The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has updated their monthly graph set and it is becoming even more clear that we are past solar max, and that solar max has been a dud. “The slump” continues not only in sunspot activity, but also other metrics. And, tellingly, Dr. David Hathaway has now aligned his once way too high solar prediction with that of WUWT’s resident solar expert, Dr. Leif Svalgaard. Of course, at this point, I’m not sure “prediction” is the right word for Hathaway’s update.
The SSN count remains low:
Note the divergence between the model prediction in red, and the actual values.
The 10.7cm radio flux continues slumpy:
The Ap geomagnetic index remains low, unchanged, and indicates a tepid solar magnetic dynamo. We’ve had well over 6 years now (and about to be seven) of a lower than expected Ap index.
From the WUWT Solar reference page, Dr Leif Svalgaard has this plot comparing the current cycle 24 with recent solar cycles. The prediction is that solar max via sunspot count will peak in late 2013/early 2014:
But, another important indicator, Solar Polar Fields from Mt. Wilson and Wilcox Combined -1966 to Present show that the fields have flipped (crossed the zero line) indicating solar max has indeed happened.
Image from Dr. Leif Svalgaard – Click the pic to view at source.
In other news, Dr. David Hathaway has updated his prediction page on 9/5/13, and suggests solar max may have already occurred. He says:
The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 66 in the Summer of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been flat over the last four months. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.
![ssn_predict_l[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/ssn_predict_l1.gif)
You can watch this video that shows 5 years of cycle 24 predictions from Hathaway, as they shrink from 2005 to 2010. Solar cycle 24 predictions were higher then, and exceeded the SSN max for cycle 23.
Dr. Svalgaard’s prediction in 2005 (with Lund) was for a solar cycle 24 max SSN of 75, and was totally against the consensus for solar cycle 24 predictions of the time. It looks like that might not even be reached. From his briefing then:
Source: http://www.leif.org/research/Cycle%2024%20Prediction%20Lund.pdf
We live in interesting times.
More at the WUWT Solar reference page.
edit: SC25 NOT Sunspot 25
[Fixed. -w.]
I don’t understand this one …
Say what? In September (9/5/13) the prediction was for a maximum of 66 in the summer of 2013?
What am I missing here?
w.
Dr. Deanster says:
September 13, 2013 at 9:20 am
the trend line is negative trend since 2002 .
Judging from this http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_August_2013_v5.6.png
There does not not seem to be a negative trend, but a insignificant positive trend: compare the red curve in 2002 and now.
Willis Eschenbach says:
September 13, 2013 at 9:29 am
“The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 66 in the Summer of 2013.”
What am I missing here?
Predictions are usually made of the 1-yr smoothed sunspot number…
Leif Svalgaard says: “The sun is just a messy place…”
Well, yes, if you’re going to get all technical on us. 🙂
Seriously, Leif, thanks for participating at WUWT. I always enjoy your comments.
sean says: September 13, 2013 at 9:02 am
When referring to Mr. Hathaway’s PREDICTIONS, you may want to disclose which revision number is represented on your graph. It has to be about revision #7, at least. I would like to see his original prediction graphed against actual!
Not sure this was Hathaway’s ORIGINAL prediction Sean, but here goes:
_________________
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/22/wuwt-poll-what-should-we-call-the-current-solar-minimum/#comments
In December 2006, NASA predicted SC24 would be an active one.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/21dec_cycle24.htm
Dec. 21, 2006
Evidence is mounting: the next solar cycle is going to be a big one.
Excerpt:
“Solar cycle 24, due to peak in 2010 or 2011 “looks like its going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago,” says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center. He and colleague Robert Wilson presented this conclusion last week at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco.”
Then in April 2007, this position started to shift:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/PressRelease.html
Excerpt:
“In the cycle forecast issued today, half of the panel predicts a moderately strong cycle of 140 sunspots, plus or minus 20, expected to peak in October of 2011. The other half predicts a moderately weak cycle of 90 sunspots, plus or minus 10, peaking in August of 2012. An average solar cycle ranges from 75 to 155 sunspots. The late decline of Cycle 23 has helped shift the panel away from its earlier leaning toward a strong Cycle 24. Now the group is evenly split between strong and weak.”
Not sure I’d give a lot of points to NASA/NOAA for being on the leading edge, but by 2007 they certainly had the bases covered.
Houston, we have a problem.
I am curious when NASA will make the public announcement that the sun has abruptly changed to a state that is not possible based on the current assumed electro-magnetic model for the sun.
Leif Svalgaard says:
It has actually not cooled either.
Svensmark is quoted as saying cooling is beginning, and so is really making a prediction. Some measures certainly indicate cooling has begun. So this response is not appropriate.
The low solar cycle seems to effecting the ACE count also. North Atlantic cyclone activity.
https://twitter.com/NJSnowFan/status/378542401331011584/photo/1
http://policlimate.com/tropical/natl_ace_to_date.png
http://policlimate.com/tropical/
Gail Combs says:
September 13, 2013 at 6:24 am
Dr. Leif Svalgaard and Pamela Gray should be here soon to tell you that the sun doesn’t influence the climate.
Now that you have beaten us to it, we don’t need to repeat your assertion.
Keep posting the truth guys. Good questioning,and conclusions.
We will be proven correct soon.
Salvatore Del Prete says:
September 13, 2013 at 10:01 am
Keep posting the truth guys.
I’m doing it, I’m doing it. So pay attention.
Leif, I hope everyone is saying what they truely believe right or wrong. I enjoy reading your post believe it not, even though I just do not agree with much of it, but I still learn.
I keep what you say in mind,again believe it or not.
Time will tell, and I think it will be soon..
Stephen Fox says:
September 13, 2013 at 9:47 am
Leif Svalgaard says:
It has actually not cooled either.
Svensmark is quoted as saying cooling is beginning, and so is really making a prediction. Some measures certainly indicate cooling has begun. So this response is not appropriate.
##############
you actually dont want to look for cooling
You need to find more clouds.
Leif Svalgaard, What do you think of Carl Smith’s Rosetta Stone of Solar Science charts theory and Layman’s Sunspot Count process?
http://www.landscheidt.info/
http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50
Thanks much Leif!
Your profound contributions are helping to en”light”en our world(including us/me) on the most important driving force of life on earth(this planet).
Maybe the “coolest” thing going on in science right now, is that we live in this unique time/solar cycle and have capabilities/tools to measure so many different fields/elements/processes related to the sun and use that information to understand the effects on our planet………….like a massive science experiment with a galactic sized laboratory!
Thanks for sharing your scientifically valued knowledge/insight generously.
Stephen Fox says: September 13, 2013 at 9:47 am
Leif Svalgaard says:
It has actually not cooled either.
Stephen:
Svensmark is quoted as saying cooling is beginning, and so is really making a prediction. Some measures certainly indicate cooling has begun. So this response is not appropriate.
Allan:
I suggest with respect that we do not know yet if cooling has begun and we will only know for certain in hindsight, and in due time.
Earth experienced sharp cooling in 2000 and again in 2008 such that the UAH LT temperature anomaly (“LT”) dropped to below -0.2C, temporarily erasing all global warming since the satellites were launched in 1979, but then LT bounced back to about + 0.2C where is oscillates today. The temperature data is variable and trends take time to become apparent.
So I am with Leif on this one…
… and I also wrote in 2002 that global cooling would commence by 2020-2030. Cooling may have started already – but we just do not know.
Just in case though, bundle up! 🙂
Willis Eschenbach says:
September 13, 2013 at 9:29 am
To calculate the smoothed sunspot number for July 2013 add half of the Jan 2013 value plus the sum of the Feb through Dec 2013 values plus half of the Jan 2014 value and by divide the sum by twelve.
We won’t know the actual July 2013 smoothed sunspot number until February 2014!
Low solar cycle seems to be making daily sea ice extent record at Antarctica possible?
43rd Daily Record for Antarctic Sea Ice Extent – 2013 would be 3rd Highest Maximum of All Time
September 11th (Day 254) saw the 43rd Daily Record of the Year for Antarctic Sea Ice Extent. So far, 2013 would be the 3rd highest maximum of All Time behind 2012 and 2006.
2012′s maximum was 19.47713 million sq km
2006′s maximum was 19.35934 million sq km
2013′s maximum so far is 19.35119 million sq km
http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2013/09/12/43rd-daily-record-for-antarctic-sea-ice-extent-2013-would-be-3rd-highest-maximum-of-all-time/
A hot sheet item for sure
This is a great time for a challenge to the theory that its the sun stupid.
Looks like we are close to max.
In the US we have 110 stations (CRN) that have records ( min, hour, day, month) going back to the last Max ( or very close to it)
These stations are the gold standard according to WUWT
They record temperature, clouds, sun, wind etc.
Anyone who has a working theory of how the sun effects the climate should be able to make TESTABLE predictions about the next 5 to 10 years.
edit +-.2C should be +0.2C – apologies
[Fixed. -w.]
Considering quantum effects, could there be entanglement between processes in the inner sun that could result in rapid surface changes?
I became a climate refugee this spring when we moved from central Oregon to the Palm Springs area. My thought at that time was a downsizing move from snow blowing and pine needle raking. Looks like I will need to wait a while to see if it was also a really smart early move from a “Little Ice Age”.
– – – – – – – –
ferd berple,
I suggest those thoughts will resonate more strongly within our culture. More money therefore will flow into research on non-AGW climate behavior.
As for scientific dialog on whether there will be significant climate cooling if we are going into a Maunder-like solar pattern, that kind of dialog is going to escalate. I do not support that connection . . . yet.
A few doubt assessment thoughts:
A) I have little doubt that the Sun is, by many orders of magnitude, the dominate net source of energy of the Earth-Atmosphere System (EAS). I have little doubt that we have not placed anywhere near enough priority on studying potential impacts on the EAS of the Sun’s subtle & not so subtle variations.
B) I have very little doubt that there will a glacial period at the end of the interglacial period we are in. I have little doubt that we do not know the timing. I have little doubt we do not know the variations in the rate of change on the decadal scale of its expected temperature patterns. I have little doubt it will be studied more than it previously has been.
C) I have little doubt there will be a wholesale and chaotic intellectual catharsis of the entrenched IPCC centric community as the cultural / science focus pendulum shifts away from their myopia. I have little doubt that it is unpredictable when a reasonable balance in the science on the EAS will be achieved. I have little doubt the pendulum has already started shifting away from them.
John
Where would one find the UV flux through all of this? It dropped off an amazing 7% at the end of cycle 23. I looked on the SORCE sight and could not find anything recent. I presume it did not recover from the cycle 23 minimum to cycle 23 max values. UV could very well be an important sub surface heating mechanism to the tropical oceans and a valid reason why global temperatures track sunspot activity nearly perfectly.
Chuck Wiese
Meteorologist