The Week That Was: 2013-08-17 (August 17, 2013) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
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Quote of the Week: “When the climate models do not agree with the reality, then reality is not what’s false!” Fritz Vahrenholt [H/t No Tricks Zone – Seeking a Common Ground]
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Number of the Week: 0 + 0
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THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
IPCC: Reuters reported that a leak of the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) By the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which will be published in late September, will state that the IPCC are 95% sure that human activity, primarily burning of fossil fuels, are the main cause of warming since the 1950s.
The 1995 SPM asserted just over 50 confidence, the 2001 report asserted 66 percent confidence and the 2007 report asserted at least 90% confidence. . One should recall that the SPM is a politically negotiated document, and the science behind its assertions are often highly questionable. For example, the 2001 SPM featured the notorious hockey-stick, in which temperatures fell slowly over the last thousand years only to rise rapidly in the last century. The hockey-stick disappeared in the 2007 report, without a trace, and the 2007 SPM emphasized only the last half of the 20th century, disregarding climate history.
Recently, there have been numerous scientific reports questioning the values projected by the models the IPCC relies on, and the failure to validate these models. Yet, the IPCC marches on, expressing ever increasing certainty in its work, as others express significant uncertainty in its work.
One could attribute the progression of expressed certainty as the orderly progression of what can be called bureaucratic science – become more determined that the bureaucracy is right, and ignore data that contradicts it. How the IPCC justifies the increasing certainty, in the face of contradicting data, will make interesting reading. Please see links under Defending the Orthodoxy and, for a discussion of bureaucratic science, Seeking a Common Ground.
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Questioning Models: Hans von Storch, Director of the Institute for Coastal Research at Helmholtz Research Center in Germany, and others, have produced a somewhat technical discussion paper questioning the output of the computer models on which the IPCC relies for its pronouncements of global warming/climate change. Storch is not a climate skeptic. He believes that human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are or may cause Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW).
The paper states that there has been no surface warming for the fifteen years from 1998 to 2012 and that this stagnation is inconsistent with the model projections, even at the 2% confidence level, much less than at the 5% level, or a higher level.
The authors suggest three possible reasons for the inconsistency: 1) underestimation of internal natural climate variability over time periods of a decade or more; 2) influence of external forcing factors; and 3) overestimation of the model sensitivity to increasing atmospheric concentrations greenhouse gases, primarily CO2. The authors somewhat dismiss the first reason, stating it will have little long term impact on calculating CAGW.
Apparently, the authors consider that eventually all natural influence will be included in the models. Some, such as SEPP, may find the argument unconvincing, because it may take decades or centuries before all the natural influences are incorporated in the models. The Right Climate Stuff research team stated it would be better to create a valid model of natural influences, before trying to model the human influences.
The Storch team is to be thanked for producing the discussion paper. They believe the models can be improved. Please note that they did not state that they falsified the models, but others did. Please see links under Problems in the Orthodoxy and for a direct link to this valuable paper: http://www.academia.edu/4210419/Can_climate_models_explain_the_recent_stagnation_in_global_warming
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Best Available Evidence: On her web site, Judith Curry has a lengthy post reviewing what constitutes the best available evidence for human-caused climate change. The post discusses the problem of communicating science better, particularly for policy makers. It brings up a number of interesting points such as for complex problems, with large uncertainties, one cannot determine the best available evidence by objective criteria. A second point is that with large uncertainties the best available evidence may lead to bad decisions.
Unfortunately, by addressing climate change in general, her discussion avoids a central issue. Are human emissions of carbon dioxide causing unprecedented and dangerous global warming? To the question of what constitutes the best available evidence, the greenhouse warming takes place in the atmosphere and that is where we should see the best available evidence. The evidence simply is not there. Until that evidence is clearly evident, the rest is fluff.
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More Heat: The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) produced a study projecting that more parts of the world will suffer from extreme heat waves, which will quadruple by 2040. Of course, this garnered far greater press coverage than the discussion paper by Storch, et al., stating that the difference between model projections and observations is at a less than 2% confidence interval.
According to reports, the authors of the study claimed they used a suite of 29 models that they say accurately represent the historic, observed trend, giving them confidence the models’ ability to project the trend into the future. According to the abstract: “For the near-term (i.e., by 2040), the models predict a robust, several-fold increase in the frequency of such heat extremes, irrespective of the emission scenario.” Not only are projections from un-validated models not scientifically robust, but there is little or no evidence that the model projections are useful. Please see links Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
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The Greenhouse Effect: On their respective web sites Roy Spencer and Tim Ball take different approaches in questioning the analogy that the atmospheric greenhouse effect can be explained by physical greenhouses. Both conclude that the analogy is inadequate. Please see links under Questioning the Orthodoxy.
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Social Benefits of Carbon: A study published in The New Scientist states that the increase in carbon dioxide following the ice age, helped early farmers to select the more robust plants for agriculture. Also there is A review of a study showing the enhanced atmospheric CO2 promotes more efficient water use by plants. Please see links under Social Benefits of Carbon.
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Offshore Wind: It is difficult to obtain firm numbers on the costs of generating electricity from wind turbines located offshore. Two weeks ago, TWTW linked to an article in Der Speigel stating that in Germany offshore wind receives subsidies more than twice that of onshore (land based) wind. Yet investment in offshore wind is not continuing beyond a brief early spurt. This week, an article in Bloomberg states (according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance) the cost of offshore wind is about 2.7 times the cost of onshore wind.
Dong Energy, a Danish company with heavy wind investments is teaming with other companies and some universities to come up with a way to substantially decrease the costs of installing offshore wind. Also, it remains to be seen what the actual life span of offshore wind turbines will be in the corrosive salt conditions. Please see links under Questioning European Green, and Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind.
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Reliable v. Unreliable: Glenn Schleede presented an often overlooked detail when examining comparisons between the costs of wind and other forms of electricity generation. Given a particular unit of electricity, say kilowatt hour (KWh), what is the value of a reliable source of electricity as compared with an unreliable source? Modern civilization requires reliable electricity. What are the costs of frequent, unpredictable disruptions? These costs should be included in comparisons of costs such as the EIA levelized costs. They are not.
Instead of recognizing the high costs of unreliability, governments are subsidizing and mandating unreliable wind and solar. When they produce, wind and solar power can be sold at prices below those of traditional sources, such as fossil fuels. Europe is witnessing utilities not building or closing fossil fuel plants and nuclear plants because they are no long a viable investment. When these plants are shut, what will provide the necessary back-up to unreliable sources? In the end, the consumer will pay more. Please see links under Energy Issues – Non-US and Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind.
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Shifting attitudes: The discovery of the methods to extract oil and natural gas for dense shale are changing attitudes in Europe. Prime Minister of the UK, David Cameron, wrote in a popular newspaper requesting support of hydraulic fracturing for natural gas in England. Of course, this produced strong denunciations. But can the British government continue to heavily subsidize unreliable wind, if the possibility of inexpensive natural gas remains unexplored? Please see links under Questioning European Green and Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
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Green Jobs: The US General Accountability Office found that, under the 2009 stimulus bill, the US spent over $500 Million on training people for specialized green jobs only to discover that only a few such jobs exist. Most green jobs are ordinary jobs given a specialized political aura, such as sanitation workers and mass transit employees and require no special government programs for training. The stimulus bill was less than a smashing success, failing to reach any of the stated promises. Please see link under Green Jobs.
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Number of the Week: 0+0. The first 0 was selected from a pithy comment by Ross McKitrick as reported by WUWT: “Here’s the list of scientific institutions and societies that have issued statements agreeing with CAGW, and that surveyed their members to find out how many agreed with the statement prior to issuing it, and published the results of the survey:
“Anyone want to see the list again?”
The second 0 was for the number of people that showed up for Climate Action Day in Georgetown promoted by Organizing for Action, a follow-up organization from President Obama’s election campaign.
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ARTICLES:
For the numbered articles below please see this week’s TWTW at: www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.
1. Science Says So, Suckers!
Just because climate science involves physics doesn’t mean its conclusions are as certain as gravity.
By Jamie Whyte, WSJ, Aug 14, 2013
2. Canadian Oil-Sands Firm Struggles to Plug Leak
By Chester Dawson, WSJ, Aug 9, 2013
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323477604579003061473106206.html?mod=WSJ_Energy
[SEPP Comment: Problems with using high-pressure steam on site to heat the oil sands in order to extract the liquid.]
3. Energy Firm Makes Costly Fracking Bet—on Water
For Antero’s Planned Ohio River Pipeline, Payoff Hinges on Rainfall Patterns
By Russell Gold, WSJ, Aug 13, 2013
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323420604578652594214383364.html?mod=WSJ_Energy
[SEPP Comment: The volume of water use found at the bottom of the article is not particularly significant in Eastern US, but may be significant in the West and other semi-arid regions. Yet, even in the Eastern US, recycling should be encouraged.]
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Challenging the Orthodoxy
European Institute For Climate And Energy Calls Climate Protection “An Absurd Science”…Says Models Flawed
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 11, 2013
Current Wisdom: Even More Low Climate Sensitivity Estimates
By Patrick Michaels and Paul Knappenberger, CATO, Aug 14, 2013
http://www.cato.org/blog/current-wisdom-even-more-low-climate-sensitivity-estimates
Defending the Orthodoxy
Experts surer of manmade global warming but local predictions elusive
By Staff Writers, Reuters, Aug 16, 2013
http://www.trust.org/item/20130816133815-ao2wt/?source=hptop
[SEPP Comment: We are 95% certain humans are causing something we can no longer find in the real world. Great Propaganda Photo.]
IPCC chair Pachauri seeks clean-tech help in climate battle
The United Nations’ panel on climate change, the IPCC, is now drawing up a new report on global warming. The head of the panel provided a sneak preview of its findings on Monday in Joensuu.
By Staff Writers, Yle Uutiset, (Finnish Broadcasting Company) Aug 13, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://yle.fi/uutiset/ipcc_chair_pachauri_seeks_cleantech_help_in_climate_battle/6775177
Climate benefit for cutting soot, methane smaller than previous estimates
By Staff Writers, Richland WA (SPX), Aug 14, 2013
In his second term, Obama becomes bolder on the environment
By Juliet Eilperin, Washington Post, Aug 10, 2013
White House Climate Change Comments Show Obama’s Ideological Intolerance
Editorial, IBD, Aug 13, 2013
Warming Climate Pushes Plants Up the Mountain
By Daniel Stolte, Univ. Arizona News, Aug 14, 2013 [H/t WUWT]
http://uanews.org/story/warming-climate-pushes-plants-up-the-mountain
[SEPP Comment: Does cooling climate push them down? Of course, the issue is that they have not gone extinct over the past 2.6 million years of extreme climate variation caused by ice ages.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Carbon Dioxide: The Green Greenhouse Gas of Life (and ‘miracle molecule’)
By Paul Driessen, Master Resource, Aug 13, 2013
http://www.masterresource.org/2013/08/co2-gas-of-life/#more-27095
Does a Greenhouse Operate through the Greenhouse Effect?
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Aug 11, 2013
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/08/does-a-greenhouse-operate-through-the-greenhouse-effect/
A Greenhouse as Analogy For The Atmosphere Is Completely Wrong
By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Aug 12, 2013
http://drtimball.com/2013/a-greenhouse-as-analogy-for-the-atmosphere-is-completely-wrong/
Meteor Dust and My TV Reception
By Alan Caruba, Warning Signs, Aug 12, 2013
http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2013/08/meteor-dust-and-my-tv-reception.html
What the ‘year of living dangerously’ at nearly 400 ppm of CO2 in Earth’s atmosphere looks like
By Anthony Watts, Aug 10, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Debunking the headlines.]
Social Benefits of CO2
Ancient climate change picked the crops we eat today
By Sara Reardon, New Scientist, Aug 15, 2013
Impact of climate, population and CO2 on water resources
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc., Aug 13, 2013
Climate change may be speeding coast redwood, giant sequoia growth
Scientists find that since the 1970s, some California coast redwoods have grown at the fastest rate ever.
By Bettina Boxal, LA Times, Aug 14, 2013 [H/t WUWT]
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-redwoods-climate-20130814,0,3829911.story
[SEPP Comment: Enhanced atmospheric CO2 is more likely the dominant cause.]
Seasonal carbon dioxide range expanding as more is added to Earth’s atmosphere
Northern Hemisphere land-based ecosystems ‘taking deeper breaths,’ scientists find
By Staff NSF Press Release, Aug 8, 2013 [H/t WUWT]
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=128720&org=NSF
The global dance of carbon dioxide and spreading green flora
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 17, 2013
http://joannenova.com.au/2013/08/watch-as-co2-rises-and-falls-over-the-arctic-every-year/#more-29258
[SEPP Comment: Nice video of the seasonal variation of CO2 and greening. Too bad NASA could not resist the typical propaganda film of showing a power plant belching steam taken under special light or with special lenses.]
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Can climate models explain the recent stagnation in global warming?
By Hans von Storch et al., Institute for Coastal Research, No date
http://www.academia.edu/4210419/Can_climate_models_explain_the_recent_stagnation_in_global_warming
Von Storch: models are falsified
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Aug 12, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/8/12/von-storch-models-are-falsified.html
Seeking a Common Ground
Vahrenholt Thrashes Leading IPCC, Former NCAR Scientist In Hamburg Debate! “The Wound Of Climate Science”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 15, 2013
Attitudes to our environment
By Martin Livermore, Scientific Alliance, Aug 16, 2013
http://scientific-alliance.org/scientific-alliance-newsletter/attitudes-our-environment
[SEPP Comment: Many species in addition to man change the environment in which they live.]
Providing Evidence to Policy Makers: an Integration of Expertise and Politics
By Roger Pielke, Jr., Bridges, August 2013
[SEPP Comment: The obligations scientists take in testifying before Congress.]
The Problem with Apollo Analogies
Brief comments by Roger Pielke, Jr, His Blog, Aug 12, 2013
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2013/08/the-problem-with-apollo-analogies.html
[SEPP Comment: For using Apollo to justify a spending program to replace fossil fuels.]
So what is the best available scientific evidence, anyways?
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc., Aug 14, 2013
Climate Science & Sociology
By Johanna [No last name given], Climate Etc., Aug 11, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/08/11/climate-science-sociology/#more-12545
[SEPP Comment: A very long post discussing the politicization of climate science and the disadvantages of bureaucratic science.]
Cloud Cover and Climate Change
By Staff, SPPI & CO2 Science, Aug 13, 2013
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/cloud_cover_and_climate_change.html
Lowering Standards
Quote of the week – the Aye’s have it
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Aug 12, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/12/quote-of-the-week-the-ayes-have-it/
NOAA’s claim on El Reno tornado may not hold up
By Paul Homewood, WUWT, Aug 16, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/16/noaas-claim-on-el-reno-tornado-may-not-hold-up/
[SEPP Comment: When announcing new records, NOAA fails to clearly and explicitly state changes in its policies for reporting records, thereby misleading the public.]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Scientists look into Earth’s “Deep Time” to predict future effects of climate change
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Aug 14, 2013
Questioning European Green
Europe Pulls the Plug on Its Green Future
By Benny Peiser, The Australian, via GWPF, Aug 9, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/benny-peiser-europe-pulls-plug-green-future/
[SEPP Comment: Rejoice Europe!]
German Green Energy Bluster Running Out Of Wind
By Larry Bell, Forbes, Aug 13, 2013
http://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2013/08/13/german-green-energy-bluster-running-out-of-wind/
Cameron’s Fracking Plea
By Walter Russell Mead, Via Meadia, Aug 13, 2013
http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/08/13/camerons-fracking-plea/
Energy ‘volcano to erupt’ with 10 per cent price hikes
Millions of households are set to be hit with gas and electricity price hikes of as much as 10 per cent, it has been claimed.
By Steve Hawkes, Telegraph, UK, Aug 9, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
EU countries to cut renewable support further:
Editorial by Gerard Wynn, Reuters, Aug 14, 2013
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/14/column-wynn-renewable-eu-idUSL6N0GE1TJ20130814
Germany’s Energy Chaos: Government May have to Rescue Nuclear Power Plants
By Daniel Wetzel, Die Welt, Trans Phillip Mueller, GWPF, Aug 15, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/germanys-energy-chaos-government-rescue-nuclear-power-plants/
[SEPP Comment: The German dilemma: we have to save them in order to close them.]
Germans grow skeptical over shift to renewables
By Johanna Schmeller, Deutsche Welle, Aug 12, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.dw.de/germans-grow-skeptical-over-shift-to-renewables/a-17013961
[SEPP Comment: Energy density is discussed, a rarity for a newspaper.]
Letter from the Chairman of Balcombe Parish Council
By Alison Stevenson, Balcombe Parish Council Aug 12, 2013
http://balcombeparishcouncil.com/2013/08/12/letter-from-the-chairman-of-balcombe-parish-council/
[SEPP Comment: To the outsiders protesting drilling for natural gas and who pretend they represent the locals – you are not appreciated.]
Scots ‘face world’s biggest energy bills’ from wind power
By David Maddox, Scotsman, Aug 14, 2013 [H/t Wind Action]
Green Jobs
Audit finds bloated budget for green jobs training despite lack of open positions
By Perry Chiaramonte, Fox News, Aug 4, 2013 [H/t Wind Action]
Link to report: Employment and Training: Labor’s Green Jobs Efforts Highlight Challenges of Targeted Training Programs for Emerging Industries
By Staff Writers, GAO, June 2013
http://www.gao.gov/assets/660/655331.pdf
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Wearing out words
They’re changing the name of the global-warming scam again
Editorial, Washington Times, Aug 13, 2013 [H/t Climate Depot]
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/aug/13/wearing-out-words/
Ambivalent coverage of climate change’s ‘new normal’
Considering the importance of the information, the mainstream press provided surprisingly limited analysis
By Alexis Sobel Fitts, Columbia Journalism Review, Aug 12, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Sea levels have been rising for over 18,000 years since the maximum extent of the last major ice age, and will continue to do so until the onset of the next major ice age. Over the past 4000 years the rate of rise has slowed considerably. What is the new normal?]
Study questions nature’s ability to ‘self-correct’ climate change
By Staff Writers, Flagstaff AZ (SPX), Aug 12, 2013
While plants did contain more carbon when CO2 levels were increased, soil actually lost carbon due to microbial decomposition; both factors essentially balanced one another out.
[SEPP Comment: Avoids the issue: few skeptics claim that more vigorous plant growth will balance the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. They claim that an increase in concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere will cause more vigorous plant growth and benefit the environment.]
Headstone for an Apocalypse
By Peter Brannen, NYT, Aug 16, 2013
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/17/opinion/headstone-for-an-apocalypse.html?_r=1&
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Extreme heat waves to quadruple by 2040, study says
By John Roach, NBC News, Aug 14, 2013 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
Link to letter: Historic and future increase in the global land area affected by monthly heat extremes
By Dim Coumou and Alexander Robinson, Environmental Research Letters, Aug 14, 2013
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/3/034018
Rahmstorf Claims “New Generation” Of Climate Models Are Robust Because “They Can Predict The Past Very Well”!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 16, 2013
[SEPP Comment: See first link in this section.]
The Past is Getting Colder
By Brent Hargreaves, The End Is Nigh – Not!, Aug 10, 2013 [H/t Bishop Hill]
http://endisnighnot.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/the-past-is-getting-colder.html
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Murry Salby responds to the attacks on his record
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 11, 2013
http://joannenova.com.au/2013/08/murry-salby-responds-to-the-attacks-on-his-record/
[SEPP Comment: Is it his science or his conclusions that create the criticism?]
Models v. Observations
Climate model simulations of the AMO
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc., Aug 16, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/08/16/climate-model-simulations-of-the-amo/#more-12365
Measurement Issues
Distorted data? Feds close 600 weather stations amid criticism they’re situated to report warming
By Maxim Lott, Fox News, Aug 13, 2013 [H/t WUWT]
[SEPP Comment: One question is how many have temperature records going back at least 80 years?]
Changing Weather
UI researcher finds human activity muddies causes of Texas floods
By Staff Writers, Iowa City IA (SPX), Aug 12, 2013
[SEPP Comment: For thousands of years humans have been controlling the adverse effects of weather changes as well as they could.]
Changing Climate
Rapid cooling triggered Bronze-Age collapse and Greek Dark Age
By Robert Felix, Ice Age Now, May 10, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://iceagenow.info/2013/05/rapid-cooling-triggered-bronze-age-collapse-greek-dark-age/
Changing Seas
Why Did Sea Level Drop in 2010?
By Sid Perkins, Science Shots, Aug 14, 2013 [H/t Ken Capron]
http://news.sciencemag.org/earth/2013/08/scienceshot-why-did-sea-level-drop-2010
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
No need to worry about Greenland’s waterslides
By Tamsin Edwards, PLOS Blog, Aug 12, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://blogs.plos.org/models/no-need-to-worry-about-greenlands-waterslides/
Link to paper: Enhanced basal lubrication and the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise.
By S. Shannon, et al., PNAS, Aug 12, 2013
http://dbms.ilrt.bris.ac.uk/media/user/162431/Shannon_et_al_2013_PNAS.pdf
“This is the first attempt to study whether meltwater lubrication of Greenland’s waterslides is important to future sea level. We find it is not. Instead we should focus on understanding changes in melting and snowfall and (to a lesser extent) icebergs.”
Greenland ice sheet IS melting but much of the heating is coming from INSIDE the earth
Study suggests melting in an area is due to composition of Earth’s mantle
The IceGeoHeat team claims they produced more accurate forecasts by adding their new findings to earlier models on climate change
By Ellie Zolfagharifard, Mail Online, UK, Aug 12, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: States that currently sea levels are rising at a rate of about 30 cm, or 11 inches, per century. Greenland ice melt contributes accounts for 7 cm, or less than 3 inches, per century. Will some declare that geothermal heating of the ice is caused by carbon dioxide?]
Melting water’s lubricating effect on glaciers has only ‘minor’ role in future sea-level rise
By Staff Writers, Bristol, UK (SPX), Aug 14, 2013
In the Arctic, nearby soot may be a larger forcing than CO2
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Aug 13, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/13/in-the-arctic-nearby-soot-may-be-a-larger-forcing-than-co2/
Link to paper: Arctic surface temperature change to emissions of black carbon within Arctic or midlatitudes
By Sand, et al., Journal of Geophysical Research, Jul 30, 2013
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50613/abstract
Study documents early warming of West Antarctica at end of last ice age
By Ed Brook, Oregon State U, Aug 14, 2013 [H/t WUWT]
Unable to find link to the paper
[SEPP Comment: Based on one ice core, a warming of the west Antarctic triggered a warming of Southern Oceans that released the CO2 necessary to end the last ice age?]
Acidic Waters
Baby corals pass the acid test
By Staff Writers, Brisbane, Australia (SPX), Aug 15, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Baby_corals_pass_the_acid_test_999.html
Link to paper: Near-future reductions in pH will have no consistent ecological effects on the early life-history stages of reef corals
By Chia-Miin Chua, et al., Marine Ecology, Jul 12, 2013
http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v486/p143-151/
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
GM crops don’t kill kids; opposing them does
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Aug 12, 2013
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/gm-crops-don’t-kill-kids-opposing-them-does.aspx
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by NIPCC
For a full list of articles see www.NIPCCreport.org
Deep Cyclones Over Central Europe: Increasing or Decreasing?
Reference: Bielec-Bakowska, Z. and Piotrowicz, K. 2013. Long-term occurrence, variability and tracks of deep cyclones over Krakow (Central Europe) during the period 1900-2010. International Journal of Climatology 33: 677-689.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/aug/13aug2013a1.html
[SEPP Comment: 110 year history shows no significant change in air pressures measured in Krakow, Poland indicating no increase in frequency and intensity of violent storms.]
Breeding Cultivars of Rice for a CO2-Enriched and Warmer World
Reference: Shimono, H. and Okada, M. 2013. Plasticity of rice tiller production is related to genotypic variation in the biomass response to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and low temperatures during vegetative growth. Environmental and Experimental Botany 87: 227-234.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/aug/13aug2013a2.html
[SEPP Comment: More CO2 and warmth yields more rice.]
To the Brink of Extinction … and Back
Reference: Gilmour, J.P., Smith, L.D., Heyward, A.J., Baird, A.H. and Pratchett, M.S. 2013. Recovery of an isolated coral reef system following severe disturbance. Science 340: 69-71.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/aug/13aug2013a4.html
[SEPP Comment: The negative human influence on corals is significant, but it is not from CO2.]
Last Millennium Climate Simulations Still Falling Short of Reality
Reference: Landrum, L., Otto-Bliesner, B.L., Wahl, E.R., Conley, A., Lawrence, P.J., Rosenbloom, N. and Teng, H. 2013. Last millennium climate and its variability in CCSM4. Journal of Climate 26: 1085-1111.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/aug/14aug2013a2.html
Litigation Issues
Court: Obama broke law with nuke delay
By Zack Colman, The Hill, Aug 13, 2013
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Scathing MIT Paper Blasts Obama’s Climate Models
By Staff Writer, IER, Aug 12, 2013 http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2013/08/12/scathing-mit-paper-blasts-obamas-climate-models/
Link to paper: Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell US
By Robert S. Pindyck, National Bureau of Economic Research, July 2013
http://web.mit.edu/rpindyck/www/Papers/Climate-Change-Policy-What-Do-the-Models-Tell-Us.pdf
[SEPP Comment: Does not address climate models, but addresses the models used by the administration to estimate the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC), which is a form of a carbon tax not legislated.]
‘Most transparent administration ever’ keeps carbon tax plans secret
By Brian McNicoll, Washington Examiner, Aug 9, 2013
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
FACT: Since the Renewable Fuel Standard went into effect, corn, not oil, has driven food prices with a near perfect correlation
By Mark Perry, AEIdeas, Aug 10, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Wind farms paid £30 million a year to stand idle because the grid can’t cope with all the energy they produce
By Nick McDermott, Mail Online, UK, Aug 10, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
It’s Time to Restore EPA’s Original Purpose
By Jay Lehr, Heartland, Aug 14, 2013
http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2013/08/14/its-time-restore-epas-original-purpose
Federal Judge: EPA May Have Skirted FOIA Law with Secret Emails
Judge orders EPA to submit to discovery in lawsuit
By CJ Claramella, Washington Free Beacon, Aug 15, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://freebeacon.com/federal-judge-epa-may-have-skirted-foia-law-with-secret-emails/
BP sues EPA over federal contract ban
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Aug 13, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/316739-bp-sues-epa-to-lift-federal-contracting-suspension
Energy Issues – Non-US
The Decline of Renewable Energy
By Bjørn Lomborg, Project Syndicate, Aug 14, 2013
Since 1990, wind-generated power has grown 26% per year and solar a phenomenal 48%. But the growth has been from almost nothing to slightly more than almost nothing.
United States and China Oil Consumption and Imports: A Tale of Two Very Different Countries
By Michael Economides, Omoboia Ajao and Hoagie Merry, Energy Tribune, Aug 16, 2013
http://www.energytribune.com/78800/united-states-china-oil-consumption-imports#sthash.LxLBZnPf.dpbs
RWE to Close 3.1 GW of Conventional Generation Across Europe on Profit Woes
By Sonal Patel, Power Magazine, Aug 15, 2013
[SEPP Comment: What facilities will provide the necessary back-up for solar and wind?]
Energy Issues — US
Shut Up and Drill: Why Fracking Could End the Age of Gas Price Spikes
Drivers of the world, rejoice: The technology behind the natural gas revolution could give us a more flexible and dependable source of gasoline
By Karl Smith, The Atlantic, Aug 8, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Addresses gasoline (petrol) spikes.]
Washington’s Control of Energy
Energy Manipulation
Walter E. Williams, Townhall, Aug 14, 2013
http://townhall.com/columnists/walterewilliams/2013/08/14/energy-manipulation-n1662249/page/full
We Win and They Lose
By Marita Noon, Energy Tribune, Aug 14, 2013
http://www.energytribune.com/78790/we-win-and-they-lose#sthash.60Ux4Sdb.dpbs
White House warns of rising threat to power grid from ‘extreme weather’
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Aug 12, 2013
Obama’s Keystone pipe blockage
U.S. energy dependency is counter-progressive
By Lucian Pugliaresi, Washington Times, Aug 13, 2013
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/aug/13/pugliaresi-obamas-keystone-pipe-blockage/print/
Oil-Sands Industry Turns to Algae to Appease Obama
By Jeremy van Loo, Bloomberg, Aug 12, 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-12/oil-sands-industry-turns-to-algae-to-appease-obama.html
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
We cannot afford to miss out on shale gas
Safe fracking will cut energy bills and create wealth without ruining precious countryside, writes David Cameron
By David Cameron, Prime Minister of UK, Telegraph, UK, Aug 11, 2013
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10236664/We-cannot-afford-to-miss-out-on-shale-gas.html
Shale is fuelling a global revolution
The International Energy Authority has declared that, with several OPEC members struggling to maintain production due to unrest and infrastructure problems, North America’s shale boom was insulating the world from steep oil price spikes.
Editorial, Telegraph, UK, Aug 9, 2013
Natural Gas Vehicle Update
By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Aug 13, 2013
http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2013/08/13/natural-gas-vehicle-update-2/
[SEPP Comment: The future success outlined in the article does not need financial assistance from government, but does need regulator restraint by government. In the map, the wide brown is the massive volume of coal going by rail from, principally, Wyoming to the Mid-West. The locals joke they are shipping Wyoming to the east.]
The five myths about fracking
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Aug 16,2013
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-five-myths-about-fracking-(1).aspx
How Anti-Fracking Activists Deny Science on Air Emissions
By Steve Everley, Energy Collective, Aug 13, 2013 [H/t Bishop Hill]
Markey warns of security threat from imports of Yemen natural gas
By Zack Colman, The Hill, Aug 12, 2013
[SEPP Comment: He opposes exporting of natural gas because it will promote importing of gas from Yemen. It costs about $6.00 per 1000 cubic feet to transport the gas overseas, in each direction! Why import it if it is availed domestically?]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Toxicologist says NAS panel ‘misled the world’ when adopting radiation exposure guidelines
By Staff Writers, Amherst MA (SPX), Aug 15, 2013 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
Links to papers: How the US National Academy of Sciences misled the world community on cancer risk assessment: new findings challenge historical foundations of the linear dose response
By Edward Calabrese, Archives of Toxicology, August 2013
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00204-013-1105-6
Origin of the linearity no threshold (LNT) dose–response concept
By Edward Calabrese, Archives of Toxicology, July 2013
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00204-013-1104-7
Fukushima operator pumps out toxic groundwater
By Staff Writers, Tokyo (AFP), Aug 10, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Fukushima_operator_pumps_out_toxic_groundwater_999.html
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]
State Has No Authority to Shutter Vermont Yankee Reactor, Federal Court Rules
By Sonal Patel, Power News, Aug 16, 2013
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
DOE Misdirection: 8/6/13 Press Release & Report on Wind Energy
By Glenn Schleede, Master Resource, Aug 12, 2013
http://www.masterresource.org/2013/08/misleading-doe-86-13-press-release-wind/#more-27080
European Offshore Wind: Germany Points To Possible Trouble On The Horizon
By Peter Kelly-Detwiler, Forbes, Aug 8, 2013 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
Dong Energy Spearheads Offshore Wind Cost-Cutting Drive
By Alex Morales, Bloomberg, Aug 8, 2013 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
National Audit Office Is Urged to Investigate Soaring Green Energy Levies
By Tim Webb, The Times, via GWPF, Aug 13, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/national-audit-office-urged-investigate-soaring-green-energy-levies/
Price of Wind Energy in the United States Is Near an All-Time Low
By Staff Writers, Berkeley CA (SPX), Aug 12, 2013
Link to report: 2012 Wind Technologies Market Report
By Ryan Wiser, et al. Department of Energy,
http://emp.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/lbnl-6356e.pdf
[SEPP Comment: The prices of turbines do not reflect the costs of subprime electricity to the consumer, or the costs of subsidies.]
Plans to build more wind farms are ‘deluded’, L&G boss warns the government
By James Salmon, Mail Online, UK, Aug 9, 2013
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-2385991/Plans-build-wind-farms-deluded.html
[SEPP Comment: The UK government is trying to persuade insurance companies to “invest” in wind farm; this company will have none of it.]
Solar Takes Some Hits
By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Aug 16, 2013
http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2013/08/16/solar-takes-some-hits/
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Government-Gamed Markets and Subsidies Give Tesla Another ‘Profitable’ Quarter
By Paul Chesser, NLPC, Aug 12, 2013
Health, Energy, and Climate
Ignoring the Ignorant
By Henry Miller, Project Syndicate, Aug 16, 2013
Oh Mann!
New paper finds tree-ring proxy temperature data is ‘seriously compromised’
By Staff, The Hockey Schtick, Aug 15, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/new-paper-finds-tree-ring-proxy.html
Link to paper: A likelihood perspective on tree-ring standardization: eliminating modern sample bias
By J. Cecile, C. Pagnutti, and M. Anand, Climate of the Past, No Date
http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/9/4499/2013/cpd-9-4499-2013.html
Environmental Industry
Pestered By Mosquitos And Tics Ticking You Off A Mite? Perhaps Thank The Green War On DDT
By Larry Bell, Forbes, Aug 11, 2013
[SEPP Comment: The green war on human health.]
Environmentalists Attack Reuters Journalist for Thought-crime of Doubting Global Warming
By Matthew Vadum, NewsBusters, Aug 3, 2013 [H/t WUWT]
Other Scientific News
Deep Earth heat surprise
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Aug 13, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Deep_Earth_heat_surprise_999.html
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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
OFA Gets Zero Attendance for Climate Change Rally
By Staff, Washington Free Beacon, Aug 13, 2013
http://freebeacon.com/ofa-gets-zero-attendance-for-climate-change-rally/
Even nuclear weapons are going green
By John Upton, Grist, Aug 13, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://grist.org/news/even-nuclear-weapons-are-going-green/
The project is part of a broader campaign to make the nation’s nuclear weapons system more eco-friendly.
Berlin’s Wildly Fantastic 1,400-Foot-High, Hydra-Headed Windmill
By John Metcalfe, Atlantic, Aug 14, 2013 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
[SEPP Comment: From the past! Our future?]
###################################################
“Warming Climate Pushes Plants Up the Mountain”
At first I thought the title of the article was about moving electrical power plants to higher ground to get them away from man made rising sea levels.
Well!
After seventeen years without any increase in GMT and 1/4 of all CO2 “emissions” from human source since 1750 is released into the atmosphere during the same period, The IPCC then increases their certainty that humans caused the global warming from 90 to 95%.
Well … the IPCC doesn’t need any help from skeptics to prove it to be not only to be wrong but also totally idiotic … do they?
Logic is a rare thing within “climate science”! I wonder if hole science will survive the kidnapping by green loons. All the major science organisations has gone “All in ” to support the IPCC statements and guesswork and their reputation and trust is going down together with the IPCC and its a total disaster with all passengers on board killed or seriously injured.
Special thanks to P Nurse on Loyal Society. No one has so rapidly totally torpedoed the reputation of science and his own organisation. With friends like Nurse science doesn’t need any enimies.
“…increase in carbon dioxide following the ice age, helped early farmers to select the more robust plants for agriculture.”
So CO2 rose after temperatures rose, then. Progress. Also, this is a ridiculous statement. Surely after the ice age, the only plants there were in temperate lands where agriculture began (so-called “the fertile crescent”) were indeed robust plants already.
SEPP says above:
The Greenhouse Effect: On their respective web sites Roy Spencer and Tim Ball take different approaches in questioning the analogy that the atmospheric greenhouse effect can be explained by physical greenhouses. Both conclude that the analogy is inadequate.
But in the blog post they reference, Roy Spencer concludes:
If anyone is aware of studies done on the energy budget of greenhouses (of the agricultural kind), I would appreciate a reference or two. But until someone finds a serious error in the above analysis, I’d say we might need to admit that the “greenhouse effect” is pretty accurately named.
Interesting post from Lubos Motl regarding the significance of the 95% certainty that humans are the main cause of warming since the 1950s at his blog, The Reference Frame, http://motls.blogspot.com/2013/08/95-percent-confidence-in-hep-vs-ipcc.html. He’s a physicist who’s main interest is
He makes the case that it is a meaningless statement. He points out that the phrase ‘main cause’ means that humans are not the cause of even the majority of the warming (.5C since 1950), so humans are responsible (according to the IPCC) for at most .25C warming in the last 60 years, most likely less than that.
He makes two other points that are significant:
1) “First of all, the figure 95% isn’t really calculated in any way.” Meaning it is not calculated in the manner that normal science does it, from experimental data. The IPCC appears to have used a ‘voting’ methodology among some subset of scientists to establish the 95% confidence level, i. e., its another example of ‘consensus science’.
2) “Even if the figure 95% were credible, it’s just painfully low.”
Good read, well worth the time. I do fear that the media will not examine the proclamation to any great depth and will, instead, go with the ‘We’re all going to die’ approach.
Toxicologist says NAS panel ‘misled the world’ when adopting radiation exposure guidelines
http://www.spacemart.com/reports/Toxicologist_says_NAS_panel_misled_the_world_when_adopting_radiation_exposure_guidelines_999.html
Big story this, if it is true.
The safe threshold idea is obviously correct (analogy with vaccines, springs to mind) but the implications if it is accepted are huge.
M Courtney says:
August 19, 2013 at 5:42 am
“Big story this, if it is true.
The safe threshold idea is obviously correct (analogy with vaccines, springs to mind) but the implications if it is accepted are huge.”
Interesting. It’s been known for ages that repair enzymes repair most damages to DNA; exploiting redundancy due to double strand and sparse coding of the DNA. So it’s obvious that the response must be nonlinear (see error correcting codes); as the system is digital in nature.
I had so much fun scaring all kinds of people about carcinogens. All these years.
Soot: manmade, meteor dust 3000tpy, volcanic dust: Eyafjallajokull in Iceland emitted 1/4 km^3 of dust in 2010 that disrupted air traffic across Europe, fell on the southern 5th of Greenland and in NE Canada. What are the proportions from the sources. I suspect that the beautiful melt pond with black stuff shown on WUWT
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/13/in-the-arctic-nearby-soot-may-be-a-larger-forcing-than-co2/
is largely from the “jokull”. The pond probably drains a fair area of ice around it. Has any scientist thought to collect and analyze this stuff? I thought not.
“Berlin’s Wildly Fantastic 1,400-Foot-High, Hydra-Headed Windmill”
Ah, the good old Reichskraftturm.
DirkH says:
August 19, 2013 at 6:51 am
The Nazis’ projected windmills:
http://www.zeit.de/2012/06/Windkraft/seite-1
From top of page 2:
“But as a reserve against coal crises and energy hunger the technique was further explored. Even the Nazis showed interest. In their fondness for everything gigantomaniac, the plans of the Berlin-dwelling inventor from Baden Hermann Honnef especially fascinated them. The Voelkischer Beobachter (Nazi newspaper) reported in February 1932 Honnef’s vision of a “gigantic project the realization of which will bring about a complete transformation of our economic conditions”. Honnef warned of “exhaustion of the coal deposits”, so he wanted to heat fields with wind power to allow farmers additional harvests.
Had Honnef’s windmills long been adopted, he would have sought the beneficial higher air layers. His mighty power plants would be at the heart of the cities and unite several wind turbines, each 60 meters in diameter on a 250 meter high tower, “including restoration mode”. With missionary zeal Honnef advertised a “national wholesale supply” of electricity by wind power. Although Hitler was interested in Honnef’s plans, that kingdom of power towers in Hamburg and Berlin remains only on paper.
Now this is my idea of a Country Cadillac, with a low cost per mile.
http://m.prnewswire.com/news-releases/chrysler-group-llc-to-offer-more-than-100-mopar-accessories-for-2014-jeep-grand-cherokee-217090051.html
… For 2014, Grand Cherokee offers a new EcoDiesel engine with best-in-class 30 miles per gallon (mpg) highway and an unmatched driving range of more than 730 miles. A new eight-speed transmission drives all Grand Cherokee engines, including the 3.6-liter Pentastar V-6 – achieving up to 25 mpg and more than 600 miles driving range – and the 5.7-liter V-8, now achieving up to 22 mpg. …
And an F-350 dually diesel 4×4 or Super Duty for the serious pulling stuff. Plus you can push or pull eighteen wheelers around. Instead of being trapped in a dinky little car underneath one that didn’t see you.
milodonharlani says:
August 19, 2013 at 7:45 am
“The Nazis’ projected windmills:
http://www.zeit.de/2012/06/Windkraft/seite-1
”
Ah, Die Zeit; good old socialist rag. Completely ignores the first 1 MW wind turbine built in 1941 in Vermont.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smith-Putnam_wind_turbine
It would be a bit painful to show the ecologist readers how slow the progress since then really was, wouldn’t it.
So let’s see if I’ve got this right…
The longer the period for which every major temperature database shows zero statistically significant warming, the greater the certainty that mankind is responsible for the aforesaid warming, is that correct?
And on the basis of this, we are expected to pay ever-increasing “Green” surcharges for our energy, close down our industries, expect the most vulnerable members of our society do decide whether they prefer to die of hypothermia or malnutrition, elevate the cost of the staple diet of the Third World by turning grain into motor fuel, cut down rain forests to grow palm oil and generally reverse all the progress that has taken place since the Industrial Revolution?
Quem deus vult perdere, prius dementat.
DirkH says:
August 19, 2013 at 9:42 am
Sehr traurig, bestimmt!
Dr. William Happer sent me a link to a recent essay by “Pointman,” one of the heroes who helped release the Climategate e-mails. Devastating. Puts der Fuehrer and his satraps and all the other greenieloonies in their place.
http://thepointman.wordpress.com/2013/08/16/know-your-enemy-the-green-politician/#comment-6068
AFAIK, a 2% confidence level is better than a 5% level. It means the results could have occurred by chance that many times. Higher is worse. Actually, anything over 0. 1% is soft, squishy pseudo-science.