Guest essay by Marlo Lewis
Okay, they don’t do so in as many words. But in addition to being more confident than ever (despite a 16-year pause in warming and the growing mismatch between model projections and observations) that man-made climate change is real, they are also more confident nothing really bad is going to happen during the 21st Century.
The scariest parts of the “planetary emergency” narrative popularized by Al Gore and other pundits are Atlantic Ocean circulation shutdown (implausibly plunging Europe into a mini-ice age), ice sheet disintegration raising sea levels 20 feet, and runaway warming from melting frozen methane deposits.
As BishopHill and Judith Curry report on their separate blogs, IPCC now believes that in the 21st Century, Atlantic Ocean circulation collapse is “very unlikely,” ice sheet collapse is “exceptionally unlikely,” and catastrophic release of methane hydrates from melting permafrost is “very unlikely.” You can read it for yourself in Chapter 12 Table 12.4 of the IPCC’s forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report.
But these doomsday scenarios have always been way more fiction than science. For some time now, extreme weather has been the only card left in the climate alarm deck. Climate activists repeatedly assert that severe droughts, floods, and storms (Hurricane Sandy is their current poster child) are now the “new normal,” and they blame fossil fuels.
On their respective blogs Anthony Watts and Roger Pielke, Jr. provide excerpts about extreme weather from Chapter 2 of the IPCC report. Among the findings:
- “Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century … No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin.”
- “In summary, there continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale.”
- “In summary, there is low confidence in observed trends in small-scale severe weather phenomena such as hail and thunderstorms because of historical data inhomogeneities and inadequacies in monitoring systems.”
- “Based on updated studies, AR4 [the IPCC 2007 report] conclusions regarding global increasing trends in drought since the 1970s were probably overstated.”
- “In summary, confidence in large scale changes in the intensity of extreme extra-tropical cyclones since 1900 is low.”
Pielke Jr. concludes:
“There is really not much more to be said here — the data says what it says, and what it says is so unavoidably obvious that the IPCC has recognized it in its consensus. Of course, I have no doubts that claims will still be made associating floods, drought, hurricanes and tornadoes with human-caused climate change — Zombie science — but I am declaring victory in this debate. Climate campaigners would do their movement a favor by getting themselves on the right side of the evidence.”
For further discussion, see my post “Global Warming: Planet’s Most Hyped Problem” on this week’s National Journal Energy Insiders blog.
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See also: Global warming is ‘no longer a planetary emergency’
Michael Spencer writes,
“I wish someone would explain to me why the recent ‘pause’ is actually significant, when previous periods of pause have been observed, but when the record is observed at longer time scales the pauses are seen to be…well, part of a grander picture that shows temperatures increasing in fits and starts but, yes, increasing?”
It is significant because the IPCC had predicted a .20C warming in EACH of the first two decades of this century and we have instead a slight cooling trend.
Michael is touting for business. Nothing more, nothing less. And what blog gets the most traffic?
Michael Spencer;
There are many reasons, but the biggest one is that the sensitivity of global temperature to CO2 increases was claimed to be so great that it would overcome natural variation no matter what. Those of [us] who understood the physics were fairly certain that this was an exaggeration at worst, a gross misunderstanding of feed backs at best. The halt in warming is a vindication of that viewpoint. Over the course of the debate, the top climate scientists in the world at first said that sensitivity was so high that it could not be overcome by natural variation for time periods longer than 10 years. As we approached the 10 year mark, they decided that perhaps sensitivity was lower than thought and/or natural variation was higher, but that 15 years was the maximum time that natural variation could overwhelm CO2’s effects. As we approached the 15 year mark, those same scientists once again rejigged their estimation of sensitivity versus natural variation to claim a maximum of 17 years. Now that we are approaching that mark, those self same scientists are suggesting that 30 years may be an appropriate timeline.
So in the final analysis, it is significant not just because is shows that the scientists were wrong and are now simply making excuses for their mistakes rather than own up to them, but also because their own data is showing that regardless of what CO2’s effects are, they are small compared to natural variability. If we are going to invest gigantic chunks of our economy into surviving climate change, it is natural variability that we need to fear, not CO2. That makes policies such as turning food into fuel while people in the world are starving, criminal. That makes the erection of wind mills and solar farms to produce electricity at quadruple the rates of conventional production an insane drag on the economy that puts people on welfare instead of generating jobs. That makes the World Bank’s policy of not funding affordable power plant technologies in third world countries a crime against the poor of the world.
But most of all, it means that we’re putting band aids on paper cuts while ignoring the potential for real harm due to natural variability and preparing for that by adaptation (which is our only option since we can’t mitigate natural variation, and which btw protects us from both warming and cooling and costs a fraction of what mitigation costs).
@Michael Spencer
Yes, temperatures are increasing overall since the Maunder Minimum, which reached is cold peak roughly 300 years ago. But temperatures had also steadily decreased from around AD 1350 in order to arrive at the Maunder Minimum. There are larger warming and cooling cycles that occur, and have occurred for the last 11,500 years of this present interglacial period. To suggest that man, and only man with his CO2 is solely responsible for the recent warming trend is to ignore the basics of Climate Science. Behold this graph below:
http://cdn.zmescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/holocene.jpg
Janice Moore says:
October 4, 2013 at 6:15 pm
Where are they now?
Jim Hansen — Involuntarily Made Member of “Royal Society”
very funny,
IPCC Calls Off Planetary Emergency?
Pirates of the Caribbean.
attack in the Arctic.
Of course all too exaggerated …. so as usual
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/oct/03/greenpeace-activists-arctic-sunrise
i am sure I commented here as well. But now, where is it (my comment?)
DirkH says:
October 5, 2013 at 4:21 am
“”Janice Moore says:
October 4, 2013 at 10:26 pm
“I tell you, Ro Ha, please forgive my venting here, but, I’m really tired of Europeans complaining about the U.S. after all we have done for them. ”
Wall street interests and Woodrow Wilson created the Soviet Union; Henry Ford, GE and the likes financed Hitler’s winning campaign.
WW II’s two most diabolical regimes, one of them an ally of the USA, were US creations.””
DirkH makes Janice Moore’s case.
Oh what evil hath America wrought unto the poor innocent waifs of Europe, victims all.
My Uncle lies dead in France, Sir. He was killed by Germans (maybe the Vichy) in WWII.
He was there to finish it, not to start it. You Euros did that.
His name is Sgt. Roy Phillips. He was 20.
You should honor all those like him.
They liberated you, whether you like it or not.
– – – – – – – –
Eliza,
It is a reasonable position to say there will be yet anther glacial period like the past 4 or 5 and that this interglacial period is already at the length of some past ones. Yet the transition period from an interglacial phase like we are in to the glacial phase is slow over millennial (1000s of yrs) scales. And in past such transitions there have been large variations (swings) of cooling and warming periods on the century scale.
So, I suggest we actually do not know if we are in a transition or just cruising along within the current interglacial.
I would be nice to know, but . . .
John
Here’s a question. What would happen if atmospheric CO2 fell to 0%?
No photosynthesis. No plants would survive, No animal food. The end.
Here’s a question. What would happen if atmospheric CO2 fell to 0%?
No photosynthesis. No plants would survive, No animal food. The end.
Something the next Ice Age (big one) will effectively bring about.
RobRoy says:
October 5, 2013 at 8:16 am
The rulers, of all countries, create the mess; the common people, of all countries, have to sort it out. Nothing new there.
davidmhoffer says: October 5, 2013 at 7:45 am
Well said Sir!
Of all the good answers to Michael Spencer, yours was the best, imo.
DirkH says:
October 5, 2013 at 4:21 am
WW II’s two most diabolical regimes, one of them an ally of the USA, were US creations.
Thanks a lot from Germany.
______________________
I’ve seen some twisted logic before, but hey pal, you should be a pretzel maker.
DirkH says: October 5, 2013 at 4:21 am
How about some credible sources for your allegations Dirk? Like global warming mania, much of the radical left’s propaganda is fabricated in coffee shops and bars and has little or no basis in fact. However, it is effectively used by scoundrels and fervently believed by imbeciles.
I have a great-uncle buried in France in WW1 – no doubt that war was caused by Teddy Roosevelt – Bully bully!!! Shoot that duke!
My uncle survived Dieppe in 1942 – the only officer in his regiment to get back to England – he swam the first few miles, pushing a rowboat he filled with the only ten survivors from his group. We don’t blame the Germans for Dieppe; rightly or wrongly, we blame Lord Louis Mountbatten. It appears that global warming fanatic Prince Charles inherited his intellect.
I suggest that the USA’s Marshall Plan saved many millions of lives and entire societies across Europe, including West Germany. It was and remain the most enlightened and benevolent act in human history.
I travelled into Soviet East Germany through Checkpoint Charlie in July 1989, just before the Berlin Wall fell. It was an economic and environmental disaster! Nothing worked, and that included most of the people. There were no human rights, and human dignity had been crushed. And East Germany was by far the best place in the Former Soviet Union!
I have been back to Germany many times since then, both East and West. I like Germany and Germans, notwithstanding our past differences. But if you get into another war I hope you are on your own. We have lost too many fine young men saving Europe from tyranny, but frankly, it was not worth it.
Europe is falling into the tyranny of a bureaucratic dictatorship through a failure of collective intellect, and it is probable that nothing will save you from yourselves.
I am Canadian, and have lived in the USA and have done business on six continents. There are many worse countries in the world than the USA – more than 200 of them. In fact, Canada is blessed to have the USA as our closest neighbour.
When I encounter Pavlovian anti-Americanism here in Canada, typically among our lobotomized lefties, I ask them one question: Which large country would you rather have as your next-door neighbour? Russia? China? Who? ……… ……… Their stunned silence tells the answer.
Owl Gore turned off global warming to show you he could do it. If you don’t pay him carbon tax he’s gonna turn it back on.
““Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century ”
There are significant trends but they are down. Interesting that when things that were supposed to go up actually go down, they don’t mention it – they just say “no significant trends” “lack of robust trends” “lack of evidence” and we starved skeptics rejoice! Whoa!! Maybe I’ve become to skeptical and cynical.
To be honest what the report says, have a look yourself in the summary for policy makers page 23 instead of reading the interpretation from someone else that you don’t know how well it represents the report.
Copying page 23 on some of the extremes:
Warm spells, frequency and/or intensity increases
– 1950 to today: medium confidence globally, likely for large parts of Europe, Asia, Australia
– by 2100 projection: Very Likely
Heavy precipitation events, increase in amount and/or frequency and/or intensity
– 1950 to today: Likely more land areas with increases than decreases
– by 2100 projection: Very likely over most of the mid-latitude land masses and over wet tropical regions
Increases in intense tropical cyclone activity
– 1950 to today: Low confidence in long term (centennial) changes Virtually certain in North Atlantic since 1970
– by 2100 projection: More likely than not in the Western North Pacific and North Atlantic
I urge all of you who are interested to actually read the report and see what it says. Then it is of course up to each one how to interpret it, but don’t just buy someone else’s interpretation as it is likely biased in one way or the other
Hey, Roy, rightly proud nephew of Uncle Roy, Allan, and Alan, thanks, so much, for your support. I kind of needed it. Wow. I thought Ro Ha might defend his position (in his usual affable manner), but those other guys. (head shake) Talk about a guilt complex — that one is, indeed, a pretzel. Even so, because, until today, I’ve nearly always admired Dirk’s cogent comments, I felt kind of kicked in the gut on that one.
Okay. I’ll be more careful not to talk about such a sensitive (had no idea HOW) topic again.
*****************
Mr. Spencer,
1. In nutshell: HUMAN CO2 UP — GLOBAL WARMING STOPPED,.
2. There are, in addition to David Hoffer’s and others’ fine responses to your question, numerous posts on W-U-W-T (finally remembered to do that so as not to go into m-oder-ation) by which you can educate yourself regarding the complete lack of any evidence that human CO2 can do anything to change the climate of the earth.
*********************
Fernando (in Brazil),
THANK YOU! Thanks for telling me. It’s hard, sometimes, being a zany type amongst many serious types, here. Glad you thought at least one out of three was funny.
Re: your link to that disgusting Guardian (oxymoron, I know #(:)) article, so Greenpeace is “Mother Theresa.” Who knew?
Enjoy your spring, down there!
Janice
The Oceans are about to boil over and the IPCC says there is no emergency.
Isn’t anyone able to save us from ourselves!?
We need a guy in a cap to come to our rescue
Dear Ox AO,
Sure wish THIS guy in a cap (I know, I know :)) was still around:
But, you were thinking more along the lines of this hero, perhaps? #(:))
And
behind those glasses,
beneath the quiet reserved countenance,
all you Clark (and Clara) Kent Science Giants of WUWT
are heroes,
too.
.
.
(and some of us are in on the secret)
With admiration and gratitude,
Janice
That’s why pseudo-scientists like Mandia doff Superman costumes — a feeble attempt to identify himself with you REAL heroes.
Janice Moore:
Yeah kinda, I as thinking along the lines of James Hanson or Scott Mandia (OH, I see you found him in your next post)
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/caped_climate_crusader1.jpg
I thought I seen a James Hanson in a super hero suit here a while back but couldn’t find it.
Thank you 🙂
Amatør1 says:
October 5, 2013 at 8:24 am
That’s my take on it too. At 390ppm it’s pretty close to 0% as it is…
Who enabled Lenin to get to Russia?