Links to documents follow.
Not so much fanfare now, since leaks pretty much revealed earlier that it’s alarmism on steroids. The always dependably worrisome Seth Borenstein, AP’s science reporter, sums up the alarmism quite well with this tweet:
IPCC report: Warming harms dialed up to new level as world in for wild climate ride, 'we're sitting ducks'; http://t.co/KRIgBFqRGT
— @borenbears (@borenbears) March 31, 2014
I note Dr. Richard Tol’s name is not on it, as he said it was too alarmist.
The Working Group II contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report considers the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems, the observed impacts and future risks of climate change, and the potential for and limits to adaptation. The chapters of the report assess risks and opportunities for societies, economies, and ecosystems around the world.
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Headline Statements from the Summary for Policymakers *
Observed Changes in the Climate System
Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850. In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence).
Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence). It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (0–700 m) warmed from 1971 to 2010, and it likely warmed between the 1870s and 1971.
Over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass, glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide, and Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover have continued to decrease in extent (high confidence).
The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia
(high confidence). Over the period 1901 to 2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m.
The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. Carbon dioxide concentrations have increased by 40% since pre-industrial times, primarily from fossil fuel emissions and secondarily from net land use change emissions. The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean acidification.
Drivers of Climate Change
Understanding the Climate System and its Recent Changes
Climate models have improved since the AR4. Models reproduce observed continental-scale surface temperature patterns and trends over many decades, including the more rapid warming since the mid-20th century and the cooling immediately following large volcanic eruptions (very high confidence).
Observational and model studies of temperature change, climate feedbacks and changes in the Earth’s energy budget together provide confidence in the magnitude of global warming in response to past and future forcing.
Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes. This evidence for human influence has grown since AR4. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.
Future Global and Regional Climate Change
Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850 to 1900 for all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. It is likely to exceed 2°C for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, and more likely than not to exceed 2°C for RCP4.5. Warming will continue beyond 2100 under all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. Warming will continue to exhibit interannual-to-decadal variability and will not be regionally uniform.
Changes in the global water cycle in response to the warming over the 21st century will not be uniform. The contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase, although there may be regional exceptions.
The global ocean will continue to warm during the 21st century. Heat will penetrate from the surface to the deep ocean and affect ocean circulation.
It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin and that Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover will decrease during the 21st century as global mean surface temperature rises. Global glacier volume will further decrease.
Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century. Under all RCP scenarios, the rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed that observed during 1971 to 2010 due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets.
Climate change will affect carbon cycle processes in a way that will exacerbate the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere (high confidence). Further uptake of carbon by the ocean will increase ocean acidification.
Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond. Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped. This represents a substantial multi-century climate change commitment created by past, present and future emissions of CO2.
* Headline statements are the overarching highlighted conclusions of the approved Summary for Policymakers which, taken together, provide a concise narrative. The four statements in boxes here are those summarizing the assessment in the Summary for Policymakers, sections B-E.
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The Summary for Policymakers is available here and the unedited accepted Final Draft Report is available here.
Hilarious, in the daily mail a report on what will be effected, it says cities will become warmer than the surrounding countryside.
Some cites are up to 10f higher than the countryside anyway- utter madness.
I would have thought this alone would make most normal people see the whole report for the junk it is.
The guy who wrote that line must be the biggest idiot in history.
@ur momisugly various… I didn’t comment on the content of WGII because I haven’t yet read through ~2600 pages of the summary for policymakers and the main report.
It seemed an obvious point. I’m just impressed so many of you have.
Mkelley says:
March 30, 2014 at 7:35 pm
And here in Montana, it keeps snowing and snowing and snowing…
And they will be holding a press conference in Bismarck, ND later today.
“It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin and that Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover will decrease during the 21st century as global mean surface temperature rises”
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http://www.arctic-info.com/ExpertOpinion/Page/-the-need-for-icebreakers-will-increase-after-the-year-2016-
“The need for icebreakers will increase after the year 2016……….. For this reason, especially in the summer, there has been an increase in the need for icebreakers on the Northern Sea Route.
The resources of the nuclear ship Sovetsky Soyuz are not currently in use because it has been held in reserve for 6 years. When put into operation, it will be able to work until 2024-2025. Speaking of the schedule for taking icebreakers out of service, we are not including the icebreaker 50 Let Pobedy, which only entered into service in 2007; it has long-term prospects, no earlier than 2030”
So we can’t foresee the weather next month, but we know as fact how the entire planet will develop over the next 86 years and that with computer models that can’t even confirm past development, despite having all the data?
If this nonsense wasn’t aimed at destroying human civilization, it would be actually quite funny.
charles nelson says:
“…alarmist stories were always planted during a spell of warm or even hot weather…
…in spite of all this PR talent, the Alarmist’s momentum is fading. Facts are getting in the way, the public perceptions are changing…CAGW is a tired product which cannot be rebranded. You can’t scare people twice with the same old nonsense…”
Exactly. The climate hysterics have lost the argument, despite having ALL the vast resources of western governments behind them.
One of the things I have noticed is the amazing drop in the level of Readers Comments about this subject in various online publications. Take today’s Guardian for example. In spite of this report being headlined everywhere, page after page of readers “recommends” (supporting AGW) total less than 8. There used to be hundreds, and sometimes thousands of recommends for pro-AGW items. Tellingly, one of the highest recommends (38, so far) was the comment that the Guardian should censor all the so-called “denier” comments. That’ll “save the planet” eh?
The stock radio news report this morning, source CNN I think, was:
“Worse than originally predicted. Global warming has resumed again, after a short hiatus, except in some places of cooling. It will get very hot and doom, death and destruction ….”
The IPCC mentions warming since 1850 AND the 1950s. Why not just mention 1850? For a little more insight see the the following previous thread.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/03/29/when-did-anthropogenic-global-warming-begin/
They mention that sea levels are rising! Sea levels have been on a rising trend for thousands of years. Why state the obvious? Because no acceleration in the rate of sea level rise has been adequately detected this century or late last century. But the glaciers are melting they say. That has been going on since the end of the Little Ice Age. Always look at each of their claims with an eye on the past.
UH-ho urban heat islands are predicted. Run for the hills!
The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority doesn’t seem to think disaster is imminent……….
Environmental conditions
February 2014
Conditions on the Great Barrier Reef remain neutral according to the Bureau of Meteorology:
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is within the neutral range, indicating neither drought nor wet season generally associated with El Niño or La Niña conditions. This is set to continue throughout autumn 2014.
Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have generally been near average.
A near average level of cyclone activity (four cyclones in eastern Australia) is forecast for this season. So far two tropical cyclones (tropical cyclone Dylan and tropical cyclone Edna) have occurred in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park.
An average rainfall season is forecast for most of eastern Australian from February to April 2014.
Flood plumes will be influenced by the level of rainfall received in the Great Barrier Reef catchment area – since October 2013 the catchment has experienced a low to average level of rainfall, a pattern set to continue until March 2014.
Our table of observations and forecasts provides more detailed information. Reef health monitoring is ramped up over this time to keep an eye on the marine environment.
Coral reef health reports
Together with the Queensland Parks and Wildlife Service and the Eye on the Reef monitoring network, we’ve carried out 489 reef health and impact surveys across 54 reefs on the Great Barrier Reef since 1 December 2013.
Most (79 per cent) of these surveys were completed in the Cairns-Cooktown region, and the majority of the remainder in the Mackay-Capricorn region.
Of all the surveys, 56 per cent recorded healthy coral reefs with no impacts, 30 per cent had one type of impact and another 14 per cent recorded more than one impact.
Predation (mainly by crown-of-thorns starfish) was seen in 34 per cent of the surveys.
Some signs of coral stress, such as low-level coral bleaching and disease, were also evident in three per cent of surveys. Signs of low level coral damage could be seen in approximately 19 per cent of surveys.
In most cases the damage was attributed to anchors, marine animals or adverse weather conditions.
Initial reports indicate only low levels of minor damage to coral reefs as a result of tropical cyclones Dylan and Edna.
We are continuing to assess the impact, however neither cyclone is expected to have caused any significant damage.
Anyone reading WUWT with an ability to be in Vienna in late April can attend emcsr 2014 http://emcsr.net/general-information/ and listen to the intentions of how to use cybernetics and a systems thinking focus in education as a “means for mastering the current transformation” and guiding history.
If physical science does not perform as policy makers wish, the social and behavioral sciences can still try to alter behavior so that we are all forced to adapt anyway. Especially our children.
This is how your frame the issue if you want to be alarmist – cherry pick to hell. Now here are a few things they left out.
• Glaciers have been shrinking BEFORE the “last two decades” (soot helps too)
• Greenland experienced faster rates of melt earlier in the 20th century.
• Antarctica is at near record sea ice extent according to NASA.
• Antarctica has been gaining surface ice mass over past 150 years.
• Winter snow extent in the Northern Hemisphere has been on an upward trend since 1967. Fall up too.
Here is an example of why you must look at alternative explanations to their desired claims.
Grrrrr. I meant.
“This is how you frame…”
We struggle to measure sea levels today with satellite and all but they manage to know the rates before the “mid-19th century”.
Is it just melting ice that causes contributes to sea level rise?
Groundwater abstraction is about “one fourth of the current rate of sea level rise of 3.3 mm per year.”
Here is the paper’s abstract [published in October 2010].
We can all cherry pick what we want. It is the season after all.
The IPCC needs to urgently get in touch with the authors of the following paper to correct their graphic which shows co2 at ~425 ppm around 12,750 years ago.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.02.003
http://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0277379113000553-gr7.jpg
Hockey Schtick – March 19, 2013
“New paper finds CO2 spiked to levels higher than the present during termination of last ice age”
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/03/new-paper-finds-co2-levels-were-higher.html
Is there a trend in when these IPCC reports get published?
Are they all published at the onset of or during northern hemisphere summer?
sea level rise, one by one you can take these things apart.
“One hundred years ago, the region’s two big rivers—the Mississippi and the Atchafalaya—dumped some 500 million tons of land-replenishing sediments onto the Delta every year. Today about half the rivers’ sediment load never reaches the Delta. Instead, it settles behind thousands of dams and levees or is channeled by those levees far out into the Gulf of Mexico.
Jimbo says:
March 31, 2014 at 5:57 am
http://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0277379113000553-gr7.jpg
——————-
and,Jimbo, do i read this correct , on the right hand side an increase in organic content at 425 ppm.
Admin Said:
[criticism is easy, anyone can do it. How many did you read in the same amount of time, anonymous person? – mod]
He isn’t telling everyone what he thinks about the new report without having read it properly. If he was, then you might have a point, but as it is, his point still stands.
Writing off a report you haven’t read is not a good example of scientific thinking.
Dr. Burns –
sadly, the heading re “EMERGING risks,EMERGING consensus” at The Conversation, wasn’t at all mirrored in the text by the three CAGW advocate authors:
31 March: The Conversation: Climate change and health: IPCC reports emerging risks, emerging consensus
Disclosure Statement
Anthony McMichael receives funding from The National Health and Medical Research Council. He is affiliated with The Climate Institute.
Colin Butler receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is co-director of the NGO Benevolent Organisation for Development, Health and Insight.
Helen Louise Berry receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council and the Australian Research Council. She is a member of the Australian Labor Party.
http://theconversation.com/climate-change-and-health-ipcc-reports-emerging-risks-emerging-consensus-24213
The oceans are alkaline.
While the contrast may decrease. Here are the all important OBSERVATIONS in our ever warming world. Remember they have told us that the warming last century was hot and alarming.
Observations V Speculation.
drumphil says:
March 31, 2014 at 6:10 am
Admin Said:
[criticism is easy, anyone can do it. How many did you read in the same amount of time, anonymous person? – mod]
He isn’t telling everyone what he thinks about the new report without having read it properly. If he was, then you might have a point, but as it is, his point still stands.
Writing off a report you haven’t read is not a good example of scientific thinking.
____________________
He’s known to come here and take shots at the readership and got called on it, by several people, yet again. I think most here can figure out his point. What’s your point?
The IPCC was never about science, but rather was and is an ideology using just the appearance of science to fool people. They latched onto a 20-year warming period from the late 70’s to late 90’s, and conflated it with the warmup since the LIA. They had to build in convoluted excuses for the cooling period from roughly the 40’s through 70’s, aeorosols and volcanoes being their favorite fudge factors. Then reality threw a monkey wrench into the Alarmists’ works. What happened to the warming? Have no fear, they said, it will recommence soon with even more vigor, just you wait and see. Well, it’s been some 17 years or more now, and we’re still waiting. They had to double down on the excuses then, making up more and more bizarre ones, such as that it was hiding deep in the oceans. With reality now going more and more against them, showing they never really had science on their side to begin with, they had to double down on the “certainty” claim, as well as the alarmism about the future. That’s all they’ve done with this latest “report”, simply ramping up their “certainty” and their alarmism. Because, when the facts aren’t on your side, yell and scream louder. Well, it’s worked before anyway.
JustAnotherPoster says:
March 31, 2014 at 4:23 am
Is it wrong to hope for a massive volcano to go off this year, in the middle of no where, just so that the temperatures start dropping significantly ?
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Quote: “4.8 earthquake rocks US Yellowstone National Park”
“A 4.8 magnitude quake rocked Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming near the border with Montana, the US Geological Survey said. There were several aftershocks with a magnitude over 3. The earthquake occurred 37 kilometers northeast of West Yellowstone, Montana at 6:34 am local time (1234 GMT) Sunday. The quake was centered almost in the middle of Yellowstone National Park, near the Norris Geyser Basin, said Peter Cervelli, a spokesman for the USGS Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, NBC News reported.
(…)
Yellowstone National park, North America’s largest volcanic field, is the home to a caldera, sometimes referred to as the Yellowstone Supervolcano. Due to the volcanic and tectonic nature of the region, the caldera experiences 1 to 20 earthquakes every day, according to Yellowstone observatory. However they are very weak often measuring much less than magnitude 3.
The quake on Sunday was the most powerful to hit the park since 1985. In the fall of 1985 in the northwest rim of the caldera during a three-month period of increased earthquake activity over 3000 events of magnitude 0 to 4.9 were recorded by seismologists.
Geologists are closely monitoring the rise of the Yellowstone Plateau. The upward movement of the Yellowstone caldera floor between 2004 and 2008 was almost 3 inches (about 7 cm) each year, according to a University of Utah scientists report in the journal Science in November 2008. That was more than three times greater than ever observed since such measurements began in 1923.
“Our best evidence is that the crustal magma chamber is filling with molten rock,” said seismologist Robert B. Smith, lead author of the study and professor of geophysics at the University of Utah.”
http://rt.com/news/yellowstone-national-park-earthquake-225/
You may want to be careful what you wish for, JAP – because you might get it…
“Writing off a report you haven’t read is not a good example of scientific thinking.”
On the other hand, I don’t have to read Mein Kampf to know that it is a pernicious and wicked document.