We’ve been watching the progress on the WUWT solar reference page in this plot from Dr. Leif Svalgaard:
Solar Polar Fields – Mt. Wilson and Wilcox Combined -1966 to Present
Now, NASA has decided to call the flip. Video follows.
Something big is about to happen on the sun. According to measurements from NASA-supported observatories, the sun’s vast magnetic field is about to flip.
“It looks like we’re no more than 3 to 4 months away from a complete field reversal,” says solar physicist Todd Hoeksema of Stanford University. “This change will have ripple effects throughout the solar system.”
The sun’s magnetic field changes polarity approximately every 11 years. It happens at the peak of each solar cycle as the sun’s inner magnetic dynamo re-organizes itself. The coming reversal will mark the midpoint of Solar Cycle 24. Half of ‘Solar Max’ will be behind us, with half yet to come.
Hoeksema is the director of Stanford’s Wilcox Solar Observatory, one of the few observatories in the world that monitor the sun’s polar magnetic fields. The poles are a herald of change. Just as Earth scientists watch our planet’s polar regions for signs of climate change, solar physicists do the same thing for the sun. Magnetograms at Wilcox have been tracking the sun’s polar magnetism since 1976, and they have recorded three grand reversals—with a fourth in the offing.
Astronomers at the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) monitor the sun’s global magnetic field on a daily basis. WSO home page
Solar physicist Phil Scherrer, also at Stanford, describes what happens: “The sun’s polar magnetic fields weaken, go to zero, and then emerge again with the opposite polarity. This is a regular part of the solar cycle.”
A reversal of the sun’s magnetic field is, literally, a big event. The domain of the sun’s magnetic influence (also known as the “heliosphere”) extends billions of kilometers beyond Pluto. Changes to the field’s polarity ripple all the way out to the Voyager probes, on the doorstep of interstellar space.
When solar physicists talk about solar field reversals, their conversation often centers on the “current sheet.” The current sheet is a sprawling surface jutting outward from the sun’s equator where the sun’s slowly-rotating magnetic field induces an electrical current. The current itself is small, only one ten-billionth of an amp per square meter (0.0000000001 amps/m2), but there’s a lot of it: the amperage flows through a region 10,000 km thick and billions of kilometers wide. Electrically speaking, the entire heliosphere is organized around this enormous sheet.
During field reversals, the current sheet becomes very wavy. Scherrer likens the undulations to the seams on a baseball. As Earth orbits the sun, we dip in and out of the current sheet. Transitions from one side to another can stir up stormy space weather around our planet.
An artist’s concept of the heliospheric current sheet, which becomes more wavy when the sun’s magnetic field flips. More
Cosmic rays are also affected. These are high-energy particles accelerated to nearly light speed by supernova explosions and other violent events in the galaxy. Cosmic rays are a danger to astronauts and space probes, and some researchers say they might affect the cloudiness and climate of Earth. The current sheet acts as a barrier to cosmic rays, deflecting them as they attempt to penetrate the inner solar system. A wavy, crinkly sheet acts as a better shield against these energetic particles from deep space.
As the field reversal approaches, data from Wilcox show that the sun’s two hemispheres are out of synch.
“The sun’s north pole has already changed sign, while the south pole is racing to catch up,” says Scherrer. “Soon, however, both poles will be reversed, and the second half of Solar Max will be underway.”
When that happens, Hoeksema and Scherrer will share the news with their colleagues and the public.
Source: NASA press release, h/t to Dr. Leif Svalgaard
VIDEO:
Related articles
- The solar cycle is still slumping (wattsupwiththat.com)
- Sun’s 2013 Solar Activity Peak Is Weakest in 100 Years (space.com)


Salvatore Del Prete says:
August 8, 2013 at 12:51 pm
I am still waiting for alternative explanations, have yet to see one.
No need to even consider one, as all you are claiming is your ‘expectation’ and wishes, without justifying or documenting any of them.
Wrong, I have an explanation based on IF certain solar parameters are met.
Past history shows at least evidence for each of the areas I have discussed.
In addition current solar research is also finding at least evidence for all of the areas I have mentioned.
Time will tell,time will tell.
Salvatore Del Prete says:
August 8, 2013 at 1:15 pm
IF certain solar parameters are met.
IF pigs had wings, they could fly.
Past history shows at least evidence for each of the areas I have discussed.
Disregarding the weasel words ‘at least’, perhaps you could present compelling evidence for all the areas.
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 8, 2013 at 12:16 pm
The modulation takes place in the outer heliosphere.
Are you sure that your current understanding is correct?
Your previous understanding (which you are now contradicting) where you said:
“Earth magnetic field keeps cosmic rays at bay” and
“observed agreement between the strength of the Earth’s magnetic magnetic variation over the past 12,000 years and the cosmic ray intensity [14C]”
is physically sound for the following reason
Strength of heliospheric field at the Earth’s orbit (1AU) is orders of magnitude stronger than at say 100 AU. Depth of modulation is proportional to strength of the field; result is that more energetic GCR (greater velocity) would be repelled only by the stronger near field which is in accordance with the Lorentz force F = q v B (q – particle charge, v – particle velocity, B – magnetic field strength)
vukcevic says:
August 8, 2013 at 2:12 pm
Your previous understanding (which you are now contradicting) where you said:
“Earth magnetic field keeps cosmic rays at bay” and
“observed agreement between the strength of the Earth’s magnetic magnetic variation over the past 12,000 years and the cosmic ray intensity [14C]”
The geomagnetic field does not modulate the cosmic rays on the time scale of the solar cycle [and above 60 degrees of latitude the Earth’s field does not ‘keep the cosmic rays at bay’ anyway on any time scale] but on time scales of thousands of years so the ‘keeping at bay’ is a very slowly varying effect..
is physically sound for the following reason
Is not physically sound, because your mechanism is wrong. The reason for the modulation is turbulence and tangled fields that scatter the cosmic rays [the scattering depending on the square of the field strength], combined with a latitude dependence of the turbulent regions [the HCS in essence]
You are trying to wriggle out of the hole you fell in.
Few posts up the thread I said:
“GCR ‘effect’ is greatest and the most important (at the highest count) at solar minima and at such times of the Dalton, Maunder and other Grand Minima; since the alternative notion of possible ‘Grand Maxima’ is wrong (Dr. Svalgaard) , thus low GCR is of no consequence beyond 11 years or 0.1C.”
We know that 11 year cycle has only 0.1C effect, and since there is no ‘Grand Maxima’ there is no ‘Grand warming’ which could be possibly due to the GCRs.
Since ‘Grand Minima’ are considered beyond dispute, it is ‘Grand Cooling’ which could be only possible consequence of the GCR’s impact, that is if you think GCRs have any effect at all, which I don’t.
.
vukcevic says:
August 8, 2013 at 2:41 pm
You are trying to wriggle out of the hole you fell in.
Typical trick. What has this new straw man [what you said] to do with anything?
How is ” low GCR is of no consequence beyond 11 years or 0.1C.” any different from
“if you think GCRs have any effect at all, which I don’t”.
At most you are trying to argue that there is not even a 0.1C effect.
I’m just being kind, giving you a helping hand out of the hole.
0.1C is not due to the GCR, but most likely the TSI.
For the rest of natural varibility look to balance/imbalance of cold/warm ocean currents and its driver the Earth’s tectonics in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere and sub-equatorial Pacific.
vukcevic says:
August 8, 2013 at 3:11 pm
I’m just being kind, giving you a helping hand out of the hole.
0.1C is not due to the GCR, but most likely the TSI.
What hole? We were discussing your misconception of cosmic ray modulation. Now, you know that I have said that the 0.1C is the expected effect of TSI, but there are many people who maintain it is due to cosmic rays. So, my argument is, that even if that were the case the effect is too small to consider. You have a problem with that?
Now, of course Earth’s tectonics has nothing to with climate on time scales of interest. Or do you want to hijack this thread to further peddle your misconception?
vukcevic says:
August 6, 2013 at 11:47 pm
“…one of the greatest and most beneficial discoveries for the humanity was made by Nikola Tesla. Physics and mathematics of rotating magnetic field…”
Agreed. Pure genius and a game changer for mankind.
Perhaps this short demonstration is useful, in the context of rotating magnetic fields…
Tesla’s Egg of Columbus
N.B. The magnetic fields produced were 90° out of phase, in a quadrature relationship. No moving parts, apart from the spinning conducting egg.
Leif’s predictions and thoughts will all be proven wrong before this decade ends when it comes to solar/climatic relationships and the absolute weakness of solar cycle 24.
Salvatore Del Prete says:
August 9, 2013 at 11:19 am
Leif’s predictions and thoughts will all be proven wrong before this decade ends when it comes to solar/climatic relationships and the absolute weakness of solar cycle 24.
Well, my predictions are based on evidence and reason. Your assertions sounds like wishful thinking with no basis is fact or science, but, hey: lots of people believe weird things, so you are in good company.
Time will tell.
Salvatore Del Prete says:
August 9, 2013 at 11:46 am
Time will tell.
Keep it going Salvatore, you are on the money.
Thank You.