A grand experiment is being conducted in the Arctic this year that may not only falsify a prediction made in 2007, but may also further distance a connection between Arctic air temperature and sea ice decline.
You may have noticed the countdown widget at the top of the right sidebar. I’ve been waiting for this event all summer, and now that we are just over a month away from the Autumnal Equinox at September 22, at 20:44 UTC., (4:44PM EDT) signifying the end of summer in the Northern Hemisphere, this seemed like a good time to start the countdown. If there is still significant ice (1 million square kilometers or more as defined by Zwally, see below) in place then, we can consider that this claim by Maslowski in 2007 to be falsified:
Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
What is most interesting though, is that Arctic temperatures seem to be in early decline, ahead of schedule by about 30 days compared to last year’s record melt:
Figure 1A: Overlay of temperature plots for 2012 and 2013 from the Danish Meteorological Institute.
Note that in Figure 1A, for 2013 the temperature has fallen below that which is needed to freeze seawater (approximately -1.8°C according to Peter Wadhams) at 271°K (-2.15°C). It is also approximmately 30 days ahead of the date that the temperature fell to the same value last year, and so far, the current situation with early colder temperature seems to be unique in the DMI temperature record back to 1958. However, it is worth noting that DMI has a caveat not to take the actual temperatures too literally.
…since the model is gridded in a regular 0.5 degree grid, the mean temperature values are strongly biased towards the temperature in the most northern part of the Arctic! Therefore, do NOT use this measure as an actual physical mean temperature of the arctic. The ‘plus 80 North mean temperature’graphs can be used for comparing one year to an other.
As if on cue for that caveat, shortly after I prepared figure 1A, DMI updated their plot to show a bit of a rebound:
Figure 1B DMI plot for today.
But there are other indications, for example this plot from NOAA ESRL, showing air temperatures well below freezing in the region:
Figure 2: Surface air temperatures in C Source: NOAA ESRL – Click the pic to view at sourceAnd, extent this year is ahead of extent for this time last year and within the standard deviation range (grey shading):
Figure 3: Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) – Centre for Ocean and Ice – Click the pic to view at sourceAfter a new record low in Arctic sea ice extent in 2012, the phrase “Nature abhors a vaccum” comes to mind as indicators suggest this melt season may end earlier than usual. The earliest that a turn in Arctic melt season was recorded in the satellite record was on September 2nd, 1987. With 14 days to go, will we see an earlier turn?
If we do, it might suggest (as many believe) that sea ice melt is directly tied to air temperature and the effects of increased CO2 on air temperature via the polar amplification we are often told about where the Arctic is the fastest warming place in the world.
Figure 4: The map above shows global temperature anomalies for 2000 to 2009. It does not depict absolute temperature, but rather how much warmer or colder a region is compared to the norm for that region from 1951 to 1980. Global temperatures from 2000–2009 were on average about 0.6°C higher than they were from 1951–1980. The Arctic, however, was about 2°C warmer. Based on GISS surface temperature analysis data including ship and buoy data from the Hadley Centre.
Image Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_amplification
If the melt continues, and turns around the normal time, which is usually +/- 5 days of the Autumnal Equinox on September 22nd, then we can assume other forcings are dominant this year, such as ocean currents and cycles like the AMO, winds, and ocean temperature below the sea ice. There’s also the unanswered question of the effects of black carbon soot.
If in spite of the early drop in temperatures, the Arctic sea ice extent ice drops below 1 million square kilometers, as NASA’s Jay Zwally famously predicted (with an assist from AP’s Seth Borenstein): “…the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012″ then most certainly all bets are off.
But if we see an early turn, it will falsify Maslowski’s and Zwally’s forecasts. Also, if the melt marches on despite the colder temperatures, it will force a reconsideration of what is really driving Arctic melt patterns.
Interestingly, the final ARCUS sea ice forecast has been published on August 16th,and the ranges of predictions are quite broad, spanning 2.2 million square kilometers from the most optimistic NOAA’s Msadek et al. at 5.8 msq/km to the perennially gloomy “Neven” whose Artic Sea Ice blog poll predicts 3.6 msq/km.
See http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2013/august
They write:
The Sea Ice Outlook organizers decided, with input from contributors and readers, to skip an August report this year in favor of a more thorough post-season report.
However, we provided this webpage to post and share individual contributors¹ August outlooks; the individual outlooks are below.
Since ARCUS didn’t plot them, I’ve plotted all the participant forecasts below.
Figure 5: plot of September Arctic Sea Ice Extent Mean forecasts submitted to ARCUS in August 2013.
Interestingly, I discovered that Robert Grumbine has participated in two forecasts (Wu and Wang) as a co-author, each with a different prediction, so that seems rather odd to me.
WUWT’s value is based on a weighted calculation of the top five vote getters in our poll here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/11/sea-ice-news-volume-4-3-2013-sea-ice-forecast-contest/
The most popular value picked by WUWT readers was 5.0 msq/km 8.9% (94 votes), though it wasn’t a runaway vote, hence I opted for a weighted average of the top 5 vote getters.
Most importantly, none of the ARCUS forecasts participants suggested an ice-free Arctic, which is bad news for Maslowski’s prediction.
No matter what happens, we live in interesting times.
As always the WUWT Sea Ice reference page has interesting plots of data at a glance: http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/
UPDATE: Commenter “jimbo” adds in comments –
Here is a compilation of ice-free Arctic Ocean / North Pole predictions / projections from scientists for the past, present and future.
Xinhua News Agency – 1 March 2008
“If Norway’s average temperature this year equals that in 2007, the ice cap in the Arctic will all melt away, which is highly possible judging from current conditions,” Orheim said.
[Dr. Olav Orheim – Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat]
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Canada.com – 16 November 2007
“According to these models, there will be no sea ice left in the summer in the Arctic Ocean somewhere between 2010 and 2015.
“And it’s probably going to happen even faster than that,” said Fortier,””
[Professor Louis Fortier – Université Laval, Director ArcticNet]
__________________
National Geographic – 12 December 2007
“NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.” ”
[Dr. Jay Zwally – NASA]
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BBC – 12 December 2007
“Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,”…….”So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”
[Professor Wieslaw Maslowski]
__________________
Independent – 27 June 2008
Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer
“…..It is quite likely that the North Pole will be exposed this summer – it’s not happened before,” Professor Wadhams said.”
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]
__________________
Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
Vol. 40: 625-654 – May 2012
The Future of Arctic Sea Ice
“…..one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover…..”
[Professor Wieslaw Maslowski]
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Yale Environment360 – 30 August 2012
“If this rate of melting [in 2012] is sustained in 2013, we are staring down the barrel and looking at a summer Arctic which is potentially free of sea ice within this decade,”
[Dr. Mark Drinkwater]
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Guardian – 17 September 2012
“This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates“.
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]
__________________
Sierra Club – March 23, 2013
“For the record—I do not think that any sea ice will survive this summer. An event unprecedented in human history is today, this very moment, transpiring in the Arctic Ocean….”
[Paul Beckwith – PhD student paleoclimatology and climatology – part-time professor]
__________________
Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013
“It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,”
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]
__________________
Sasha and Caleb,
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/faq/#summer_ice
(Forgot to add)
Caleb says: @ur momisugly August 19, 2013 at 9:28 am
…..I think this was the case when the Vikings settled Greenland and raised over 2000 cows and over 100,000 sheep and goats. Why? Because, during a cold winter here in New Hampshire one of the biggest battles is making sure my goats get enough water. It always freezes and you have to bash through the ice in buckets (or buy electronic gadgets to keep the water thawed.) The sheer amount of ice-bashing involved, to allow 100,000 sheep and goats to drink, would dull the toughest Viking’s ax and leave him exhausted. Therefore winters must have been considerably warmer, and the only way for it to be that much warmer would be to have an utterly transformed north wind, from a relatively ice-free Arctic ocean.
I rest my case.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
That brings back really bad memories of fighting the ice in water buckets.
We used the yoke from a canoe and buckets to bring hot water to the animals when living near NH/MA border. Hubby, slipped and fell on the trip down the hill and almost froze to death. (Fall stunned him, luckily I was watching.) That was what convinced him to agree to moving south.
The urbanites with their visions of Unicorns and Bambi have no idea of how brutal nature really is. Unfortunately 79% of the US population lives in ‘Urban’ areas and their only contact with nature is mowed lawns, landscaped trees and bushes, squirrels, birds and the occasional bunny wabbit.
Philip Bradley says:
August 19, 2013 at 3:05 am
///////////////////////
Philip
1. you misunderstand the point I make. Id not doubt that there is some positive feedback change resulting from a change in albedo (ie., less ice) but there is also a negative feedback response (ie., greater ocean cooling since the ice cap which acts like a sauspan lid is gone). I am observing that one usually only hears about the positive forcing and not also the corresponding negative feedback.
2. I have postulated that if there is in fact any additional warming resulting from the albedo change this is effectively cancelled out by the additional cooling which results from the ocean being able to dissipate its heat more efficiently due to loss of the ice cap.
3. The Tropical/equatorial ocean is the key to this planet’s climate. It is the energy in this portion of the globe that is important. The Arctic is a bit player by comparison.
4. I may have mis-read the NASA diagram, but is not the correct position to consider how much energy is going into the region 23.5degS through to 23.5degN and compare this with how much energy is going into 60degN?
5. Further to 4 above, the amount of energy going into 60N never at any time during the year exceeds that going into the equator, nor that going into 23.5deg N. For 3 months of the year (May to August) it marginally exceeds the amount of energy going into 23.5degS. However, when one takes the amount of energy going into the area of the globe bounded by the tropics (23.5N to 23.5S) this area at all times receives considerably more energy than the Arctic does at any time of the year.
Unless the curve does something drastically different than most years we are not going to see a low of 1M let alone 2M or really even 3M. Seems to be tracking 2009.
If low extent is greater than 5.39 million sq. km. in 2009, then 2013 will be highest year since 2006 (5.92 M sq km), according to Meier’s data.
http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/sea_ice.html
barry says:
“Arctic sea Ice loss over the past 16-17 years…”
I suggest keeping your hands in your pockets in order to avoid that incessant hand-waving.
This is simply natural climate variability in action, and it is counteracted by even greater Antarctic ice gain.
Much empirical evidence has been posted here showing that the current Arctic ice cover is entirely normal. But you insist on pointing to the natural Arctic ice fluctuation as something to be worried about.
I suppose that is to be expected, since every other alarmist prediction has gone down in flames. Arctic ice is all you have left. What are you going to do when that prediction is proven to be nonsense? Invent a new scare?
Sevreal posters have pointed out that the assertion, “Not one AGW proposal, policy measure, or treaty has done anything of significance” is incorrect.
I agree. The corrected assertion should be “Not one AGW proposal, policy measure, or treaty has done anything to ‘help’ anyone except those who have received money to implement the proposals, enforce the policy measures, or negotiate the treaties”.
hunter:
re your post at August 19, 2013 at 11:43 am.
Seconded!
Richard
Donald K. Chilo said:
“Less ice in the Arctic does change the weather patterns.This author has observed much more looping and blocking patterns resulting in more unusual extreme weather”
From about 1980 to 2000 the reducing Arctic was accompanied by less looping and blocking.
From 2000 to date Arctic ice continued to decrease but more looping and blocking began.
Around 2000 solar activity levels changed.
There are now signs of Arctic ice stabilisation and possibly recovery.
This certainly is quite the topic. Many people have varied opinions. We will have to wait and maybe see how this really plays out. In graduate school, back in the late 80s, I believed we had no control over climate and Arctic ice loss predictions, along with Global warming were myths, but now I am not so sure of that conclusion either. The more I’ve learned, the less I know for sure. I feel there is something going on and it may not be real good for future generations. This is why I am concerned and believe it does need more study. What we do now, sends a message into a future that we will not see.
Donald K. Chilo says:
Based on the complex solar and orbital cycles we should actually see cooling in the Arctic now, so what is troubling atmospheric scientists like myself is why are we seeing the opposite. The evidence is overwhelming that the Arctic has been on a warming trend. The question now, is why?
Do “atmospheric scientists” such as yourself actually have an expectation that “complex orbital and solar cycles” that have periodicity measured in tens of thousands of years are going to cause the far more complex terrestrial climate system to demonstrate monotonic matching behavior over timescales of a few decades? Really?
If there is a better explanation …
Your “just so” story is not an explanation. It is an assertion. An assertion of causes and effects, neither of which is demonstrated.
Donald K. Chilo says:
August 19, 2013 at 12:21 pm
There have been thousands of summers with Arctic sea ice extent much lower than today, just in the past 10,000 years.
A warmer planet, including a warmer Arctic, is good for life here in general & humans in particular.
Air temperature, whether driven by man-made CO2 or not, is not the main forcing on sea ice extent. Water conditions, storms, solar radiation & orbital mechanics are. A warmer Arctic should be less stormy, not more.
As you’re no doubt aware, Arctic sea ice thickness fell in the ’80s & early ’90s compared to the ’70s, then stabilized, if not grew thereafter. Similar fluctuations were observed by subs in the ’50s & ’60s. Antarctic sea ice is not only growing in maximum extent but thickening. The East Antarctic Ice Sheet, reservoir of most of the ice on earth, quit shrinking 3000 years ago, as measured by the radioactivity of soil exposed at its margin.
Arctic sea ice extent varies primarily with the PDO & AMO, only discovered since 1997. If air temperature were the main driver of sea ice, then the Antarctic would also be losing ice.
CACCA is utterly anti-scientific garbage. In any case, less sea ice is not a bad thing, although the good times of a more navigable north are probably fading again.
Donald K. Chilo:
In your post at August 19, 2013 at 12:21 pm
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/18/sea-ice-news-volume-4-number-4-the-maslowski-countdown-to-an-ice-free-arctic-begins/#comment-1394712
“Maybe” it does, and “maybe” it doesn’t.
Do you have any scientific evidence to support your conjecture which is – at present – unfounded scaremongering?
Richard
Well, it’s worse than we thought.
[Yes, some can still think!]
I’ve consulted my settee – a sort of settle – and checked it’s well made.
I therefore conclude that the Settle is scienced.
Mod – do I need to add the [SARC – and how!] tag?
Donald K. Chilo says:
August 19, 2013 at 12:21 pm
We will see how this turns out. Exactly when it happens, nobody knows for sure but the ice has reached a critical point in the past few years where it is much thinner and is vulnerable to total break-up in the summer over the next decade given the present trend. The Arctic has gotten warmer for whatever reason. An ice-free Arctic has been extremely rare over the past few million years.
—————————
Actual scientific observations say otherwise:
02 August 2011
Large variations in Arctic sea ice
Climate
For the last 10,000 years, summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has been far from constant. For several thousand years, there was much less sea ice in the Arctic Ocean – probably less than half of current amounts. This is indicated by new findings by The Centre for Geogenetics at the University of Copenhagen. The results of the study will be published in the journal Science.
http://news.ku.dk/all_news/2011/2010.8/arctic_sea_ice/
Ohhh, and the Ice-free Arctic Ocean.
I’ve consulted the one of our three cats. who – named Trinidad – is obviously an Arctic specialist.
She figures about 2120 [AD (or CE) – not a time PDT] then – the Arctic may become ice-free.
Or may not.
Goes with the territory. And cats do territory.
I now have a problem: if Trinny [Trinidad, though lovely, is too formal for a sweet kitten-cat] gets a Cambridge professorship, she’ll get the income [otherwise it’d be species-ism].
But I don’t think she gets a personal tax-free allowance . . . .
I must look into the details of a Phony [‘Tony’] B.Liar foundation.
I’m sure paying tax is optional for a cat.
A lot of interesting points in the comments, but this (from Ian W) is not one of them He does not realize that as a result of the support for the failed AGW hypothesis people have died – as you state, in UK in March 2013 alone 5000 people died of cold in energy poverty. Nick does not care about this, if he can win the academic argument.
No evidence was provided to demonstrate that Nick does not care about the deaths of others.
Donald K. Chilo says:
August 19, 2013 at 12:21 pm
We will see how this turns out. Exactly when it happens, nobody knows for sure but the ice has reached a critical point in the past few years where it is much thinner and is vulnerable to total break-up in the summer over the next decade given the present trend. The Arctic has gotten warmer for whatever reason. An ice-free Arctic has been extremely rare over the past few million years….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
OH what absolute BUPKUS go read my post HERE.
The temperature has DECLINE not just this summer but by 1-3°C overall in the second half of the Holocene and glaciers on average have been growing at an accelerating rate over the last 600 to 800 years. That is not hand waving that is direct quotes from papers where they got off their duffs and MEASURED stuff.
More buoys to watch, and nearly all show below freezing cold, and that the ice is not thinning much, and in some cases has thickened: http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/newdata.htm
RE: Gail Combs says:
August 19, 2013 at 10:21 am
Ouch, but I guess it knocked some sense in his head. Many come to picturesque New Hampshire, charmed and enchanted by the scenery, but not all that many stay. Winters can be brutal, especially because the thaws turn all to slush which then freezes to rock hard and treacherously slippery ice. As you and your husband know.
But at least you know about how hard it is to water livestock during a cold winter. I think you are right about needing to go outside and see the brutal side of nature. Some “authorities” on the Greenland Vikings like to sit in warm armchairs and pontificate about how they “failed to adapt.” What rubbish! They adapted for over four hundred years, and their final adaptation may well have been to move on to some other place.
It’s the sun by stupid is as stupid does. 😉
Caleb says:
August 19, 2013 at 2:52 pm
…. Winters can be brutal, especially because the thaws turn all to slush which then freezes to rock hard and treacherously slippery ice….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Oh, lord did you have to remind me of mud season and NH roads in the spring? At least the north sands/salts the roads. I grew up in northern New York in the 50’s before they did so and where you never saw the black top from October till March. That is the reason I bought chains when I moved to NC. We get snow occasionally and it becomes a real free for all. (And for those who wonder I have moved about 40 times and I never want to see a packing box again)
Global warming sounds a lot better then the frozen north. Why else do retirees head south?
Last winter, I was continually fascinated by the Svalbard hot spot. The temperature anomaly was bright all winter. This summer we learn [there] are active volcanoes in the area. Apparently not expected. Has anyone done even the roughest calculation how much heat those volcanoes might have dumped into the Arctic? Might that explain the unexpectedly rapid sea ice decline? Might a recovery be, in part, tied to that activity dieing down?
The Arctic just started gaining new ice in some areas from August 19 around 170 degrees West area.
If you watch DMI’s interactive satellite data and toggle the switch between 8/18 and 8/19, one can clearly see the new ice starting to form.
The ice extent north of Iceland is still losing a small amount of ice, but with the abnormally cold Arctic temps, it seems almost certain that the Arctic will start gaining ice much earlier than in past years
DMI’s Arctic temperatures suddenly spiked up a 1.5 C over the last couple days, but if it returns to -2C by the end of this week, we should start seeing a net gain by the end of next week.
OOPS… Here is the DMI interactive link:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/index.uk.php
dbstealy
You’ve posted April values for both hemispheres. Why April?
September is the usual month for minimum Arctic ice, and March is usually the maximum for Antarctic. These are better choices for loss and gain comparisons.
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Sep/N_09_plot.png
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Mar/S_03_plot.png
Arctic sea ice loss is 14% per decade for minimum extent, Antarctic sea ice gain is 3.9% for March maximum. Arctic sea ice loss is 3 times greater than Antarctic gain. This is reflected in the global trend (annual sea ice area), which has declined over the last 34 years (CT data).
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg
(Data here)
All my comments here have been about the data. Let’s play the ball, not the man.