Bob Tisdale recently took some of the early wailers to task over the expected El Niño this year, saying:
I knew it wouldn’t take long. The 2014/15 El Niño has yet to form and there’s already a well-commented blog post about it that spreads more speculative nonsense than one would think possible.
So, I thought it might be time to do some forecasting of our own. First, some basics,
From Tisdales recent article, we have this graph showing another model vs. reality divergence.
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NOTHING IN THE INSTRUMENT TEMPERATURE RECORD INDICATES ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING HAS HAD ANY IMPACT ON THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC IN 32+ YEARS
El Niño events take place in the tropical Pacific. Figure 1 is a model-data comparison of the sea surface temperature anomalies of the tropical Pacific since the start of the Reynolds OI.v2 satellite-enhanced sea surface temperature dataset in November 1981. The models are represented by the multi-model ensemble-member mean of the climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive, which was used by the IPCC for their 5th assessment report. (Figure 1 is from the post Maybe the IPCC’s Modelers Should Try to Simulate Earth’s Oceans. See that post for further information.) According to the most current generation of climate models—the latest and greatest climate models—if manmade greenhouse gases warmed the sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific, they should have warmed about 0.58 deg C over the past 32+ years, based on the linear trend. But the observed sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific show little warming in 32+ years.
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When/if a large or super El Niño forms, you know the usual suspects will try to link it to global warming/climate change. It is as certain as the sun rising in the morning.
So, readers are invited to create statements/headlines that they think are likely to appear in the media, and when we get a hit on one of those, we’ll refer back to this WUWT article and point out that it was expected, but there’s just no linkage.
My contribution is:
Trenberth told us that heat hiding in the ocean would jump out and burn us in the future, and he was right!
Happy headlining!
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“Pause” fades like a mirage as el Nino in the Pacific brings global warming back with a vengeance. “
Amr marzouk says: “Will examin the entrails of the next goat I sacrifice and get back to you.”
Good idea! But don’t you need a Haruspex Certificate from UEA to do that? 🙂
goldminor says: “I think that they will be very disappointed by the end of the summer.”
In which case, the headlines will read: “Unprecedented Micro El Nino Proves Global Warming Theory, Scientists Say.”
Data Soong says: “…Bush to Blame.”
Good one, Soong!
here’s my prediction for El Niño this year:
nada
Gore grounded – El Nino wipes out Gore Effect.
The hot spot is now a wet spot!
Don’t forget for all the headlines: women and minorities hardest hit!
Bill Nye predicts that trade winds will blow…I don’t know…just guessing…North to South?
See his Trade Wind explanation at 7:24. Based on his definition of trade winds and placement of the fan, when the winds stopped a Kelvin wave would propagate from East to West. Now that’s science!
El Nino Strikes! Models Less Wrong Now!
‘El Nino returns with a vengeance as unprecedented storms batter the West. Leading scientists say “We told you so.” and warn that this is just the beginning unless extreme measures are taken to reduce CO2 emissions to pre-industrial revolution levels.’
• Dangerous warming is here!
• Head for the hills!
• The 2nd hottest year evaaaaah!
• The world is hotting up.
• We must act now! It’s all for the grandchildren.
• Climate change makes El Ninos stronger.
• Scientists see worrying signs of global warming.
Anchovies extinct, Kelvin waves goodbye.
Carbon Pollution Giving Viagra to El Nino
Worcester sauce no more, El Nino fried breakfast just doesn’t taste the same.
“Missing heat lunges from ocean. Swallows last remaining denier!”
Yeah, I don’t think we are going to see a large/strong El Nino which leaves lasting remnants for some time. And I am talking like between 2035-2045 before we do …will it really matter what they say at that point?
We might see an El Nino, but I doubt it will be that large and it will probably be bookend by rather large La Nina events which leave them hesitant to say too much.
So my headline prediction goes more along the lines of
“After many false starts, is the next Super El Nino developing?”
And I think we might even see a “missed/failed predictions” mention being a possibility
Well, I for one wouldn’t mind a strong El Nino. We could use some rain here in the western US.
It’s much worse than we thought.
It’s much, much worse than we thought.
It’s worse than we ever imagined.
The Earth has a fever.
Temperature overshoots IPCC projections.
El Nino was called off on at the end of the year. At first it was called an EN “condition” which attracted funding, so they could “monitor its progress”. Then at the end of the year, in hindsight, if it eventuated it got itself redefined as an EN “episode”. If nothing, it was called an EN “fizzer”, which was technically still an EN “condition” to protect their earlier prediction. That is why ENs can be cool, hot, wet or dry. But EN never caused anything, any more than an inquest can cause an accident. It is merely a descriptive report. But nowadays we have prospect of El Nino ‘causing’ all manner of things, droughts, heat waves, bush fires, global warming etc. Funny how money inflates imaginations. As for cyclones, they seem to form closer to the equator during ENs and their frequency is suppressed. We don’t see that happening at the moment.
TomR,Worc,MA,USA says: “Maybe with this one they will start naming them, like the ridiculous practice of the weather channel naming snowstorms.”
And when a super El Nino is predicted and it fails to form, we can call in Hansen….in honor of James Hansen who kept predicting super El Ninos and none formed.
Global warming resumes with a vengeance.
Natural Variability Causes Global Warming. Mankind Must Adapt Again!
Nah. That’s Just Wishful Thinking.
Not just a Super El Nino, this will be the the first in a series of “EXTREME” El Nino.
“hidden heat says BOO!”