The McIntyre chronology on the #spiritofmawson 'ship of fools'

Steve McIntyre has taken the time to create a well annotated and sourced timeline on the #spiritofmawson expedition.

He writes:

Like many others, I’ve been intrigued by the misadventures of the Ship of Fools. Dozens of tourist vessels visit the Antarctic without becoming trapped by ice. So it’s entirely valid to inquire into why the one tourist vessel led by a “climate scientist” became trapped by ice.

The leader of the expedition, Chris Turney (also a secondary Climategate correspondent and co-signer of Lewandowsky’s multisignatory letter in the Conversation), claimed that the incident could not have been predicted. He said that they were trapped by a sudden “breakout” of multi-year ice (“fast ice”) that had previously been part of the ice shelf and that there was no way that they could have anticipated this. Turney’s claim has been uncritically accepted by the climate community e.g. Turner of the British Antarctica Survey here.

However, like other recent claims by Turney, this claim is bogus. In fact, Turney was trapped by sea ice that had been mobile throughout December 2013. This can be easily seen by examining readily available MODIS imagery (see MODIS here) leading up to the incident, as I’ll do in today’s post.

Read it all here:

Ship of Fools

 

 

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Tom J
January 15, 2014 7:57 pm

Pamela Gray
January 15, 2014 at 6:51 pm
says:
‘Scute: you think YOU have a problem! I clicked on the McIntyre’s site and now have red wine spewed all over my computer screen!!!!’
That’s good to hear. Since you told me I owed you one I’ve been saving up my money for a long time to buy you one so it’s nice to know it’s now McIntyre’s responsibility.
BTW: I have the same problem Scute has and I thought it was just me.

jdgalt
January 15, 2014 8:39 pm

Did this ice come loose as a result of melting in Antarctica? Because I’m sure that’s what the warmists will say, that it proves they were right rather than proving they were fools.

pat
January 15, 2014 9:27 pm

in Steve’s comments, someone mentions Alok Jha’s article about Turney & Carbonscape way back in 2009. the ever-incestuous CAGW crowd! here’s the link.
2009: Guardian: Alok Jha: ‘Biochar’ goes industrial with giant microwaves to lock carbon in charcoal
Climate expert claims to have developed cleanest way of fixing CO2 in ‘biochar’ for burial on an industrial scale
Chris Turney, a professor of geography at the University of Exeter, said that by burying the charcoal produced from microwaved wood, the carbon dioxide absorbed by a tree as it grows can remain safely locked away for thousands of years. The technique could take out billions of tonnes of CO2 from the atmosphere every year…
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/mar/13/charcoal-carbon
i’ve also posted the following in the comments, as someone mentioned it without giving a link:
LINK for New Zealand Dept. of Conservation’s denial of support for the Expedition.
http://taxpayers.org.nz/blogs/news/11472529-good-work-doc-but-questions-about-aae-claiming-support

Colorado Wellington
January 15, 2014 9:44 pm

@Scute
J
@Pamela Gray
Re: iPhone browser problem with climateaudit.org (and other display mishaps)
Climate Audit has had a problem with the iPhone browser for a while. I think it is caused by the site detecting a mobile device and sending a different “mobile-specific” output that unfortunately doesn’t format properly.
Workaround: If you fast-scroll to the bottom of Steve’s page on an iPhone you will see the “View Full Site” hyperlink. Clicking on it will bring up the full site that formats properly. The page will now show the reverse hyperlink “View Mobile Site”. By clicking on it you would receive the unreadable mobile format again.
P.S. There is no solution to Pamela’s screen problem which is intrinsic to any inquiry into the esteemed professor’s excellent adventures in particular and CAGW in general. It occurs suddenly and without warning. I keep kitchen rags at hand.

u.k.(us)
January 15, 2014 10:18 pm

jdgalt says:
January 15, 2014 at 8:39 pm
Did this ice come loose as a result of melting in Antarctica? Because I’m sure that’s what the warmists will say, that it proves they were right rather than proving they were fools.
=========
It’s Her job to kill the weak ones, She tried.

J. Herbst
January 15, 2014 11:31 pm

Why will somebody stick to his (possibly wrong) decisions or point of view? Because he always will search for something which supports it. As does Turney.
https://twitter.com/ProfChrisTurney/status/421915132373921794
And he gets a lot of angry respones. I wouldn’d feel well being him…. Here is his supporting science paper:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jqs.2683/full
ABSTRACT
The stability of Antarctic ice sheets and their potential contribution to sea level under projected future warming remains highly uncertain. The Last Interglacial (135 000–116 000 years ago) provides a potential analogue, with global temperatures 2 °C higher and rates of sea-level rise >5.6 m ka−1, leading to sea levels 6.6–9.4 m higher than present. The source(s) of this sea-level rise remain fiercely debated. Here we report a series of independent model simulations exploring the effects of migrating Southern Hemisphere Westerlies (SHWs) on Southern Ocean circulation and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics. We suggest that southerly shifts in winds may have significantly impacted the sub-polar gyres, inducing pervasive warming (0.2–0.8 °C in the upper 1200 m) adjacent to sectors of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS), which due to their geometries and connectivity to the Southern Ocean are highly sensitive to ocean forcing. We conclude that the EAIS potentially made a substantial, hitherto unsuspected, contribution to interglacial sea levels, and given 21st-century projections in the Southern Annular Mode and associated SHW migration, we highlight how pervasive circum-Antarctic warming may threaten EAIS stability.
Kind of research stuff of “What will will happen if something will happen”.
As Global Warming is reality for them, any conclusion based on that believe will be support for them.

J. Herbst
January 15, 2014 11:51 pm

Longing to see Antarctica?
The Turney voyage costed 1.5 Millions +++ (Rescue etc..)
There are cheaper offers now:
Highlights of Antarctiaca starts from 4720 bucks.
But the Shackleton Odysey will cost you dear: 11900 bucks
Still cheaper than the Tuney Odysey…
http://www.worldexpeditions.com/uk/index.php?section=about_us&id=363722
Plus: These travels are annouced to be green and responsibel… Who knows?

January 16, 2014 12:24 am

It seems that John Turner of the British Antarctic Survey has some difficult questions to answer about his competence and independence.
He seems a very gullible and ill-informed chap.
Not sure he’s the sort you’ld want to rely on in a hostile environment.

Jimbo
January 16, 2014 12:38 am

Steve McIntyre has given the frozen Mr. McTurkey a good grilling.
J. Herbst says:”……And he gets a lot of angry respones. I wouldn’d feel well being him…. Here is his supporting science paper:…..”
Mr. Turkey points to East Antarctica’s ice sensitivity to ocean warming and sea level rise to back his alarmist rubbish. He probably missed this paper just like he missed the sea ice that trapped his butt.

7 JUN 2013
Recent snowfall anomalies in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, in a historical and future climate perspective
[1] Enhanced snowfall on the East Antarctic ice sheet is projected to significantly mitigate 21st century global sea level rise. In recent years (2009 and 2011), regionally extreme snowfall anomalies in Dronning Maud Land, in the Atlantic sector of East Antarctica, have been observed. It has been unclear, however, whether these anomalies can be ascribed to natural decadal variability, or whether they could signal the beginning of a long-term increase of snowfall……….
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 40, Issue 11, pages 2684–2688, 16 June 2013
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50559/abstract

The IPCC says they don’t know why Antarctica sea ice extent is so high. The IPCC projects more snow for Antarctica at the end of this century. The point is they need to let go of Antarctica, there is nothing alarming going on there at all, no matter how hard and fast they wave their arms and heads.

Jimbo
January 16, 2014 12:54 am

Questions are being asked of Chris Turney.
http://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2014/01/chris-turney-lied-support-institutions/
Swimming fish frozen by surprise just of the coast of the island of Lovund, Norway. Images provided.
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/oddnews/it-got-so-cold-so-quickly-in-this-norweigan-bay-that-it-froze-a-bunch-of-fish-swimming-in-it-232504960.html

Jimbo
January 16, 2014 1:00 am

A rebuttal in Nature from the Australian Antarctic Division (AAD) who are not too pleased about Mr. Turkey’s earlier Nature article. Ouch!

Nature – 15 January, 2014
…On page 291 of this issue, Nick Gales, chief scientist of the AAD, which is based in Kingston, Tasmania, responds to an earlier Nature column by expedition head Chris Turney of the University of New South Wales (see Nature 505, 133; 2014)….
http://www.nature.com/news/researchers-question-rescued-polar-expedition-1.14510

ConfusedPhoton
January 16, 2014 1:30 am

Steve McIntyre’s forensic analysis of the timeline of event is very good, Though, I am still at a loss as to why they were caught in the ice. My experience of Russian captains who work in the polar oceans, are that they are very experienced with a good record of safety. It is surprising that the captain did not take the appropriate action to avoid being trapped. It was the captain’s decision to call for a rescue and it should have been his decision to ask for the tourists evacuation. Although with hindsight the ship did not appear to be in significant danger. The inquiry should shed light on some of these questions.

Gail Combs
January 16, 2014 2:04 am

Mark Nutley says:
January 15, 2014 at 2:34 pm
Posts 1,2 and 4 are the same person, I do not see three different people writing “Prophessor”, socks be bad.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
“Prophessor” comes from a comment made on Steve’s Climate Audit site by Curious George
Posted Jan 15, 2014 at 3:17 PM who also made the comment here.
You also need to look at the time stamps.
Curious George January 15, 2014 at 12:12 pm (Who comments frequently at Jo Nova’s site.)
Ric Werme says: January 15, 2014 at 12:22 pm who does the guide to WUWT: http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/index.html
Theo Goodwin says: January 15, 2014 at 12:27 pm

Gail Combs
January 16, 2014 2:23 am

Theo Goodwin says: January 15, 2014 at 6:47 pm
juan slayton says: January 15, 2014 at 2:38 pm
Give Nancy a “Well Done. “ConPhesser” just keeps on giving.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
So that makes him ConPhesser Chris(tmas) Turkey. The gift that just keeps on giving.
“The Sip of Fools”
1 banana mashed with peanut butter, add 42 jiggers of Wild Turkey, 22 jiggers of the finest Russian Vodka ( Smirnoff of course) shake vigorously with lots of ice and top with fluffy whipped cream to conceal the real contents. Serve in a punch bowl.

Eli Rabett
January 16, 2014 2:33 am

Getting stuck in Anarctic pack ice is not unusal. The Aurora Australis was stuck for three weeks into December which is the major cause the slippage in its schedule. A tourist ship with 100 on board, a Russian icebreaker, the Kapitan Khlebnikov was caught in 2009.
Of course, such inconvenient facts are not to be mentioned.

Gail Combs
January 16, 2014 2:51 am

Jimbo says: January 16, 2014 at 12:54 am
..Swimming fish frozen by surprise just of the coast of the island of Lovund, Norway. Images provided.
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/oddnews/it-got-so-cold-so-quickly-in-this-norweigan-bay-that-it-froze-a-bunch-of-fish-swimming-in-it-23
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Incredible photos. The photo of the moose frozen in the lake at the bottom of the page, reminds me of the mammoth found frozen with buttercups in the mouth.

Steve
January 16, 2014 3:31 am

Jimbo says:
January 16, 2014 at 12:38 am
…no matter how hard and fast they wave their arms and heads.
***********************************
Bet that’s what those tourists were doing when they saw the Chinese helicopter.

Rob Ricket
January 16, 2014 6:13 am

Turney is clearly delusional and in denial:
“Alongside the daily programme of talks, the team have been working hard on the analysis of the scientific data we have collected. Erik and Chris have been working on the salinity and temperature analyses made during the voyage south and around Commonwealth Bay. Chris Fogwill has been drilling down with New Zealand and German colleagues into the origins of the sea ice breakout event that trapped the Shokalskiy.”
http://www.spiritofmawson.com/846/
Here we see that Turney’s concern for the evils of CO2 takes a backseat to his affection for the coin:
Kiwi Company Claims World First for Charcoal
A world-first invention was unveiled in Blenheim in New Zealand this week with a multi-billion dollar earning potential and the ability to impact on carbon capture on a global scale. Carbonscape has developed and patented a process for manufacturing charcoal using microwave energy – a vastly more energy efficient process than what is currently used.
The company has begun batch-scale production but hopes to raise capital to scale up to a fully-integrated continuous production. Carbonscape says that its technology can address existing biowaste streams and that it has been invited to its their technology on pine waste on site in commercial forests.
Turney’s introduction to the concept:
charcoalFortunately, however, we know from scientific studies that charcoal can store carbon for thousands of years. Ancient fires preserved in archaeological sites, including those found with ancient human remains, show carbon can be stable for thousands of years. This is because charcoal is highly resistant to microbial breakdown. Once formed, the charcoal effectively keeps the carbon out of the atmosphere and ocean for virtually indefinite periods.
We’ve taken this idea a step further at Carbonscape. Developing an industrial-scale unit, we’re converting wood waste and other biomass into charcoal. Our proprietary industrial microwave technology means that in spite of the energy used during production, the carbon captured draws down significantly more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere than it produces. Each industrial-scale unit converts 40-50% of wood debris into charcoal; one tonne of carbon dioxide can be fixed as charcoal per day. By converting carbon in organic material to charcoal, it can be then put into the ground where it does the most good.
At Carbonscape we hope we’re adding a new commercial reason for reforestation. Once wood has been turned into charcoal, the cleared area can be replanted, allowing us to repeat the process when the plants have matured, effectively sucking yet more carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. A great example is the USA: if the 200 million hectares of forest used for timber production were turned to charcoal instead, each crop rotation would help bring carbon dioxide levels down by some 10 parts per million. And it’s not just potatoes or wood that can be turned into charcoal: other organic material (even sewage) can be turned into a permanent carbon sink.
The possibilities for fixing carbon are truly enormous.
http://www.rexresearch.com/carbonscape/carbonscape.htm
The man is clearly demented if he seriously thinks we should grow forests of trees to burn off in microwave ovens. Furthermore, the entire notion belies an elementary knowledge of Chemistry. That is to say, the process of “microwaving” organic materials must release CO2 in the same way a wood fire releases CO2. Accordingly, it should come as no shock that the Carbonscape website is no longer functioning:
http://carbonscape.com/

DCA
January 16, 2014 7:07 am

The Nature articles have a certain defender for Turney, Nathan or Nate Drake. He has made more comments than all the others combined and has written what seems like more than twice the number of words as all others.
I posted a few comments about his constant .use of the “D” word and also posted a link to this blog in which he refers to Steve as a “funded science denialist, and his claims have been debunked by peer-reviewed literature ad nauseam.” He also refers to Steve as “a economist and not a scientist”.
I also questioned him about his name “Nathan Drake” which is a toy action figure and he claimed it was his own. Richard Tol replied, “Below you write “[Nathan Drake] is my real name”. Above you write you are “an oceanographer with over a decade of experience with shipborne research”. There are no oceanographers called Nathan Drake known to any search engine.” I believe him to be a paid PR hack perhaps hired by Turney or “The Team” to defend their antics.
Perhaps others can visit the Nature article to defend Steve’s good name.
http://www.nature.com/news/this-was-no-antarctic-pleasure-cruise-1.14466
http://www.nature.com/news/researchers-question-rescued-polar-expedition-1.14510

Steve
January 16, 2014 7:32 am

DCA says:
January 16, 2014 at 7:07 am
Onto it. This will be fun. /no sarc

Jeff
January 16, 2014 7:39 am

One wonders if “Nathan Drake” is Turney himself….

January 16, 2014 9:05 am

Eli the Annoying Bunnyboi,
It is about stupidity and rank hypocrisy. Those eco-loons either believed their own nonsense — that the Antarctic was ice free, and they thought they were smart, or they were out to show the world they were right.
Neither one was true.

mpainter
January 16, 2014 9:06 am

Chris Turney: another global warming fool who makes an ass of himself, scientific and otherwise.
But there is no shortage of those, is there? They make piss-poor science but good viewing.

Sherp
January 16, 2014 11:20 am

This has been and continues to be so much fun. No holiday dull drums here thanks to the “fools”. Another 7 days for them tossing and turning on the icebreaker. “Who’s idea was it to take a helicopter?”

Resourceguy
January 16, 2014 11:24 am

Now send the bill for $3.0 million for rescue costs and related expenses and show the penalty amount after the due date.

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