Today, while shopping at lunchtime for some last minute year end supplies, I got one of the strangest cell-phone calls ever. It was from my friend John Coleman, the founder of the Weather Channel and Chief meteorologist at KUSI-TV in San Diego. He was calling via cell phone from his car, and he was on his way into the TV station early.
He started off by saying, “Anthony, we have a really strange situation here”.
Then to my surprise, he relayed a conversation he had just had; a person on the Akademik Shokalskiy had reached out, because they didn’t have adequate weather data on-board. At first, I thought John was pulling my leg, but then as he gave more details, I realized he was serious.
What had happened was that the US Coast Guard had received a message from the ship, requesting weather and wind information for Antarctica. That got relayed to someone at the Scripps oceanographic Institute in San Diego, and it went to John’s weekend KUSI meteorologist Dave Scott. Dave had worked with a scientist who is now on the US Coast Guard IceBreaker Polar Star, and they had logged the request for weather for forecast data from Akademik Shokalskiy. That’s how all this got started.
The message was that they needed better weather information on the ship than they had, specifically about wind and how it might affect the breakup of sea ice. John asked me to gather everything I had on the area and send it, and also to help him contact Joe D’Aleo of WeatherBell Analytics, because somehow John’s cellphone had gotten stuck into some sort of “private caller” mode and Joe wasn’t answering his phone due to how the incoming call looked.
My first thought was that no matter how much we’ve been criticizing the expedition for its silliness, that if such a request had reached all the way from Antarctica to me, I’d do everything I could to help.
I told John “give me 15 minutes”, which was about the time I’d need to get out of COSTCO and get back to my office and send along some things I knew would help.
I immediately called Joe D’Aleo at WeatherBell, who was as incredulous as I at the request, and asked him to call John Coleman right away. I explained to him that we had to remember that we were dealing with a Russian ship, not a military ship, but a charter vessel and they likely didn’t have all the tools that American meteorologists had and may not even know where to look for better data. I also pointed out that the Australian scientists on-board were climatologists, and not operational weather forecasters, and finding this sort of weather data probably wasn’t in their skill set.
Joe started working from the WeatherBell end, I finished my shopping and headed back to the office. As I drove, I started thinking about the situation with the ship there. They had wind compressing the ice into shore, with the Akademik Shokalskiy in the middle, and the wind wasn’t changing. They needed a wind shift in order to ease the pressure on the ice but they had no idea when that might happen. It was a waiting game, and as we know, the longer a ship remains trapped in sea ice, the greater its chances of having a hull breach due to the pressure.
I knew just what to send, because it was something that had been discussed several times by commenters on WUWT.
When I got back to the office, I no more than pulled up the bookmark and press send on the email with a brief description of the operational weather data model that covered the region and John Coleman was on the phone again. He asked me to talk to Dave Scott and explain what I had just sent over. I called Dave immediately and relayed the email.
I sent a live link that provided this image of Antarctica, and I noted in a Tweet about the same time:
Just had a request for Antarctic wind and FC data come up via Scripps from #spiritofmawson ship. KUSI, WeatherBell, WUWT all happy to help.
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) December 31, 2013
This map shows winds for area ship is trapped in. Waiting for katabatic winds to return which will clear ice. pic.twitter.com/XqCU6NfWWK
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) December 31, 2013
Dave listened intently to my explanation and then thanked me saying “this is exactly what we need”. I then started to do some research into the extensive library of operational forecast products put together by our friend Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell which can be seen at http://models.weatherbell.com/ About that same time I get a new email from Joe D’Aleo, and he had sorted out the maps needed and had sent an email to John, Dave, and I.
In a couple of minutes John Coleman was back on the phone to me, he wanted my assessment of the maps. I had looked at what was happening and saw what I thought might be an opening in 7-8 days based on the forecast graphics from WeatherBell, where the winds would shift to offshore in the area where Akademik Shokalskiy was stuck. Like we discussed in the WUWT post yesterday Polynyas are very important for marine life and cooling the oceans I had hoped that a coastal polyna might open up near the ship. We also discussed the possibility of a low pressure system passing nearby that might help break up the ice. I didn’t express much hope for that.
The problem is that they are in a catch-22 now, they need strong offshore winds to help blow the sea ice out to open water, but at the same time they need calm or light winds for a safe helicopter rescue.
John Coleman and Dave Scott put together a video news story which ran on the KUSI 6PM News tonight. I was interviewed for the story, and you can watch it here:
http://www.kusi.com/video?clipId=9686594&autostart=true
Watching the wind is the key to the way out of the situation the Akademik Shokalskiy is in. This near real-time wind model is worth watching, and it updates every three hours with new observations, click on the image to start it.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=144.30,-66.68,3000
Note the green circle marker, which is the approximate location the Akademik Shokalskiy is at. Winds are running parallel to the coast, and pushing ice up against the edge of the Commonwealth Bay.
Despite the irony and folly of the situation, I’m sure readers will join me in the hope that everyone makes it off the ship safely, whether it is by helicopter or by the ship being freed from the ice.
Related articles
- All scientists and passengers to be taken off ship stuck in Antarctic Ice (wattsupwiththat.com)
Polar Star
“I regard them as nasty anti-human fanatics.”
So do I but I don’t wish them dead.
According to German agency world population has reached 7,200,000,000, of which 60 foolish souls and 15 or so Russian (possibly privately operated) ship’s crew (one has to ask if they were paid extra bonus to venture into dangerous waters) found themselves in the centre of our attention.
They should be treated as foolish children who climbed a tree and can’t get down. Everything possible should be done to get them out, but as long as no one is hurt, a bit of healthy ridicule will do them a lot of good.
Happy New Year to all including the above, but a special good wishes for those who are now risking their lives to get these fools out of their predicament.
Coast Guard Icebreaker Polar Star Back in Service
ARLINGTON, Va. – The U.S. Coast Guard’s polar icebreaking fleet was bolstered Dec. 3 when Polar Star embarked on its first mission since 2006.
The 399-foot cutter departed its homeport in Seattle for Antarctica where it will support Operation Deep Freeze. The service said its purpose will be to resupply the National Science Foundation Scientific Research Station at McMurdo.
http://www.seapowermagazine.org/stories/20131204-polarstar.html
Do self-righteous planetary saviors ever say “thank you”? We’ll see. A meaningful thank-you would include an abject apology for promoting voodoo that has enabled the misallocation of scarce resources, with resulting economic hardship, on a global scale.
Congrats to Anthony, John Coleman, Joe D’Aleo, Ryan Maue and Dave Scott. Job well done, gentlemen.
It’d be interesting to know the balance of the relationship between the Russian crew and the Western passengers aboard this vessel.
It has been revealed on the expedition’s SpiritofMawson blog that the Russian crew speaks virtually no English – beyond the three words “good” and “no problem”. From the outset, the Captain would likely have been told that his voyage was to carry boatload of ‘celebrity’ passengers and – given the publicity-needy self regard of those involved – that the eyes of the world’s media would be following their ‘historical’ adventure.
Given this collection of circumstances, we might wonder if there has been a serious blurring of boundaries regarding where real authority lay on the ship. A group of outspoken, pampered and wealthy westerners – known for an inability to place any value on views other than its own, used to being insulated from reality and believing their ‘authority’ on climate science extended to an authority over any related matters – might simply have disregarded any attempt by the Captain to warn of real dangers ahead and relied on the confusion caused be the inability to communicate to play-deaf to his concerns and insist on the set course.
The immaturity of the messages being set out by these people suggests to me something of this nature has placed this vessel in peril.
When this extreme manifestation of the AlGore Effect has passed, will these liberal (er, “progressive”) nitwits have any appreciation for the number of people who risked their lives and the amount of capital assets that were put at risk in order to rescue them?
Got it. So once again, the heat is somewhere else and the situation is worse than we thought.
Question:
If this was a boat of skeptics stuck in the ice trying prove to the world how much ice was in this area would they even get rescued? And members of the boat made a phone call to Mann or Gore, would those people respond in kind with intelligent offers of help and good data?
Just a asking….. It would seem there is a VERY warm and welcome difference between “our side” vs “their” side.
I agree that their policies would kill millions upon millions of people worldwide and impoverish millions more.
However, one thing to remember is that if anyone on this propaganda boat is seriously hurt or dies then they have a climate martyr to talk about for years. Imagine what the progressive propaganda rag “The Guardian” would do with that story — it will be better to see them saved by powerful ice breakers and information from skeptical meteorologists. But our wishes will do little; their fate is in the hands of Karma. (and Mother Nature)
I do like the comment by Scuzza Man that said it would be nice to see all of them saved by helicopter. Then we all watch as the Russian boat gets crushed by “non-existant” ice. That would be nice to watch from where I sit.
“The Captain got the ship to where she is at the moment, the “scientists” and passengers simply told the Captain what they would like to do and he tried to accommodate them. The passengers on a ship have no operational authority of any kind.”
————-
I had read that the Captain had warned the fools that bad weather was coming and they needed to get back on the ship, it took them so long to get their sh*t sorted out that by that time it was too late.
My weirdness meter just melted. Another task for the new year….
Let’s hope the wave of post-incident lawsuits miss you, but you’re now connected to it! Fortunately, they’ll be looking for deep pockets.
UPDATE: [my bold]
Your attitude and behavior reminds me of this passage.
Do not repay anyone evil for evil. Be careful to do what is right in the eyes of everybody. If it is possible as far as it depends on you, live at peace with everyone. Do not take revenge, my friends, but leave room for God’s wrath, for it is written: “It is mine to avenge: I will repay,” says the Lord.
On the contrary:
“If your enemy is hungry, feed him:
if he is thirsty, give him something to drink.
In doing so you will heap burning coals on his head.”
Do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.
Romans 12:17-21
I pray that they all passengers, crew and rescuers are all safe home.
James Bull
Foxgoose (@Foxgoose) says:
January 1, 2014 at 4:12 am
Oz icebreaker Aurora is now showing an iced-up vessel on its bow webcam.
Shokalskiy or Chinese icebreaker?
Can anyone identify??
http://www.antarctica.gov.au/webcams/aurora
Looks like Xue Long .. That ship is skitting around the edge of the ice and slowly (3-4 knots) being pushed back. Once Australis Borealis gets next to Xue Long then they will be ready for the airlift … once the weather has turned… not over yet and the most dangerous part is to come helicopters + wind do not mix (except in the ‘Day after tomorrow’ where they can fly in AGW hurricanes. But that is the land the fools live in).
If this were a Hollywood script it would be rejected as being too ridiculous. Irony upon irony. Well done Anthony, good show and keep it up.
Mods.
Yet again a comment from me is lost in moderation. I now suspect I am on some spam list for some unknown reason. Please advise what I should do.
One thing I have not seen mentioned, is that, if this incident had taken place on some sovereign territory, then some form of Transport Safety Board would, already, have taken over an enquiry to find out what happened. Such enquiries are already funded and authorized under law. The politicians know that it is essential to find out what went wrong, in order to prevent something similar happening in the future.
Here, they are in international waters, and who knows under what jurisdiction. No national TSB is going to undertake the necessary enquiry; it would cost too much money. So there are going to be an awful lot of questions that are NEVER going to be answered.
I just know that if I were Chris Turney, I would already have hired the most competent lawyer I could afford.
Peter S:
The crew would take orders only from the Captain or his Officers. Indeed if the language problem is as described the crew would not know how to carry out a request from a passenger; and a passenger would not, or at least should not, try to tamper with or operate any navigational equipment without permission from an Officer.
If the “scientists” were on the ice or in boats “experimenting” and refused to return when ordered to do so, then that puts a new complexion on the whole thing.
Well done. I hope they all come safely home; and I hope they have the grace to thank everyone who helped them, not excluding you and your colleagues.
Jim Cripwell,
If the vessel is registered in Russia, then Russian law prevails. If there is the need for an inquiry then the Russian equivalent of the British Marine and Coastguard Agency will conduct it.
Due to the lack of crow in the Antarctic, someone on board of the Akademik Shokalskiy must be eating piles of penguin, actually.
liberator says:
January 1, 2014 at 3:32 am
Antarctic sea ice isn´t growing because continental land ice is melting for the simple reason that the EAI & WAI Sheets are not melting.
Once, let us hope, all passengers & crew are rescued safely, this dangerous situation could provide material for a Josh cartoon, with the heads of Mann, Gavin, et al sticking out of the ice-trapped ship of fools like giraffes in Noah´s Ark cartoons.
The story is cinematic & would IMO make for a good cable TV movie. Not sure who should portray An-th-on-y.
Oldseadog, you write “If the vessel is registered in Russia, then Russian law prevails.”
Thanks. So far as I am aware, not such enquiry has started. Until one does, I remain skeptical.