Aurora Australis rescue ship told to hold position to potentially assist Chinese vessel Xue Long

It looks like the “rescued” climate scientists, journalists, and tourists will have to wait on-board the Aurora Australis awhile longer while this episode plays out. There is still a lot of ice ahead according to the webcam on Aurora Australis (seen below) which had been slowed to a crawl, making only 1/4 knot.

A140030701A[1]

Press release: 4.30pm AEDT Friday 03 January 2014

Aurora Australis on standby as a precautionary measure

Xue Long notified AMSA at 1pm AEDT this afternoon it has concerns about their ability to move through heavy ice in the area.  

The Aurora Australis has been placed on standby by the Australian Maritime Safety Authority’s (AMSA) Rescue Coordination Centre Australia (RCC Australia) to remain in open water in the area as a precautionary measure.

The Xue Long has advised RCC Australia that it will attempt to manoeuvre through the ice when tidal conditions are most suitable during the early hours of 4 January 2014.

There is no immediate danger to personnel on board the Xue Long.

www.amsa.gov.au/media

Source: http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/documents/030114UpdateAntartica.pdf

==============================================================

Meanwhile, the beginning of this domino effect has been traced back to a sightseeing expedition by the passengers of the Akademik Shokalskiy that spent too much time getting back on the ship.

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Tom J
January 3, 2014 8:33 am

Perhaps this is all the result of “rotten ice.”
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/14/a-look-at-sea-ice-compared-to-this-date-in-2007/
But, since we’re talking about the Antarctic now and not the Arctic (I got it right for once!) maybe it’s much worse than rotten ice that continues to maroon our enterprising explorers. Maybe it’s maggot infested ice.

Phaaz Spaas
January 3, 2014 8:44 am

But M.Courtney most pro-AGW scientists would actually say that “Global Warming isn’t uniform”. In fact many anti-AGW people would say the same as pretty much everyone agrees that there has been at least some global warming over the last hundred years, the disagreement being over how much and what the causes are. So why the straw-man argument?
The problem with most anti-AGW comment is that it is often ad hominem (big exception being Steve MacIntyre of course and there are others). It would be more convincing if the scientific case against AGW could be made. While the floundering of the Australian Antarctic Expedition is being ‘enjoyed’ by people who are anti-AGW the incident itself, funny or otherwise (the Xue Long is now in difficulty), provides no evidence for either side of the argument.
Both sides of this discussion need to stick with science to make their point.

Chris4692
January 3, 2014 8:48 am

I am contemplating the dynamics how one ice breaker would rescue another. As one would approach, there would be extreme danger from the movement of one icebreaker shifting the pressures from the ice and pushing into the hull of the other. There must be something more to it: a distance or angle of approach that has to be maintained? Or does one shift the ice about so the other can proceed? Does someone know anything about it?

Sweet Old Bob
January 3, 2014 8:56 am

Maybe the Snow Dragon needs her name changed to Ice Draggin !
Would surely be more descriptive of reality!

Doug Huffman
January 3, 2014 8:58 am

negrum says: January 3, 2014 at 8:31 am “Do you know the most recent date a nuclear icebreaker crossed the equator?”
What is supposed to be so special about a nuclear icebreaker power plant to so limit the question? In general, marine nuclear power plants are not restricted in their operations by environmental concerns, but only political issues. I remember 28F and 87F injection temperatures.

AlexS
January 3, 2014 8:58 am

“It would be more convincing if the scientific case against AGW could be made. ”
It is the AGW supporters that have to present a scientific case, not the other way around. . Until today they haven’t , worse, they lie, they manipulate.

negrum
January 3, 2014 8:59 am

Phaaz Spaas says:
January 3, 2014 at 8:44 am
“Both sides of this discussion need to stick with science to make their point.”
—–
You feel that those supporting CAGW (very different from AGW ) have been using a scientific approach?I would be most grateful if you could point out the instances where they have employed scientific standards and methods to reach their conclusions, since I can’t seem to find them.
It may be that you are confusing AGW with CAGW. As far as I can make out this blog does not contest that AGW exists, but the level of catastrophe attributed to it.

negrum
January 3, 2014 9:01 am

Doug Huffman says:
January 3, 2014 at 8:58 am
What is supposed to be so special about a nuclear icebreaker power plant to so limit the question? In general, marine nuclear power plants are not restricted in their operations by environmental concerns, but only political issues. I remember 28F and 87F injection temperatures.
—–
My knowledge is limited about nuclear reactors. I just wondered if you knew.

Stanb999
January 3, 2014 9:13 am

One intresting point… is the ship is currently 67 degrees south. the water is still filled with ice in summer. Here is a webpage of city 67 north… http://www.bodo.no/wips/1251439321/

Fred Harwood
January 3, 2014 9:14 am

Some aircraft carries have nuclear power plants, and serve around the world, cold, warm, hot ocean waters.

negrum
January 3, 2014 9:17 am

Fred Harwood says:
January 3, 2014 at 9:14 am
—–
Thanks. That seems to cover it.

pat
January 3, 2014 9:27 am

GaryEssex –
de Losa was interviewed by NBC with no mention of the following detail. u can also find doodle4google in a drop-down from “Science Outreach” at:
http://www.spiritofmawson.com/
The 15-year-old’s design was deemed the very best of thousands of entries from across the country in the Doodle for Google competition.
It will now be splashed across the Australian landing page of the world’s biggest search engine operator, Google.
For her award-winning design, Olivia wins a Chromebook and $10,000 worth of technology for her school.
Her teacher, Nicole De Losa, wins an expedition to Antarctica to bring knowledge back to her students.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/the-hills/hornsby-student-olivia-kongs-brain-matter-design-googles-favourite/story-fngr8i1f-1226757525133

dougieh
January 3, 2014 9:36 am

@Andyj at 2:11 am
in notice from your second video link (dated Mon 25 Nov 2013 at about 1:20 mts in) the commentator states the expedition will comprise – “an 85 person team including 60 scientists…”
wonder where all them extra scientists are hiding ?

Gail Combs
January 3, 2014 9:36 am

Phaaz Spaas says: January 3, 2014 at 8:44 am
…Both sides of this discussion need to stick with science to make their point.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
We did originally and we lost because CAGW is not and never has been about climate but about control the masses and wealth transfer. More over the man on the street doesn’t know diddly about science but they can understand politicians grabbing their hard earned money and giving it to buddies while the poor and pensioners freeze to death. So I am very sure you would like us to go back to discussing science that the average voter can not understand.
If one side (skeptics) is starved for funds and is completely closed out from the discussion in the media while the other side gets lavish funds for idiotic boondoggles and ALL the media coverage, sooner or later people finally figure it out. That is CAGW’s Achillies Heel and that is where the discussion has to be.
It is about MONEY not science and the transfer is from the poor to the rich. Enron, joined by BP, invented the global warming industry. I know because I was in the room.
International Monetary Fund Report September 2012: In many countries the distribution of income has become more unequal, and the top earners’ share of income in particular has risen dramatically. In the United States the share of the top 1 percent has close to tripled over the past three decades, now accounting for about 20 percent of total U.S. income (Alvaredo and others, 2012).
FOLLOW THE MONEY! link and link
I have spent years following the money trail as well as the science. The money trail is glaringly obvious if you bother to look.
Try Shell Oil’s Ged Davis for an example or the World Bank’s Robert Watson.

kwinterkorn
January 3, 2014 9:42 am

Both science and politics are involved in the CAGW movement, and the entrapment of the ships in the Antarctic sea raise issues for both that are inconvenient.
It was a deep strategic political mistake for the warmists to bring so much attention to the Antarctic. Regulars at WUWT know that though Arctic sea ice is down since the 1970’s, Antarctic sea ice is up by a greater amount, so that global sea ice is up overall.
This is very inconvenient to the CAGW cause for several reasons. Consider just one: one of the supposed positive feedbacks adding to the fear of catastrophic warming is the albedo effect of reduced sea ice leading more solar radiation to absorbed by the Earth (rather than reflected back into space). But the reality is that more sea ice is now present, hence a negative feedback is in place, contributing to global cooling.
Far better for the CAGW’ers to distract attention away from the South pole, where the news is inconvenient to their case. The news may get worse if the ships are not freed before the Antarctic fall weather sets in and the ice gets worse. The ship(s) could be stuck for years, or at least until next southern summer. Every attempt to free them will be on display in the media and will be bad political news for the CAGW’ers.
The global spotlight will be on the enlarging Antarctic sea. The attempts to portray the rising volume of Antarctic sea ice as a consequence of rising CO2 will be understood by most to be asinine

Rob Ricket
January 3, 2014 9:52 am

Doug,
Obviously, I did not carefully read your post before responding. During the process of trying to extricate myself from this rather difficult position, I uncovered some stats on Diesel Icebreaker fuel burn rates, which lends credence to earlier links I posted indicating the A.A. will return to Hobart:
“Even the best ice-breakers with a diesel power plant carry fuel for no more than 30-40 days. In the harsh conditions of the Arctic it is clearly not enough: the fight against ice requires a great deal of fuel. During an hour a powerful icebreaker often burns up to three tons of oil. While fuel accounted for nearly one-third the weight of the ice in the Arctic period, a ship would have to repeatedly enter the base to take fuel. There have been cases where caravans of ships winter in the polar ice only because fuel for ledokolah faded away early.”
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/92m.htm
Other than the Wikki link this is the only other source containing the cold-water requirement verbiage, but I have no reason to doubt your eyewitness account.
“Built entirely for service in the Arctic seas, the Yamal is unable to voyage to the Antarctic because of her cooling system. This requires that it be supplied with cold sea water to operate properly, if the ship were to voyage to Antarctica it would have to cross the equator and sail through the tropics where the water is most definitely warm. Hence the Yamal and her sister ships are confined to the Northern polar region.”
http://www.coolantarctica.com/Antarctica%20fact%20file/ships/Yamal_ice_breaker.htm

jorgekafkazar
January 3, 2014 10:12 am

Clovis Marcus says: “The Guardian would love you to think it was all over. Yesterday Alok Jha (@AlokJha on twitter) filed a report about the rescue. The subhead said clearly the crew had been rescued. I have brought the ‘error’ to Alok’s attention. They have had 8 hours to correct it. It is starting to look less like a typical guardian sub’s mistake than a deliberate attempt to deceive.”
It’s difficult to believe that the Guardian doesn’t know the difference between passengers and crew except in the more inclusive sense that the Guardian makes no distinction between facts and lies, logic and insanity, freedom and tyranny.

January 3, 2014 10:30 am

Gail Combs says January 3, 2014 at 9:36 am

It is about MONEY not science and the transfer is from the poor to the rich.

We keep hearing this, it made little sense the fist time, and it soon falls on deaf ears; HOW are funds continually xferred from the poor rich? This defies something in economics on a par with one (or more) of the ‘laws’ of thermodynamics (heat energy xfers from warm objects to cold).
Besides, don’t you or your husband’s retirement accounts/Mutual funds potentially own shares in Exxon-Mobil? So, in that case who are the ‘owners’?
.

January 3, 2014 10:40 am

re: Rob Ricket says January 3, 2014 at 9:52 am
Rob, some of the Russian nuclear-powered ice breakers seem to use this power plant design: “KLT-40 reactor”. Google returns sufficient information to determine how much ‘cooling’ water would be required to cool a power plant capable of generating the 130 to 170 or so MWt (thermal) energy a KLT-40 plant is capable of producing.
The IAEA reviews a proposal (below) to implement this power plant into ‘floating’ seaside electrical generating stations that could be towed to a pier where it could then ‘feed the grid’:
http://www.iaea.org/NuclearPower/Downloadable/aris/2013/25.KLT-40S.pdf
.

Editor
January 3, 2014 10:48 am

The Christmas Gift that keeps on giving! It’s getting to the point where we need a “12 Days of Christmas” (but not the song?) to summarize things. Hmm, 10 penguins leaping? 5 YouTube posts? 3 icebreakers broken? Oh dear.

Clay Marley
January 3, 2014 10:48 am

That “coolantarctica” article is the only place I can find that says the Russian Arktika Class nuclear icebreakers require cool water to operate. Other articles reference that one. Even if not true, all the Russian nuclear icebreakers are in the Arctic anyway; no way they could get half way across the planet to help.
I’ve also read that nuclear powered ships are prohibited in the Antarctic for environmental reasons. That may not be true either. But if so it leaves the Antarctic to some of the most fossil fuel inefficient vehicles on the planet.
These Arctic nuclear icebreakers are used mainly for clearing passages for cargo vehicles, and for North Pole tourism. Maybe there just isn’t enough demand for such a powerful icebreaker in the South.
Best I can tell the most capable icebreaker in the Antarctic is the US Polar Star.

January 3, 2014 10:55 am

So, when is the peak melting date for this area? Will that be enough to free these ships? Or does it depend on which way the wind blows?
This story seems to be dying in the media…even with the number of WUWT posters.

January 3, 2014 10:56 am

Phaaz Spaas:
At January 3, 2014 at 8:44 am you say

It would be more convincing if the scientific case against AGW could be made.

Clearly, you have not been paying attention, so let me inform you of the fundamentals of the “scientific case against AGW”.
Firstly, there is no evidence of discernible AGW; none, zilch, nada.
Please note the stark nature of my statement: it requires only one item of empirical evidence for it to be refuted. But there is no such evidence. If you can find one item of evidence for discernible AGW then you will surely be awarded at least one Nobel Prize because three decades of research conducted world-wide at a cost of over $5 billion per year has failed to find any. (In the 1990s Ben Santer claimed to have found such evidence but his claim was almost immediately shown to be an artifact of his having cherry-picked a subset from the data he assessed.)
Secondly, the Null Hypothesis applies.
The Null Hypothesis says it must be assumed a system has not experienced a change unless there is evidence of a change.
The Null Hypothesis is a fundamental scientific principle and forms the basis of all scientific understanding, investigation and interpretation. Indeed, it is the basic principle of experimental procedure where an input to a system is altered to discern a change: if the system is not observed to respond to the alteration then it has to be assumed the system did not respond to the alteration.
In the case of climate science there is a hypothesis that increased greenhouse gases (GHGs, notably CO2) in the air will increase global temperature. There are good reasons to suppose this hypothesis may be true, but the Null Hypothesis says it must be assumed the GHG changes have no effect unless and until increased GHGs are observed to increase global temperature. That is what the scientific method decrees. It does not matter how certain some people may be that the hypothesis is right because observation of reality (i.e. empiricism) trumps all opinions.
Please note that the Null Hypothesis is a hypothesis which exists to be refuted by empirical observation. It is a rejection of the scientific method to assert that one can “choose” any subjective Null Hypothesis one likes. There is only one Null Hypothesis: i.e. it has to be assumed a system has not changed unless it is observed that the system has changed.
However, deciding a method which would discern a change may require a detailed statistical specification.
In the case of global climate no unprecedented climate behaviours are observed so the Null Hypothesis decrees that the climate system has not changed.
Importantly, an effect may be real but not overcome the Null Hypothesis because it is too trivial for the effect to be observable. Human activities have some effect on global temperature for several reasons. An example of an anthropogenic effect on global temperature is the urban heat island (UHI). Cities are warmer than the land around them, so cities cause some warming. But the temperature rise from cities is too small to be detected when averaged over the entire surface of the planet, although this global warming from cities can be estimated by measuring the warming of all cities and their areas.
Clearly, the Null Hypothesis decrees that UHI is not affecting global temperature although there are good reasons to think UHI has some effect. Similarly, it is very probable that AGW from GHG emissions are too trivial to have observable effects.
The feedbacks in the climate system are negative and, therefore, any effect of increased CO2 will be probably too small to discern because natural climate variability is much, much larger. This concurs with the empirically determined values of low climate sensitivity.
Empirical – n.b. not model-derived – determinations indicate climate sensitivity is less than 1.0°C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 equivalent. This is indicated by the studies of
Idso from surface measurements
http://www.warwickhughes.com/papers/Idso_CR_1998.pdf
and Lindzen & Choi from ERBE satellite data
http://www.drroyspencer.com/Lindzen-and-Choi-GRL-2009.pdf
and Gregory from balloon radiosonde data
http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/OLR&NGF_June2011.pdf
Indeed, because climate sensitivity is less than 1.0°C for a doubling of CO2 equivalent, it is physically impossible for the man-made global warming to be large enough to be detected (just as the global warming from UHI is too small to be detected). If something exists but is too small to be detected then it only has an abstract existence; it does not have a discernible existence that has effects (observation of the effects would be its detection).
To date there are no discernible effects of AGW. Hence, the Null Hypothesis decrees that AGW does not affect global climate to a discernible degree. That is the ONLY scientific conclusion possible at present.
Thirdly, all – n.b. ALL – predictions of the AGW-hypothesis have failed.
In science an hypothesis is falsified if the hypothesis makes a prediction which is wrong.
The AGW-hypothesis induced several predictions which have all been wrong ; e,g.
Tropospheric ‘hot spot’ (failed to occur).
Reduced polar sea ice (polar sea ice has increased).
AGW would overwhelm natural climate variability to induce global warming (global warming stopped at least 17 years ago).
Committed warming would induce global warming at a rate of of 0.2°C per decade from 2000 to 2020 (no such warming has happened).
etc.
Now,
having done what you consider to be “more convincing” can we now return to the more important activity of ridiculing and reviling the activists who have created the fiasco of the Ship Of Fools?
Richard

January 3, 2014 10:57 am

Clay Marley says January 3, 2014 at 10:48 am

I’ve also read that nuclear powered ships are prohibited in the Antarctic for environmental reasons

A quick read of the ‘Treaty of the Antarctic’ (circa 1959) seems only to prohibit nuke b om b ‘testing’ and/or disposal of nuclear materials there, but, I didn’t study it in-depth so I could be in error on the finer points …
Snapshot of apparently applicable articles:
o Article 1 – The area to be used for peaceful purposes only; military activity, such as weapons testing, is prohibited but military personnel and equipment may be used for scientific research or any other peaceful purpose;
o Article 5 – The treaty prohibits nuclear explosions or disposal of radioactive wastes”
.

January 3, 2014 11:00 am

Sorry that the fromatting went wrong in my post. Richard