Bob Tisdale recently took some of the early wailers to task over the expected El Niño this year, saying:
I knew it wouldn’t take long. The 2014/15 El Niño has yet to form and there’s already a well-commented blog post about it that spreads more speculative nonsense than one would think possible.
So, I thought it might be time to do some forecasting of our own. First, some basics,
From Tisdales recent article, we have this graph showing another model vs. reality divergence.
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NOTHING IN THE INSTRUMENT TEMPERATURE RECORD INDICATES ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING HAS HAD ANY IMPACT ON THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC IN 32+ YEARS
El Niño events take place in the tropical Pacific. Figure 1 is a model-data comparison of the sea surface temperature anomalies of the tropical Pacific since the start of the Reynolds OI.v2 satellite-enhanced sea surface temperature dataset in November 1981. The models are represented by the multi-model ensemble-member mean of the climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive, which was used by the IPCC for their 5th assessment report. (Figure 1 is from the post Maybe the IPCC’s Modelers Should Try to Simulate Earth’s Oceans. See that post for further information.) According to the most current generation of climate models—the latest and greatest climate models—if manmade greenhouse gases warmed the sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific, they should have warmed about 0.58 deg C over the past 32+ years, based on the linear trend. But the observed sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific show little warming in 32+ years.
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When/if a large or super El Niño forms, you know the usual suspects will try to link it to global warming/climate change. It is as certain as the sun rising in the morning.
So, readers are invited to create statements/headlines that they think are likely to appear in the media, and when we get a hit on one of those, we’ll refer back to this WUWT article and point out that it was expected, but there’s just no linkage.
My contribution is:
Trenberth told us that heat hiding in the ocean would jump out and burn us in the future, and he was right!
Happy headlining!
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Nobody has yet metioned the Humboldt Current in all this. It has got to be a major component in the whole ENSO system – surely! Right now it seems to have ‘gone to sleep’. Is this this a regular occurence? Could it have resulted from some slackening of the West Wind Drift and the Westerly Winds (Roaring Forties etc.)? This doesn’t seem to have happened in the last couple of years.
I’m wondering if the Roaring Forties etc. will become re-established in the looming Southern Hemisphere winter, and if they do, whether the Humboldt Current will get going again. And if the Humboldt Current gets going again, what effect that will have on the El Nino?
Headline in New York Times:
We’re all going to die! We’re all going to die! Run for your lives!
We’re doomed.
@TomR,Worc,MA,USA
I’d say “mors scepticismi”, but I’m no expert on philosophical Latin.
BBC, IPCC, Al Gore confirm, regular, expected and widely predicted El Nino weather pattern in 2015 will see Polar Icecaps melt by 2014 – or maybe grow…. Kinda.
Will it be more unprecedented than they thought?
“Massive El Nino Signals Climate Tipping Point Has Been Reached”
“Related: Re-analysis of Mayan Calendar Shows End of World Approaching”
One day at a time folks, whether it is El Nino or La Nina, one thing for sure, the sun is always shining during the day. Whether it gets through because of clouds, is another query these climate alarmists cannot understand.