Image Credit: Cryosphere Today – University of Illinois – Polar Research Group
By WUWT Regular Just The Facts
Per the graph above, Antarctic Sea Ice Extent has remained above the 1981 – 2010 “normal” range for much of the last three months and the current positive Antarctic Sea Ice Extent anomaly appears quite large for a planet supposedly on the verge of Dangerous Warming.
Furthermore, in 2013 we had the third most expansive Southern Sea Ice Area measured to date;
and Southern Sea Ice Area has remained above average for most of the last two years;
At the other pole Arctic Sea Ice Extent has remained within the 1981 – 2010 “normal” range for the entirety of 2013;
and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area had it’s smallest decline since 2006;
thus Global Sea Ice Area has remained stubbornly average for the entirety of 2013:
According Michael Oppenheimer, Professor Geo-sciences and International Affairs at Princeton University and IPCC Contributor, the reason for The Pause/Hiatus in Earth’s atmospheric temperature, and apparently associated average Global Sea Ice is that;
“heat tends to hide in the oceans sometimes, but when heat hides in the ocean it later comes out and reappears in the atmosphere and then the warming resumes faster than before. We don’t know this for certain, we’ll find out over the next few years, but it is wrong to say that the IPCC didn’t look at it carefully, it certainly did.” PBS
Reassuring to know that IPCC has figured out Earth’s climate system for us, it’s all just like a big game of hide and go seek, clearly…
To see more information on Sea Ice please visit the WUWT Sea Ice Page and WUWT Northern Regional Sea Ice Page.
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After all the rhetoric over the last few years about how the observed temperatures were unimportant, and how the declining sea ice PROVED that dangerous warming was still going on, we can expect the alarmists to try to find some new supposed ‘trend’ to serve as their ‘proof’.
And we all know that the msm is just itching to publish this good news story. Any minute now, just you wait and see.
Any possibility the Arctic maximum sea ice extent could recover to the 1981-2010 baseline this year? What are the key conditions for attaining a high maximum?
Where does a guy find data like this for the Sothern H
This is JAXA daily data on sea ice cover since 2002
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv
….how on EARTH can these people claim that “the science is settled”??
“We don’t know this for certain,” so we’ll do everything we can to destroy the hydrocarbon economy until we find out for sure.
Ten days record ice set down under.
The IPCC torn asunder.
For the Ice does not lie.
Kiss the warming good-bye.
It’s worse than a crime, it’s a blunder.
http://lenbilen.com/2013/10/18/a-new-little-ice-age-is-looming-ten-days-in-new-all-time-record-for-ice-in-the-antartics-a-limerick/
Reblogged this on Public Secrets and commented:
How dare the ice defy Al Gore? Oh, wait. According to a Warmist cited in the article, the heat is just “hiding in the oceans” and could be released at any time. I guess it’s just waiting for the right time to ambush us…
In case it has escaped some people’s notice, spring has been real late down here at the southern tip of Africa. There is still snow on our few 2000m peaks.
“heat tends to hide in the oceans sometimes, but when heat hides in the ocean it later comes out and reappears in the atmosphere and then the warming resumes faster than before. We don’t know this for certain, we’ll find out over the next few years”
And if they are wrong? Billions down the drain and years wasted and wealth squandered and people suffering from high energy costs, of course they continue to get lavish funding and even a few more years of it would justify some of the most unscientific gibberish I have ever heard from a supposed scientist. “heat hides in the ocean sometimes” huuh?
Amazing how sea ice is expanding around Antarctica, while Antarctica itself (according to Nature, etc., etc.) is warming. It must be harder to torture the satellite cameras into false confessions.
Wouldn’t be surprised if the National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) got a secret memo on one of those unauthorized email accounts from the Gov Elites to correct these NH & SH ice stats/data. (If they already haven’t gotten some – not accusing, just sayin)
“heat tends to hide in the oceans sometimes, but when heat hides in the ocean it later comes out and reappears in the atmosphere and then the warming resumes faster than before.
We should note that Oppenheimer fails to provide an explanation of the physical processes by which this could occur. To my knowledge, neither he, nor anyone else in the alarmascience community has done so, despite the frequency with which they claim that this is a possibility.
No such mechanism exists. For “heat” to “come out of” the oceans and into the atmosphere requires that the oceans be warmer than the atmosphere. Since the heat capacity of the oceans is about 1200 times that of the atmosphere, doing so would require 1200 times as much energy to raise ocean temps as would be required to raise atmospheric temps by the same amount.
In other words, worst case, the heat really is hiding in the oceans. Instead of heating the atmosphere by 2 degrees in the next century, it would take 1,200 centuries. As for the notion that this heat would, at some point, come out “all at once”, that would require so many changes to the laws of physics that one should be equally worried about a gravity well reversal that spews everyone on earth out to space.
PBS = Gov’t TV
PBS guests (all too often) = propagandists
My tax dollars at work
“heat tends to hide in the oceans sometimes, but when heat hides in the ocean it later comes out and reappears in the atmosphere and then the warming resumes faster than before” This suggests heat is playing peek-a-boo, sometimes hiding in the oceans, then suddenly reappearing. What nonsense.
dipchip says:
October 20, 2013 at 11:19 am
Where does a guy find data for the …
——————————–
Daily Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent data from the NSIDC back to the end of 1978 here (3 files – 2013 NRT, daily numbers from 1978 to 2012, and average climatology 1981-2010) (CSV files loadable into Excel) (the earlier part of the record is every second day which can pose some issues if you don’t know how to work around it.)
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/
NH sea ice area from the Cryosphere today.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008
——————————–
Southern Hemisphere NSIDC sea ice extent here (same files).
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/south/daily/data/
SH daily sea ice area from the Cryosphere Today.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.south.anom.1979-2008
———————–
I remember the days when one had to accidently stumble upon the data in an obscure FTP directory named NDP0051. Glad to see it readily available now.
“heat tends to hide in the oceans sometimes, but when heat hides in the ocean it later comes out and reappears in the atmosphere and then the warming resumes faster than before. We don’t know this for certain…”
Yow, an unseen entity that hides and comes out later to terrorize people. Sounds like that well known mythical creature, the Bogeyman. Warmists are really getting desperate to invoke hidden entities which they don’t know for certain.
From Wikipedia:
“A bogeyman (also spelled bogieman, or boogeyman) is a mythical creature in many cultures used by adults to frighten children into compliant behaviour. The monster has no specific appearance, and conceptions about it can vary drastically from household to household within the same community; in many cases, he has no set appearance in the mind of an adult or child, but is simply a non-specific embodiment of terror. Parents may tell their children that if they misbehave, the bogeyman will get them. Bogeymen may target a specific mischief—for instance, a bogeyman that punishes children who suck their thumbs—or general misbehavior, depending on what purpose needs serving. In some cases, the bogeyman is a nickname for the Devil.”
Presumably Oppenheimer can identify previous instances of this phenomenon in the historical record, and can explain the conditions under which it occurs and mechanisms by which it occurs.
I’ve decide to sell “Global Warming Insurance”.
For $100 per month, I will insure/ensure you live as comfortably as today whenever temperature rises above 3.0C or by the year 2150 (if it is warmer than today), whichever comes first.
For $50 per month, I will ensure you are not financially impacted when the Arctic sea ice melts completely. $25 per month insures against the Antarctic glaciers melting out (riser at $50 per month to cover the Penguins as well).
Ah, but there’s an obvious explanation: the ice is expanding because it is melting. This is how it works: Antarctica is melting and the enormous quantities of run-off fresh water lay on top of the salty ocean and therefore refreeze easily. Add to that the fresh water added by rainfall and it all becomes crystal clear. Nobody has ever measured this run-off or the thickness of that surface layer but this must be the true explanation. Everybody knows that. Oh, and in Arctic, being on the opposite side of the planet, everything works the other way around. So in the Arctic the ice is melting but it doesn’t refreeze. Obviously. The whirlpools turn the other way there, don’t they.
Martin Gardner, a popular science and math writer in the previous century once wrote that when confronted by such idiocies the only valid and sound reaction is roaring laughter.
Global warming causes above average ice. Scientist proclaims: “If we don’t regulate carbon sources, man will heat the Earth until it freezes.” Story at 11.
There is nothing shocking about Professor Oppenheimer’s statement (above). Instead, his attempt to mask politics as science is the sort of mundane mendacity which is found throughout climate science.
Maybe 1979-80 was the outlier….more than normal
..you think?
/snark
“heat tends to hide in the oceans sometimes, but when heat hides in the ocean it later comes out and reappears in the atmosphere and then the warming resumes faster than before. We don’t know this for certain, we’ll find out over the next few years”
Translated into lay terms for the target audience:
Crocodiles tend to hide under the bed sometimes, but when crocodiles hide under the bed they later come out and then they nibble your ankles. We don’t know this for certain, we’ll find out when you kiddies grow up.
So… we’re still doomed? Dang! I was just beginning to relax.
Heat hides in the ocean? Every ocean I’ve ever put my feet into was colder than the air around me. Is this similar to those CO2 pockets that were supposedly in higher levels of the atmosphere?