
With the possibility of the coldest Super Bowl ever coming this week, this story about CO2 concentration seemed appropriate.
Ryan Scott Welch writes:
Anthony as you know, many people don’t know much about the earth’s atmosphere. For example, when questioned about how much CO2 is in our atmosphere most people give me a guess of somewhere between 30% and 70%. When I tell them that CO2 is only 0.04% or really about 395 ppm (parts per million) they generally look at me as if I was speaking some kind of foreign language. The layman simply cannot convert 0.04% of the atmosphere or 395 ppm into anything they can picture or relate to. In searching for some way to help the layman to understand the earth’s atmosphere, CO2, and the human contribution to atmospheric CO2, I came upon the idea of relating a sample of the atmosphere to something that nearly every person has seen, a football stadium.
So, instead of talking about ppm atmosphere, I talk about seats in a stadium. I put together a presentation using football stadium analogy and it goes something like this.
How much atmospheric CO2 is from human activity? If a football stadium represented a sample of our atmosphere, how many seats would be human caused CO2? The Dallas Cowboys Stadium seats 100,000 for special events.
Each seat represents one molecule of gas in our atmosphere.
Nitrogen is 78% of the atmosphere, Oxygen is 21%, and Argon is 0.9% giving you a total of 99.9% of the atmosphere.
So, where is the CO2? CO2 is a trace gas that is only 0.04% of the atmosphere which in this sample = 40 seats.
But of the 40 seats, or parts per 100,000 of CO2 in the atmosphere, 25 were already in the atmosphere before humans relied on hydrocarbon fuels (coal, gas and oil) leaving 15 seats.
And since humans only contribute 3% of all CO2 emitted into the atmosphere each year (97% is from nature), the human contribution is 3% of the 15 remaining seats in our sample. 3% of 15 is 0.45.
So in our stadium sample of 100,000 seats the human contribution of CO2 is less than half of one seat. That is less than one half of one seat from 100,000 seats in a Dallas Stadium sized sample of our atmosphere is human caused CO2.
[NOTE: per Dr. Robert Brown’s comment pointing out an oversight, this half-seat visualization analogy is on a PER YEAR basis, not a total basis – Anthony]
Here is my presentation uploaded on slideshare.net
http://www.slideshare.net/ryanswelch/how-much-atmospheric-co2-is-from-human-activity-23514995
REFERENCES:
Mauna Loa CO2 data: ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/co2/co2_mm_mlo.txt
Wigley, T.M.L., 1983 “The pre-industrial carbon dioxide level.” Climatic Change 5, 315-320 (lowest value of 250 ppm used)
Increasing Atmospheric CO2: Manmade…or Natural? January 21st, 2009 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/01/increasing-atmospheric-co2-manmade%E2%80%A6or-natural/
Water Vapor Rules the Greenhouse System, Geocraft, http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html
The Carbon Cycle, the Ocean, and the Iron Hypothesis, Figure based on Sabine et al 2004, Texas A&M University http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/oceanography-book/carboncycle.htm









1.5 parts in 10,000 assumes that all the incremental nastygas is human. Debatable, but let’s just call that the outside limit. Water vapor averages 1 part in 40. By that ratio, nastygas is less than 2% of the greenhouse gasses and on a linear basis would contribute no more than 2% of the greenhouse effect, the human component being (generously) 1/3 of that.
However, the effect is by no means linear. Nastygas absorbs at a low energy part of the spectrum, while water vapor has absorbtion bands in the higher wattage near infrared part of the spectrum. The high energy water bands are not saturated so they can absorb reflected light. The nastygas bands are saturated by incoming light. They are already flinging all the photons they can.
http://geosciencebigpicture.com/2014/01/13/carbon-dioxide-the-wimp/
Cyanide? Gimme a break. Cyanide you exhale with every breath.
Pippen Kool says:@ur momisugly January 27, 2014 at 4:27 pm
CO2 is not alone in having dramatic effects at low concentrations. Compare to the level of it’s sister molecule, carbon monoxide, which kills in the 600 ppm level and at the present levels of CO2, if it doesn’t kill you, it gives you a hell of headache.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
What utter trash.
Random of the net:
Now they have people all worried about the amount of CO2 in their homes.
Carbon monoxide is dangerous because it binds with the blood instead of oxygen and will not turn loose, Carbon dioxide is needed by humans to keep us from hyperventilating and to regulate blood pH. Mom hyperventilated and the doctors had her breath into a paper bag to increase the CO2.
richardscourtney says:
January 27, 2014 at 1:04 pm
Friends:
The American sense of humour continues to bemuse me.
Several Americans failed to get any laughs from Brad Keyes and took him seriously!
The question from R. de Haan asking “What’s a Cowboys Stadium?” was a joke.
The reply from Box of Rocks asking “What is football?” continued the joke.
My answer to Box of Rocks which defined “football” continued the joke.
And Colorado Wellington assessed by answer saying “Aah, metric football” continued the joke.
Those who have taken any of these comments seriously are spoiling continuation of the joke. OK?
Richard
**************************************************
Thank-you, finally, for calling the meeting to order.
While it may be true American (and Canadian… regards) Football is Rugby in a more civilized form, it is evident Soccer (pardon) is just an excuse for fans to riot.
richardscourtney says:
January 27, 2014 at 2:58 pm
You are confusing half life with residence time. They are not the same thing.
Your definition is a perhaps correct in this particular context through (mis)-use by the community. However, “half-life” according to your usage is pretty much meaningless. Half-life is ordinarily used in more meaningful ways, such as the decay of isotopes. For example, does it make any sense to talk about the half-life of potassium as a mixture of natural isotopes? No. Half-life is far more meaningful when describing only the portion of 40K alone in a mixture with non-radioactive potassium. Yet apparently, for CO2, you (and others?) use half-life to describe a comparable process when the mixture returns to equilibrium.
It would be better to describe the time taken to return to equilibrium conditions after a perturbation as the relaxation time. Half-life describes the loss of a specific cohort in the mixture, e.g. 14C loss in the atmosphere following the bomb testing, and by extension the loss of any human CO2 injected into the atmosphere. What happens to the total concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is another matter depending on the total off rate (loss) and the on rate (gain) of CO2 in the atmosphere.
After the 14C experiment, we know half of the story, the off rate deduced from the rate constant. My calculations indicate the on rate changes cannot be accounted for using only human CO2 (hCO2) emissions. In other words, the Mauna Loa CO2 curve cannot be reconstructed from any reasonable choices of preindustrial CO2 level, known emissions of hCO2, and off rates. Therefore, there must be very substantial natural increases in CO2 responsible for the observed rise in atmospheric CO2.
IF the 1/2 life is as short as just 20-30 years, then the human contribution will rapidly dissipate and the CO2 hypothesis will fail. IMHO it already has as plant life increases so does degrading/decomposing material which in turn increases the amount of CO2. When man emits this its a one time shot where plant life then takes over. Once cooling begins it wont matter how much CO2 we put in the air.
Once we place CO2 in the context of hundreds of thousands of years it becomes apparent that high levels or low levels mean very little. There are other drivers which trump it and a simple look at the past shows it.
I believe that a much more reserved control of particulates is the proper approach which we in the US do already. CO2 control has always been about people control…
The graphic would work better if you take away the colors from the seating chart and then add colors signifying the different gases. Also no need (and confusing/misleading) to mix a stock ( % gas at a given time) with a flow (% of gas being added per year by humans). The visual that all human activity over the past 200 or so years has filled 15 seats in a stadium of 100,000 seats is plenty strong enough.
Matt Schilling says:
January 27, 2014 at 1:08 pm
Matt, he laid out what is like one of Aesop’s Fables … except he didn’t spell out the moral of the story. He never said directly what his whole stadium analogy means. Which is why I said to him “your argument SEEMS TO BE” …
Now, if you think that the overall thrust of his post was different from what it seemed to me like he was saying, you are certainly free to put forward what you think the point of the author’s analogy might be.
Seems to me that the whole point of his analogy with the seats is that since the humans (in his calculations) are only responsible for half of one seat out of a thousand, we don’t need to be concerned about it.
But if you don’t think that’s what he meant, then what do you think the point of his entire analogy might be?
w.
But CO2 is chemically inert, unlike CO.
Personally I like the idea that football be called – gridiron.
While it true that football evolved from rugby football it turns out that most thingies that were British with time bastardized by us Yanks always turn out better.
So if we have cowboys, where are the indians and where is their stadium?
Or, do we still play cowboys and indians?
Association Football, meh. Lots and lots of games end in a tie, quite a few 0-0 which they seem to want to call Nil-Nil, and everyone says what a great game it was, can’t wait for the next one.
I am over it with the comedians on here, supposedly a science blog, the best on the Net. Tell your wife your amazing and clever joke, say something interesting at WUWT…
Or your husband, sorry Gail and Janice!
“Pippen Kool says:
January 27, 2014 at 4:27 pm”
CO2 at ~600ppm gives you a headache? We exhale at 40,000ppm, standard submarine operation is ~8500ppm, upper limit not to exceed 2% concentration. Did you source that bit of CO2 information from SkS?
This analogy also don’t work for me, just not into ball games of any kind. The graph paper/rice analogies do.
With regards to the term “soccer”, I believe that term was derived from “Football Association”. The first and only “football” game I attended as a spectator was a “Rules” game (Australian Rules Football, or “footy” or “rules”) at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) in 1999. There didn’t appear to be any rules applied to the players and game. But I didin’t care too much sitting in an airconditioned corporate box with free beer and food.
Gail Combs says: January 27, 2014 at 6:10 pm “Given that they found CO2 starvation in trees from the Wisconsin glaciation, I would be much much happier with a nice comfortable safety margin like 1000 ppm.”
Me too but the idea is forbidden at 1000.org
Jimbo says:
January 27, 2014 at 4:58 pm
Pippen Kool says:
January 27, 2014 at 4:27 pm
—————————————-
Maybe Pippen is saying that if you had as co as co2, then the 400 ppm of co would give you a heck of a headache.
The upper comment should have been stated ” it you had as much co as co2……”.
Sorry, second misplaced comment today. I have been herding cats and working to save 2 who took sick.
correction on the correction, it was the right spot afterall
Not trying to slam rgbatduke, but if the physics of CO2 in the atmosphere are quite clear, then the climate models wouldn’t be so wrong. I agree that we know how CO2 reacts with both short wave and long wave IR. But would disagree that we understand how CO2 reacts within the atmosphere system.
“goldminor says:
January 27, 2014 at 8:53 pm”
I didn’t read it that way. He said;
“Pippen Kool says:
January 27, 2014 at 4:27 pm
CO2 is not alone in having dramatic effects at low concentrations. Compare to the level of it’s sister molecule, carbon monoxide, which kills in the 600 ppm level and at the present levels of CO2, if it doesn’t kill you, it gives you a hell of headache.”
Talks of “dramatic effects at low concentrations” (CO2). Concetrations of ~1000 – ~1500ppm in comercial greenhouses, ~800ppm in your own home with windows closed, ~2500ppm in some offices, ~8500ppm in submarines and no adverse effects. We exhale at ~40,000ppm. Apollo 13 got to about 1.5%, or ~15,000ppm with symptoms begining to show. But it’s not only concenrataion, it’s length time of exposure too. All the available information about CO concentrations and it’s effects on humans is typically after being exposed for an hour or more. Most CO meters alarm at between 40 and 100ppm.
Dramatic effects of CO2 do happen at low concentrations, plants start to die off below ~150ppm.
Here is a summation of my responses to the various criticisms of the article:
Most of the criticism seems to come from CO2 dwell time which I understand is unknown, but since 98% of all CO2 emitted into the atmosphere each year is reabsorbed by the oceans and plants I don’t see that it matters. It does not matter where the CO2 comes from, just how much CO2 there is at any point in time. The sun does not prefer one CO2 molecule over another.
I don’t think the human contribution to CO2 is .45 seats per year. According to the Mauna Loa record, atmospheric CO2 rose from 394.28 ppm in December 2012, to 396.81 ppm in December 2013, and increase of 2.53 ppm in a year. If the human contribution to atmospheric CO2 is 3% of the yearly output, then 3% of 2.53 ppm is 0.0759 ppm.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
If you wrongly assume that the human contribution to CO2 is .5 ppm per year then since the year 1850 the human contribution would be 81.5 ppm out of the total rise of CO2 over that period of 150 ppm, which would make the human contribution of the rise at 54.33%. How could a human contribution of 3% of the yearly CO2 output become 54% of the increase? Why does nature prefer the human 3% over nature’s 97%. Besides, in 1951 we can hardly assume that humans contributed 3% of CO2, but rather it started out at tenths or hundredths of a percent and gradually rose to the 3-4% we see today.
As far as the “poison” argument is concerned I posted this:
At certain levels everything is beneficial to life, even cyanide, and everything is a poison at certain levels, the only question is at what point does the harm outweigh the benefits?
The alchemist Paracelsus wrote that “all things are poison and nothing is without poison, only the dose makes something not a poison”.
http://www.grc.nia.nih.gov/branches/lns/BestinSmallDoses.pdf
The aim of this article was to show two things, first, the percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere compared to other gasses, and second the human contribution of CO2 in the atmosphere; nothing more or less.
Finally, living in America as I do I use a football stadium for my example (considering my audience). If I had lived in another country I’m sure I would use another term. I assumed that everyone reading this article would just think about another venue of similar size.
Willis Eschenbach says “… I don’t see the point of the analogy. Your argument seems to be, CO2 is only a trivially small part of the atmosphere, so we can ignore it.
However, compare it with something like say cyanide. The percentage of cyanide that someone slips into their business partner’s breakfast may be as small as the percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere … but the reality of the world is, some things have effects that go far, far beyond their level of concentration.”
Willis, this is not comparing like with like. I worked in a laboratory for many years, and rest assured that below a certain concentration many substances are totally unreactive – and the molecular reasons for such unreactivity vary. Unless proven otherwise, I think it’s fair to comment on the low concentration of CO2 in this way. And here’s an important point. As I never cease to point out, why hasn’t anyone in ‘climate science’ conducted an experiment (a real one, not a computer calculation) to show the effects of CO2 at varying concentrations in the presence of water (also at varying concentrations) and other atmospheric gases? Yes, it’s not the real world, but at least there would be some verifiable experimental data to show that ‘x’ amount of CO2 causes ‘x’ amount of warming under controlled conditions. Also, has anyone examined what actually happens in the atmosphere at the molecular level? To me, it’s not inconceivable that there’s some interaction between CO2 and water vapour.
“It’s not Argon that is 0.9% of the atmosphere, its water (H2O) that is around 1%.”
This seems to be very difficult for many people. Water is not a gas, ok?
I have several editions of a pilot’s manual, now close to edition 30 (sic!) — and in the old as in the new editions, they keep refering to water vapor as ‘gas’. This happens a lot in other, even scientific-minded writings.
Water is not a gas in the atmosphere. The states of water are defined by it’s boiling and freezing points (obviously). So at normal pressure, if your water, or atmosphere, is above freezing, but below boiling, water is liquid, i.e. the water in the atmosphere is liquid, not gaseous. Hence they call it ‘vapor’.
And so the contribution of water to the amosphere as a gas is 0%, not 0.9% – which is why Argon is 0.9% and H2O is not on the chart at all.
An interesting way of trying to convey numbers, although as others have latched onto this does not provide an understanding of the role of CO2, though I feel the author had no such intention. As is widely understood on this site the role of carbon dioxide is complex, all the more so from not being linear, what more of it will do remains uncertain and not truly predictable at the moment.
Water vapor, the most significant Greenhouse gas of all, comes from natural sources and is responsible for about 95% of the “Greenhouse effect.” This is common knowledge amongst real scientists, but is ignored by all those with financial interests, certain governmental groups and so-called news reporters, especially in the BBC. Conceding that it is “a little misleading” to leave water vapor out of their pronunciations, they defend their practice by saying that it’s “customary” to do so. So that’s all right then. The BBC might as well issue this statement: “We, at the BBC, will continue to deliberately mislead, deceive and lie to you about real climate science because it is ‘customary’ practice.”
Much of the scientific establishment and all the green “activists” have forgotten their elementary school biology about photosynthesis and the carbon cycle. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has declared carbon dioxide to be a “dangerous pollutant” under the Clean Air Act. That’s how insane they are. The other thing they “forget” to mention is that carbon dioxide has a half-life of just five years*, which means that nearly all the CO2 produced over five years ago has long disappeared into the sea and the Earth’s biosphere. Those talking about how the West’s developed economies have been wrecking the atmosphere “for centuries” are either ignorant of that simple scientific fact or lying.
*IPCC reports in 1995 and 2001 revised the lower limit of the lifetime estimate down to only five years. The 2007 IPCC report removed the table from the “Policymaker Summary,” and added in the “Executive Summary” of Chapter 7 on the carbon cycle: “About half of a CO2 pulse to the atmosphere is removed over a timescale of 30 years; a further 30% is removed within a few centuries; and the remaining 20% will typically stay in the atmosphere for many thousands of years” (Denman et al 2007, page 501). Some climate models calculate CO2 remaining in the atmosphere 1,000 years and others put it at 20,000 years, which only goes to show how useless all the climate models are.
In addition to being a massive distraction as to the enormous advantages an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide bestows upon the Earth, the rate at which CO2 is absorbed back into the biosphere, whether it be 14 months, five years or 20,000 years, is irrelevant in any case. Many have tried to tag carbon dioxide as a pollutant simply because it is a product of fossil fuel combustion. But carbon dioxide is also a product of respiration, fermentation and putrefaction. Carbon dioxide released by the combustion of fossil fuels had previously been taken from the atmosphere by photosynthetic organisms and converted into organic compounds to be used in their metabolic functions as structures for reproduction, etc. When those photosynthetic organisms later died, their remains were subjected to geological processes that converted the organic matter into oil, coal and methane. Those products are the fossil fuels that we use today to power our industries and vehicles; therefore, we are only returning carbon dioxide to the place it once occupied during the Carboniferous Period. Carbon dioxide cannot then be considered a pollutant just because it is released back into the atmosphere by the combustion of organic fuels and from many other natural processes unrelated with life.
Politicians and so-called “green” activists write about “carbon” (because they seemingly can’t manage the whole phrase ‘carbon dioxide’) as though it is something alien to this planet and the life-forms which inhabit it. May I take this opportunity to inform You, that you, along with nearly every living thing on Earth, are a carbon-based life-form, and all the food you ever eat during your life is composed of and based on carbon. And what made all this possible? The vector gas known as carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide’s “residence time” can be as little as ten minutes, or several years, depending on whether there is plant life nearby to absorb the gas, and animals or insects nearby to consume that plant growth. It is all a bit more complex than most imagine, but that is the case.
Idiots who claim that we must reduce the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere are wholly ignorant of the life processes which depend upon this rare gas, the reasons why its concentration varies over time irrespective of the actions of the planet’s inhabitants, and the effects of its varying concentration levels in the atmosphere over time.
The plain truth is that whatever the climate is doing it is neither caused by or can be influenced by any so-called “remedial action” by humans. “Fighting climate change” is probably the stupidest phrase in the English language, and is only used by those with a financial or other interest in perpetuating the biggest fraud in history. The “fighting climate change” business generates about $600 billion annually worldwide.
Six bosses at the British Government’s Green Investment Bank receive higher salaries than the Prime Minister (£142,500). The Cabinet Office’s list of high-earning public officials and civil servants shows five of the seven highest paid are employed by the Bank, each earning between £275,000 and £335,000.
As required by law, the White House delivered to Congress a report stating in Fiscal Year 2013, which ended on September 30, the US government spent $22,195,000,000 on climate change matters. The main categories are: US Global Change Research Program $2.463 Billion; Clean Energy Technologies $5.783 Billion, International Assistance $797 Million; Natural Resources Adaptation $95 Million; Energy Tax Provisions That May Reduce Greenhouse Gases $4.999 Billion; Energy Payments in Lieu of Tax Provisions $8.080 Billion. The $8.080 Billion buys a lot of lobbying power for the wind and solar industries.
These expenditures further support SEPP’s earlier estimates that since 1993, the US has spent over $150 Billion on climate change. The updated figure is over $165 Billion. The climate establishment is well funded, but it still cannot provide an accurate answer to the critical question of how sensitive is the planet to a doubling of atmospheric CO2.
The deeper issue here is not that the political action now strangling western economies is politically motivated, but that accepting the arguments for seeing global warming alarmism as sheer political fraud means accepting that the talking heads citing science to sell it to the masses are either deluded or dishonest – but because no wolf today doesn’t mean no wolf tomorrow, it also means that the politicization and corruption of the research process has destroyed the credibility of all involved, and thus as having greatly weakened the world’s ability to recognize and respond to a real threat should one now materialize.