The WUWT Hot Sheet, August 5th 2013

WUWT_Hot_Sheet_banner

Warning Signs: Hot Lies Disputed by Cold Facts

I have always found a stark contrast in the way the forecasts of meteorologists on television and radio are limited in accuracy to about a week and beyond that become more speculative while the claims about global warming are always stated in decades. For example, the polar ice caps were supposed to have all melted by now.

The daily forecasts are formulated based on sophisticated meteorological satellites. The global warming claims are all based on computer models, not empirical observation and data.

The time is overdue for the American Meteorological Society to abandon any role in advancing a hoax that Mother Nature herself has exposed.

http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2013/08/hot-lies-disputed-by-cold-facts.html

==================================================================

More Than Two Thirds Of The US Below Normal Temperature In 2013

ScreenHunter_239 Aug. 05 09.04

==================================================================

Will global warming lead to more war? It’s not that simple.

“…the 2000s were the warmest decade on record, but they also managed to be “the least conflict-ridden decade since the 1970s.”

So clearly there are other things at work here”

==================================================================

Growing Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Breaking All Records

image

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/08/02/antarctic-sea-ice-extent-breaking-all-records/

================================================================
From Nature Climate Change
UCSB study finds climate change is causing modifications to marine life behavior

Oceans cover 71 percent of the Earth’s surface, yet our knowledge of the impact of climate change on marine habitats is a mere drop in the proverbial ocean compared to terrestrial systems. An international team of scientists set out to change that by conducting a global meta-analysis of climate change impacts on marine systems.

================================================================

Mann whines about a letter to the editor, then pushes his book:

Climate change letter was personal attack

Editor, Times-Dispatch:

Charlie Battig did a grave disservice to your readers by spreading falsehoods about me personally and about climate science in general in his recent letter, “McAuliffe sways left and right on coal.” Battig parroted discredited denialist talking points, e.g., “the globe hasn’t warmed over the past 16 years” (the past decade, in fact, was the warmest recorded).

It is precisely these sorts of attacks by climate-change deniers that led me to write my recent book, “The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars,” where I discuss my experiences as a reluctant figure in the climate-change debate.

http://www.timesdispatch.com/opinion/letters-to-the-editor-for-august/article_833393bb-0d7e-5389-b90d-9edb451c2ddd.html

=================================================================

Warmist Retreat: Water shortage alarm from Himalayan melt called off

E&E reports:

One of the big unknowns of climate change predictions — and one that has led to considerable contention — lies in knowing the future of water runoff from the Himalayas. The snow- and ice-rich region supplies water for billions of people in Asia and is sometimes referred to as the Earth’s “Third Pole.”

For years, scientists struggled to understand how precipitation will change in these mountains (ClimateWire, Oct. 24, 2011). They have also had difficulty determining how much glacier melt from the mountains contributes to water supply.

Scientists climbing up the ice cliffs of the debris-covered tongue of the Lirung Glacier in the Himalayas. Photo courtesy of Evan Miles.

A study out yesterday in Nature Geoscience by Walter Immerzeel, a physical geographer at Utrecht University, suggests that, in at least two major Himalayan watersheds, river flows and runoff should rise until 2100.

More: http://www.eenews.net/stories/1059985593

Advertisements

59 thoughts on “The WUWT Hot Sheet, August 5th 2013

  1. The E&E report is behind a paywall.

    REPLY: not anymore, refresh for new link – Anthony

  2. Mann:

    Battig parroted discredited denialist talking points, e.g., “the globe hasn’t warmed over the past 16 years” (the past decade, in fact, was the warmest recorded).

    Is anyone really that dim?

    Warming is not the same as warm.

  3. CodeTech says:
    August 5, 2013 at 10:26 pm

    Mann:

    Battig parroted discredited denialist talking points, e.g., “the globe hasn’t warmed over the past 16 years” (the past decade, in fact, was the warmest recorded).

    Is anyone really that dim?

    Warming is not the same as warm.
    ______________________
    Yes.
    You see exactly the same talking point repeated in every lefty media outlet on the planet.

  4. Likely requires a post of its own but the American Geophysical Union has yet again reaffirmed their statement on climate change. Being that it was only 18 months since their last reaffirmation of their statement on climate change it appears they’re simply trying to make headlines to keep some articles on climate change in the news media.

  5. “Warming is not the same as warm.”

    Mann struggles with XL graphs. I doubt he understands derivatives.

  6. warmest decade only stands up when you adjust the past down and increase the present. I would love to see an update on the adjustments only !!

  7. There are times when I wonder if the “distinguished” Professor Michael E. Mann has ever had an original (or even semi-original) “thought” since he “created” [h/t Joelle Gergis] his infamous hockey-stick. An item cited today offers a case in point:

    Mann whines about a letter to the editor, then pushes his book:
    Climate change letter was personal attack
    Editor, Times-Dispatch:
    Charlie Battig did a grave disservice to your readers […]

    Using the search engine of your choice, check the results when your criteria include:

    “grave disservice to your readers” + “Michael E. Mann”

    I’m sure you will be as *shocked* as I was to find how many times this “distinguished” professor appears to have committed what in some circles might be called “self-plagiarism”, but what in other (more down to earth) circles is known as the fallacy of belief in one’s own infallible authority ;-)

  8. CodeTech says:

    Is anyone really that dim?

    You’re confusing dim with dishonest. Mann understands the lies he tells.

  9. Warming and warm – it’s high school science:

    Student: It hasn’t warmed in the last 16 days – the heat wave has paused!
    Climate hysteria instructor: But July has been the hottest month this year!!
    Student: Did you mean to tweet that on #StupidThingsPeopleSay?

  10. “The daily forecasts are formulated based on sophisticated meteorological satellites. The global warming claims are all based on computer models, not empirical observation and data.”

    I am surprised Anthony let that past. The weather forecasts do use satellites, and ground weather stations for data, but that data is then fed into – yes a computer model – to make the prediction. The main difference is that the starting data for a weather forecast is a lot more clearly defined.

  11. Battig parroted discredited denialist talking points, e.g., “the globe hasn’t warmed over the past 16 years” (the past decade, in fact, was the warmest recorded).

    Discredited? Really? Do you mean the documented fact admitted by the IPCC that temperatures have plateaued in the past 16 years?

    Of course any point in a plateau is going to be the highest. This guy is a joke.

  12. Awe Anthony. You missed this one. Following on the announcement in your inaugural HotSheet ” JoNova gets press …”

    JoNova now gets air time …
    Sunday on
    “Michael McLaren speaks with Joanne Nova, author of The Skeptic’s Handbook, who speaks about the stupidity of aligning ourselves with Europe’s ETS.

    Listen
    http://www.2gb.com/article/ets-more-black-market-green-economy#
    or
    Download
    [audio src="http://webstore.2gb.com/audio/overnight-with-michael-mclaren/201308/04-ets%E2%80%93more-black-market-than-gree.mp3" /]

    (From :-
    http://joannenova.com.au/2013/08/jo-nova-talks-on-2gb-about-carbon-credits-and-the-forced-market-that-is-called-free/#comment-1304627 )

  13. Anthony – is this a pea/thimble moment (TM Steve McIntyre)? You didn’t tell the full story:

    “Strong increases in water demand are projected in the Indus as the food production needs to grow to feed the quickly rising population,” Immerzeel said. “An increased water availability from the mountains may help to sustain this growing demand.”

    On the other hand, Trent University’s Cogley noted, this finding, which will be welcome news to those in the region, could have a downside.

    “[There is] the risk that people, and particularly planners, will relax when in truth there is no cause for complacency,” he said.

    Immerzeel agreed, highlighting that climate change could still affect the region’s water resources in many other ways.
    Naughty!

  14. Off topic but can anyone help point me to an article that covers the entire hockey stick saga, including the upside down Tiljander, post 60’s hide the decline, single tree Yamal, Wegman and the recent court cases ?

  15. The daily forecasts are formulated based on sophisticated meteorological satellites.

    That ghastly word again!!! Sophistigated:Pocket OED 1925, to spoil the simplicity or purity or naturalness of, to adulterate, to corrupt or tamper with!!!!!

    Professor Michael Mann, a “reluctant figure in the climate debate”? Are you serious, are you kidding????? I have never known a more enthusiastic indulger than he!

  16. Pl forgive spelling mistake, I must have eaten a laboratory grown burger or something! ;-)

  17. Dr Burns:

    You cannot do better than to cough up a few shekels for Andrew Montford’s “The Hockey Stick Illusion”, available through the usual channels, or via the Bishop Hill blog. It is written in clear and unpretentious style and you don’t need to be a scientist to follow the story – although there are plenty of references if you want to dig deeper.

    Back to the head post:
    ================================================================
    From Nature Climate Change
    UCSB study finds climate change is causing modifications to marine life behavior

    Oceans cover 71 percent of the Earth’s surface, yet our knowledge of the impact of climate change on marine habitats is a mere drop in the proverbial ocean compared to terrestrial systems. An international team of scientists set out to change that by conducting a global meta-analysis of climate change impacts on marine systems.
    ————————————————
    A “global meta-analysis” just means dredging up and recycling all the alarmist claims of the last however long about how the oceans are acidifying and dissolving things, the Great Barrier Reef is dying before our eyes and all the other unsupported nonsense that has been spewed out in support of CAGW in recent memory. It just breathes new life into the corpses of utterly discredited research.

    It’s the Undead being called back into action. Will no-one drive a stake into their hearts?

  18. Warm and Warming: The Lift metaphor
    (Or Elevator for those over there in the US)

    A climatologist goes into ta building and sees a lift (elevator).
    He gets in and presses a button.
    He is a real physicist so he presses the button at the bottom and nothing happens – the model works.
    He is a real physicist so he then presses the button marked 1 and the lift rises – the model works.
    He is a real physicist so he presses the highest bottom he can see and the lift rises – the model works.

    But the lift keeps rising –oh dear.
    And still the lift rises – oh dear, oh dear.
    The model says that at some point the lift will hit the roof and he will be crushed, what to do?

    Suddenly the door opens and an observation can be made – he is very high up, just under the roof!
    He walks down the corridor and he is still in peril – just under the roof!
    He walks into an office to look out the window, because he is a real physicist who wants to make measurements.
    And he is still in peril – just under the roof!

    But, look, the climatologist can save us all. “Follow me” he cries as he sees a place that is not just under the roof.
    And he jumps out of the window.

  19. When you climb a NATURAL HILL, you are at the top for a while..

    Then you come back down again.

  20. CodeTech says:
    August 5, 2013 at 10:26 pm
    “Mann:
    Battig parroted discredited denialist talking points, e.g., “the globe hasn’t warmed over the past 16 years” (the past decade, in fact, was the warmest recorded).

    Is anyone really that dim?”

    When you want to stabilize your rule over a territory, dumb down the population systematically with a public school system and constant spreading of lies.
    If the lies are inconsistent all the better; people will feel their head hurt and blame it on the fact that they’re stupid. Tell them often that they ARE stupid.
    Destroy all ambition. Insult them. Call them climate deniers. Call them other names when they disagree with you and smear them.
    You’ll get an obedient silent public that pays for your lavish lifestyle and even buys your books.

  21. “the last decade being the warmest on record” comes from the UKMO and in respect is true. Using the CET (the longest temperature data set) from 1659 to 2012 the temperature has continuously although erratically risen. However the CET mean monthly temperature in 1659 was 8.83 Deg C and 2012 was 9.70 Deg C giving a rise of 0.87 Deg C in 353 years that equates to 0.246 per century or 0.025/decade.
    Year Rank Hottest
    2000 22
    2001 52
    2002 6
    2003 10
    2004 12
    2005 16
    2006 1
    2007 13
    2008 49
    2009 30
    2010 263
    2011 2
    2012 82
    What they NEVER point out is in the same record the last 20 years have been cooling (albeit a very small amount) but their 10 hottest years on record is also a very small amount.
    the hottest year was 10.82 in 2006 and the coldest 6.84 in 1740 a range of 3.98 which could be noted as natural variation within that record. The 14th warmest was 10.47 in 1733 (before the industrial revolution) Between the years 1739-1740-1741 the temperature went from 9.2 to 6.8 to 9.3 giving a cooling of equivalent to -23.6/decade and a warming of 24.6/decade (also before the industrial revolution).
    My question is, what is all the fuss about?

  22. AndyG55:

    At
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/05/the-wuwt-hot-sheet-august-5th-2013/#comment-1382136
    you say

    When you climb a NATURAL HILL, you are at the top for a while..

    Then you come back down again.

    Yes, that is a worry.

    There is no evidence that the ‘hill’ of global warming was other than natural. And we have been ‘at the top for a while’.

    If the future global cooling you suggest were to happen then it would be more problematic than postulated global warming, especially if the cooling returned the globe to its temperatures in the Little Ice Age.

    Richard

  23. jimmi_the_dalek says:
    August 6, 2013 at 12:28 am
    “I am surprised Anthony let that past. The weather forecasts do use satellites, and ground weather stations for data, but that data is then fed into – yes a computer model – to make the prediction. The main difference is that the starting data for a weather forecast is a lot more clearly defined.”

    I guess that explains why the weather forecast beyond a couple of days is not to be taken seriously. Beyond a week forecasts are for entertainment only.

  24. industry-funded “climategate” smear campaign

    That’s a new one, isn’t it? Leak, hack, or whatever, I’d never before heard that “climategate” was industry funded.

    Which particular industry was that then?

  25. No Offense Anthony, but the Crimes Disgrace (as it is known to the locals) can hardly be called a source of news or even a valid newspaper. You only read the sports section to find out scores (and even then it is not always correct).

    I am sure they ran to Mikey Mann for a rebuttal. And Mikey Mann was quick with his non sequiturs. He really must think everyone is an idiot. “Warmest decade on Record” has NOTHING to do with a warming pause of 16 years. If you bring a pot of water to boil, it will be the hottest it has ever been, but it also will not be getting any hotter.

  26. “The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars,” where I discuss my experiences as a reluctant figure in the climate-change debate.
    Mikey reluctantly accepting payment for the same.

  27. @- AndyG55
    “When you climb a NATURAL HILL, you are at the top for a while..
    Then you come back down again.”

    This hill is steeper and higher than any for the last ten thousand years as shown by Marcott et al and the PAGE- 2k results.
    The evidence that it is an entirely natural hill is conspicuous by its absence. Apart from a small increase in solar energy in the first third of the last century there is NO natural explanation for the recent rise in temperature after several thousand years of falling global temperatures.

    Meanwhile there is ample evidence the hill is not completely natural. The measured spectra of the downwelling and outgoing LW radiation has changed with the rising CO2 and unless you believe in ‘dragonslayers’ that is a clear and unequivocal cause of at least part of that hill.

  28. Those industry funded climate change deniers, Tom-Dick-Harry, are a bunch of liars and charlatans that attack me personally…

  29. On one hand, I sort of feel bad for Penn St. On the other hand, being a former Richmonder with Charlottesville ties, I’m quite happy MM didn’t ‘basically’ get Dr. Singer’s prior position at UVA.

  30. richardscourtney says at August 6, 2013 at 3:43 am…

    Well let’s not panic over things that may not happen. Normnl prudent adaptation is the way to go, regardless.

    BTW, are you back from holiday now?
    I promised some people, I would speak to you when you were.

  31. Technically Mann is correct. It is different to say there was no warming vs. the trend is flat. We should be careful because that allows him to continue to push his propaganda. If you look closely at RSS data you can see there was a little warming at the beginning of the 16.6 year flat trend followed by the same amount of cooling at the end.

    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1996.9/to/plot/rss/from:1996.9/to/trend/plot/rss/from:1996.9/to:2005/trend/plot/rss/from:2005/trend

    While Mann is clearly being intellectually dishonest, we give him that opportunity by not being precise.

    • Richard M says:
      August 6, 2013 at 6:07 am

      Technically Mann is correct.

      No he is not. What is it with the dumbing down of America that people cannot understand the difference between an action and a state. It may be the WARMEST decade, but it has not been WARMING. Again, a pot of water is warming until it reaches boiling. Then it is the hottest it has ever been, but it is no longer WARMING.

  32. @E&E on increased run off of Himalayan glaciers:
    “On the other hand, Trent University’s Cogley noted, this finding, which will be welcome news to those in the region, could have a downside.

    ‘[There is] the risk that people, and particularly planners, will relax when in truth there is no cause for complacency,’ he said”

    “findings”, from a Warming Model? Yup, “mainstream” Climate Science is still in its infancy….problem is it’s never going to grow up. As long as Matel keeps on making new Barbie Models, there’s no telling what she might do next.

  33. steveta_uk says:
    August 6, 2013 at 4:36 am

    industry-funded “climategate” smear campaign

    That’s a new one, isn’t it? Leak, hack, or whatever, I’d never before heard that “climategate” was industry funded.

    Which particular industry was that then?

    The Truth Industry, of which most of us are a part.

    Nice thing about being truthful is that you automatically belong, and it doesn’t take any investment except being truthful.

    (And Mann and his minions are obviously not members of that “industry”.)

  34. I guess Mikey likes marching to the beat of his own Alarmist drum. When confronted with the fact of the 16+ -year halt in the warming, the usual mode is to either deny it, calling it a “cherry-pick” or to fly the somewhat-riskier anti-science of “hiding heat”. Instead, he goes for the non-sequiteur and Alarmist meme of “hottest decade ever”, an interesting choice since it is in actuality nothing but a big cherry-pick, if in fact even true (due to faulty and/or fudged data).

  35. Neil Catto says:
    August 6, 2013 at 3:39 am
    .
    .
    .
    My question is, what is all the fuss about?
    ___
    The fuss is simply about Money and Control not temperature. Control of a centrally planned one world (not including the PRC of course) watermelon gov’t where everyone is told what to believe and how to behave unless of course you are one of the “leaders” or a member of the nomenklatura. Sounds like destitution for the masses (us) where every socialist economy ends up.

  36. I have always found a stark contrast in the way the forecasts of meteorologists on television and radio are limited in accuracy to about a week and beyond that become more speculative…

    A week?? That’s being extremely generous. Anything beyond a day and a half is technically known as a Crap Shoot. If you look at a forecast 5 days out, take a screencap, and look at the same forecast for that day when it arrives, the two will most likely be pretty different.

  37. I always find it puzzling and somewhat amusing to see the level of disparagement and vitriol directed at Michael Mann.
    He may have been involved in the first paleoclimate reconstruction, but that was ages ago and many others have made better and more recent measurements of the past climate.
    Paleoclimate is not even central to the AGW theory. It can help and inform estimates of climate sensitivity as the greater the extremes during the MWP and the LIA the greater climate sensitivity and therefore the greater the warming from the rising CO2.

    But climate science is MUCH more than paleoclimate, which is really a small niche within a considerably bigger field where the main concern is how existing conditions act via physics and chemistry to alter the climate. If Mann had never done his study there would be no difference to the AGW theory.
    The antipathy towards Mann when his contribution to the science of AGW is minor and peripheral just looks… bizzarre and disproportionate.

  38. AGWers cannot afford to say the warming trend has stopped. And they will not say so till the current trend, which is flat, starts to decrease and then stays below the norm, in a flat or decreasing trend, for at least a decade or longer. And that’s a fact Jack.

  39. “The antipathy towards Mann when his contribution to the science of AGW is minor and peripheral just looks… bizzarre and disproportionate”

    There’s no question thats true. MM is the poster child for the bad science of CAGW. He could of course just admit that he made mistake(s), and own up to taking an excessively partisan approach. We would then all forget him.

  40. As the pensioners die from the cold, they can tear down their homes and use that wood for fuel. That will reduce the need for imported wood, eh?

  41. Oops! I finally got caught on a wrong thread. I always wondered how that could happen. Was looking to post on Drax converting coal power to wood power. Ah well.

  42. izen says:
    August 6, 2013 at 7:32 am


    The antipathy towards Mann when his contribution to the science of AGW is minor and peripheral just looks… bizzarre and disproportionate.

    Unless you realize that Mann acts like an activist and not a scientist.

    He’s your typical post-normal poster child of a scientist–he comes to a politically-correct position and then bends his “science” to support it.

    Those of us that are classical scientists find this approach to be both dangerous and criminal.

    The fact that you can’t see it makes me question your integrity.

  43. Damn denialists and their talking points! Stop bringing up facts please, it distorts our fantasy.

  44. I am glad to see that Mann still says such idiotic things like warmest decade ever tells us the world is still warming. Hello… The last decade of my life is the tallest decade ever, does the idiot Mann still believe I am growing taller?

    I am now 32, so in essence Mann claims the planet is still warming and that I am still growing taller. Heck, he still believes he is growing taller. How did such a man ever get a phd?

  45. Izen , Mann sets himself up by putting his name in the public arena and stating the planet is still warming because its the hottest decade ever. Only a true idiot says something like that in public and this man is supposedly well educated. He honestly believes I guess that every adult on this planet is still growing
    because they are at their tallest decade ever. And we are all going to grow catastrophically right?

    If he did not say stupid things skeptics would probably just ignore him. But he opens his mouth and gives us a chuckle. Blame him for uttering dumb things while promoting his book.

  46. CodeTech says: @ August 5, 2013 at 10:26 pm

    Mann:

    Battig parroted discredited denialist talking points, e.g., “the globe hasn’t warmed over the past 16 years” (the past decade, in fact, was the warmest recorded).

    Is anyone really that dim?
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    They are aiming for the 50% with IQ 100 and below. Of course in Detroit we don’t have to worry because the much of the population there can’t even read….

    he Downfall of Detroit: It took only six decades of “progressive” policies to bring a great city to its knees. By Mark Steyn

    ….In my book After America, I observe that the physical decay of Detroit — the vacant and derelict lots for block after block after block — is as nothing compared to the decay of the city’s human capital. Forty-seven percent of adults are functionally illiterate, which is about the same rate as the Central African Republic, which at least has the excuse that it was ruled throughout the Seventies by a cannibal emperor. Why would any genuine innovator open a business in a Detroit “innovation hub”? Whom would you employ? The illiterates include a recent president of the school board, Otis Mathis, which doesn’t bode well for the potential work force a decade hence…..

    That is why they need ‘Community Organizers’ to get out the vote to keep the welfare payments rolling and the Political Machine in office. /snark

  47. the polar ice caps were supposed to have all melted by now…

    Huh? What a ridiculous statement.

    The daily forecasts are formulated based on sophisticated meteorological satellites. The global warming claims are all based on computer models, not empirical observation and data.

    Weather forecasting is done with the help of models. The empirical basis for AGW is the absorptive properties of CO2, and there are mountains of data for temperature, CO2 and a gazillion other indices. Is this author a Slayer?

    Citing daftness of this magnitude does no credit to WUWT.

    REPLY: Barry sorry, you are wrong – for example see last year’s countdown to a previous ice free arctic claim, https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/05/12/the-arctic-ocean-could-be-nearly-ice-free-at-the-end-of-summer-by-2012/ and yes satellites are used in daily forecasts in addition to models. For example, here on the west coast of USA, we primarily rely on GOES WEST and persistence timeline because models have less data to work with over the Pacific. You are out of your league here. Your statement is the one that’s daft – Anthony

  48. Anthony,

    the author siad “ice caps” – plural. No one said Antarctica would melt out, and citing a single source for saying the Arctic “could be nearly ice free” by a certain date hardly amounts to what is “supposed” to happen. AR4 estimated ice free Arctic by the end of the century. Inferring that weather forecasting is done without any modeling at all – isolating modelng to climate projections – is also wrong, as you well know. Models are used for weather forecasting where I live, for example.

    Critical commentary is important, and should eschew misleading rhetoric.

    I’ve sent you an email.

    REPLY: meh, semantics. Not interested in your double standard there. Weather satellites are used globally for forecasting- Anthony

  49. Excuse me? I was not the one who falsely inferred modeling is not used in weather forecasting.

    “Weather satellites are used globally for forecasting”

    Of course, but surely you don’t mean to bolster the inference that modeling is not used also. You’ve posted articles based on weather models on this site.

    REPLY: I’m done with this conversation. Weather satellites are used for weather forecasting, get over yourself. Weather models are not exclusive to making forecasts. Forecasts issued to the public are done by a forecaster with SKILL, who evaluates data, observations, radiosondes, sat, radar, model output, and combines with experience to produce a best educated guess. You’ve never produced weather forecasts so haven’t a freaking clue what you are talking about. – Anthony

Comments are closed.