rulers would be the stupid ambitious politicians who’s ego’s are pumped up by the High priesthood IE; Mann et al. We should just be happy that human sacrifices are no longer in vogue. But I am sure, just as happened millennia ago, their supernatural powers are being weakened by the hour. We can only hope that they are exposed before they destroy our civilisation or have weakened it beyond its capacity to recover.
It illustrates again how much the IPCC set back climatology.
Tim
It’s not the IPCC that has set back climatology it’s climatologists. They have had the opportunity to stop this nonsense for 30 years and have failed to take it.
The WG1 has lots of information. You can’t expect to find everything on page 1.
Isn’t that the intention of the people who write the document.?
Thanks Nick. Do you know where I can find a similar assessment of past North American droughts and mega droughts in the past 1,000 years or more in the CURRENT (AR5) report?
RE: Old Farmer says:
May 2, 2014 at 9:34 pm
“…“The downfall of the Moche is linked to the disastrous consequences of a severe El Nino, which caused 30 years of flooding, then 30 years of drought. Such disruption undermined believe in the supernatural powers of the rulers.”…”
The same may very well have contributed to social chaos in the Anasazi culture. Originally it was felt a great drought caused the changes, however the droughts don’t quite match the social chaos.
An old 1996 NY Times article suggesting this can be seen here: http://cpluhna.nau.edu/People/anasazi_collapse.htm
I like your idea that you can see our current “Climate Scientists” as being like ancient priests who are in hot water because the public’s “belief in the supernatural” has been undermined.
There are all sorts of ideas about what happened to the Anasazi. Obviously their society was not static and stagnant during the hundreds of years it existed, (and continues to exist as Pueblo Cultures.) They saw the passage of centuries, the onset and departure of the Medieval Warm Period, the tree-line moving up the mountains and then descending, and made amazing adaptations. The fact they couldn’t adapt, all of a sudden, suggests social strife more than it suggests climate change.
Some interesting trivia I have noted involves the fact the biggest Kivas used, as rafters for the roof, entire tree trunks that had to be moved over fifty miles by a society that apparently had neither wheels nor large draft animals like oxen or horses. This suggests people working with people. However those huge kivas were apparently destroyed by an uprising of the local folk. (Some try to blame invading Apache and Navajo, but they were few and scattered, and the timing isn’t quite right.)
One thing that may have annoyed the local folk was the sort of summer thunderstorm that turns dry washes into raging rivers, in modern times. Apparently the rains were formerly gentler, and it was possible to build an amazing system of dams and canals, however when the downpours began not only were the dams washed out, but the bottoms of rivers eroded down too deep for water to go into the entrances of the irrigation canals.
Just imagine you were the Anasazi “Climate Scientist” in charge of making it rain, and all of a sudden there are summer thunderstorms that wreck everything. I imagine the smart ones packed their bags and snuck out of town in the dead of night. I imagine the stupid ones tried to blame the farmers.
Jimbo says:
“Do you know where I can find a similar assessment of past North American droughts and mega droughts in the past 1,000 years or more in the CURRENT (AR5) report?”
Yes. They have a section devoted to it, 5.5.5, entitled Megadroughts and Floods. eg
“During the last millennium, western North America drought reconstructions based on tree ring information (Figure 5.13) show longer and more severe droughts than today, particularly during the MCA in the southwestern and central United States (Meko et al., 2007; Cook et al., 2010b).”
Nick Stokes says:
May 2, 2014 at 5:16 pm
Tim Ball says: May 2, 2014 at 10:46 am
“None of this is new and no I am not tired of saying it, although I imagine some are tired of hearing it. It illustrates again how much the IPCC set back climatology.”
==============================================
It’s not new in the IPCC either. The AR4 said, seven years ago:
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That is not relevant Nick, because they still preach the disaster policy of the precautionary principle. What is somewhere in the body of the report, and what is blazoned across global headlines is two very different things.
Your use of the “fine print” which is what it is compared to the headlines, is a disservice to truth
From the New York Times, in 1994:
“BEGINNING about 1,100 years ago, what is now California baked in two droughts, the first lasting 220 years and the second 140 years. Each was much more intense than the mere six-year dry spells that afflict modern California from time to time, new studies of past climates show. The findings suggest, in fact, that relatively wet periods like the 20th century have been the exception rather than the rule in California for at least the last 3,500 years, and that mega-droughts are likely to recur.
“The evidence for the big droughts comes from an analysis of the trunks of trees that grew in the dry beds of lakes, swamps and rivers in and adjacent to the Sierra Nevada, but died when the droughts ended and the water levels rose. Immersion in water has preserved the trunks over the centuries.”
http://www.nytimes.com/1994/07/19/science/severe-ancient-droughts-a-warning-to-california.html
Thanks for that Nick.
In your earlier first IPCC reference I also see:
So can I conclude that even with rapid curtailment of man-made greenhouse gases “multi-year, decadal and even centennial-scale drier periods are likely to remain a feature of future North American climate”?
I found your AR5 link which was a whopping pdf of 4.5MB!
This contrasts just a little with this.
But, …. but, they used wind power back in 1429.
Old Farmer says:
May 2, 2014 at 9:34 pm
—————————————–
I watched a documentary on the Chimu a few weeks back. While it is true that a long period of flooding had a profound effect on that culture (the main city of Chan Chan was irrigated using canals up to 20 km long dug by the Chimu) it did not mark their end. They switched from irrigation-intensive farming to trading with the inland peoples. The fortunes they had amassed within the walls of their great city eventually raised the interest of the Incas who conquered the Chimu and took much of their gold – according to the program.
Also of note, a 43 person grave has been recently uncovered featuring the skeletal remains of prepubescent children (10-12) who were sacrificed in a ritual slaughter, probably to please the rain gods. The children were opened at the breastbone and their hearts removed.
In addition to irrigation the Chimu dug out their fields (20-30 ft below surface) to just above the water table in order to minimize water requirements. When the rains came (continually) their fields were constantly flooded. You can’t wait 30 years for the rain gods to reverse the switch so the Chimu started trading with others, using their stash of gold as currency.
I have a terrible memory but I think the Chimu also viewed clam shells as very valuable. The wealthy would have these shells crushed and someone walking in front of them would scatter the shell dust on the ground so they could walk in richness. If that doesn’t spell the end of a civilization then what does?
The drought that hit the middle colonies (the Virginia Tide Water areas) during the 15th Century was a millennial drought (according to tree rings one of the worst droughts to hit North America since the 9th Century). Spanish missionaries arrived there first (circa 1560); but it was so hot and dry they abandoned their missions and set up shop in present day Saint Augustine, Florida. Later, in the 1600s, English colonists arrived in the midst of an ever worsening drought. The colonies at Jamestown and Roanoke suffered terrible – most of the colonists either starved to death or became lost in the wilderness in search of water).
The Little Ice Age was not kind to the Mexicans. Parched throats, disease, misery, death, water conflicts and so on.
Picking on semantics here….with a little snark thrown in…perhaps they meant the worst drought since…..2000? This century? Wouldn’t surprise me since the typical propaganda scare machine works in this fashion.
@Jimbo:
Sounds like Hanta Virus to me…
@All:
FWIW, Florida gets warmer and wetter when the rest of Europe / Western USA gets colder and dryer. It looks like the process is that the Gulf Stream / North Atlantic Drift slows down and that brings cold / dry to Europe and the heat backs up into Florida / Caribbean basin. Somehow this also results in drought out West. I referenced a paper in this write up:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/12/15/d-o-ride-my-see-saw-mr-bond/
but that link is now dead. Don’t know where to find the paper now. It was at:
http://www.ndsu.nodak.edu/pubweb/~ashworth/webpages/g440/Grimm_et_al_Lake_Tulane.pdf
I likely have a copy of it saved somewhere ( as I started archiving anything I found of interest once the AGW Langoliers started to erase anything that they didn’t like…) but it would take a few hours to find it 😉
My text describing it said:
If anyone finds a link to the paper again, please let me know.