While Matthew England claims in a new paper that fast trade winds caused cooling:
The strongest trade winds have driven more of the heat from global warming into the oceans; but when those winds slow, that heat will rapidly return to the atmosphere causing an abrupt rise in global average temperatures.
Heat stored in the western Pacific Ocean caused by an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial trade winds appears to be largely responsible for the hiatus in surface warming observed over the past 13 years.
Another paper from 2006 says the exact opposite. This oldie but goodie, that preceded WUWT by a few months, escaped my attention until reader “Alec aka Daffy Duck” pointed me to a news article, and from that I found this original press release which says:
The vast loop of winds that drives climate and ocean behavior across the tropical Pacific has weakened by 3.5% since the mid-1800s, and it may weaken another 10% by 2100, according to a study led by University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) scientist Gabriel Vecchi. The study indicates that the only plausible explanation for the slowdown is human-induced climate change. The findings appear in the May 4 issue of Nature.
So, who to believe? Representatives of The University of the Ship of Fools New South Wales, who seems capable of saying anything to the press depending on the month or year or NCAR/UCAR? Do any of these folks really know with any certainty what is really going on when their excuses for ‘the pause’ don’t even agree?
From NCAR/UCAR:
Slowdown in Tropical Pacific Flow Pinned on Climate Change
May 3, 2006
BOULDER, Colorado—The vast loop of winds that drives climate and ocean behavior across the tropical Pacific has weakened by 3.5% since the mid-1800s, and it may weaken another 10% by 2100, according to a study led by University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) scientist Gabriel Vecchi. The study indicates that the only plausible explanation for the slowdown is human-induced climate change. The findings appear in the May 4 issue of Nature.
The Walker circulation, which spans almost half the circumference of Earth, pushes the Pacific Ocean’s trade winds from east to west, generates massive rains near Indonesia, and nourishes marine life across the equatorial Pacific and off the South American coast. Changes in the circulation, which varies in tandem with El Niño and La Niña events, can have far–reaching effects.
“The Walker circulation is fundamental to climate across the globe,” says Vecchi.
In their paper, “Weakening of Tropical Pacific Atmospheric Circulation Due to Anthropogenic Forcing,” the authors used observations as well as state-of-the-art computer climate model simulations to verify the slowdown and determine whether the cause is human-induced climate change. The work was performed at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), where Vecchi is stationed through the UCAR Visiting Scientist Programs. His coauthors include Brian Soden (University of Miami) and the GFDL team of Andrew Wittenberg, Isaac Held, Ants Leetmaa, and Matthew Harrison.
This diagram shows the Walker Circulation, a vast loop of air above the equatorial Pacific Ocean. See below for an alternate depiction. Click here or on the image to enlarge. (Illustration by Gabriel Vecchi, UCAR.) |
The Walker circulation takes the shape of a loop with rising air in the western tropical Pacific, sinking air in the eastern tropical Pacific, west-to-east winds a few miles high, and east-to-west trade winds at the surface. The trade winds also steer ocean currents. Any drop in winds produces an even larger reduction in wind-forced ocean flow—roughly twice as much in percentage terms for both the observed and projected changes, says Vecchi.
“This could have important effects on ocean ecosystems,” Vecchi says. “The ocean currents driven by the trade winds supply vital nutrients to the near-surface ocean ecosystems across the equatorial Pacific, which is a major fishing region.”
Matching theory and observations
Several theoretical studies have shown that an increase in greenhouse gases should produce a weakening of the Walker circulation. As temperatures rise and more water evaporates from the ocean, water vapor in the lower atmosphere increases rapidly. But physical processes prevent precipitation from increasing as quickly as water vapor. Since the amount of water vapor brought to the upper atmosphere must remain in balance with precipitation, the rate at which moist air is brought from the lower to the upper atmosphere slows down to compensate. This leads to a slowing of the atmospheric circulation.
Based on observations since the mid-1800s, the paper reports a 3.5% slowdown in the Walker circulation, which corresponds closely to the number predicted by theory. To establish whether human-induced climate change is at work, Vecchi and colleagues analyzed 11 simulations using the latest version of the GFDL climate model spanning the period 1861 to 2000. Some of the simulations included the observed increase in greenhouse gases; others included just the natural climate-altering factors of volcanic eruptions and solar variations. Only the simulations that included an increase in greenhouse gases showed the Walker circulation slowing, and they did so at a rate consistent with the observations.
Based on the theoretical considerations, and extrapolating from their 1861–2000 analysis as well as from other simulations for the 21st century, the authors conclude that by 2100 the Walker circulation could slow by an additional 10%. This means the steering of ocean flow by trade winds could decrease by close to 20%.
Simulation results depend on the assumptions and conditions within different models. However, the agreement of theory, observations, and models for the past 150 years lends support to this outlook, say the authors.
What about El Niño?
The study sends mixed signals on the future of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation—the system of ocean-atmosphere linkages that produces the worldwide weather of El Niño and its counterpart, La Niña.
“The circulation has been tending to a more El Niño-like state since the 1860s,” says Vecchi. “However, the dynamics involved here are distinct from those of El Niño.”
This diagram and the one at top show two different views of the Walker Circulation, a vast loop of air above the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Click here or on the image to enlarge. (Illustration by Gabriel Vecchi, UCAR.)
Source: http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/walker.shtml
oooops ,I meant :-http://m.livescience.com/729-global-warming-weakens-trade-winds.html
This is a truly bizarre paper that in effect claims the tail wags the dog..
There is a dartboard somewhere with all the possible reasons. The con artists have a beer, throw a dart and …. Gore bal warming is caused by ……
Jonathan Abbott:
At February 11, 2014 at 1:26 am you say
Please think more positively.
I am sure many WUWT readers would contribute to helping you sail away. Of course, this assumes you would not come back.
Richard
Jai Mitchell says:
….
The paper showing the short term increase in trade winds doesn’t address that this is caused by global warming, only that the short term variability (in the last 15 years) has increased the trade winds and caused more mixing of warm surface water. They also say that they expect this short term increase to go away in the near future (decade or so) and return to the long term trend.
———-
Jai, the previous papers assumed no variability like this to attribute the slowdown to man.
david dohbro says:
February 10, 2014 at 9:09 pm
>>>The only way this is consistent is to accept that the Earth has been not warming (since 2001 or even earlier).
______________________________________________________________
Yes, that is what I am saying, there has been no warming.
>>>In addition, NCAR suggests that warming influences the trade winds, whereas England et al suggests that trade winds influence the warming….
______________________________________________________________
Now that is what I was missing. Good point.
So are you all saying that the trade winds haven’t increased?
Well in South Australia we’re having a hot summer (presumably because you Northerners aren’t using your share of heat at present) and it brings the usual suspects out flapping their gums- http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/bureau-of-meteorology-says-manmade-climate-change-responsible-for-south-australias-record-summer-temperatures/story-fnl1ee8j-1226823469780
Naturally any skeptical meteorologists are not peer reviewed climatologists and anything they have to input doesn’t count.
As background here, Adelaide has had one of the longest thermometer records (from 1880) of any State of Australia and indeed much of the World I understand, due to its Utopian founding, compliments of one Edward Gibbon Wakefield of England at the time. You might like to use Google maps to see how the city is located on the Eastern side of Gulf St Vincent between it and the Adelaide Hills which join the coast to the sea to the South and the arc away inland to the North leaving Elizabeth on a hot dusty plain in summer. With a Mediterranean climate we are chilled in winter by Souwesterlies from distant Antarctica and in summer heated by hot northerlies from inland when slow moving large high pressure cells impact us.
Now here’s the rub. The main city temp station was located to the West of the city in the West Parklands( surveyor Colonel Light designed the city surrounded by such parklands) up until the 1970s when it was moved to the BoM office site in Kent Town, directly to the East of the CBD. Since then Adelaide has grown and in particular become an airconditioned CBD and no doubt the BoM site is a perfect urban heat island nowadays. No doubt with a broken temp record, the good folk at the BoM have been up to the usual tricks trying to make a silk purse out of a sows ear.
Box of Rocks once again puts his finger on it with the Hadley Cell Thingy. I can only wonder if the researchers have ever travelled across the equatorial Pacific. Many of the comments are revolving around the researchers claim that the Walker Circulation is what drives the Trades. Maybe its time for Tropical Weather 101. I’m a retired operational forecaster for the Tropics and yes the Walker Cell determines the strength of the Semi-permanent High Pressure Cell off Equador/Peru. This HP Cell only drives SOME of the trade winds. The equally so or of more importance are the travelling High Pressure Cells roughly near 30S do the bulk; these HP cells are a function of the Hadley Cells; rising air over the equator loops upward then down near 30S to create them. When these moving HP cells are strong, over 1030hPa, the trades are enhanced to 30 kts or more; when the cells are weak, say 1020hPa the trades are weak or near 15kts. In between the travelling HP cells is a trough where the trades reverse. This is a cycle: HP-LP-HP etc, and takes about a week. By the time these winds get to 10S and northward to the equator they are greatly diminished. This is a zone of variable winds; the direction of these winds can be SE, ESE, NE and even NW to W.
The ENSO cycle as Bob Tisdale explains effects the above process. With generally stronger trades during La Nina and weaker trades during El Nino. Neutral ENSO, of which we are in year 2 , is a mixed bag. During the last 2 Neutral years the trades have been fairly robust about 2/3 the time and average the rest (about 15-20kts).
Regarding commercial Fishing and apart from the very Western and Eastern Equatorial Pacific there is none. The big Tuna boats don’t go near the equator; they generally will be found around 15 South; they chase SST as Tuna are quite particular where they swim.
I apologize for boring most of you with the basics, but so many of these recent ‘research papers’ make me wonder if these people have any idea of what really happens over the great oceans. I get the impression that some pick up a technical cartoon that shows the Walker Cell, get an idea, then, ‘right, we’ll do a paper on that’.
WeatherDave, thanks for the insight.
BOR
Sounds like another missing fingerprint of GHG-driven warming. UCAR 2006 says GHG increases should slow down the Walker Circulation but England 2014 finds that trade winds have been speeding up as GHGs have been increasing. Thanks for this latest GHG/AGW falsification Mr. England.
It’s those darn wind turbines that are slowing down the wind. We need more laws and government regulations to limit construction or one day we will exhaust the wind. Wind turbines are also hurting the birds and that is a tragedy that we can no longer tolerate!
We also need to limit the production of solar panels. We are draining the sun of its power and one day it will go dark and that will plunge the earf into darkness.
Save the wind. Save the sun. Save the birds. Save the earf.
They’re “Trade” winds, OK? They can switch their effects at will.
It is high time all so-called “climate scientists” are regulated, required to hold a license, and be held to account for their work. I have never seen a discipline so confused, and involved in what is looking more and more like ‘crystal-balling’ on climate change… one moment it’s this … another moment it’s that. It’s pathetic.
Just look at the climate models as evidence of what I am talking about. The models will never be able to simulate the climate system, let alone predict future climate, for obvious reasons. Yet scientists keep pretending it can be done if only they could have more money to achieve more computer power. So the money-flood continues with the deception. It’s disgraceful. And this has happened ever since the IPCC was anointed “the world’s peak scientific body” … something it certainly is not.