UAH v5.6 Global Temperature Update for Nov. 2013: +0.19 deg. C
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
The Version 5.6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for November, 2013 is +0.19 deg. C, down from +0.29 deg. C in October (click for full size version):
The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 11 months are:
YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2013 01 +0.496 +0.512 +0.481 +0.387
2013 02 +0.203 +0.372 +0.033 +0.195
2013 03 +0.200 +0.333 +0.067 +0.243
2013 04 +0.114 +0.128 +0.101 +0.165
2013 05 +0.082 +0.180 -0.015 +0.112
2013 06 +0.295 +0.335 +0.255 +0.220
2013 07 +0.173 +0.134 +0.211 +0.074
2013 08 +0.158 +0.111 +0.206 +0.009
2013 09 +0.365 +0.339 +0.390 +0.189
2013 10 +0.290 +0.331 +0.250 +0.031
2013 11 +0.193 +0.159 +0.227 +0.018
Popular monthly data files (these might take a few extra days to update):
uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt (Lower Troposphere)
uahncdc_mt_5.6.txt (Mid-Troposphere)
uahncdc_ls_5.6.txt (Lower Stratosphere)
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RJ says:
December 3, 2013 at 4:58 pm
Isvalgaard – Perhaps, but what we don’t know is which way it will go after the pause.
Last time it went up 🙂
SAMURAI says:
December 3, 2013 at 7:25 pm
0.19C for November 2013… Ka-ching!
Great! Any value below 0.2C works to bring the anomaly trend down, which has basically flatlined since 1997.
What you are saying applies to version 5.5, but not version 5.6 which is what we have here. For a comparison, the last 3 months for version 5.6 have been 0.365, 0.290, and 0.193. I do not know the November value for version 5.5 since it is not up yet, but the two previous months were 0.294 and 0.226. If the November number also goes down by 0.097, then it will be 0.129. I expect it to be close to this and to thereby lengthen the pause from last month. See:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:2005/plot/uah/from:2005/trend
Expect some major drops in Global temps in the coming months and years, My bet for Dec is 0C anomaly.
lsvalgaard says”it seems to me that ‘the pause’ we have now is no different [except for level] from the pause we had 1979-1996“.
Yes, that’s true. But if you take a sine-wave and tilt it so that it slopes up from L-R, it can look like flat periods interspersed with sharp upward moves.
NB. I’m not saying there is a sine-wave in reality, I’m just pointing out that there are different ways of interpreting a graph, particularly one over a shortish period.
Looking at the whole Hadcrut3 unadj –
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl
– 1979-1996 looks like a bit of a shortish wave on a longer wave (not sine necessarily), where the longer wave went up from ~1970 to ~2005. Very similar to ~1910 to ~1945, same duration, same overall increase.
De-trend the graph, and we have got ourselves a nice looking wave:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl/detrend:0.75
Note : For some reason, the monthly variations were higher than now in the pre-1880 data, so the graph there is visually ‘heavier’ there, but there’s still a wave from ~1860. Does the pre-1860 data make “from ~1860” a cherrypick? Yes, it does. But so do lots of views of shorter periods.
Oh, and BTW, just so you don’t think I’m trying to disagree with anything, I’d like to reiterate my first sentence above, about the pause : “Yes, that’s true”.
SAMURAI;
And remember, the 2C mark is just an arbitrary figure invented by a UN ‘crat who needed a number to hang his PR on. There’s no particular significance to it.
Reblogged this on leclinton and commented:
ANd the wheels go round and round round and round then fall off ;>0
Brian H,
Me thinks the 2C you wrote and the 0.2C Samurai wrote are not relating to the same subject.
~ ~ ~
To pause, or not to pause
but that’s not the question
and while the answer is 42
the question has long been forgotten
so the new question is
Where is my winter coat?
IT ISN’T A ‘PAUSE’! Please stop using the word. A ‘pause’ implies that you KNOW the future state. As we don’t actually know that the temp will continue to increase then you cannot apply the word ‘pause’. As AGW-sceptics, we should not be using that word! You can say the rise has halted or stopped. What graphically shows that the word ‘pause’ is incorrect is if the temps start to fall – then it wouldn’t have been a ‘pause’, would it? It would only be shown to be the appropriate word IF the temps continue to increase. As we don’t know that (the future state is unknown) then ‘pause’ is quite simply incorrect.
Yes, I know, it really bothers me!
lsvalgaard says:
December 3, 2013 at 4:58 pm
Last time it went up 🙂
Do you drive your car by only looking in the rear view mirror 😉
Ghost:
I agree. We have climbed onto a plateau, but we won’t know, until we have crossed the plateau, whether the mountain continues upwards, or whether the plateau is the summit and it is all downhill on the other side. My feeling is the latter and we need to stock up on blankets.
Leif says “Last time it went up”
…….Persistence is usually a poor forecasting tool!
Leif says “Last time it went up”
…….and what goes up must come down, they say!
So it’s a Anthropogenic Catastrophic Climate Pause?
“Ian L. McQueen says:
December 3, 2013 at 6:39 pm
Neville asked: Bill Illis, what does 42 mean?
Neville, it comes from “A Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Universe”. It’s the answer that a computer came to (after many years???) as the answer to the Meaning of Life (IIRC).
IanM”
They then of course had to make another bigger computer that needed another 30 millions years to find the question to the answer 42. That computer is Earth and some day someone will find the question to this answer. I think I have found the answer to the first question. But if I tell it they want be needing Earth any longer?
As my alarmist friends would say:
“There is obviously something wrong with the satellites, as the models show something totally different.”
Hmm, not very funny – but there is nothing humorous about climate science as it is practiced today. On the other hand, climate science can be described as being ‘funny’ in that it is odd, strange and incompatible with the facts.
Richard Lawson says:
December 3, 2013 at 11:40 pm
lsvalgaard says:
December 3, 2013 at 4:58 pm
Last time it went up 🙂
Do you drive your car by only looking in the rear view mirror 😉
Yes, if you’re a climate modeler. The technical name is “hindcasting”. They don’t “do” future.
“Bob Tisdale says:
December 3, 2013 at 5:16 pm
The preliminary November sea surface temperature update is here:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2013/12/02/preliminary-november-2013-sea-surface-temperature-sst-update/”
Earth is very dominated by the temperatures in the oceans. The temperatures there will have to go down before the temperatures in the air?
The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley says:
“IT ISN’T A ‘PAUSE’! Please stop using the word. A ‘pause’ implies that you KNOW the future state. As we don’t actually know that the temp will continue to increase then you cannot apply the word ‘pause’. As AGW-sceptics, we should not be using that word!”
=======================
Agree completely. Terms implying that the current situation is temporary have always bothered me. The fact is, we just don’t know.
All we know is that global warming has stopped. It may resume. Or not. But for the past ≈17 years, global warming has STOPPED.
I know that fact tortures the alarmist crowd. That is their problem, and it is self-made. They should have been skeptical, instead of being so certain that global warming was a given. But as we see, Panet Earth doesn’t care what the non-consensus believes.
Jim, I have a DVD player. The remote control has a “pause” button. When I press it, the DVD stops playing.
There is nothing that forces me to press “play” ever again. I can turn off the machine, remove the disk, whatever, The “pause” buttion implies nothing whatsoever about what happens next.
Neville. says:
December 3, 2013 at 5:56 pm
Bill Illis, what does 42 mean? Remember you have to make allowances for we dummies.
Secret code for hitchhikers.
(yeah – I know it was answered above. I like my answer better.)
The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley says:
December 3, 2013 at 11:00 pm
How about paws. As in “getchur paws out of my wallet.”
Re: “hindcasting”. My wife says it is one of the reasons she chose me. Before I heard that from her I never knew women were into that sort of thing.
The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley says:
December 3, 2013 at 11:00 pm
What that guy said – before I could.
With knobs on. In capitals. Followed my several/many exclamation marks.
IT IS NOT A PAUSE. It is a dead global warming.
steveta_uk says:
Congratulations. You have found an anomaly in the function of the word “pause”. Now please excuse the rest of the world while we follow the actual meaning of the word, which is a temporary halt.
It’s worse than we thought! It’s a catapausetrophy!