Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
I went over to Andy Revkin’s site to be entertained by his latest fulminations against “denialists”. Revkin, as you may remember from the Climategate emails, was the main go-to media lapdog for the various unindicted Climategate co-conspirators. His latest post is a bizarre mishmash of allegations, bogus claims, and name-calling. Most appositely, given his history of blind obedience to his oh-so-scientific masters like Phil Jones and Michael Mann, he illustrated it with this graphic which presumably shows Revkin’s response when confronted with actual science:
I was most amused, however, to discover what this man who claims to be reporting on science has to say about the reason for the very existence of his blog:
By 2050 or so, the human population is expected to reach nine billion, essentially adding two Chinas to the number of people alive today. Those billions will be seeking food, water and other resources on a planet where, scientists say, humans are already shaping climate and the web of life. In Dot Earth, which moved from the news side of The Times to the Opinion section in 2010, Andrew C. Revkin examines efforts to balance human affairs with the planet’s limits. Conceived in part with support from a John Simon Guggenheim Fellowship, Dot Earth tracks relevant developments from suburbia to Siberia.
Really? Let’s look at the numbers put up by this charmingly innumerate fellow.
Here’s how the numbers play out. I agree with Revkin, most authorities say the population will top out at about nine billion around 2050. I happen to think they are right, not because they are authorities, but because that’s what my own analysis of the numbers has to say. Hey, color me skeptical, I don’t believe anyone’s numbers.
In any case, here are the FAO numbers for today’s population:
PRESENT GLOBAL POPULATION: 7.24 billion
PRESENT CHINESE POPULATION: 1.40 billion
PRESENT POPULATION PLUS REVKIN’S “TWO CHINAS”: 10.04 billion
So Revkin is only in error by one billion people … but heck, given his historic defense of scientific malfeasance, and his ludicrous claims about “denialists” and “denialism”, that bit of innumeracy pales by comparison.
Despite that, Revkin’s error is not insignificant. From the present population to 9 billion, where the population is likely to stabilize, is an increase of about 1.75 billion. IF Revkin’s claims about two Chinas were correct, the increase would be 2.8 billion. So his error is 2.8/1.75 -1, which means his numbers are 60% too high. A 60% overestimation of the size of the problem that he claims to be deeply concerned about? … bad journalist, no cookies.
Now, for most science reporters, a 60% error in estimating the remaining work to be done on the problem they’ve identified as the most important of all issues, the problem they say is the raison d’etre of their entire blog … well, that kind of a mistake would matter to them. They would hasten to correct an error of that magnitude. For Revkin, however, a 60% error is lost in the noise of the rest of his ludicrous ideas and his endless advocacy for shonky science …
My prediction? He’ll leave the bogus alarmist population claim up there on his blog, simply because a “denialist” pointed out his grade-school arithmetic error, and changing even a jot or a tittle in response to a “denialist” like myself would be an unacceptable admission of fallibility …
My advice?
Don’t get your scientific info from a man who can’t add to ten … particularly when he is nothing but a pathetic PR shill for bogus science and disingenuous scientists …
w.
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I have long thought of Revkin as a weak man who has had suffered from bad company but who had some shreds of self-respect left which occasioned the occasional gentle challenge to his chums. But now I am beginning to think he has lost his shreds.
Jimbo:
At February 22, 2014 at 3:23 pm you say
I disagree because I think it will be much earlier than that!
I predict that by 2050 the main worry about population will be the start of a declining world population.
Please see my above post at February 22, 2014 at 1:41 pm which is here.
Richard
gnomish says:
February 22, 2014 at 12:24 pm
Yeah, I’ve been so restrained in the past …
w.
4 eyes:
At February 22, 2014 at 3:32 pm you say
No. Your assertion is denied by empirical data, Human birth rate is below replenishment level in all affluent societies.
Please see my above post at February 22, 2014 at 1:41 pm which is here.
Richard
@James Baldwin (Aus.)
yes I admit, the ad-hominem part was wrong. I should better call it wrong understanding of dealing with large numbers and a general problem in estimating approximations. Ok let’s do an ad-hominem attack: What the heck is so difficult to understand that this guy made an comparesion, naturally lacking in accuracy? Using the fact that this approximation results in roughly a biilion more people on earth by the time, to show that he is of unscientific nature, is just a silly as someone claiming that we all gonna die because of global warming, population growth etc. etc.
pokerguy says:
February 22, 2014 at 12:29 pm
Naw. You’re not contemptible slime, but I disagree with you on that very point. Isn’t that a neat recursive proof?
OK, let me try again:
Do go and read the Climategate emails, pokerguy. Revkin is a toady and a sycophant. I disagree with lots of folks who are neither one.
Finally, the fact that someone is “sincere and well-meaning” makes things worse, not better … but he’s neither. He colluded with the Climategate folks to spread and popularize their lies. That is not the act of a “sincere and well-meaning man” on my planet.
w.
Contributions like that makes me feel like I’m on greg laden’s blog, where every weather event is linked to global warming. Willis Eschenbach is more a philosopher, great articles though, but please stick to the science here, when it comes to science.
Bravo Dr. Tim Ball!
http://drtimball.com/2014/overpopulation-the-fallacy-behind-the-fallacy-of-global-warming/
Could it be that the IPCC was set up to dampen or reduce the world’s population? I have said in the past that it was to de-industrialize the west but maybe I was only half right. You see progressives can’t come out openly and say we need to cut the world’s population. They mask it as an attempt to deal with industrialised nations’ externalities when in fact it is an attack on the poorest most vulnerable peoples in the Third World. Indirect genocide based on the trace gas co2.
If you are using updated pop figures, you should be using 9.5 or 9.6 for 2050, not 9.0. At least if I am using your referred population site correctly…
Willis: Revkin was quoting David Victor who in turn was talking of Kerry’s talk in the Philippines. Victor also contributed to a seminar at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography titled “Global Warming Denialism: What science has to say.” There was no science there, just warmists trying to find the best way to propagandize and turn the public against “denialism.” I wrote the comment below to put them in their place. This is what I said:
“First, there is absolutely no science in this, just another seminar promoting the public relations of the global warming pseudo-science. Victor talks derogatorily of ‘denialist chatter’ and opines that it is not even denialism but that ‘…what we are seeing is what psychologists call ‘motivated reasoning’ — people hear about something they abhor and they find reasons to justify their dissent.’ That perfectly defines his attitude. I happen to be a scientist and I prefer to talk about science, not propaganda. Global warming, so we are told, is anthropogenic because we are putting carbon dioxide into the air where it causes greenhouse warming. It does that by absorbing IR radiation that leaves the earth. But here is a conundrum. There is more carbon dioxide in the air now than ever before but there has been none of that greenhouse warming for the last 17 years. This extra high atmospheric carbon dioxide should warm the world but it doesn’t. True believers are so worried that they are looking for an imaginary ‘missing heat’ everywhere, including the ocean bottom, but our century is greenhouse free. Since there is no greenhouse warming now, and observations say so, we must consider the possibility that the entire greenhouse warming theory is false. Natural laws cannot be turned on or off. If the theory is false now it always has been false. But what about past warming? Very simple, use Ockham’s razor. They were misidentified by over-eager pseudo-scientists.”
Roger A. Pielke Sr. says:
February 22, 2014 at 12:31 pm
Roger, for you to say that means that you have not read the Climategate emails in their entirety. I suggest you might start with the two links I provided above.
Here’s Revkin on the “Mann’s Nature trick”, where Mann spliced two datasets together and spread peanut-butter on the splice so no one noticed …
Here’s Revkin to Santer and Mears in the emails …
If you call that “objective and open journalism”, Roger, you desperately need your meters recalibrated …
Finally, you say:
I am sick of climate scientists who never, ever seem to want to either see, hear, or read anything at all negative about another climate scientist. Roger, it is just that unwillingness of you and other climate scientists to call a spade a spade that has left the field in such a shambles. Nobody is willing to say a bad word, even when people start breaking laws like Peter Gleick he just gets feted and invited to speak at the conferences. I’m sick of this toffee-nosed attitude.
The problem is not that I’m too outraged about these issues.
The problem is that you and your friends are not outraged enough. You think this is some kind of cream-puff faculty affair where you all pat each other on the back even though you can’t stand each other, and nothing makes a damn bit of difference … but meanwhile, out here in the real world, Revkin’s lies and misrepresentations are actively harming the poor of the world and leading to fuel poverty even in the developing world. See here, here, and here for details.
So I’m sorry, Roger, but despite my huge respect for your many scientific accomplishments, I’m not going to be all collegiate about Revkin’s inability to add. You might think Revkin’s feelings are more important than the fact that the policies he promotes are killing people … me, not so much …
w.
I have suspected 2050 but I prefer to be conservative with my predictions. Lest I be attacked without mercy. 😉 All the signs so far do point THIS century being a defining moment for global population. To be very honest my biggest worry for humanity is not overpopulation but our eventual extinction (on planet Earth) within the next 2,000 years in our present form (conservative). I talk like this because I don’t know what is possible or will happen in 1,000 years time as regards technology, innovations, genetics, hybrids, etc.
Hans Erren says:
February 22, 2014 at 12:43 pm
Hans, he has overestimated the number of people we’ll be adding to the planet by 60%. Perhaps you live in a world where discussing a 60% error is “nitpicking”. Here on my world, a 60% overestimation is called a big error.
In addition, this was not a throwaway comment. His bogus and wildly incorrect claim that we’ll have to add 2.8 billion people to the planet is the reason he is blogging …
w.
You might still be overrun; per wiki (b/c it is quick):
Something does not appear to jive in the math; ‘natural increase … 300,000 persons’, 802,000 newborns, 80.1% had two French parents?
Depending what is correct, you may or may not be overrun … what is the cause of those car
burnings and riots again and high unemployment? High Unemployment
Also interesting to note is this tidbit from here on the bottom of page 505 that may be the ‘core’ reason birth rates are up (and perhaps the families are intact?):
The text goes on to explain the differences between ‘English’ welfare systems and European et al as contrasted with the French system.
.
Malthusian Warmists coming to this thread must be horrified by the plethora of opposing views and evidence regarding the ‘problem’ of population. It may make some of them look deeper and start less eco-worrying. Please stop worrying about ‘overpopulation’ and start worrying about the people who are supposed to support your grandchildren and descendants in their golden years of retirement. THIS IS THE PROBLEM before 87 years time, for now it’s ‘overpopulation’ blah, blah.
No middle ground anymore.
That’s how wars start.
Wow.
Gotta leave an exit for the defeated foes, lest they fight to the death.
[trimmed. Mod]
Steven Mosher says:
February 22, 2014 at 2:51 pm
So your point is that Revkin can’t even be trusted to be a proper toady, he’s only “carrying the message” part of the time? I hope that your explanation (he’s not bad, just flaky and not trustworthy) makes him feel better.
Let me ask you this, Steven. When Revkin talks of “climate denialism”, and claims that the folks like Anthony, myself, and Steve McIntyre are (take your choice) either “shills” or “skeptics” or “hobbyists”, and he doesn’t say or quote a single good word about any of the three possibilities, but instead quotes claims that it’s all because we’ve just heard “about something [we] abhor and [we] find reasons to justify [our] dissent” … is he “carrying the message” for Mann, or not?
Because that’s certainly Mann’s message … and Revkin’s certainly carrying it …
w.
u.k.(us) says:
February 22, 2014 at 4:28 pm
For many, perhaps most of the AGW alarmists, their entire existence depends on the purported existence of global warming. If there was none, most of them would be out of a job tomorrow. This includes literally thousands and thousands of rent-seekers, government bureaucrats, political activists, and other peripheral parasites.
So the bad news is, as we’ve already seen for some years, they will fight to the death no matter what we do. You seem to think the war is starting now. It started when they all realized that their claims were built on sand … and the desperation kicked in. Revkin is a perfect example.
w.
” Roger, it is just that unwillingness of you and other climate scientists to call a spade a spade that has left the field in such a shambles. Nobody is willing to say a bad word, even when people start breaking laws like Peter Gleick he just gets feted and invited to speak at the conferences. ”
there is more than one kind of toady, eh?
‘the way for evil to conquer is for good men to say nothing”
why should anybody have a problem with willis demonstrating that ‘good men DO call out the fraudsters’ and that anything less doesn’t measure up to being a ‘good man’ or maybe even a man at all?
stop feeding the beast would be more sensible, though.
hiring frauds is no less stupid. crying about getting what you paid for does what? dare to speak the name?
“By 2050 or so, the human population is expected to reach nine billion, essentially adding two Chinas to the number of people alive today.”
“PRESENT GLOBAL POPULATION: 7.24 billion”
———————-
Now I compiled the following statistics more than a year ago, to wit:
Increases in World Population & Atmospheric CO2 by Decade
year — world popul. – % incr. — Dec CO2 ppm – % incr. — avg increase/year
1940 – 2,300,000,000 est. ___ ____ 300 ppm
1950 – 2,556,000,053 – 11.1% ____ 310 ppm – 3.1% —— 1.0 ppm/year
1960 – 3,039,451,023 – 18.9% ____ 316 ppm – 3.2% —— 0.6 ppm/year
1970 – 3,706,618,163 – 21.9% ____ 325 ppm – 2.7% —— 0.9 ppm/year
1980 – 4,453,831,714 – 20.1% ____ 338 ppm – 3.8% —– 1.3 ppm/year
1990 – 5,278,639,789 – 18.5% ____ 354 ppm – 4.5% —– 1.6 ppm/year
2000 – 6,082,966,429 – 15.2% ____ 369 ppm – 4.3% —– 1.5 ppm/year
2010 – 6,809,972,000 – 11.9% ____ 389 ppm – 5.1% —– 2.0 ppm/year
A 2 year increase from 2010 …..
2012 – 7,057,075,000 – 3.62% ____ 394 ppm – 1.3% —– 2.5 ppm/year
And now to add the 1 year increase from 2012 ….
2013 – 7,240,000,000 – 2.59% increase in one (1) year,
An increase of 430,028,000 between 2010 and 2013 for a 6.31% increase in 5 years
Thus the average increase is still above 12% per decade …. but is decreasing.
And another 36 years or 3 ½ decades to go to 2050.
” It started when they all realized that their claims were built on sand … and the desperation kicked in”
i disagree, willis- i think it started when these individuals defined human beings as their prey and learned that the prey would only complain- even as they cooperate fully. this was never ever about science.
the idea of leaving a backdoor for predators is quite insane.
but that’s just one of the many insanities required for this madness to exist as it does.
Malthus was wrong, Malthusian followers like Ehrlich were wrong and are still wrong. They will remain wrong this century and after that their concerns will be irrelevant. There is more than enough food for everyone now and for the rest of this century, the issues are a lack of refrigeration, food waste, other types of preservation, transport etc. Not all cultivatable land is being currently used either (without fallow land).
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.AGRI.ZS/countries
http://farmindustrynews.com/blog/top-50-innovations-agricultural-engineering
http://www.grida.no/graphicslib/detail/current-and-potential-arable-land-use-in-africa_a9fd [2006]
INNUMERACY
a,n.ditchfield
Innumeracy is a new word, coined as a companion to illiteracy. To those afflicted by innumeracy, the dozens, thousands and millions are mere words. The Innumerate talk about billions and trillions with no concern for what they say and are prone to bad judgment when it comes to large quantities.
A sense of proportion is needed to address issues requiring insight into magnitude. One billion seconds add up to about 32 years. One billion minutes is close to 1900 years, a span of time that takes us back to the Roman Empire at the end of the century of Christ. These facts throw some light on the lack of perception of those not endowed with a mathematical background.
All grant that the planet is large, but how large is crucial in many issues. What is the content of the crust of the earth?
One cubic kilometre of the crust weighs 2.7 billion tonnes. A sphere with a circumference of 40 thousand km has a surface of 509 000 000 km². To a depth of 1000 m, the crust holds 1.366 billion billion tonnes:
1 366 000 000 000 000 000 tonnes
.Reckoning with a depth of 100 m, as readily accessible, only knocks off one zero from an astronomical number.
It is unlikely that mankind will ever assay the content of such a vast mass. Diehards will still hold as axiomatic that, ultimately, a finite planet cannot sustain infinite growth. But resources are so great that they may be regarded as infinite when compared to any conceivable human need. Does the innumerate talk about limited non-renewable resources make sense?
Common sense and mathematics make exhaustion of non-renewable resources a concept alien to mining businesses tuned into realities of supply, demand and cost. Consistent records of prices of commodities are maintained by a magazine, The Economist, since the middle of the 19th century. Far from rising in response to growing scarcity, all commodity prices have shown decline in response to abundance and falling costs. That is why feeding a human being costs, in real value, 1/8 of what it was in 1850.
An additional fact is that, ultimately, the planet is subject to the law of conservation of mass. Human consumption never subtracted one gram from the mass of the planet. All the stuff is still around in some form and may be recycled. The limit would be the availability and cost of energy, but with the advent of inexpensive fusion energy from deuterium this becomes possible. It may be claimed that controlled fusion energy has not yet become practical, but to assume that it never will be is an assumption that science and technology will henceforth remain frozen. Fusion energy is no physical impossibility on a par with perpetual energy; is an ongoing process in stars and mankind has made H bombs.
How much energy is available? Each cubic meter of seawater contains about 102.8 x 10 ²³ atoms of deuterium with a mass of 34.4 grams. It holds the equivalent to the heat combustion of 269 tonnes of coal, or of 1360 barrels of crude oil. The world resource of seawater’s deuterium is around a billion times greater than the known fossil fuel reserve.
Quantification reveals a clash of two mindsets set apart by a chasm of understanding. The innumerate camp resorts to acts of faith in experts – and soothsayers they are incapable of spotting. Those with background in hard science don’t care about beliefs. Engineers use Euclidean geometry because its propositions stand demonstrated, not because they believe in Euclid. Richard Feynman said that science is a belief – in the ignorance of experts. The hard science people are trained to mistrust all doctrines and think for themselves.
The innumerate depend on faith on what others say. When it suits them they quote a consensus in peer reviewed periodicals as the stamp of approval by higher authority. This hardens opposition to a suspect cause of propagandists. Consensus forming is a political process that has no place in science, always open to inquiry and addition of new layers of knowledge. Who peer-reviewed the work of Isaac Newton? Nobody: Newton has no peer. Einstein over fifty years wrote five hundred articles, none of them peer-reviewed. Is Relativity Theory invalid because it lacks approval by self-appointed authorities?
Getting mathematicians to believe in a consensus of soothsayers is akin to referring an obscure point of a theological dispute to an atheist.
@ur momisugly Willis,
I thought your comment to Roger A. Pielke Sr., was way over the top (even for you).
No middle ground.
Divide your enemies, is a tactic in war.
Are we not in one ?
The politicians need a face-saving way out of the hysteria they have been promoting.