A grand experiment is being conducted in the Arctic this year that may not only falsify a prediction made in 2007, but may also further distance a connection between Arctic air temperature and sea ice decline.
You may have noticed the countdown widget at the top of the right sidebar. I’ve been waiting for this event all summer, and now that we are just over a month away from the Autumnal Equinox at September 22, at 20:44 UTC., (4:44PM EDT) signifying the end of summer in the Northern Hemisphere, this seemed like a good time to start the countdown. If there is still significant ice (1 million square kilometers or more as defined by Zwally, see below) in place then, we can consider that this claim by Maslowski in 2007 to be falsified:
Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
What is most interesting though, is that Arctic temperatures seem to be in early decline, ahead of schedule by about 30 days compared to last year’s record melt:
Figure 1A: Overlay of temperature plots for 2012 and 2013 from the Danish Meteorological Institute.
Note that in Figure 1A, for 2013 the temperature has fallen below that which is needed to freeze seawater (approximately -1.8°C according to Peter Wadhams) at 271°K (-2.15°C). It is also approximmately 30 days ahead of the date that the temperature fell to the same value last year, and so far, the current situation with early colder temperature seems to be unique in the DMI temperature record back to 1958. However, it is worth noting that DMI has a caveat not to take the actual temperatures too literally.
…since the model is gridded in a regular 0.5 degree grid, the mean temperature values are strongly biased towards the temperature in the most northern part of the Arctic! Therefore, do NOT use this measure as an actual physical mean temperature of the arctic. The ‘plus 80 North mean temperature’graphs can be used for comparing one year to an other.
As if on cue for that caveat, shortly after I prepared figure 1A, DMI updated their plot to show a bit of a rebound:
Figure 1B DMI plot for today.
But there are other indications, for example this plot from NOAA ESRL, showing air temperatures well below freezing in the region:
Figure 2: Surface air temperatures in C Source: NOAA ESRL – Click the pic to view at sourceAnd, extent this year is ahead of extent for this time last year and within the standard deviation range (grey shading):
Figure 3: Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) – Centre for Ocean and Ice – Click the pic to view at sourceAfter a new record low in Arctic sea ice extent in 2012, the phrase “Nature abhors a vaccum” comes to mind as indicators suggest this melt season may end earlier than usual. The earliest that a turn in Arctic melt season was recorded in the satellite record was on September 2nd, 1987. With 14 days to go, will we see an earlier turn?
If we do, it might suggest (as many believe) that sea ice melt is directly tied to air temperature and the effects of increased CO2 on air temperature via the polar amplification we are often told about where the Arctic is the fastest warming place in the world.
Figure 4: The map above shows global temperature anomalies for 2000 to 2009. It does not depict absolute temperature, but rather how much warmer or colder a region is compared to the norm for that region from 1951 to 1980. Global temperatures from 2000–2009 were on average about 0.6°C higher than they were from 1951–1980. The Arctic, however, was about 2°C warmer. Based on GISS surface temperature analysis data including ship and buoy data from the Hadley Centre.
Image Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_amplification
If the melt continues, and turns around the normal time, which is usually +/- 5 days of the Autumnal Equinox on September 22nd, then we can assume other forcings are dominant this year, such as ocean currents and cycles like the AMO, winds, and ocean temperature below the sea ice. There’s also the unanswered question of the effects of black carbon soot.
If in spite of the early drop in temperatures, the Arctic sea ice extent ice drops below 1 million square kilometers, as NASA’s Jay Zwally famously predicted (with an assist from AP’s Seth Borenstein): “…the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012″ then most certainly all bets are off.
But if we see an early turn, it will falsify Maslowski’s and Zwally’s forecasts. Also, if the melt marches on despite the colder temperatures, it will force a reconsideration of what is really driving Arctic melt patterns.
Interestingly, the final ARCUS sea ice forecast has been published on August 16th,and the ranges of predictions are quite broad, spanning 2.2 million square kilometers from the most optimistic NOAA’s Msadek et al. at 5.8 msq/km to the perennially gloomy “Neven” whose Artic Sea Ice blog poll predicts 3.6 msq/km.
See http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2013/august
They write:
The Sea Ice Outlook organizers decided, with input from contributors and readers, to skip an August report this year in favor of a more thorough post-season report.
However, we provided this webpage to post and share individual contributors¹ August outlooks; the individual outlooks are below.
Since ARCUS didn’t plot them, I’ve plotted all the participant forecasts below.
Figure 5: plot of September Arctic Sea Ice Extent Mean forecasts submitted to ARCUS in August 2013.
Interestingly, I discovered that Robert Grumbine has participated in two forecasts (Wu and Wang) as a co-author, each with a different prediction, so that seems rather odd to me.
WUWT’s value is based on a weighted calculation of the top five vote getters in our poll here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/11/sea-ice-news-volume-4-3-2013-sea-ice-forecast-contest/
The most popular value picked by WUWT readers was 5.0 msq/km 8.9% (94 votes), though it wasn’t a runaway vote, hence I opted for a weighted average of the top 5 vote getters.
Most importantly, none of the ARCUS forecasts participants suggested an ice-free Arctic, which is bad news for Maslowski’s prediction.
No matter what happens, we live in interesting times.
As always the WUWT Sea Ice reference page has interesting plots of data at a glance: http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/
UPDATE: Commenter “jimbo” adds in comments –
Here is a compilation of ice-free Arctic Ocean / North Pole predictions / projections from scientists for the past, present and future.
Xinhua News Agency – 1 March 2008
“If Norway’s average temperature this year equals that in 2007, the ice cap in the Arctic will all melt away, which is highly possible judging from current conditions,” Orheim said.
[Dr. Olav Orheim – Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat]
__________________
Canada.com – 16 November 2007
“According to these models, there will be no sea ice left in the summer in the Arctic Ocean somewhere between 2010 and 2015.
“And it’s probably going to happen even faster than that,” said Fortier,””
[Professor Louis Fortier – Université Laval, Director ArcticNet]
__________________
National Geographic – 12 December 2007
“NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.” ”
[Dr. Jay Zwally – NASA]
__________________
BBC – 12 December 2007
“Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,”…….”So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”
[Professor Wieslaw Maslowski]
__________________
Independent – 27 June 2008
Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer
“…..It is quite likely that the North Pole will be exposed this summer – it’s not happened before,” Professor Wadhams said.”
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]
__________________
Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
Vol. 40: 625-654 – May 2012
The Future of Arctic Sea Ice
“…..one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover…..”
[Professor Wieslaw Maslowski]
__________________
Yale Environment360 – 30 August 2012
“If this rate of melting [in 2012] is sustained in 2013, we are staring down the barrel and looking at a summer Arctic which is potentially free of sea ice within this decade,”
[Dr. Mark Drinkwater]
__________________
Guardian – 17 September 2012
“This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates“.
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]
__________________
Sierra Club – March 23, 2013
“For the record—I do not think that any sea ice will survive this summer. An event unprecedented in human history is today, this very moment, transpiring in the Arctic Ocean….”
[Paul Beckwith – PhD student paleoclimatology and climatology – part-time professor]
__________________
Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013
“It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,”
[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]
__________________
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
RE: SAMURAI,
That is a cool link. (pun) It will be very valuable over the next three weeks.
Interesting bits of Danish appear from time to time, as I play with the frame-forward and frame-backward buttons, but that just makes it all the more interesting.
Thank you.
RE: barry says:
August 19, 2013 at 6:04 pm
Arctic sea-ice loss maximum occurs at 80 degrees latitude, whilst Antarctic sea-ice gain maximum gain occurs at 60 degrees latitude.
Think there might be a wee bit of difference in Albedo?
Arctic sea-ice loss maximum occurs when the sun is low and sinking below the horizon. Antarctic sea-ice gain maximum occurs when the sun is high and getting higher.
Think there might be a wee bit of difference in Albedo?
Seeing your comparison in a different light? (pun)
Hint: Apples and Oranges.
Caleb, when you introduce albedo into the discussion between dbstealy and I, in which we disagree on relative gain/loss of sea ice in the two hemispheres, you aren’t even comparing fruit anymore. Apples and cucumbers.
If you could explicitly respond to what we were talking about I would then be inclined to focus on your area of interest. But not until then. Conversations get nowhere if points are abandoned when someone chimes in with a different topic.
Barry saysw…”Arctic sea ice loss is 14% per decade for minimum extent, Antarctic sea ice gain is 3.9% for March maximum. Arctic sea ice loss is 3 times greater than Antarctic gain. This is reflected in the global trend (annual sea ice area), which has declined over the last 34 years (CT data).”
Percentages can certainly be misleading. A 4 percent gain in Antarctic maximum equalls how many sq K? A 14 percent loss of arctic minimum equalls how many sq K?
QUESTION: At what point would it not be impolite to point out to Beckwith that, based on the Data and his predictions, he appears not to know very much about Arctic Climate and has been talking out of his Ass?
I don’t want to ‘Jump the Gun’.
David, Arctic and Antarctic sea ice data is available here.
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/
Over the satellite record Antarctic sea ice maximum has gained about 630,000 sq/km while Arctic sea ice minimum has declined by about 3,060,000 sq/km (extent values). By that metric, Arctic sea ice has declined nearly 5 times as much as Antarctic has gained. I prefer the more conservative percentage estimates.
But don’t take my word for it. Run a linear regression with the data (to avoid emphasising interannual variability over the long-term trend) and see for yourself.
Annual Antarctic maxima (March)
Annual Arctic minima (September)
Or you can look at annual sea ice (area) for both hemispheres, where the linear trend in global decline is about 2,000,000 sq/km over the satellite record. This is for total sea ice (daily records), not just maximum and minimum months.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008
Dang, all this time I’ve been referring to March as Antarctic maximum when it is the minimum. Hangover from a different conversation elsewhere. I’ll clean that up now and apoligise for the confusion.
Antarctic maximum is the same month (usually) as Arctic minimum – September. So the values for Antarctic maximum gain over the satellite period are:
Total increase over satellite period determined by linear regression.
500,000 sq/km
Total increase in terms of percentage (extent):
3.15%
As these increases are a bit less than I mistakenly reported, it reinforces, rather than undermines the notion that Antarctic summertime gain is somehow equivalent to Arctic summertime loss.
barry says: August 19, 2013 at 6:04 pm
dbstealy
“You’ve posted April values for both hemispheres. Why April?”
Yes, it’s a cherry pick. Each hemisphere trend is greatest in months near the minimum. Here are trends for each month of the year in %/decade. Feb-May, SH slightly outweighs NH. Otherwise…
N S
Jan -3.210 2.586
Feb -2.911 3.682
Mar -2.512 3.969
Apr -2.347 2.671
May -2.238 2.245
Jun -3.577 1.389
Jul -7.119 1.001
Aug -10.178 0.608
Sep -13.013 0.878
Oct -7.058 0.925
Nov -4.747 0.575
Dec -3.457 1.841
Caleb said @ur momisugly August 19, 2013 at 2:52 pm
Somehow I don’t think the archaeologists who managed to find all of 4 fishbones in Greenland Viking middens and many thousands in Inuit middens were armchair theorists. While it’s a certainty that many moved, we don’t know where to. It’s also a certainty that there would have been considerable pressure to leave wherever they were living before they came to sunny Greenland! Maybe they moved to America and were assimilated by the Amerindians.
Sad to say, the Viking Greenlanders’ final adaptation was to die out as evidenced by their remains still frozen in the icy ground. Their stature declined over the few centuries of occupation and the last few were definitely malnourished. This was due not only to dietary preference and a deteriorating climate, but also the cessation of the walrus ivory trade once the African elephant ivory trade resumed. Interesting paper on midden analyses here:
http://www.archeurope.com/_texts/00035.pdf
barry,
Enough with the alarmist spin. Global ice cover is just about at its average for the entire satellite record. Actually, it’s slightly higher than average [the lower red line].
Nothing either unusual or unprecedented is happening. All you are observing is natural climate variability. So stop it, please. You’re just scaring yourself. The rest of us know better.
No need to worry about ice melt affecting sea levels, Australia’s big wet in 2010/2011 reversed it.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/how-australias-big-wet-befuddled-scientists-20130820-2s8k5.html
When comparing the increase/decline charts, keep in mind that the Antarctic has about ten times more ice than the Arctic:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.antarctic.png
I really don’t see why the alarmist cult is so fixated on polar ice. It proves nothing except that there is natural variability at work. It has zero to do with the “carbon” scare.
I suppose it gives the wild-eyed climate alarmists something to do. But it really has nothing to do with AGW. They lost that debate long ago. Now they’re only arguing to protect their precious egos. Sad. Admitting they have a problem is the first step on the road to recovery…
dbstealey said @ur momisugly August 20, 2013 at 12:54 am
It’s historic; ever hear of polar amplification? It’s why they fixate on the Arctic — it kinda sorta follows the narrative. The Antarctic of course has been misbehaving from the get go by not warming at all. I recall one climastrologist, Chick Keller, telling John Daley that this was because of the “unusual weather” in the Antarctic.
The Git can remember when “natural” meant “free from affectation” and a bloke could announce that he was gay without attracting unwanted stares from other blokes [sigh].
The Pompous Git says: @ur momisugly August 20, 2013 at 1:12 am
….The Git can remember when “natural” meant “free from affectation” and a bloke could announce that he was gay without attracting unwanted stares from other blokes [sigh].
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yes and when the thoroughbred was a horse (a cross between an English mare and Arab stud so not even a purebred) and chemicals were everything except vacuum.
I really hate the sloppyness in language much of it to do with Political Correctness. As if changing the name of something changes the thing. Must be part of the philosophical base from Hegel Thus, Hegel accepted as real only that which existed in the mind. Objective phenomena and events were of no consequence; only the conceptions of them possessed by human minds were real. Ideas, not objects, were the stuff of which the universe was made. The universe and all events therein existed and took place only in the mind, and any change was a change in ideas.
Sure makes following the scientific method a wee bit difficult.
Donald K. Chilo:
I and several others responded to your post at August 19, 2013 at 12:21 pm
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/18/sea-ice-news-volume-4-number-4-the-maslowski-countdown-to-an-ice-free-arctic-begins/#comment-1394712
My response at August 19, 2013 at 1:27 pm
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/18/sea-ice-news-volume-4-number-4-the-maslowski-countdown-to-an-ice-free-arctic-begins/#comment-1394777
asked
Your reply at August 19, 2013 at 4:59 pm
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/18/sea-ice-news-volume-4-number-4-the-maslowski-countdown-to-an-ice-free-arctic-begins/#comment-1394972
says
1.
You have no scientific evidence to support your unfounded scaremongering.
2.
Your scaremongering is based on your “not being sure”.
3.
You claim the unfounded scare merits additional research.
4.
But your reply does not say – as your earlier post at August 19, 2013 at 12:21 pm did – that you are making a living from that research.
Perhaps you would be more cogent in your appeal for funds if you were to explain your science instead of trying to scaremonger? Or do you think your science is so poor that – of itself – it does not merit funding?
Richard
If there is still significant ice (1 million square kilometers or more as defined by Zwally, see below) in place then, we can consider that this claim by Maslowski in 2007 to be falsified:
But there is no punishment for being wrong. No removal of government funding; No fine for being obviously stupid. They can say whatever they like, and they do, and suffer no penalty. That’s the crux of the matter.
RE: The Pompous Git says:
August 20, 2013 at 12:17 am
Thanks for the link. You can have no idea how I relish such studies. It is like tossing meat to a hungry alligator.
At some point a computer crash disappeared all my links to studies of Vikings, so I hold a lot of things in my skull that I need to re-verify.
One interesting bit of trivia is that the graveyards of Viking Greenland contain two men for every one woman. This is not what you would expect from a culture where men sailed and could be lost at sea. However it is what you would expect if the culture was more than just an isolated outpost of farmers, and had many traders passed through.
Another bit a of trivia involves the names of Viking trading vessels, “knarr.” They evolved over the years, and though we have no examples of such craft, I think it is significant that two ships had the distinction of being called a “Greenland-knarr” and also, (most evocative,) a “Vinland-knarr.” (Why would they name a ship Vinland-knarr if they never traded with Vinland?)
Trade with Europe petered out due to expanding sea-ice, and also due to what boils down to power politics and greed on the part of Kings, Churches, and the Hanseatic League. No Greenland trader in his right mind would want to head east to trade, but that does not mean they wouldn’t want to head west. Considering how secretive traders could be, (and reluctant to pay tithes and taxes,) such trade could have existed without it being noted down in the king’s or church’s records.
This is all wild surmising on my part, but there are a lot of things that don’t add up regarding that Greenland colony. It is largely a 400-year blank. I could go on, but I’ll return your kindness by sharing this link to a paper about a farm that a glacial stream in Greenland exposed. (Beyond doubt it was a miserable place to farm, after the first hundred years, which make trading a more logical reason for the people persisting there for another three hundred years.) http://www.collectionscanada.gc.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp04/mq22551.pdf
Sorry for drifting so far off topic, however I never would have developed an interest in arctic sea ice if it wasn’t for my fascination for an amazing people.
dbstealey,
On any given day the total cover is below or above average, as you can see in the CT graph you posted. The long-term trend for global sea ice is about -2,000,000 sq/km. No spin, just statistics (linear regression).
http://i1006.photobucket.com/albums/af185/barryschwarz/globaseaicetrend_zpsbd51f195.png
Blue line is the trend up to 2000 and extended, and the red line is the smooth for the whole period.
But do check for yourself. Here’s the the link to all the global data (area, daily).
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008
I’d be curious to know if you got different results from mine.
Maybe someone can explain something to me. The high temps in the Arctic summer recorded by DMI are always exceptionally consistent year to year. I’ve always thought that was because all the ice floating around kept the air temps from rising at the surface above a certain number (much like you’d expect to find a very low temp directly above the ice water in a tall glass, I think.)
So, if I’m correct in that thinking, the DMI measure isn’t really telling much about the actual temps in the Arctic, since the ice constrains surface temps once they go above freezing. On the other hand, during the rest of the year, temps vary widely from the average and are probably a better reflection of the true state of Arctic temps.
Put another way, when actual temps are well below freezing, they’re reflected accurately in the DMI, but if actual summer temps hit, say 10 deg C., the ice would constrain the temp reflected in the graph. (Over all years, you almost never see a temp even 3 to 4 deg C above the maximum summer average, for example, so clearly there’s a constraining influence from the ice when it comes to taking the DMI surface temp.)
Now, if all the ice did melt some year, I would expect the DMI summer temp to become unconstrained and to finally shoot higher day by day from the long term summer average. Am I being clear what I’m saying, and would it be correct to think that?
However, this year’s DMI graph, which never has temps even hitting the average, would imply that the actual situation in the Arctic was much colder this summer, or else, on the warm days, the DMI would have recorded the constrained average temp (or close to it.) Make sense? Just curious…
Caleb says: @ur momisugly August 20, 2013 at 6:27 am
….Another bit a of trivia involves the names of Viking trading vessels, “knarr.” They evolved over the years, and though we have no examples of such craft, I think it is significant that two ships had the distinction of being called a “Greenland-knarr” and also, (most evocative,) a “Vinland-knarr.” (Why would they name a ship Vinland-knarr if they never traded with Vinland?) …..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Of course they traded/raided Vinland. All you have to do is look at a MAP and check out the distances. They certainly made it to Ellesmere Island.
You can add this to your collection Notes on Norse Finds from the East Coast of Ellesmere Island, N.W.T.
More on the Bache Peninsula finds The Greenland Vikings: Selected quotes from- The Last Viking: West by Northwest, by John N. Harris, M.A.(CMNS). (A bit more speculative but backed up with finds)
Rod Everson says: @ur momisugly August 20, 2013 at 7:18 am
….. Am I being clear what I’m saying, and would it be correct to think that?
However, this year’s DMI graph, which never has temps even hitting the average, would imply that the actual situation in the Arctic was much colder this summer, or else, on the warm days, the DMI would have recorded the constrained average temp (or close to it.) Make sense? Just curious…
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yes you are clear in what you are saying.
When living near the Great lakes I noticed ‘The Lake Effect’ Rochester NY had much milder climate (and less snow) compared to the village I lived in that was quite a bit south. Ten degrees F colder and all that warm moist air blowing off the lakes turns to snow and dumped on us. link
What you are probably seeing is a combination of the effect of the Ice and of the water temperature. I do not know what the SST in the Arctic Sea was this summer, but what the DMI graph seems to be indicating is either more ice or lower SST or both. The sea would influence the air temperature rather than the other way around.
Sea ice should not be statistically forced into a linear trend. It leads to spurious spending of tax dollars. Instead, an overlapping running mean should be used to interpret trends (IE Oct/Nov/Dec, Nov/Dec/Jan, Dec/Jan/Mar, etc). This average can then be used to compare year to year changes for each 3-month data point using a smoothed average or even simple line graph. Linear trend on weather pattern variations is a nutty statistic.
RE: Gail Combs says:
August 20, 2013 at 7:27 am
Thanks. That’s one I remember. Chain mail is an odd thing to find up there. I also remember one of those gutsy field workers, laboring amidst swarms of mosquitoes at a 700-year-old “non-European” site, came across a single strand of thread. Because it contained wool, it was a wonderful trampoline for speculation.
Of course such scientists have amazing self-control, and don’t allow imagination to run riot while writing a paper, but buy them a beer after the paper is done, and you can hear some amazing possibilities.
However I am hijacking this thread. It is my turn to practice some self-control.
Rod Everson,
Yes, you have it pretty much right. DMI measure surface temps North from 80N, so the perennial sea ice in that area keeps the near-surface air temperature close to freezing. If the sea ice melts out further North of 80, you shouls see the DMI temps get warmer during summer. (Explained to me by one of the researchers there)
That’s right, Pamela. A quadratic fit to Arctic September sea ice is a better fit than linear, for example.