By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
The circumpolar vortex has put this season into the record-books. The United States has just gone through its coldest interequinoctial winter (equinox to equinox) in a century. Hat-tip to CFACT, which has just sent me the graph.
The last U.S. winter colder than this one was in 1911/12, before the First World War.
Thank you, America! Most of Britain has had an unusually mild and wet winter, for you have had more than your fair share of the Northern Hemisphere’s cold weather this season.
Global warming? What global warming?
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[i]rogerknights on March 26, 2014 at 5:08 pm
The United States has just gone through its coldest interequinoctial winter in a century.
I’d insert “(Dec. 21 thru March 21)” (or whatever) before “winter.”
REPLY: I did that briefly, then realized your suggestion was dead wrong based on the definition of interequinoctial.
Do try to limit your suggestions to correct ones. Thanks, Anthony[/i]
It seems interesting that this commenter would get skewered for suggesting this clarification and be told that his suggestion is dead wrong, when in fact the use of a much more common term has been used incorrectly: winter. Winter does not extend from equinox to equinox by any standard definition, astronomical, ecological or meteorological reckoning.
Yep – been a cold winter. Unusually so, but not abnormally so. We still have snow on the ground from the Dec 2 storms, which is unusual for Calgary. Usually during winter we get Chinooks that warm us far above freezing and often remove most snow and ice. Most years our wet spring snows in March and April fall on bare grass, not old ice.
Point is, the average temperature, whether globally or regionally or locally, really doesn’t mean very much for the same reason that sea ice year to year is meaningless. The planetary temperature control system works on longer time scales than year to year, or even decade to decade. Occasional peaks and dips don’t make a trend in either direction.
However, it is important to note that IF the CO2 situation was as important as alarmists want us to believe, it would NOT be possible for us to be matching lows from a century ago. Period.
Here’s the sub zero data from my home in New Hampshire. (Celcius users, this is about -18°C, not a very round number. -20°C is -4°F, I assume that means cold to some of you.)
The NWS forecast for tomorrow [I wrote this on March23] AM here is -1F. My guess is we’re not going to make it because they’re not forecasting calm winds. The latest in the season I’ve recorded a subzero temp was March 10 (2005), so it will be neat if we do go below zero.
Past seasons and number of subzero days:
03/04: 14 (11! in a frigid January, 3 in mid February.)
04/05: 12
05/06: 2
06/07: 8 (year 2006 had no subzero low, 2007 had 4 in March)
07/08: 3 (2 in January, 1 in February, normalcy!)
08/09: 9 (-17.5F on January 16th, brr.)
09/10: 1 (and that was -0.8F on January 30th)
10/11: 9
11/12: 3 (all in January)
12/13: 3 (all in January)
13/14: 15 (1 in December, 6 in January, 4 in February, 4 in March (so far!))
The high tomorrow should be about 24. Lows on either side of that should be around 5. I.e. colder than an average January day. Yeah, I think I’m ready for a little spring. Past March 24ths:
Tomorrow’s [March 24] high will be colder than most of those lows!
Phil predicted this. http://www.groundhog.org
Maybe he could help with the models.
See also:
2nd Coldest U.S. Winter in 35 Years by Roy Spencer, PhD, March 3rd, 2014
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/03/2nd-coldest-u-s-winter-in-35-years/
If things continue over the next several Winters as they were this past Winter (not altogether “past” yet in the upper Midwest), Anthony may have to add an addendum to the Global Sea Ice Page called the “Great Lakes Ice Page”. It is nearly April and the Great Lakes still have something on the order of 75% Ice Cover, with Lake Superior still close to 100%!
I thought Lake Superior was supposed to be the one that warmed the fastest due to Global Warming…. guess that was an incorrect prediction by the Warmunists…
Monckton didn’t mention this
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/a-cold-u.s.-winter-for-sure-but-8th-warmest-globally-17196
Retired Engineer John,
If next winter is not as bad, it will be the result of Climate Change.
Just a graph, no source of any meaning given of course (CFACT is the hidden Exxon lobby in…. Europe!), about a whopping 2% of earth’s surface. That wouldn’t be too global, would it now.
Equinox to equinox globally was, of course, ‘hot’.
Well, yes, Chuck, at 8:29, as discussed recently here on this blog, all those UHI induced night-time readings are driving up average temperatures, aren’t they?
Kampen says:
“Just a graph…”
And what have you got? You’ve got nothing.
chuck says:
Monckton didn’t mention this
Thanx for the ClimateCentral nonsense, chuck. But it is both false and meaningless, since temps in the 1930’s were warmer than now.
Here’s a current hockey stick chart that may interest you.
It may be just weather, but when I see a chart like that I note the full effect of the swing from elevated the prior year to the extent of the fall in the latest year. There are very few if any swings like that on the chart. It reminds me of the degree of swing in the WUWT reference page chart for the recent plunge in the AMO. Also, we’ll see how Europe fares in that 60 year AMO cycle change along with the regional effects of the solar cycle demise on jet stream pattern and strength.
Bob Turner says:
March 26, 2014 at 5:12 pm
Interesting that an English (UKIP) politician equates ‘US’ with ‘global’ !
Let’s face it, it was your Wisconsinan ice sheet that caused all the trouble during the last glaciation.
Holy cow, can you imagine how much colder then the record from a century ago it would be right now without the very clear and 97% undeniable co2 fingerprint in the data?? We would have beaten the record by what? .5-1 degree or so??
Maybe the world is still in the mini iceage, we just dont realize it because of all the global warming. which would explain the “faux pause”. The earths temp is actually trending down into the depths of an iceage, but the clear power of co2 has over ridden it. This winter probably tells us we need to REALLY ramp up co2 production to continue to try to outpace the looming iceage.
I think this proves we are saving the planet from the big freeze. I should probably get a research grant for this.
(this was of course my weak attempt at humor, LOL)
@ur momisugly dbstealey says: March 27, 2014 at 9:01 am
If history repeats itself we may get lucky and get warm again for a short period if time like in the 1950’s before we sink back to 1970’s cold or worse.
Best Regards
period of time like
Severe WX Awareness Week in Iowa coming to an end:
http://www.decorahnewspapers.com/Content/News/Local-News/Article/March-24-28-Severe-Weather-Awareness-week/2/10/33784
“Could it be that the models have a problem?”
Anything’s possible, Jimbo, but I suspect it’s more likely that they’re lying through their teeth.
We just had dinner with my father-in-law over the weekend, and he said pretty much the same thing, that this was the worst winter he could remember in his 93 year lifetime; and his memories include a particularly nasty winter that he spent outside with the rest of his 2nd Infantry Division, frequently without the benefit of a tent or even a blanket during all of that “unpleasantness” in the forests of Ardennes and Hurtgen during the winter of 1944/45.
For those of you in the US, your area’s NWS site may have something like this.
It doesn’t directly support or refute what Monckton has said since it is not the entire US and the time frames are different. It is also not a reference to a season’s “coldness” but it is interesting.
Days below zero °F
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/climo/below0.php
Snow
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/climo/snowrankings.php
Kampen, I think the folks at CFACT would take serious issue with you regarding any such relationship of CFACT with ExxonMobil, whom CFACT has identified as one of the Big Oil companies actively supporting alarmists (along with Shell and BP).
What wws says: about the LIV’s (low information voters) is so dead on. I think you should write an article about it. It is so hard for me to hear my lovely sister say, “Those tea partiers shut down the government and hurt all those people who needed help.” It springs from such a place of goodness in her yet is so very wrong on so many levels….she is the same way on climate. You can’t reach them with facts they honestly do not want to be bothered, but they want to be “good.” So people like me are left speechless and for the most part helpless. We are losing to the LIVs and need more solutions which is what wws proposes. Thank you.
ww is correct, and there needs to be an effort made to counteract the propaganda from the warmists…but it is hugely distasteful. My personal motivation is seeking the truth. From my perspective in Alaska, I can see that our normal cold has been displaced to the Lower 48. The time period is too short and the information too regional to be discussing climate change…yet those with an agenda that allows them to lie and mislead regarding CO2 will not hesitate to spin every bit of unusual seasonal warmth into their false narrative regarding CAGW. This is a tough position for an idealist to be in.
All I know is that it was flippin’ cold here in southern Michigan this winter. In fact, it’s still flippin’ cold! 4 degrees F yesterday AM when I set off for work in the AM, on March 26th!