NOAA sends hidden messages in forecast discussion

The desperation is the message… 

NWS_pay_US_AFD

Source: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?dir=next&pil=AFDAFC&e=201310032155

Nice to know that the NWS is an essential service during the shutdown. What we get from NWS (for free) is probably the best bargain in government services.

h/t to Jess Ferrell

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PaulH

Ha! Do they have a “donate” account with PayPal? 🙂

DirkH

Maybe the NWS services are critical for the assessment of Golf course conditions.

Luke Warmist

Coupled with the ACA information phone number, we’ll all be playing “Where’s Waldo” in any new government communication.

Corey S.

That is hilarious! What are the odds of that happening by pure chance?

DirkH

Corey S. says:
October 5, 2013 at 8:15 am
“That is hilarious! What are the odds of that happening by pure chance?”
Assuming equal distribution of 26 letters of the alphabet
(1/26.0)**11 = 2.7245398995795435e-16
This estimate needs improvement though; an equal distribution is not realistic.

Phillip Bratby

Perhaps Big Oil will pay them.

“Nice to know that the NWS is an essential service during the shutdown. What we get from NWS (for free) is probably the best bargain in government services.”
Totally agree. Even though I am quite libertarian-minded myself, the NWS is one government service (among others) that I would keep along with the National Hurricane Center.

dp

You learn much about the character of the leadership by how they prioritize affected services during a shutdown. Use what you learn when you next cast your vote.

OldWeirdHarold

DirkH says:
October 5, 2013 at 8:20 am

This estimate needs improvement though; a equal distribution is not realistic.
=====
The work’s already been done. See: Huffman encoding.

Please pay us – we don’t have too much time on our hands – oh no.

Michael

Is this the new version of ‘The Day after Tomorrow’ when the “scientist” run out of petrol to run the generator or is this the scene when New York is flooded?

Mike M

Decisions decisions… should the OMB pay NWS personnel to stay on board or pay for more rangers and barricades to keep WW2 veterans away from the WW2 Memorial that was built with private donations?

geran

17 degrees F drop on my patio since daybreak this morning, as the massive cold front moves in.

GlynnMhor

LOL…

DirkH

OldWeirdHarold says:
October 5, 2013 at 8:28 am
“The work’s already been done. See: Huffman encoding.”
Sure. But I won’t go so far as to compute it. Somebody else gotta make that happen. It’s a non-essential service.

Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7

DirkH says:
October 5, 2013 at 8:20 am

Corey S. says:
October 5, 2013 at 8:15 am
“That is hilarious! What are the odds of that happening by pure chance?”
Assuming equal distribution of 26 letters of the alphabet
(1/26.0)**11 = 2.7245398995795435e-16
This estimate needs improvement though; an equal distribution is not realistic.

Especially not at the beginnings of words which are also at the beginnings of lines.
I’ll bet the NSA could come up with a pretty good estimate, but they’re not talking …

Gunga Din

😎
But they put the period at the beginning of the “sentence”.

JimK

Propaganda by any other name.. Methinks they have too much time on their hands already.

Paul Vaughan

It seems the US government has finally found a way to shut down climate skeptic operations. Today I went to get updated sunspot numbers (needed for new calculations) and found this:
=
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Due to the Federal government shutdown, NOAA.gov and most associated web and ftp
sites are unavailable.
Only web and ftp sites necessary to protect lives and property will be maintained.
See Weather.gov for critical weather information or contact USA.gov for more
information about the shutdown.
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
=

Greg

“Perhaps Big Oil will pay them.”
You’re joking, they have no cash left after all they’ve been pumping into funding the climate denial industry in recent years.

This is man made. Government shutdown .. no pay..

littlepeaks

Ahhh — the power of the subconscious mind.

John S.

What we get from NWS (for free) is probably the best bargain in government services.

My tax attorney and Chinese bond holders may disagree about the ‘free’ part.

J Martin

The US debt is increasing at a rate of one trillion $ a year. I wonder how much the shut down is saving, probably not much, and I wonder just how extensive a shut down would be required to even level off the debts, never mind reduce them. Is it even possible.

J Martin

They should be happy. The shut down has reduced their “carbon” footprint.

RACookPE1978

Well, the most common letters used in English are in the phrase “AND THREATENS” so, it is appropriate a government employee in a government pushing the catastrophic death of CAGW energy controls issues such a statement.

nohbody

Looking at the previous report, Id say it had to be deliberate, as several synonyms were substituted in for words in the (presumably auto generated) previous report.

John G.

Interesting, exactly the same probability as shutdownnow.

As an Alaskan who travels all over the state for my job using air, truck, occasionally a 4 wheeler or snowmachine I am glad the site is still up. For many of us it is a safety issue, not a matter of what coat I will wear but will I get on the road or sit tight because it’s not worth the risk.

Mike McMillan

OldWeirdHarold says: October 5, 2013 at 8:28 am

The work’s already been done. See: Huffman encoding.

Huffman encoding uses letter frequency, but it’s primarily for compression, such as. Its use in jpeg images.
Wikipedia has one list of frequencies.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Letter_frequency

u.k.(us)

I love it.
When I dig down into my local NOAA forecast (storms are predicted), the uncertainties are broadcast widely.
Their Met’s produce some good stuff.

Janice Moore

Clearly such meaningful, ordered, complexity was NOT an accident. Hurrah! A sign of hope! There is SOMEONE at NOAA with that surest sign of intelligence:
a sense of humor.
Hm. Maybe that’s why she or he has been assigned to the Alaska desk…. (wouldn’t surprise me given the propaganda coming out of NOAA these days)
Hang in there, buddy!

Janice Moore

David,
Be careful up there! When in doubt, sit tight. Good to hear from you.
Janice

This shutdown stuff sure isn’t helping your popularity.
http://www.pollingreport.com/cong_rep.htm
Could have just shut your pie holes and let Obamacare implosion get you votes.
Nooooooo… we gotta shut ‘er all down!!!!
You better hope like ‘ell we don’t get a terror attack or plane crashes with FBI, CIA, CDC closed and only 2/3 of the controllers needed to keep air traffic safe.

Mike M
Mike M

Ed Mertin says:
That poll is obviously bogus. The approval they show back on Oct 3, 2010 lists as only being 24% so HOW was it possible that a month later the republicans retook the House with an unprecedented number of seat reversals? BZZZT! (plus a lot of the democrat wins were very very slim in 2010 compared to 2008)

Whatever happened to “The buck stops here“???
The president is the head of the nation. It is his job to look ahead and anticipate and deal with problems. Yet we now have two related problems that he has failed to anticipate, or at least to deal with, and he is blaming the Republicans. Both relate to overspending, with the first one (blocking supply unless certain new spending is deferred) being much less important than the second (the debt ceiling). What is happening to people from the first problem coming to a head is just a foretaste of the chaos that could come from the second. Now it is certainly the case that the president could have been caught off-guard by the first problem, and it can be argued that the Republicans triggered it. Sure it’s his job not to be caught off-guard, but these things can happen to the best of them. What is totally inexcusable is that he has wilfully and irresponsibly ignored the second problem – the debt ceiling. The responsible course for the president would be to anticipate well in advance when the debt ceiling would hit, and either reform to stay within it, or negotiate with Congress (the ones who set the debt ceiling) well in advance in order to get the ceiling raised.
Now it is – or may be – true that Congress has been playing games too, but it is at the President that the buck stops. It is horrendous for the president to push his luck to the limit, refuse to negotiate even at the 11th hour, and then blame Congress. That is the exact opposite of what a responsible president should do, namely anticipate the problem, negotiate early, and if necessary then use his oratorical and any other powers to get a whole heap of pressure put on Congress.
I used the word ‘horrendous’ on purpose, because for some people, like the NWS employees now and perhaps many others later, the result is horrendous : through no fauit of their own, they are being forced to work for no pay. How this can happen in a constitutional democracy is mindboggling.
Note that this has nothing whatsoever to do with the quality of weather forecasts, or the quality of climate models or past presidents for that matter. I feel very deeply for those people in this situation. They may be no better or worse than people whose employer goes bust, for example, but the result for them is in the short term more devastating. When a company goes bust, the employees are at least free to move on. These poor unfortunates are being forced to supply slave labour. In a supposedly free democracy. I hope for theirs and everyones’ sakes that both problems get resolved very quickly. At least with the first problem hitting first, there is a chance that it will get enough pressure on everyone to stop being bone-headed and get the second problem resolved. The next step surely is for the president (the buck-stopper) to stop posturing and start genuine negotiation.

Mike M

(Putting on tin foil hat…) Maybe all the other columns are anagrams of top secret information?

wrecktafire

Re: the odds of happening by chance. Doing this by letter frequency in average English is not the right approach.
The right approach would be to take all the previous communications of this type, and see whether the ordering of the sentences (by topic), the choice of word to lead off each sentence, word frequency distribution, and the sentence structure in this message have been seen before (there may be more factors, but that should get somebody started! :-).
In other words, the same way they tell Shakespeare from a forgery, or a plagiarized work: pattern recognition.

Janice Moore

Mike M.,
Another fine insight!
Never underestimate the powers of petty minds.
N’ot bright, but, they have “the dull cunning of the snake.”
Slow-buT-de-A-d – l- Y, Half Of the-M Eat worms, half insects.
I’m serious. Look at the data.
Questions are answered disingenuously while they blithely lie for a living.
6 to one, half a dozen to the other, they equivocate with a purpose.
3 can easily be turned into an 8 or a B; they like 3’s.

Kasuha

Mike Jonas says:
October 5, 2013 at 12:30 pm
Whatever happened to “The buck stops here“???
The president is the head of the nation. It is his job to look ahead and anticipate and deal with problems.
__________________________________________

Greg

what is even more increadible is if you take the second letter of each line and read it backwards, it spells UNELEXTEDIMPOSTER.
Amazing.

Greg

In an attempt to alleviate the national debt crisis Pres. Obama has announced there will be no “kill list” this week. He was also reported to have tried to auction his Nobel Medallion but was told Nobel Peace Prizes were not worth anything because they give them to anyone.

Hot under the collar

Did nobody see the other hidden message? If you turn it upside down and read it backwards it reads; “there is no anthropogenic climate change, it is due to natural variability”.

Hot under the collar

OK, I made it up, but I wonder how many looked for it? (I bet you played the Beatles records backwards to check for hidden messages as well) ; > )
If NOAA employees had left my suggested message, I may have paid them myself!

Janice Moore

Greg and Hot Under the Collar — LOL. #(:))
Backmasking Exposed (heh):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYdoU_w-bnA
I think the software, “Audacity” is really just a climate model. Operates pretty much the same way. Input: real data (I use “real” because “data” is being used incorrectly so often these days)
—-> Output: humorous.

Steve D

Byron York earlier tweeted (‏@ByronYork): Asked a Senate source. Answer: based on CBO/OMB data, about 83 percent of government spending goes on. http://ow.ly/pwHrP

Robert of Ottawa

I want to know who first found this and pointed it out? Perhaps a NOAA Black-Op?

Robert of Ottawa

This so-called Government Shutdown in the US is a most petulant, childish hissy-fit, not worthy of adults.

Robert of Ottawa

Ed Mertin, it was Bambam that instituted the fake “shutdown” for political theater.
OK No more politics from me on this thread.