From the University of Southampton and the department of potential assorted threats and sundries, comes this claim.
New research predicts that coastal regions may face massive increases in damages from storm surge flooding over the course of the 21st century.
Yes, and a asteroid could hit us, and some errant jihadist might get a nuke and set it off. I worry about those things more than I worry about coastlines and the affluent who build there, especially since Global Tropical Cyclone activity is at 33-year lows.
According to the study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, global average storm surge damages could increase from about $10-$40 billion per year today to up to $100,000 billion per year by the end of century, if no adaptation action is taken.
The study, led by the Berlin-based think-tank Global Climate Forum (GCF) and involving the University of Southampton, presents, for the first time, comprehensive global simulation results on future flood damages to buildings and infrastructure in coastal flood plains. Drastic increases in these damages are expected due to both rising sea levels and population and economic growth in the coastal zone. Asia and Africa may be particularly hard hit because of their rapidly growing coastal mega-cities, such as Shanghai, Manila and Lagos.
“If we ignore this problem, the consequences will be dramatic,” explains Jochen Hinkel from GCF and the study’s lead author. In 2100, up to 600 million people (around 5 per cent of the global population) could be affected by coastal flooding if no adaptation measures are put in place.
“Countries need to take action and invest in coastal protection measures, such as building or raising dikes, amongst other options,” urges Hinkel. With such protection measures, the projected damages could be reduced to below $80 billion per year during the 21st century. The researchers found that an investment level of $10 to $70 billion per year could achieve such a reduction. Prompt action is needed most in Asia and Africa where, today, large parts of the coastal population are already affected by storm surge flooding.
However, investment must also occur in Europe as shown by the recent coastal floods in South West England. Professor Robert Nicholls from the University of Southampton, who is a co-author of the paper, says: “If we ignore sea-level rise, flood damages will progressively rise and presently good defences will be degraded and ultimately overwhelmed. Hence we must start to adapt now, be that planning higher defences, flood proofing buildings and strategically planning coastal land use.”
Meeting the challenge of adapting to rising sea levels will not be easy, explains Hinkel: “Poor countries and heavily impacted small-island states are not able to make the necessary investments alone, they need international support.” Adding to the challenge, international finance mechanisms have thus far proved sluggish in mobilising funds for adapting to climate change, as the debate on adaptation funding at the recent climate conference in Warsaw once again confirmed.
“If we do not reduce greenhouse gases swiftly and substantially, some regions will have to seriously consider relocating significant numbers of people in the longer run,” adds Hinkel. Yet regardless of how much sea-level rise climate change brings, the researchers say careful long-term strategic planning can ensure that development in high-risk flood zones is appropriately designed or avoided. Professor Nicholls says: “This long-term perspective is however a challenge to bring about, as coastal development tends to be dominated by short-term interests of, for example, real-estate and tourism companies, which prefer to build directly at the waterfront with little thought about the future.”
Anyone who wants to pay for relocating all those poor and rich folks, just send me your money and I will see to it that your wealth is redistributed.
“If we do not reduce greenhouse gases swiftly and substantially, some regions will have to seriously consider relocating significant numbers of people in the longer run,” adds Hinkel.
===
A statement which carefully avoids pointing out that EXACTLY the same thing will be true if we do “reduce greenhouse gases swiftly and substantially”.
For a tiny fraction of the money wasted on trying to prove CO2 causes global warming, they could prevent a very real potential human extinction happening, namely, another Carrington Event. For a half billion they could protect the power grid and attached nuclear reactors from getting knocked out/melted down by a once in 500 year super solar storm.
Matthew 7:24-27
New International Version (NIV)
The Wise and Foolish Builders
24 “Therefore everyone who hears these words of mine and puts them into practice is like a wise man who built his house on the rock. 25 The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house; yet it did not fall, because it had its foundation on the rock. 26 But everyone who hears these words of mine and does not put them into practice is like a foolish man who built his house on sand. 27 The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house, and it fell with a great crash.”
I can only conclude Jesus Christ was a man-made climate change denier and understood perfectly natural climate change consequences.
It would be an interesting exercise to compare press release and paper.
The paper finds that sea level rise is a big issue if we keep coastal protection standards as they are today; and that sea level rise is a small issue if we coastal protection standards evolve in line with their historic trends.
Martin C says:
February 4, 2014 at 8:08 pm
————————————–
“SEAL LEVEL RISE” ?
Or the western flank of the Cumbre Vieja volcano, La Palma, Canary Islands may suddenly slide into the ocean, evoking a dreadful megatsunami, utterly destroying South West England along with the entire Eastern seaboard of the US and all coastlines of the Atlantic in general, no matter what conceivable defenses are built.
Unfortunately moving inland is not an option either, because there are dormant supervolcanoes on both continents and elsewhere, like the Yellowstone caldera, Wyoming, US or Campi Flegrei, Naples, Italy which could instantly wipe the human mold off of the face of Mother Gaia. It is certainly worse than we thought, be very afraid, we’re all gonna die.
Just like watching a game of Ping-Pong.
We are doomed, we’re not doomed, we are, no we’re not, yes we are, don’t be stupid, don’t you call me stupid, I didn’t call you stupid, yes you did, no I didn’t, so I’m not stupid?, I didn’t say that, why not? , , , , , , , , ,
Me, I have thoughts in both directions and can’t make my mind up.
There’s a brief post (less than 350 words) which may clarify climate change for some . . .
http://cartoonmick.wordpress.com/2013/07/17/the-final-chapter/
Cheers
Mick
Monty Python’s argument sketch courtesy of http://www.mindspring.com/~mfpatton/sketch.htm
The Cast (in order of appearance.)
M= Man looking for an argument
R= Receptionist
Q= Abuser
A= Arguer (John Cleese)
C= Complainer (Eric Idle)
H= Head Hitter
M: Ah. I’d like to have an argument, please.
R: Certainly sir. Have you been here before?
M: No, I haven’t, this is my first time.
R: I see. Well, do you want to have just one argument, or were you thinking of taking a course?
M: Well, what is the cost?
R: Well, It’s one pound for a five minute argument, but only eight pounds for a course of ten.
M: Well, I think it would be best if I perhaps started off with just the one and then see how it goes.
R: Fine. Well, I’ll see who’s free at the moment.
Pause
R: Mr. DeBakey’s free, but he’s a little bit conciliatory.
Ahh yes, Try Mr. Barnard; room 12.
M: Thank you.
(Walks down the hall. Opens door.)
Q: WHAT DO YOU WANT?
M: Well, I was told outside that…
Q: Don’t give me that, you snotty-faced heap of parrot droppings!
M: What?
Q: Shut your festering gob, you tit! Your type really makes me puke, you vacuous, coffee-nosed, maloderous, pervert!!!
M: Look, I CAME HERE FOR AN ARGUMENT, I’m not going to just stand…!!
Q: OH, oh I’m sorry, but this is abuse.
M: Oh, I see, well, that explains it.
Q: Ah yes, you want room 12A, Just along the corridor.
M: Oh, Thank you very much. Sorry.
Q: Not at all.
M: Thank You.
(Under his breath) Stupid git!!
(Walk down the corridor)
M: (Knock)
A: Come in.
M: Ah, Is this the right room for an argument?
A: I told you once.
M: No you haven’t.
A: Yes I have.
M: When?
A: Just now.
M: No you didn’t.
A: Yes I did.
M: You didn’t
A: I did!
M: You didn’t!
A: I’m telling you I did!
M: You did not!!
A: Oh, I’m sorry, just one moment. Is this a five minute argument or the full half hour?
M: Oh, just the five minutes.
A: Ah, thank you. Anyway, I did.
M: You most certainly did not.
A: Look, let’s get this thing clear; I quite definitely told you.
M: No you did not.
A: Yes I did.
M: No you didn’t.
A: Yes I did.
M: No you didn’t.
A: Yes I did.
M: No you didn’t.
A: Yes I did.
M: You didn’t.
A: Did.
M: Oh look, this isn’t an argument.
A: Yes it is.
M: No it isn’t. It’s just contradiction.
A: No it isn’t.
M: It is!
A: It is not.
M: Look, you just contradicted me.
A: I did not.
M: Oh you did!!
A: No, no, no.
M: You did just then.
A: Nonsense!
M: Oh, this is futile!
A: No it isn’t.
M: I came here for a good argument.
A: No you didn’t; no, you came here for an argument.
M: An argument isn’t just contradiction.
A: It can be.
M: No it can’t. An argument is a connected series of statements intended to establish a proposition.
A: No it isn’t.
M: Yes it is! It’s not just contradiction.
A: Look, if I argue with you, I must take up a contrary position.
M: Yes, but that’s not just saying ‘No it isn’t.’
A: Yes it is!
M: No it isn’t!
A: Yes it is!
M: Argument is an intellectual process. Contradiction is just the automatic gainsaying of any statement the other person makes.
(short pause)
A: No it isn’t.
M: It is.
A: Not at all.
M: Now look.
A: (Rings bell) Good Morning.
M: What?
A: That’s it. Good morning.
M: I was just getting interested.
A: Sorry, the five minutes is up.
M: That was never five minutes!
A: I’m afraid it was.
M: It wasn’t.
Pause
A: I’m sorry, but I’m not allowed to argue anymore.
M: What?!
A: If you want me to go on arguing, you’ll have to pay for another five minutes.
M: Yes, but that was never five minutes, just now. Oh come on!
A: (Hums)
M: Look, this is ridiculous.
A: I’m sorry, but I’m not allowed to argue unless you’ve paid!
M: Oh, all right.
(pays money)
A: Thank you.
short pause
M: Well?
A: Well what?
M: That wasn’t really five minutes, just now.
A: I told you, I’m not allowed to argue unless you’ve paid.
M: I just paid!
A: No you didn’t.
M: I DID!
A: No you didn’t.
M: Look, I don’t want to argue about that.
A: Well, you didn’t pay.
M: Aha. If I didn’t pay, why are you arguing? I Got you!
A: No you haven’t.
M: Yes I have. If you’re arguing, I must have paid.
A: Not necessarily. I could be arguing in my spare time.
M: Oh I’ve had enough of this.
A: No you haven’t.
M: Oh Shut up.
(Walks down the stairs. Opens door.)
M: I want to complain.
C: You want to complain! Look at these shoes. I’ve only had them three weeks and the heels are worn right through.
M: No, I want to complain about…
C: If you complain nothing happens, you might as well not bother.
M: Oh!
C: Oh my back hurts, it’s not a very fine day and I’m sick and tired of this office.
(Slams door. walks down corridor, opens next door.)
M: Hello, I want to… Ooooh!
H: No, no, no. Hold your head like this, then go Waaah. Try it again.
M: uuuwwhh!!
H: Better, Better, but Waah, Waah! Put your hand there.
M: No.
H: Now..
M: Waaaaah!!!
H: Good, Good! That’s it.
M: Stop hitting me!!
H: What?
M: Stop hitting me!!
H: Stop hitting you?
M: Yes!
H: Why did you come in here then?
M: I wanted to complain.
H: Oh no, that’s next door. It’s being-hit-on-the-head lessons in here.
M: What a stupid concept.
Al Gore could move his real estate further inland. That would save his insurance company tens of millions.
Cheers
Roger
http://www.rogerfromnewzealand.wordpress.com
of hubs and sub-hubs:
5 Feb: Reuters: Jeff Mason: U.S. to launch ‘climate hubs’ to help farmers face climate change
President Barack Obama’s administration will announce on Wednesday the formation of seven “climate hubs” to help farmers and rural communities adapt to extreme weather conditions and other effects of climate change, a White House official said.
The hubs will act as information centers and aim to help farmers and ranchers handle risks, including fires, pests, floods and droughts, that are exacerbated by global warming.
The hubs will be located in Ames, Iowa; Durham, New Hampshire; Raleigh, North Carolina; Fort Collins, Colorado; El Reno, Oklahoma; Corvallis, Oregon; and Las Cruces, New Mexico, the official said.
Additional “sub hubs” will be set up in Rio Piedras, Puerto Rico; Davis, California; and Houghton, Michigan.
The hubs are an example of executive actions Obama has promised to take to fight climate change…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/05/us-usa-climate-hubs-idUSBREA1408120140205
——————————————————————————–
Not to mention cooling and blizzards.
4 Feb: Gizmodo: Geoff Manaugh: Will Smallpox Reemerge In Siberia As Corpses Thaw From Climate Change?
In an article primarily about the potential folly of holding onto stockpiles of smallpox virus for research purposes — a now-eradicated plague that humans no longer have natural immunity to and that would very likely cause a worldwide catastrophe should it escape from the lab — the BBC includes one awesomely horrible detail. Could the frozen bodies of smallpox victims in Siberia, now thawing because of climate change, re-release the virus into the environment and thus start a global pandemic?…
Writing for Science back in March 2002, for example, in an article straight-forwardly entitled “Is Live Smallpox Lurking in the Arctic?,” author Richard Stone describes a scene that he likens to the Blair Witch Project. It’s both stomach-turning and awesomely macabre…
The idea of long-frozen things coming back to life — or, at least, emerging once again into fresh air — was also raised last week by Smithsonian‘s look at one of my favourite stories of recent times: the blood-red “waterfall” that has emerged in Antarctica as the glacier above it melts…
http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2014/02/will-smallpox-reemerge-in-siberia-as-corpses-thaw-from-climate-change/
31 Jan: BBC: Rachel Nuwer: Smallpox: Last refuge of an ultimate killer
In the past, some researchers and news outlets speculated that smallpox in the frozen graves of former victims might remain in suspended animation, ready to begin a new cycle of infection should those bodies ever be dug up and unthawed…
“No one feels there’s a serious chance that global warming will melt the permafrost and unleash an epidemic,” says Michael Lane, who served as director of the Centers for Disease Control’s (CDC) smallpox eradication programme from 1970 until 1981, when it was declared a success and shut down…
So how do we know that additional smallpox samples are not also hoarded away in some terrorist hideout, or stuck in an old vial in the back of a forgotten freezer? “We don’t,” Lane says. “There’s no way to prove a negative.”…
(CLICK ON THE WRITER’S NAME: Rachel Nuwer is a science journalist who contributes to venues such as The New York Times, Scientific American and Smithsonian. Her website is rachelnuwer.com and you can follow her on twitter at @rachelnuwer. She lives in Brooklyn)
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140130-last-refuge-of-an-ultimate-killer/all
BBC – why omit UEA?
About Rachel Nuwer
In 2010 Rachel returned to Southeast Asia to investigate illegal wildlife trade and natural resource use in Vietnam for her ecology master’s thesis at the University of East Anglia, England. She published that research in the scientific journal Oryx…
She writes for venues such as The New York Times, Smithsonian, Scientific American, the New Scientist, Wired UK, Audubon Magazine, Slate, Popular Mechanics, ScienceNOW, OnEarth, NOVA, Scholastic, Edible Magazine, and others, and blogs for Smithsonian. She also publishes a column, Last Place on Earth, on BBC Future. She lives in Brooklyn.
http://rachelnuwer.com/about/
oops, should have included this line from About Rachel Nuwer:
In 2011, She earned a second master’s degree at New York University’s Science, Health, and Environmental Writing Program (SHERP).
Curious George says: ‘Why aren’t Dutch people alarmed?’
We have here some engineers who keep an eye on it.
Slightly O/T but Tropical Storm Risk have released their 2013 prediction verifications review
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATL2013Verification.pdf
Meanwhile in the UK we continue to suffer with endless storms, floods and damage. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26044283
Latest news.. Prime Minister David Cameron is expected to chair a meeting of the government’s emergency committee, Cobra – the first time this year he has taken on that role – to discuss the impact of the storms.
In fairness we are talking about the TERRIBLE weather in the UK here as intimated by Gareth above!
Stop building on flood plains!!!!!
I look at old pictures of my community which has a medium-sized river running through it. In the older pictures, before there much development and fewer trees, one can clearly see 3 different levels of flood plain along the river.
Normal spring-melt run-off flood plain, once in 10 year flood plain, once in 25 year flood plain. Where did the early pioneers build their structures? Above the third level of course because people are not dumb.
Since then, some new developments got built on the first flood plain or the second. What happened? Right they got flooded several different times. Then large berms were built along the river and the flooding in developed areas stopped.
But there is no building in the flood plains anymore. People are not dumb of course. At least, not more than once in 25 years. After which, a new development will be allowed in the flood plains once again.
This is just a computer ‘stimulation’ carried out by circle jerkers. Munch Re insurance company is at it again.
I also see Global Climate Forum one of whose members is Jochen Hinkel who is a member of PIK.
And the tangled mess can be seen below.
http://notrickszone.com/2012/10/19/the-local-munich-re-profiteering-from-climate-change-scare-stories-based-on-quasi-scientific-reports/
If what Hinkel chicken-littlish says does come true (which it won’t), maybe more corals will form in inland Florida. The Coral Castle was built using inland coral that at something like 40′ above sea level, IIRC.
Wasn’t there suppose to have been 4.5 billion people displaced by global warming by now? Has there been even one (excluding the AGW advocates)?
Perhaps only one (but my “big” favorite) paper – for get you “good” started:
Soelen (2012, http://hol.sagepub.com/content/early/2012/02/28/0959683611434226.abstract): “Throughout the record, indications for storm activity can be recognized as coarser grained layers consisting of quartz sands or shell debris. These layers are rare during the mid Holocene [warm period], but between 3.2 and 2 kyr BP [cool period], their numbers increase, suggesting an increase in tropical cyclone activity in the Gulf of Mexico.”
There are also a lot of work on a significant increase in the number of hurricanes, storms, cyclones in … LIA …
Knutson, (2012, http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/ksvgzkbthv_12_zetac.pdf)
“The projection of more frequent intense hurricanes is statistically significant for the CMIP3 ensemble climate change, but only nominally positive, and not statistically significant, for the CMIP5 ensemble.”
“… intensity projected for the Atlantic basin showed relatively small changes in some studies, ranging even to negative values for some individual models that were analyzed….”
Currently, solar activity decreases and thus: “… action and invest in coastal protection measures, such as building or raising dikes, amongst other options …” always be useful …
H. von Storch (http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-hans-von-storch-on-problems-with-climate-change-models-a-906721.html):
“There are certainly still people who almost ritualistically cry, “Stop thief! Climate change is at fault!”
“Unfortunately, some scientists behave like preachers, delivering sermons to people. What this approach ignores is the fact that there are many threats in our world that must be weighed against one another.”
“Certainly the greatest mistake of climate researchers has been giving the impression that they are declaring the definitive truth. The end result is foolishness along the lines of the climate protection brochures recently published by Germany’s Federal Environmental Agency under the title “Sie erwärmt sich doch” (“The Earth is getting warmer”).”
“I simply meant that it is no longer possible in any case to completely prevent further warming, and thus it would be wise of us to prepare for the inevitable, for example by building higher ocean dikes.”
semczyszakarkadiusz says: @ur momisugly February 5, 2014 at 4:11 am
“I simply meant that it is no longer possible in any case to completely prevent further warming, and thus it would be wise of us to prepare for the inevitable, for example by building higher ocean dikes.”
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You might want to look at my comment when it gets out of moderation.
It is the other side of the argument, and I do not mean the CO2 sensitivity argument.