Bob Tisdale recently took some of the early wailers to task over the expected El Niño this year, saying:
I knew it wouldn’t take long. The 2014/15 El Niño has yet to form and there’s already a well-commented blog post about it that spreads more speculative nonsense than one would think possible.
So, I thought it might be time to do some forecasting of our own. First, some basics,
From Tisdales recent article, we have this graph showing another model vs. reality divergence.
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NOTHING IN THE INSTRUMENT TEMPERATURE RECORD INDICATES ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING HAS HAD ANY IMPACT ON THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC IN 32+ YEARS
El Niño events take place in the tropical Pacific. Figure 1 is a model-data comparison of the sea surface temperature anomalies of the tropical Pacific since the start of the Reynolds OI.v2 satellite-enhanced sea surface temperature dataset in November 1981. The models are represented by the multi-model ensemble-member mean of the climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive, which was used by the IPCC for their 5th assessment report. (Figure 1 is from the post Maybe the IPCC’s Modelers Should Try to Simulate Earth’s Oceans. See that post for further information.) According to the most current generation of climate models—the latest and greatest climate models—if manmade greenhouse gases warmed the sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific, they should have warmed about 0.58 deg C over the past 32+ years, based on the linear trend. But the observed sea surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific show little warming in 32+ years.
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When/if a large or super El Niño forms, you know the usual suspects will try to link it to global warming/climate change. It is as certain as the sun rising in the morning.
So, readers are invited to create statements/headlines that they think are likely to appear in the media, and when we get a hit on one of those, we’ll refer back to this WUWT article and point out that it was expected, but there’s just no linkage.
My contribution is:
Trenberth told us that heat hiding in the ocean would jump out and burn us in the future, and he was right!
Happy headlining!
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It’s worse than we thought.
Obama’s plan next vacation.
Maybe with this one they will start naming them, like the ridiculous practice of the weather channel naming snowstorms.
Does anyone know how to say “The death of skepticism” in latin?
/sarc
“It rain’d all night the day I left, The weather it was dry, The sun so hot I frose to death; Susanna, don’t you cry.”
The Global Warming Musical
First, it will not be big or super anything (men…they always think things are bigger than they are). What counts is overall column heat. And this will be nothing to get all twitterpated over. The lead up (and ain’t it the truth ladies) is that this will be the biggest El Nino EVA and caused by human hands!!!!! But when it is finally revealed, it will leave us La Nina’s pointing and laughing.
Sad.
But true.
Based on my belief that the sun, not CO2, warms the tropical oceans, and because solar output has been declining, and as expected the upper 700 meters of the ocean have cooled since 2003, I do no expect to see an El Nino that increases global temperature (unless heavily adjusted) above the 1997-98 event. I would guess any warming would be less than the 2010 event.
Believing CO2 is driver of ocean warming, Hansen bet on a 2006 Super El Nino that never materialized and I suspect speculation of another Super El Nino is just more wishful thinking by alarmists hoping that nature will eventually support their worst fears. http://www.abqjournal.com/news/metro/449795metro04-08-06.htm
Will examin the entrails of the next goat I sacrifice and get back to you.
“Wheres the Heat???? RIGHT HERE and to STAY”
One of the warmers on a website I frequent likes to call everything “Unprecedented”, I suspect he will drag that line out.
The pause-in-global-warming that never happened is now over ( and it’s worse than we thought).
Jim, of course the Sun heats the oceans. But the miniscule amount of solar change that you speak of cannot, CANNOT be detected in ocean heat anomaly measures. You do understand that of course.
… future El Niño headlines …
1) Super El Niño signals tipping point in battle against Global Warming
2) Killer El Niño signals Climate Scientists were right
3) CO2 caused Monster El Niño to cause boiling hot summer
Its a thermageddon el nino folks , it came from the deep and wil fry us all.
…So, readers are invited to create statements/headlines that they think are likely to appear in the media…
I think that we should encourage them. I’m sure that, in the heat(pun alert!) of the moment, there will be a lot of exaggerated predictions made. We should get people to nail their predictions to the mast, and stake their reputations on this ‘resumption of heating’ continuing.
That will give us ammunition for another 10 years…
1) The Beginning of The End
2) Trenberth’s Heat Bites Back
3) Pause? What Pause?
Near future: the end is nigh, warming expected to come back with a vengeance
Later: warming returning just as predicted, scientists right all along
Later still: earth’s temperature unprecedented
Skeptic headline: pause continues unabated
Climate Lies News Agency ;
July 2014
SUPER EL NINO FIRST SIGN OF AN OVERHEATING CLIMATE
Scientists say that their models are showing the present super El Nino will be the first of an increasing series of El Ninos that will be hotter than any previous El Nino’s on record. These super El Ninos will release the heat that has been accumulating in the deepest parts of the oceans during the last 20 years.
Scientists say that their models are showing this will lead to rapidly increasing global temperatures within the next 20 or 30 years . Their models also tell them that the the higher temperatures will be devastating to —-blah blah blah!
Zombie El Nino Attacks Global Warming Pause
I think that they will be very disappointed by the end of the summer.
Global warming causes wave of El Nino refugees from Mexico
Killer Heat from the Ocean… Temp rise of 0.03 was devastating… Sea level rises… wait! sea level falls due to Antarctic ice build up.
A) First named El Nino Godzilla has surfaced from hiding in the deep ocean!
B) Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming Super El Nino Godzilla to destroy California! (with much needed beneficial rain)
C) Hansens’ pipeline of heat hiding in the deep oceans boils eastern Pacific! It’s SO MUCH worse than we thought!
Children will not know what snow looks like.
Boiling Pacific Brings Most Sizzling Conditions Earth Has Seen Since the Formation of the Universe: Bush to Blame
jim Steele says:
April 12, 2014 at 3:11 pm
I am with Jim on this one. Lower atmosphere cloud formation has increased and reflected heat in conjunction with a reduction in solar wind will allow further cooling of the upper levels of the ocean currents. Moderate El Nina at best, but even that is in question as the warm pool is not that big and not that warm. The recharge is weak.
Time will tell.