Global warming is 'no longer a planetary emergency'

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, reporting from Erice, Sicily

ERICE, SICILY – It’s official. The scare is over. The World Federation of Scientists, at its annual seminars on planetary emergencies, has been advised by its own climate monitoring panel that global warming is no longer a planetary emergency.

The President of the Italian Senate, Judge Pietro Grasso, who was the judge in Sicily’s first maxiprocesso, a class-action prosecution of dozens of Mafiosi who were sent to prison for a total of 2600 years, gave the magistral lecture at the opening plenary session of the seminars, which ended this week.

Both Judge Grasso and the President of the Federation, Professor Antonino Zichichi, said that care should be taken to examine carefully the basis for concern about CO2 emissions as well as the relevance and cost-effectiveness of proposed mitigation measures.

Last year’s magistral lecture to the Federation was by Professor Vaclav Klaus, then president of the Czech Republic, whose talk was entitled The manmade contribution to global warming is not a planetary emergency.

President Klaus had said: “Current as well as realistically foreseeable global warming, and especially Man’s contribution to it, is not a planetary emergency which should bother us. … My reading both of the available data and of conflicting scientific arguments and theories allows me to argue that it is not global warming caused by human activity that is threatening us.”

This year Dr. Christopher Essex, Professor of Applied Mathematics at the University of Western Ontario and chairman of the Federation’s permanent monitoring panel on climate, gave the Federation’s closing plenary session his panel’s confirmation that “Climate change in itself is not a planetary emergency.”

clip_image004 clip_image006 clip_image008 clip_image010

Left to right: Christopher Essex, Pietro Grasso, Vaclav Klaus, and Antonino Zichichi.

Professor Essex pointed out that history had shown illegitimate political movements inventing false emergencies to bypass democratic constraints on their quest for absolute power.

The Earth’s climate, he said, is a dynamic and continually-changing system. “Human societies have lived and thriven under every conceivable climate, and modern technology makes adaptation to changing weather conditions entirely routine.”

The increasing fraction of CO2 in the air could be expected to result in some warming, but it had been accepted that “the benefits of food production and the relief of starvation overwhelm concerns about the potential climate changes induced by land-surface modification.” He said the panel thought it essential to ask whether similar reasoning applied to global fossil-energy production.

On behalf of the climate monitoring panel, Professor Essex also spoke up for scientists who have been bullied, threatened or even dismissed for having dared to question the Party Line on climate. He said: “Our greatest concern at present is that the intellectual climate for scientific investigation of these matters has become so hostile and politicized that the necessary research and debate cannot freely take place.

“Political constraints take the form of declaring the underlying science to be settled when it clearly is not; defunding or denigrating research that is perceived to threaten the case for renewable energy; or the use of odious pejoratives like “denialist” to describe dissent from officially-sanctioned views on climate science.”

Professors Bob Carter and Murry Salby, who had questioned the severity of Man’s influence on the climate, were both ejected by their universities this year.

Professor Essex called for “free and open debate on all aspects of climate science, even where hypotheses are put forward for examination that openly contradict the official positions of political entities.”

He said the panel found persuasive indications that climate models systematically understated natural climate variability and significantly exaggerated the impact of CO2 emissions. Accordingly, past, present and proposed policy measures could be shown not to provide net benefits to society regardless of the rate at which the planet might warm. Limited resources would be better devoted to more pressing issues.

================================================================

UPDATE: The WFS is revising their website on the subject, see below:

WFS_AGW_page

Source: http://www.federationofscientists.org/PMPanels/Climate/ClimatePMP.asp

According to the Wayback Machine, this is how it used to read:

Summary of the Emergency

The safety and well-being of human populations are threatened by the variability and change in both the climate and the composition of Earth’s atmosphere. Research into these trends is being significantly influenced by a number of factors:

  1. What was once a relatively easy and low-cost task of obtaining data for studying and predicting these changes, is now becoming expensive, complicated and threatening as data are copyrighted and offered on a ‘for sale’ basis by international co-ordinating bodies.
  2. Global monitoring of trends requires inter-comparability and continuity of key observations, combined with the recovery of historical information. Unfortunately, observation systems for gathering climatic data are becoming increasingly costly and difficult to maintain. Furthermore, some of the standard systems upon which climate research depends (e.g. the international upper-air sounding system) are being eroded.
  3. The quality of the information provided to the lay public, industry and governments is critical to the public perception of this issue and the scientists studying it. This, in turn, affects the allocation of limited resources for research and, ultimately, to public well-being. Unfortunately, the quality and reliability of the information is highly variable and is sometimes distorted. Scientists need to do a better job of communicating such information to present an accurate and timely perspective on the significance of their research and its accomplishments.

Priorities in dealing with the Emergency

The priorities in dealing with the emergency are:

  • To encourage and support free access to data on climate change
  • To monitor the monitoring of the global environment
  • To stimulate the education of the public with regard to the causes and effects of climate change.

To monitor:

  1. The increasing vulnerability of human society to the effects of climate change (e.g. More and more people living on flood plains and in areas threatened by tropical cyclones).
  2. Climatic extremes (e.g. droughts) to determine the extent of change and variability.
  3. Ways in which vulnerability to climatic disasters can be reduced (e.g. forecasting drought in order to avoid famine).
  4. Improved methods of forecasting variability and change (e.g. improved models for predicting El Niño) and the responsible issue of forecast products.
  5. The adequacy of climate-observing networks in light of the present and continuing deterioration of the current systems.
  6. Possible human influences on climate and on atmospheric composition and chemistry (e.g. increased greenhouse gases and tropospheric ozone).
  7. The possible effects of natural episodic influences on the climate (e.g. volcanic activity).
  8. The effects of the commercialisation of national meteorological services on data and information services, observation networks and prediction research.

===============================================================

UPDATE2: 08-31-13

Ross McKitrick writes in comments:

Ros says:

I dislike it when a committee of larger groups like the AGU or the AMS express their personal views on a complex subject like global warming and claim to speak for the entire membership, and I would be no more fond of it when it happens at the WFS. However, that is not what happened here. The Erice Seminar on Planetary Emergencies covers a wide range of topics, such as nuclear power, infectious diseases, terrorism, etc. People are invited based on their involvement in one specific area. They participate in topic panels, as well as the general plenary sessions. One of the plenaries is devoted to reports from the topic panels (called Permanent Monitoring Panels), and Chris gave the summary for the climate panel. However, while he discussed what his summary would say and asked for input ahead of time, he did not presume to speak for the WFS, or even for the climate group, since everyone at such a meeting is capable of speaking for him or herself, and indeed is encouraged to do so. His comments were well-received and I suspect many in the room agreed with all of them, but it’s not correct to say that the WFS took a position.

[Note: Steve McIntyre writes in an email to me that he endorses this comment from Ross:

Monckton wanted the conference to make an official statement but it didn’t. Monckton’s post led many WUWT readers to conclude that the WFS had taken an “official” position, but this is not correct and unfair to WFS members who do not agree.

Dr. Christopher Essex, chairman, Monitoring Panel on Climate,

World Federation of Scientists, also writes:

I support Ross’s comment as a valid clarification.

– Anthony]

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JimS

I believe Lord Monckton is pulling our leg.

Rick K

I believe Lord Monckton.

I take it M. Mann was not on the speakers list.

R. de Haan

Now how can we pin this message on our media, our politicians and how do we get rid of all the regulations, taxes and money sucking programs? This is important because otherwise the entire circus continues. I want my money back.

Greg White

The WFS is revising their website on the subject; http://www.federationofscientists.org/PMPanels/Climate/ClimatePMP.asp

viejecita

The one thing better than reading Lord Monckton’s texts is listening and watching him as he explains them live.

Pamela Gray

Well that oughta put somebodies’ knickers in a twist. And could eventually lead to an UNPRECEDENTED retraction of hundreds of papers. Karma bites don’t it.

albertalad

Heck of a day to be Canadian! Thank you Dr. Christopher Essex, Professor of Applied Mathematics at the University of Western Ontario, and thank you for reporting Lord Monckton!

Gail Combs

So what is the next SCARE?
‘They’ want power and money and they won’t just slink off into the night. ‘They’ have had a taste of blood (tax payer money) and killing the Zombie bureaucratic apparatus is not going to be easy. The USA STILL has the bureaucratic apparatus put in place to deal with prohibition it just shifted focus.

Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF)
http://www.allgov.com/departments/department-of-justice/bureau-of-alcohol-tobacco-firearms-and-explosives-atf?agencyid=7192
In 1886, the Bureau of Internal Revenue began its Revenue Laboratory with a single employee from the Department of Agriculture.
In the era of Prohibition, criminal investigations of internal revenue laws became more prominent and were organized under the Prohibition Unit in 1920. As part of an effort to bolster enforcement efforts, the Treasury Department elevated the Unit to bureau status in 1927….
In 1933, President Franklin Roosevelt established the Federal Alcohol Control Administration (FACA), which aimed to regulate the legitimate alcohol industry. In 1935, the Federal Alcohol Administration (FAA, in the Treasury) replaced FACA as regulator of the alcohol industry.
After prohibition ended, its policies continued to shape the ATF. In 1934, the Department of Justice’s Prohibition enforcement duties were subsumed into the Alcohol Tax Unit (ATU) within the Bureau of Internal Revenue, in the Treasury. Meanwhile, FAA, also within the Treasury, oversaw regulation of the alcohol industry. The FAA was merged with the ATU in 1940.
In 1934 Congress passed the National Firearms Act and, four years later, the Federal Firearms Act, for which the Miscellaneous Tax Unit, Bureau of Internal Revenue, collected fees. In 1942 enforcement duties were delegated to ATU…
In 2003, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms (ATF) and its law enforcement functions were transferred under the Homeland Security bill to the Department of Justice. The tax and trade functions of ATF remain in the Treasury Department with the new Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau. The agency’s name was changed to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives…..

Bureaucracies are like parasites. They continue to grow until they finally kill the host. The average of the world’s great civilizations before they decline has been 200 years.

Gunga Din

I made this comment under another post.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/27/the-hottest-temperature-game/#comment-1402015
Nice to know that there is a group that has resisted the corruption.

JackT

And then the alcohol wore off and he woke up! (sarc) Hope that we are seeing a change in world views, but don’t hold your breath. Any major papers printing these opinions?

Larry Butler

http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/index.htm
I’m sorry, your lordship. In the United States Dept. of Agriculture, alone, we now have so many high paid scientists (38) and bureaucrats (who knows?) in the Climate Change bureaucracy we cannot afford to put that many people out of their government jobs. The Climate must change, no matter what. If it doesn’t, we must cause it to create panic to keep these people, and their whole department, in work.
How sad the hoax has, like ancient religions, become “truth”, even if it’s a lie.

Iggy Slanter

The next scare is going to be water (precious, precious water). They have been building up for it ever since they realized that the warming scare had lost its legs.

J. Locke

before I send this out to my CAGW cult member friends, is this real?

Kurt in Switzerland

Does anyone have a link to the proceedings?
Kurt in Switzerland

Jabber

Not one word of press anywhere. Not one….

C.M. Carmichael

There is no one in the “climate debate” that I enjoy hearing from more than Lord Monckton (sorry Anthony). He puts the “civilized” back into civilized debate, and for a math whiz, he is pretty funny.

Gary Pearse

So were there any journalists covering this? Is there a press release? Shouldn’t we be sending it around – although everyone in the sector reads WUWT. Hi Kevin, Mike….

Very, very nice. A major step and one more thing for Gang Green to weep into their pillows over. The MSM had better get its act together – which one of them will lead the way out? There’s been rumblings, now let’s see the mass exodus.
Thank you so much, Christopher Monckton. 😀

cd

I’ve heard all this before, sounds like more preachers preaching to the converted. I don’t think we’re getting anywhere – not that I don’t appreciate your hard work and dedication, but until you get a MSM platform upon which to debate your opponents then you’re just shouting in the wilderness.
The science has turned and the whole thing is looking rather desperate but as much as the public don’t perceive climate change a problem, they don’t care about government policy.

M Courtney

The World Federation of Scientists…
Who?
I’ve never heard of them.
And if I had I would be fighting their inevitable tendency towards consensus-forming, closed-mindedness.
Not that I disagree with them just, so what?

dp

I agree that the Next Big Scare will be over water, aquifers, specifically, and particularly the threat to them caused by the new evil, frac’ing. I don’t see a way yet to monetize it nor to demonize the NBS opponents (Republicans – it’s always Republicans). I’m not deviant enough to see such evil, I guess. Meanwhile, Crazee Barry is still president so I wouldn’t let my guard down.

Bruce Cobb

Not an emergency? It’s not even a problem, and never was. Still, it’s a step in the right direction.

Henry Galt

http://www.federationofscientists.org/PlanetaryEmergencies/Seminars/45th/Essex%20PMP.pdf
Ulric Lyons- please note the last entry 😉
“”…there is a clever way to push the discussion to a more pragmatic level: give a prize for actually doing successfully what is in doubt. But is it possible to define an intelligent criterion for what an accurate long-term forecast would be? Perhaps it would involve some climate version of meteorological skill. A substantial prize would be offered to the first person or team able to achieve it. “”

Gunga Din

Iggy Slanter says:
August 28, 2013 at 1:28 pm
The next scare is going to be water (precious, precious water). They have been building up for it ever since they realized that the warming scare had lost its legs.

=====================================================================
The animal rights activist have been keeping the “water warning” warm for a couple of decades now. (The amount of water used for “factory farms” etc.)

H.R.

“The World Federation of Scientists, at its annual seminars on planetary emergencies, has been advised by its own climate monitoring panel that global warming is no longer a planetary emergency.”
========================================================
Somebody pass this on to Al Gore so he can unclench a little. I’m sure he’ll be relieved, right?

Gail Combs

M Courtney says: @ August 28, 2013 at 1:44 pm
The World Federation of Scientists…
Who?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The World Federation of Scientists

Henry Galt

Both the ‘Summary of the Emergency’ and the ‘Priorities in dealing with the Emergency’ pages are ‘Being revised.’

RockyRoad

This ought to make heads explode!
Why, Mann would be incensed if his local dog-catcher’s union came out with this pronouncement.

Eli understands that there is some betting action to be had on your earlier claim that “A math geek with a track-record of getting stuff right tells me we are in for 0.5 Cº of global cooling. It could happen in two years, but is very likely by 2020.”. It is for two bets of $1000 each from John Abraham to Lord Monckton. Given your claims here, you must believe that this would be easy money. John has added a codicil that if you wish the bet can be for benefit of a charity chose by either side, but who knows, maybe you need the money?
Eli is looking perhaps for some smaller side bets on the proposition and what the good Lord’s reaction will be.

JimS

Yes, the World Federation of Scientists, aka, the missing 3%. LOL!

Troll posing as Eli Rabett:
re your post at August 28, 2013 at 2:03 pm
Please be assured that nobody cares about the “betting action” of an idiot so deluded that he is unaware of his own name or his own person. Similarly, nobody cares about the “betting action” of even lesser men than the troll (yes, it is hard to believe, but they do exist).
So you need not waste space on WUWT with such nonsense again.
Richard

Reblogged this on Power To The People and commented:
It’s official, there is no “runaway global warming” that “will destroy our civilization” in fact the data shows no signs of increasing heat waves or extreme weather. http://notrickszone.com/2013/08/24/observed-temperature-data-show-no-signs-of-increasing-global-heat-waves-or-extremes/
As to green energy being so great Germany’s experience after spending a trillions of euros is that their coal consumption has gone up and so has CO2 emissions. http://notrickszone.com/2013/02/20/germanys-climate-warming-co2-emissions-rose-in-2012-despite-1-trillion-euro-renewable-energy-transition/
http://notrickszone.com/2013/01/12/germanys-green-energiewende-energy-transition-has-only-led-to-greater-coal-consumption/
Time to stop the AGW scam and spend our limited resources on resolving real problems not imaginary ones.

Gail Combs

Gunga Din says: @ August 28, 2013 at 1:49 pm
The animal rights activist have been keeping the “water warning” warm for a couple of decades now. (The amount of water used for “factory farms” etc.)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Actually the person to watch is another Canadian.
This is from a few years ago in response to the much hated HR875, the food takeover bill. (See: Trojan Horse Law: The Food Safety Modernization Act of 2009… DeLauro’s own bill includes a broad jurisdictional provision that creates a presumption that home gardens do affect interstate commerce. Section 406 of the bill reads as follows:…. )
I could not understand WHY Organic Consumers Assoc. and Food and Water Watch were in favor of this bill. That is until I did some digging: Maude Barlow a “no dog in this fight” Canadian, is a director of both. She has been handsomely rewarded for selling the US consumer out with an appointment as New Senior Advisor to the UN president on October 21, 2008.

October 21, 2008 Maude Barlow named 1st UN water adviser
Canadian activist Maude Barlow has been appointed as the United Nation’s first senior adviser on water issues, a role she hopes to use to establish water as a human right and to convince Canada to “change its shameful position” on the issue.
Barlow, chair of the citizens’ advocacy group Council of Canadians, will work with the current president of the UN General Assembly, Miguel d’Escoto Brockmann.
“This is a wonderful opportunity to advance a more democratic and transparent method of policy making around water at the global level than now exists,” Barlow said in a press release. “Water is a commons, a public trust and a human right.”
Barlow said there’s “growing momentum” in the international community for water justice but will focus some of her attention on her home country…..

Small world isn’t it when you are talking about our would be masters.

Tom G(ologist)

To Larry Butler:
Permit me to quote the inimitable William J Lapetome (fictitious governor in Mel Brookes’ Blazing Saddles:
“Gentlemen! We’ve got to protect our phoney-baloney jobs!”

taxed

Off topic.
But l would like to draw your attention to the mid Atlantic. l have spotted something that could be of interest. There is a small risk we could be have the first hurricane of the season. lts to the north of the main band of storms and showers in the mid Atlantic. lts a small group of showers and it looks like they just may spin themselves up into a storm. Because much of the cloud cover is lower to mid height the chances are that it will not amount to much. But they is a risk that it could grow very quickly into something. l think its one to watch just in case.

Resourceguy

It’s great to have a mafia-busting judge on board to help save good pubic policy and science from the other thugs out there.

Aphan

Resourceguy-
“It’s great to have a mafia-busting judge on board to help save good pubic policy and science from the other thugs out there.”
I think everyone on both sides can agree that we all need good pubic policies…..:)

RockyRoad

Here’s a video of your quotation, Tom:

I’m not sure whether to laugh or cry.

Thanks, Christopher. An excellent post…as usual.
I’m jealous! You get to go to all the nice places like Erice, Sicily:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erice

Thanks, Tom G(ologist) and RockyRoad.

RockyRoad

JimS says:
August 28, 2013 at 2:07 pm

Yes, the World Federation of Scientists, aka, the missing 3%. LOL!

Are you that brainwashed, Jim?

Ed, 'Mr Jones'

Forwarded to Drudge. Things like this need to be disseminated!

Fred Allen

With this revelation, can we combine the events in Syria with the developments in the science of global warming and launch Mann, Hansen, et al along with thousands of activist whores at Syria instead of cruise missiles? They’ll rob the Syrian government blind.

cd

Rocky
JomS is being a little facetious – I hope. But there is something in what he says. I’ve never heard of WFS. Call me cynical but I’ve heard these sort of declarations before. Now if the IPCC came out with it then I’d be getting excited.

Apoxonbothyourhouses

If, CM, you are still there in Erice … near the gate entrance is THE best almond patisserie. Pause in your presentations and taste a little of heaven.

Steven Kopits

I spent a good bit of the conference at Erice in the company of Lord Monckton as well as Chris Essex and other climate scientists. The tone there is primarily skeptic, certainly in the climate group.
I would note, however, that those gathered believe that i) the globe has warmed, and ii) it may continue to warm in the future, iii) that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and iv) that mankind is contributing some component to recent warming. I would also offer that opinions differed as to whether we know enough about climate systems to be able to definitely declare global warming a non-issue.
However, temperatures have clearly stalled by a number of measures over the last decade to fifteen years, as stories here at WUWT have shown. Many of the Erice climate experts have long believed that climate sensitivity to CO2 was over-stated, and in fact, the data are increasingly supporting that view. It is, I believe, in this sense that global warming has been demoted as a “planetary emergency”.
I think it premature to state that the we can put the whole warming issue behind us (for political reasons, if nothing else), but clearly the experts gathered there were increasingly confident and optimistic that long-held skeptic views would prevail. The climate change issue may not yet have left the hospital, but it is no longer in intensive care, and just as Lord Monckton says, we may begin to assert that it is not a “planetary emergency.”

All I know of Erice is that Steve McIntyre used to go and report each year. Lots of local heroes feature in the reports.

Now how hard was that to post a picture of Vaklav Klaus instead of Fracking Protesteri Anthropos Patheticus?

george e. smith

“””””…..Eli Rabett says:
August 28, 2013 at 2:03 pm
Eli understands that there is some betting action to be had on your earlier claim that “A math geek with a track-record of getting stuff right tells me we are in for 0.5 Cº of global cooling. It could happen in two years, but is very likely by 2020.”. It is for two bets of $1000 each from John Abraham to Lord Monckton. Given your claims here, you must believe that this would be easy money. John has added a codicil that if you wish the bet can be for benefit of a charity chose by either side, but who knows, maybe you need the money?
Eli is looking perhaps for some smaller side bets on the proposition and what the good Lord’s reaction will be……..””””””‘
Well in the talk of betting, I would bet that Lord Monckton, who is a known classics scholar , and referee of correct English, might have something to say about that awkward side chatter going on in the middle, between Eli understanding something ; and Eli looking for something.
I’ll leave it you, Viscount Monckton to figure out who is talking to whom; during Eli’s flight of forgetfulness off into the third person.

Jimbo

There never was a planetary emergency. James Homer Hanson decided it was due to correlation and ‘necessary adjustment’.