By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Seventeen and a half years. Not a flicker of global warming. The RSS satellite record, the first of the five global-temperature datasets to report its February value, shows a zero trend for an impressive 210 months. Miss Brevis, send a postcard to Mr Gore:
Why did none of the vaunted models predict this long hiatus, stasis, pause, halt, rest, interval, intermission, break, time out, vacation, furlough, gap, plateau, or flat spot?
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HenryP says:
March 13, 2014 at 10:51 am
That video was addressed to Robert regarding his comment “I have been a confirmed skeptic on CAGW since the catastrophism changed from the disastrous coming “ice age”, and I was skeptical about that.”
This next one is for you Henry.
http://youtu.be/w5hs4KVeiAU
[trimmed]
[Do not submit video links without a description of that video’s content. Mod]
Henry@Whittemore
I don’t see the relevance of your video’s to me pinpointing exactly where we are in the Gleissberg solar/weather cycle.
You also still do not understand how we all figured out that the net effect of more CO2 is not causing any extra warming. We can see that from the development of minimum temperatures. If you look at the AR4 in 2007 you will acually find that they actually show / admit that the night temperatures (minima) have not been increasing, but they give a lame excuse for it. The mechanism of the GH effect implies that minima should be rising faster, pushing up the mean temperature. That is not happening, at all……..
\
hence my final report on this
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/04/29/the-climate-is-changing/
Due to the natural climate change (of the Gleissberg cycle) , more droughts will be coming
at the >[40] latitudes.
WHAT MUST WE DO?
We urgently need to develop and encourage more agriculture at lower latitudes, like in Africa and/or South America. This is where we can expect to find warmth and more rain during a global cooling period.
We need to warn the farmers living at the higher latitudes (>40) who already suffered poor crops due to the droughts that things are not going to get better there for the next few decades. It will only get worse as time goes by.
We also have to provide more protection against more precipitation at certain places of lower latitudes (FLOODS!), <[30] latitude, especially around the equator.
HenryP on March 13, 2014 at 11:47 pm
I have linked three videos to you, the first one was about cherry picking, the second explained the cause of increased sea ice in Antarctica and the third shows that the past temperature of the earth was governed by the amount of co2 in the atmosphere. My point is that even with the 90-year Gleissberg and ∼200-year de Vries cycles http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL053624/abstract increased co2 is putting more energy into the system.
M.Whittemore says
co2 is putting more energy into the system.
Henry says
I wish it were possible, I am sure that more people would wish to have more of such a miracle substance. Unfortunately co2 is only a gas and it has only increased by about 0.01% in the atmosphere over the past 50 years or so. There is no mass for it to do what you claim it does?
In any case, you have not understood the very basics of the GH effect and you have not provided a balance sheet of each GHG, i.e. how much it cools and how much it warms http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2011/08/11/the-greenhouse-effect-and-the-principle-of-re-radiation-11-aug-2011/
we know that there are giga tons and giga ons of bicarbonates in the oceans:
Anyone who knows a little bit of chemistry knows that by warming the water you remove CO2 from it? So there is what we call a causal relationship. More warming causes more CO2.
(more) heat + HCO3- => (more) CO2 +OH-
The truth has been turned around: More warming causes more CO2!!!
The other way around has, i.e. that more CO2 causes more warming has not been proven.
This is the last time I will be speaking with you Henry, your comments are becoming ramblings of unscientific and untested opinions pushed as facts.
https://www.skepticalscience.com/empirical-evidence-for-co2-enhanced-greenhouse-effect-advanced.htm
You choose to willfully dismiss all tested and proven science, so maybe mythbusters might be more to your level of intellect.
Michael, please do yourself a favor and stop trying to think that somehow you’re a scientist.
You cannot tell the difference between conjecture about how anthropogenic CO2 really, really should cause catastrophic global climate effects (the conjecture that has failed), and the empirical evidence, or lack thereof, that has demonstrated this failure.
I’m not even going to go back to my comments where I was trying to help you. Your responses are not just sh!t science, but are actually sh!t exercises in the English language too.
You’re like the guitarist in the Spinal Tap movie “These go to 11”.
Michael Whittemore,
OK, I read your link above. All of it. I didn’t want to, but I did in order to try and understand where you’re coming from. Your link has lots of assertions like this:
“A number of studies have used a variety of statistical and physical approaches to determine the contribution of greenhouse gases and other effects…”
That is typical anti-science from “SkepticalScience”. They use ‘studies’ as their Authority. But the real world flatly contradicts those ‘studies’.
You appear to be a hopeless True Believer. The world is filled with your kind of religious acolytes, but fortunately your numbers are dwindling fast — due in no small part to the fact that Planet Earth refuses to do what you endlessly predict.
Either the planet is right, or you are right. But you cannot both be right. The planet is decisively falsifying your cAGW nonsense. So who should we believe? Planet Earth? Or you?
I believe the real world. IMHO, that makes you a deluded nutcase.
philincalifornia says:
March 14, 2014 at 10:27 pm
“You cannot tell the difference between conjecture about how anthropogenic CO2 really, really should cause catastrophic global climate effects (the conjecture that has failed), and the empirical evidence, or lack thereof, that has demonstrated this failure.”
This is very vague, do you have some facts?
dbstealey says:
March 15, 2014 at 12:04 am
I am glad that you read the link. Your only point which you make is “The planet is decisively falsifying your cAGW nonsense.”. Can you give some examples of this?
dbstealey says:
March 15, 2014 at 12:04 am
I just noticed your graph regarding CO2 and temperature not correlating. This explains it https://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-temperature-correlation-intermediate.htm
That ‘explains’ nothing; all it does is impotently try to explain away the planet’s debunking of the repeatedly falsified ‘carbon’ scare, something that obviously still terrifies the Chicken Little crowd.
Please stop wasting my time with any more SkS nonsense. The fact is that throughout almost all of recorded history, there has been no correlation whatever between the rise in CO2 and a subsequent rise in temperature.
The only verifiable correlation shows that ∆CO2 is caused by ∆T — not vice-versa. That fact alone debunks the “carbon” scare.
@M. Whttemore
here is the link with information that you should try to understand:
http://joannenova.com.au/2009/12/carbon-rises-800-years-after-temperatures/
What this means is that temperature rises first, then CO2 rises proportionally, both reaching their peaks some 800 years apart. The culprit is the release of CO2 from the ocean via the thermohaline conveyor which cycles surface and deep ocean waters with periods as much as 1600 years. We do know that the deep ocean holds far more CO2 than the atmosphere – by a long shot – so the capability of being responsible for all of the excess CO2 presently in the atmosphere AND MORE is definitely there.
Anyone who knows a little bit of chemistry knows that by warming the water you remove CO2 from it? So there is what we call a causal relationship. More warming causes more CO2.
To put this in a chemical equation:
(more) heat + HCO3- => (more) CO2 (dissolved)+OH-
more (heat) + CO2 (dissolved) => CO2 (g)
dbstealey says:
March 15, 2014 at 3:07 am
It cant be explained any better to you then the link I provided, Volcanic eruptions, la ninas, increased trade winds, reduced solar activity and many other processes, all reduce the temperature of the earth. They all need to be considered when looking at the atmospheric temperature record which only accounts for 2.3% of anthropogenic global warming from man made CO2. Just because you don’t understand the science and cant provide links to peer reviewed papers that back up what you are saying, does not mean we have to take what you say as anything more then an uneducated opinion.
It is amazing how much skeptics get it wrong, its a shame that skeptic blogs have to twist the truth and make up lies to try and prove a point. It means that people like yourself prate the information. Anyway science has shown that due to the earths orbit changing, it causes increased warming in the north that releases CO2 from the oceans. This CO2 then warms the whole plant (global warming). It is all explained here http://www.skepticalscience.com/skakun-co2-temp-lag.html
The recorded climate history of the earth goes back over 500 million years! and yes, they have found that the temperature of the earth is governed by how much CO2 is in the air. I prefer the science to be explained in a video format when dealing with skeptics so here you go http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=w5hs4KVeiAU
27 — The evidence for climate change WITHOUT computer models or the IPCC…: http://youtu.be/OJ6Z04VJDco
Michael Whittemore says:
March 15, 2014 at 12:28 am
philincalifornia says:
March 14, 2014 at 10:27 pm
“You cannot tell the difference between conjecture about how anthropogenic CO2 really, really should cause catastrophic global climate effects (the conjecture that has failed), and the empirical evidence, or lack thereof, that has demonstrated this failure.”
This is very vague, do you have some facts?
——————————–
Indeed I do. They’re up-thread in your posts for all to read and comprehend.
…… that would be all who have a modicum of comprehension skills, which excludes you.
philincalifornia says:
March 15, 2014 at 5:50 am
So still nothing? Good luck with that Phil.
Good luck to you too Michael.
M.Whittemore says
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/03/04/no-global-warming-for-17-years-6-months/#comment-1590594
Henry says
look Michael,
i think all of us have really tried our best to bring arguments towards all that nonsense being sold to you as gospel truth in that particular video, and clearly you have chosen to ignore those arguments as if they did not exist, or, most probably, you did not even read them, “because you know you are right”
Just as an example: the narrator in your video refers back to “tests” that were done 100 years ago by Tyndall and Arrhenius and others. However, they were all done in closed boxes….
So, that only refers to the absoprtion in the 5-20 um of the spectrum of the molecule’s back radiation to earth. In fact, in the case of CO2, there is only absorption in the 14-16 range and it is therefore most conclusively not a “powerful” GHG. What about the absorptions of CO2 in the 0-5 um region where the sun emits and that causes back radiation to space?
If you donot even understand how and why CO2 is also cooling the atmosphere, what can I do?
Perhaps if you were to study the behaviour of ozone, which crazy enough, is also classified as a GHG, you could possibly understand my argument?
I have explained it all in reasonable layman’s terms here
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2011/08/11/the-greenhouse-effect-and-the-principle-of-re-radiation-11-aug-2011/
Good luck to you.
MW says:
“It cant be explained any better to you then the link I provided…”
You do not even understand your own links. In particular, you do not understand what scientific evidence means.
‘Evidence’ is empirical [real world] observations, or measured raw data. Evidence is not pal reviewed papers, or computer models, as you appear to believe.
So, post any evidence you can, showing that X amount of CO2 added to the atmosphere produces Y degrees of global warming. Any such evidence must be measurable and testable.
Everything you have posted up to now amounts to nothing more than baseless assertions. You have decided on the conclusion you want, so you cherry-pick whatever you can find to try and support your preconceived Belief. That, my friend, is not science. That is wishful thinking.
Now you have the opportunity to post what no one else has ever been able to show: specifically measurable, testable causality: how many degrees of global warming is caused by the addition of X amount of “carbon”?
Take your time, because if you can show that empirical measurement, you will be on the short list for a Nobel.
Otherwise, you are just floundering around like all the other climate alarmists who Believe in their own assertions, without any need for that pesky Scientific Method. But it is the Scientific Method — and not your self-serving, Belief-based assertions — that will convince scientific skeptics.
Henry said
I have explained it all in reasonable layman’s terms here
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2011/08/11/the-greenhouse-effect-and-the-principle-of-re-radiation-11-aug-2011/
Good luck to you.
Henry says
I have noticed now that some ad comes in where I referred to the link with the picture in the above blog…. Nevermind all these things (outside people trying to “fix” my blog), I have now put in the whole picture that I was referring to, inside the blog. I don’t think anyone can put a block on that?
Lets recap.. CO2 has been confirmed as a greenhouse gas and the amount of heat it radiates in the atmosphere can be measured. These measurements are then used to calculate how much warming the earth should see from a given amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. To try and best determine the amount of warming that can be expected from increasing CO2, science has looked at past CO2 increases and many other scenarios to determine this value http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics/Climate_Sensitivity_500.jpg
Because we know the amount of heat that is radiated from CO2, we can look back over the last 500 million years worth of climate records and determine if CO2 governed how warm the earth was. When we do this we see that CO2 was over 5000 ppm in the atmosphere 500 million years ago, compared to only 270ppm before the industrial revolution. The earth should have been extremely hot back then but it was not. Science found that the sun was 4% weaker 500 million years ago, and over that time to present, it has gradually increased to its current strength. When science looks at how hot the sun was and how much CO2 was in the atmosphere over the last 500 million years, it is only possible for the earth to be as hot as it was when you consider both the sun and CO2. If you only consider the sun, then the earth would have been an ice ball. http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-higher-in-past-intermediate.htm
Now the question is, are the scientific predictions for antagonistic global warming from man made CO2 being observed, the answer is absolute yes. https://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-temperature-correlation-intermediate.htm
Some key points that everyone should know, only 2.3% of anthropogenic warming goes into the atmosphere, 97% of it goes into the oceans. What this means is, weather events like el ninos/la ninas, volcanic eruptions, ocean heat uptake, solar activity all need to be considered when looking at the atmospheric temperature record. Only then can you minus natural weather to determine how much warming is happening from anthropogenic CO2. http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-cooling-january-2007-to-january-2008-intermediate.htm
I will happily explain anything you like, so please ask away.
Let’s recap:
The major effect of CO2 occurs in the first 20 ppmv of the atmosphere. That is a measurable, testable fact.
As any fool can see, at current concentrations the effect of CO2 is so minuscule that it cannot be measured. It’s effect is simply too small to measure with current technology.
Next, the only correlation anyone has been able to measure shows that changes in CO2 are caused by changes in temperature. But Whittemore ignores cause and effect. He presumes that since changes in CO2 and temperature happen, that T is the cause. But as shown, that is simply not the case.
Effect cannot precede cause, no matter how much people like Whittimore Believe. There is simply no corresponding evidence showing that ∆CO2 is the cause of ∆T. That is a scientifically baseless belief. Thus, the only possible evidence-based conclusion is that temperature drives CO2; not vice-versa. Of course, that destroys the alarmists’ True Belief that “carbon” drives the global climate. There is absolutely zero measurable, testable evidence that it does.
If CO2 was the climate driver claimed by the Carbon Religionists, then this would not be happening. Instead, we would be observing a steadily rising global temperature. But Planet Earth does not agree with the wild-eyed catastrophists. Just the opposite: we have been in an extremely benign global climate for the past century and a half. Contrast the past century and a half with the wild temperature swings during the Holocene. Those T changes happened when CO2 was very low.
So the True Believers will continue to believe, because Belief is an emotion. It is not reason. And that emotion is why the crazies ignore the Scientific Method, the Null Hypothesis, and a multitude of real world observations that debunk their catastrophic AGW belief. They just cannot help themselves. Emotions control them; they are impervious to reason.
As explained before, the only time during my investigations where I did see minimum temperatures (minima) rising was in places where greenery was increasing. An example for this is Las Vegas, where, in a short time, a desert was turned into a lush green paradise. I observed exactly the opposite i.e. minima falling, there where people cut the trees away, as shown here:
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2011/11/10/de-forestation-causes-cooling/
So, in fact, the only (little) bit of AGW that I found in the temp. record is due to people wanting more lawns, more trees and more crops. So natural warming is a natural result of the planet becoming greener. So my question is: what do you want?
Now look at this:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/24/the-earths-biosphere-is-booming-data-suggests-that-co2-is-the-cause-part-2/
More CO2 is better for the environment, because it enables more greenery. Hence the reason why the Dutch tomato growers are adding 1000 ppm CO2 to their greenhouses. It makes their tomatoes bigger.
More CO2 is OK. In fact, more CO2 is better. It is like dung in the air. Believe it.
God is good.
Henry P,
You are correct. CO2 is an airborne fertilizer, directly responsible for the measurable greening of the planet. The increase in CO2 has been entirely beneficial; there is no downside. With one-third of the planet’s population subsisting on $2 a day or less, the rise in CO2 has literally made the difference between surviving and starvation for millions of people.
But some deluded true believers would, if they could, put a stop to CO2-induced prosperity. They would literally prefer to see people starve to death in order to be right, than to admit that they were competely wrong about the “carbon” scare. It is hard to imagine anyone more despicable than a climate alarmist who campaigns against that beneficial, life-giving trace gas.
As we here at the internet’s “Best Science & Technology” site know, all the hand-waving has been over a rise in CO2 from about three parts in 10,000, to only 4 parts in 10,000. That rise has caused no measurable global warming. But even if it did, any such warming would be an added benefit to the biosphere. There is no downside to adding a little more CO2 to the atmosphere. None at all.
But Michael Whittemore says:
When science looks at how hot the sun was and how much CO2 was in the atmosphere over the last 500 million years, it is only possible for the earth to be as hot as it was when you consider both the sun and CO2.
“…only possible”?? That is complete nonsense. Dr. Lief Svalgaard is the resident Solar physicist and professor here, and he disputes the SkS nonsense about the Sun having that kind of an effect. So who should we believe? A nobody named M Whittemore, who argues by cutting and pasting pseudo-science written by a cartoonist? Or Lief — a published, peer reviewed solar physicist?
My money is on the credible scientist, not on the cartoonist and his acolyte.
Another credible scientist is Prof Richard Lindzen, the author of twenty dozen peer reviewed climate papers, and the head of M.I.T.’s Atmospheric Sciences department [but admittedly, he is not a cartoonist]. Dr. Lindzen writes that as measured at the equator, the planet’s temperature has remained constant, within ±1ºC for the past billion+ years. So much for “snowball earth” being controlled by CO2 and the Sun. There are certainly temperature fluctuations, but they have nothing measurable to do with CO2, or vice-versa. I have repeatedly posted charts, from time scales of years to hundreds of millennia, showing that CO2 follows temperature — not vice-versa. [I will re-post those charts on request]
Next, Whittemore opines: “…the scientific predictions for antagonistic global warming from man made CO2 being observed…”
More nonsense. Nothing like that is being “observed”. The fact is that not one prediction from the runaway global warming crowd has come to pass. Their central prediction — that the rise in [harmless, beneficial] CO2 will cause runaway global warming — has been so thoroughly debunked, discredited and ridiculed, that the alarmist crowd has stopped calling their failed prediction “runaway global warming”. Now, they use the vague term “climate change”. That change alone shows that they were wrong. They are just moving the goal posts, as always.
The climate alarmists’ central ‘catastrophic AGW’ prediction was based on always-wrong computer climate models. Not one GCM was able to predict the seventeen year HALT to global warming. Not one of them! Every model got that wrong. CO2 has continued to rise, even though the planet stopped warming many years ago. But because the climate alarmist crowd’s belief is based on emotion, not on rational thought, they are incapable of accepting that the Real World has falsified their beliefs.
Finally, Whittemore ends up parroting Trenberth’s ‘hidden heat in the deep ocean’ nonsense, as if heat doesn’t rise. They believe that somehow, heat has been lurking at the bottom of the cold ocean, just waiting to pounce. As if.
If it weren’t for constantly moving the goal posts, and “adjusting” the temperature record to always show scary warming, and engaging in psychological projection, and being afflicted with cognitive dissonance, and believing the ravings of a lunatic cartoonist, the alarmist crowd wouldn’t have very much to say. Not much at all.
When it comes to the Scientific Method, the Null Hypothesis, empirical observations, and simple common sense, those are the only times that the alarmist crowd goes silent. No wonder they have lost every public debate, and now they will not debate any more. Because they have no credible science, only their emotional True Belief.