Some days you just have to laugh.
The map, is quite something; perhaps it is the product of a bender or a psychotic episode of some sorts. Maybe its a lame attempt at satire, maybe the person actually believes what they wrote. It is hard to determine.
This person (“anonymous coward” per Slashdot) writes at a place called “Humanist Cafe”, which seems more anti-human than pro-human:
Jehovah God punishes only the deniers and saves the believers. Isn’t that the way these things go. Only this time, it’s science we’re talking about. When JG is done, the country will look something like this:
[Click to Enlarge]
That’s the Lower 28 1/2. Isn’t it beautiful.
That’s the country if climate change affects only the states whose representatives in the House and the Senate deny global warming.
Now, some states get a little lucky – they are saved by rather hefty mountain ranges. A few progressive cities in denier states are saved too – like San Antonio and Austin. But, Red ‘Merica gets hit hard.
Source: http://humanistcafe.wordpress.com/2013/08/03/teapocalypse-the-map-of-denier-states-under-the-sea/
This reminds me of the sort of rants “Forecast the Facts” Brad Johnson has made about the states with conservative public representatives:
On a planet with 7 billion people, some 4 billion of whom have at least telephonic Internet access, the odds of thousands of ‘nutcases’ being able to post as above is roughly 0.99999999999… (or 1.0). This provides an experimental validation.
Question to poster: since Jehovah ‘is’ God in at least some languages/ traditions, does your Jehovah God mean God’s God, who in ancient beliefs could draw and then ‘make so’ any map they wished, as you show here, even though God him/herself couldn’t?
Surely this map rates another Lew survey, since its cartographic authenticity is being doubted by terrestrial elevation deniers. And it undoubtedly merits inclusion in AR5, or at least a revised SREX thereto, even though it may have slightly missed the peer review publication deadlines. A safe prediction is that other timing misses will be included, so why not this profound insight?
“If wishes were horses, beggars would ride”
@Bob; Pascal said it (his Wager in Pensees III 233), I believe it, that’s enough for me.
“Let us weigh the gain and the loss in wagering that God is. Let us estimate these two chances. If you gain, you gain all; if you lose, you lose nothing.”
From this mustard seed sprang my Faith, justified sola fide, no words, works or rites required.
Others have addressed this, but…My current home in Kansas will be underwater, but my old home in New Jersey, which is at exactly the same altitude, will not be?? This Jehovah is going to flood places he doesn’t like and let the ones he does survive. This is surely religion, not physics.
, Gore and Mann found guilty of using p.e.d’s…….planet enhancing data
Goodness. Looks like someone missed their lessons on topography … or there is about to be a huge uplift on the east and west coasts, the central US is going to sink, and a mountain range is going to sprout up to prevent the Great Montanan Sea from draining down the Mississippi. I suppose if a large asteroid were to crash into the centre of the US SE of St Louis on a north west trajectory …. Course, not much would be left around the rest of the US but it “could” happen … 😂 🙂
The stupidity and hatred, they burn. Warmatards so love to dance on the graves of those who dare question their CAGW religion. They will even fantasize about it. It’s just who they are. It’s a religion of liars, thieves and haters. Must be nice.
@David in Cal
Yes I agree with you. The whole thing is tongue in cheek, and very well done, I might add.
Looks like the Louisiana Purchase is taken out.
Denver is still going to do well. Perhaps the environmental goodness from Boulder will protect us here.
Fatal flaw in this anticipated bit of future schadenfreude:
most people in the US “denier states” will already be in Heaven post-Rapture
/humour
Couldn’t help noticing that progressive cities like San Antonio and Austin in denier states will be saved. I assume they are at a higher altitude. Can i propose that there might be a link between progressive thought and lack of oxygen due to living at high altitude ?
As long as Washington DC is wiped off the map then everything’s good.
Sadly anonymous coward knows little of God as revealed to Jeremiah:
Jeremiah 9:24 NIV
The Cornwall Alliance provides godly perspectives on providing justice for the poor in the context of global warming.
David in Cal says:
August 4, 2013 at 1:57 pm
Oh, come on. This is obviously a kind of joke.
“Hey, imagine if everyone not like me was *DEAD*. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!”
Not really funny, especially when it’s the same joke told over and over and over.
Basically what you get when the ice caps melt, this is more or less the North American Inland Sea during Cretaceous, when, of course, as WUWT has been telling us CO2 was 10 X pre-industrial. Of course, it does take a while to melt the ice caps.
The STUPID… It burns….
Where do these people come up with this drivel?
CAGW is the new religion of the sad, lonely anti-nuclear / anti-west / anti-industry / anti-human / enviro-nuts. They feel the constant need to act on something or other. “We must act now!” Sorry, no we must not ‘act now’ or in the future on Co2. We must continue releasing this vital fertilizer which has been greening the Earth for over 2 decades.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50563/abstract
http://www.biogeosciences.net/10/339/2013/bg-10-339-2013.html
OK, that was several hours of fun.
From the Open Minds Department, we have these recently deleted long posts from the subject blogsite:
I would be surprised if this post survives very long here, but here goes anyway.
I am always greatly saddened when I read such an article. I ask myself “Is this as far as we have come as a species?” What happened to science?
So, I am about to present some very hard core science. If you make it to the end there is a chance you will gain insight into how science is actually done.
Initiating this discussion, does anyone here know when we all live? The name of the geologic epoch?
We live in the year 11,716 of our precious little Holocene Epoch. The 8th interglacial since the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). Seven of the last eight such interglacials have each lasted about half of a precession cycle. The precession cycles oscillates between 19,000 and 23,000 years long and we are at the 23kyr part now, making 11,500 years half. We are precisely 216 years older than half the present precession cycle length.
Which is why this discussion has relevance.
How long will the Holocene last?
That debate kicked-off at the same time as the AGW debate did and was triggered by the very same evidence. The waged-within-the-paleoclimate-literature debate you have heard not one thing about.
We will tune into this debate with a paper published in Nature, 1998, by arguably the father of modern paleoclimatology Wallace S. Broecker:
“The End of the Present Interglacial: How and When?” (Quaternary Science Reviews, volume 17, pp. 689-694) http://www.personal.kent.edu/~jortiz/paleoceanography/broecker.pdf
Broecker posits these three questions at the end of the introduction:
“1) Were previous intervals of peak interglaciationterminated by abrupt global coolings?
(2) How close are we to the end of the present interval of peak interglaciation?
(3) Will the ongoing buildup of greenhouse gases alter the natural sequence of events?
And those, ladies and gentlemen, are some very interesting questions indeed.
Beyond this point, this will get significantly more technical in terms of the peer-reviewed science you may have never been exposed to.
The reports of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are often referred to as the gold standard on climate change. We will start with the worst-case, business-as-usual projected anthropogenic signal from the IPCC’s Assessment Report 4 (AR4) (2007). Proceed to Figure 10.33 from page 821 of Chapter 10 and note that if we take the upper bound of the error bar at the year 2099 we read +0.59 meters of sea level rise.
This is the worst case estimate, the anthropogenic “signal” in terms of the singular measure of sea level. +0.59M is about 2 feet. For the purposes of the following discussion we will round that to +0.6M.
As we are yet once again at a half-precession cycle old interglacial, it would seem reasonable to inquire as to what might the ends of the other post-MPT interglacials have been like. And this is where we enter the basic scientific paradigm known as the signal-to-noise ratio.
The last such interglacial back in the paleoclimate record is MIS-5e, or the Eemian interglacial. Hearty and Neumann (Quaternary Science Reviews 20 [2001] 1881–1895) abstracting their work in the Bahamas state:
“The geology of the Last Interglaciation (sensu stricto, marine isotope substage MIS 5e) in the Bahamas records the nature of sea level and climate change. After a period of quasi-stability for most of the interglaciation, during which reefs grew to +2.5 m, sea level rose rapidly at the end of the period, incising notches in older limestone. After brief stillstands at +6 and perhaps +8.5 m, sea level fell with apparent speed to the MIS 5d lowstand and much cooler climatic conditions. It was during this regression from the MIS 5e highstand that the North Atlantic suffered an oceanographic ‘‘reorganization’’ about 11873 ka ago. During this same interval, massive dune-building greatly enlarged the Bahama Islands. Giant waves reshaped exposed lowlands into chevron-shaped beach ridges, ran up on older coastal ridges, and also broke off and threw megaboulders onto and over 20 m-high cliffs. The oolitic rocks recording these features yield concordant whole-rock amino acid ratios across the archipelago. Whether or not the Last Interglaciation serves as an appropriate analog for our ‘‘greenhouse’’ world, it nonetheless reveals the intricate details of climatic transitions between warm interglaciations and near glacial conditions.”
Right away you should have perceived two fairly significant end extreme interglacial sea-level “noise” problems. Sea level “noise” +2.5M above present for most of the interglacial. The AGW AR4 worst case “signal” of +0.59M would be only 1/4 of the normal interglacial noise.
But it gets worse than you thought.
When compared to the +6 to +8.5M highstands achieved right at the half-precession old Eemian, our AGW “signal” scores only 10% at best.
It gets worse than that.
Boettger, et al (Quaternary International 207 [2009] 137–144) abstract it:
“In terrestrial records from Central and Eastern Europe the end of the Last Interglacial seems to be characterized by evident climatic and environmental instabilities recorded by geochemical and vegetation indicators. The transition (MIS 5e/5d) from the Last Interglacial (Eemian, Mikulino) to the Early Last Glacial (Early Weichselian, Early Valdai) is marked by at least two warming events as observed in geochemical data on the lake sediment profiles of Central (Gro¨bern, Neumark–Nord, Klinge) and of Eastern Europe (Ples). Results of palynological studies of all these sequences indicate simultaneously a strong increase of environmental oscillations during the very end of the Last Interglacial and the beginning of the Last Glaciation. This paper discusses possible correlations of these events between regions in Central and Eastern Europe. The pronounced climate and environment instability during the interglacial/glacial transition could be consistent with the assumption that it is about a natural phenomenon, characteristic for transitional stages. Taking into consideration that currently observed ‘‘human-induced’’ global warming coincides with the natural trend to cooling, the study of such transitional stages is important for understanding the underlying processes of the climate changes.”
So, not one, but two warming events, right at the end of the last interglaciation.
However, it gets even worse than that.
As it turns out, even on things which actually have happened, the science is not that particularly well-settled.
http://business.uow.edu.au/sydney-bschool/content/groups/public/@web/@sci/@eesc/documents/doc/uow045009.pdf
If the above link posts properly it will take you to a fascinating paper where Hearty et al (2007) discuss “Global sea-level fluctuations during the Last Interglaciation (MIS-5e)” (copy and paste paper title into the contiguous text field of advanced scholar.google.com to access). Here the authors summarize 12 worldwide studies on sea levels which highstand estimates range from +6M amsl to +45M amsl. And this is not within the full end most recent extreme interglacial estimates of sea level rise right at the very end of the Eemian.
That honor may attend a study by Astrid Lysa et al (2001) “Late Pleistocene stratigraphy and sedimentary environment of the Arkhangelsk area, northwest Russia” (Global and Planetary Change 31 Ž2001. 179–199) http://lin.irk.ru/pdf/6696.pdf
From the abstract:
“The Arkhangelsk area lies in the region that was reached by the northeastern flank of the Scandinavian ice sheet during the last glaciation. Investigations of Late Pleistocene sediments show interglacial terrestrial and marine conditions with sea level up to 52 m above the present level.”
MIS-5e could represent the highest sea-level excursion yet know to have occurred after the Mid Pleistocene transition. If we take both worst-case estimates, we have the IPCC AR4 AGW “signal” prediction of +0.59M rise by 2099 to compare with the nearly 2 orders of magnitude (or almost a factor of 100) +52M rise which may have occurred at the end of the most recent interglacial.
This post grows long by necessity, so I will start another in which I will continue and pose possibly the most vexing question we might ask about climate.
The gulf of Arizona is kind of neat. It contains many mountain ranges in Nevada some of which go well over 10,000 feet in elevation.
@Doug Huffman says:
“Let us weigh the gain and the loss in wagering that God is. Let us estimate these two chances. If you gain, you gain all; if you lose, you lose nothing.”
From this mustard seed sprang my Faith, justified sola fide, no words, works or rites required.
I’ve often wondered about that argument. How do you decide WHICH God? There are a fair number to chose from, and they mostly (with slight variations) promise all THEIR followers eternal bliss and the unbelievers eternal damnation…
Post 2
The climate “jokers” in the eight post-MPT interglacial climate “deck” are the three that have occurred at an eccentricity minimum. Ours; MIS-1, MIS-11, the Holsteinian interglacial, and MIS-19, which occurred pretty much at or within the Mid Pleistocene Transition.
Remember that 7 of the last 8 interglacials have each lasted about half a precession cycle? Well MIS-11 was that interglacial which was not on the half-precession interglacial clock. Depending upon which paper you review, the range of the estimates of the duration of MIS-11 is somewhere between 22 and 33 thousand years long, Or 1.5 to perhaps 2 full interglacial cycles.
Ladies and gentlemen, that is an anomaly. However MIS-19, the second to last time we were at an eccentricity was not anomalously long. It seems to have lasted about ~9,500 or so years.
In the simplest math, that gives us a 50:50 chance of “going long” with the Holocene.
Here we will delve much deeper than that. Because that is how science works.
Looking at orbital mechanics and model results, Loutre and Berger (2003) in a landmark paper (meaning a widely quoted and cited paper) for the time predicted that the current interglacial, the Holocene, might very well last another 50,000 years, particularly if CO2 were factored in. This would make the Holocene the longest lived interglacial since the onset of the Northern Hemisphere Glaciations some 2.8 million years ago.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818102001868 (paywalled)
Loutre and Berger’s 2003 paper was soon followed by another landmark paper by Lisieki and Raymo (Paleoceanography, 2005), an exhaustive look at 57 globally distributed deep Ocean Drilling Project (and other) cores (Figure 1), which stated:
“Recent research has focused on MIS 11 as a possible analog for the present interglacial [e.g., Loutre and Berger, 2003; EPICA community members, 2004] because both occur during times of low eccentricity. The LR04 age model establishes that MIS 11 spans two precession cycles, with 18O values below 3.6o/oo for 20 kyr, from 398-418 ka. In comparison, stages 9 and 5 remained below 3.6o/oo for 13 and 12 kyr, respectively, and the Holocene interglacial has lasted 11 kyr so far. In the LR04 age model, the average LSR of 29 sites is the same from 398-418 ka as from 250-650 ka; consequently, stage 11 is unlikely to be artificially stretched. However, the June 21 insolation minimum at 65N during MIS 11 is only 489 W/m2, much less pronounced than the present minimum of 474 W/m2. In addition, current insolation values are not predicted to return to the high values of late MIS 11 for another 65 kyr. We propose that this effectively precludes a ‘double precession-cycle’ interglacial [e.g., Raymo, 1997] in the Holocene without human influence.”
http://large.stanford.edu/publications/coal/references/docs/Lisiecki_Raymo_2005_Pal.pdf
Muddying the waters more we have Chronis Tzedakis, in an exhaustive look at the MIS-1/MIS-11/MIS-19 conundrum (Tzedakis, 2010, The MIS 11 – MIS 1 analogy, southern European vegetation, atmospheric methane and the “early anthropogenic hypothesis”, Climate of the Past, vol. 6, pp 131-144, European Geosciences Union)
http://www.clim-past.net/6/131/2010/cp-6-131-2010.pdf
considers the matter thusly:
“While the astronomical analogy between MIS 1 and MIS11 has been incorporated in mainstream literature, there is a distinct difference between the two intervals: the Holocene contains one insolation peak so far, while the MIS 11 interval of full interglacial conditions (Substage 11c of the marine isotopic stratigraphy) extends over two insolation peaks. Thus an interesting situation has arisen with regard to the precise alignment of the two intervals.”
“The two schemes lead to very different conclusions about the length of the current interglacial, in the absence of anthropogenic forcing, …
“… the precessional alignment would suggest that the Holocene is nearing its end, “while the obliquity alignment would suggest it has another 12,000 years to run its course.
“In this view, the two Terminations are incommensurate and MIS-1 is analogous only to the second part of MIS-11c.”
Regardless if you choose MIS-11 or MIS-19 as the analog for our precious little Holocene interglacial (so far), MIS-11 seems to have had a very long life even if at a sustained +21M amsl, perhaps a single end extreme interglacial highstand at +21.3M amsl:
Olson and Hearty (2009) in “A sustained +21 m sea-level highstand during MIS 11 (400 ka): direct fossil and sedimentary evidence from Bermuda” (Quaternary Science Reviews 28 (2009) 271–285)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379108003144 (paywalled)
“A small, protected karstic feature exposed in a limestone quarry in Bermuda preserved abundant sedimentary and biogenic materials documenting a transgressive phase, still-stand, and regressive phase of a sea-level in excess of 21.3 m above present during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 (400 ka) as determined by U/Th dating and amino acid racemization.”
If MIS-11 is any guide, the sea level map of the author might have happened anyway. And not just +21.3M amsl 400,000 years ago, but maybe up to +52M amsl about a hundred thousand years ago.
MIS-19, on the other hand, lasted about half a precession cycle, just like the 7 other post-MPT interglacials. But it suffered not one or two, but three thermal excursions, right at its very end:
From K.Pol et al (2010) we have this:
“During the glacial inception from MIS 19 to MIS 18, the low resolution EPICA Dome C water stable isotope record (Jouzel et al., 2007) has revealed millennial variability principally marked by the occurrence of three consecutive warm events (hereafter called Antarctic Isotope Maxima — AIM, following EPICA-community-members, 2006, and noted A, B, C on Fig. 2).”
(“New MIS 19 EPICA Dome C high resolution deuterium data: Hints for a problematic
preservation of climate variability at sub-millennial scale in the “oldest ice””, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2010.07.030) (Earth and Planetary Science Letters 298, pp. 98-103)
Can it get any worse than that? In fact, it does.
If you have been keeping up, in the most relevant recent past (post-MPT time, or the last 800kyrs or so) sea levels seem to actually have been from perhaps a low of +2.5M above present “for most of the interglacial” during MIS-5e to perhaps as much as +21M above present for most of the only extended interglacial (which eerily almost matches the Holocene) we know of in the most relevant time and eccentricity minima time frame (or at least the last half thereof). That, in conjunction with the 3 thermal pulses at the end of MIS-19 constitutes the natural normal end extreme interglacial climate noise envelope. Within all of this we must distinguish our worst case “anthropogenic signal” of +0.59 meters by 2099.
Good luck with that.
As difficult as that might appear to a late-Holocene sentient being, it actually does get much worse than that.
Run your General Circulation Models (GCMs) forwards or backwards (hindcasts), it might not matter all that much. As it turns out Greenland ice records climate change to not quite back to the beginning of the last interglacial, the Eemian, but in pretty good detail, compared to Antarctic ice (Antarctica is a sort of snow desert, with average annual snowfall measured in inches whereas Greenland is measured in tens of feet. And ice only gets so thick (extra credit research project).
Sole, Turiel and Llebot writing in Physics Letters A (366 [2007] 184–189) identified three classes of D-O oscillations in the Greenland GISP2 ice cores A (brief), B (medium) and C (long), reflecting the speed at which the warming relaxes back to the cold glacial state:
“In this work ice-core CO2 time evolution in the period going from 20 to 60 kyr BP [15] has been qualitatively compared to our temperature cycles, according to the class they belong to. It can be observed in Fig. 6 that class A cycles are completely unrelated to changes in CO2 concentration. We have observed some correlation between B and C cycles and CO2 concentration, but of the opposite sign to the one expected: maxima in atmospheric CO2 concentration tend to correspond to the middle part or the end the cooling period. The role of CO2 in the oscillation phenomena seems to be more related to extend the duration of the cooling phase than to trigger warming. This could explain why cycles not coincident in time with maxima of CO2 (A cycles) rapidly decay back to the cold state. ”
“Nor CO2 concentration either the astronomical cycle change the way in which the warming phase takes place. The coincidence in this phase is strong among all the characterized cycles; also, we have been able to recognize the presence of a similar warming phase in the early stages of the transition from glacial to interglacial age. Our analysis of the warming phase seems to indicate a universal triggering mechanism, what has been related with the possible existence of stochastic resonance [1,13, 21]. It has also been argued that a possible cause for the repetitive sequence of D/O events could be found in the change in the thermohaline Atlantic circulation [2,8,22,25]. However, a cause for this regular arrangement of cycles, together with a justification on the abruptness of the warming phase, is still absent in the scientific literature.”
In discussing the Late Eemian Aridity Pulse (LEAP) at the end-Eemian, Sirocko et al (A late Eemian aridity pulse in central Europe during the last glacial inception, nature, vol. 436, 11 August 2005, doi:10.1038/nature03905, pp 833-836) opine:
“Investigating the processes that led to the end of the last interglacial period is relevant for understanding how our ongoing interglacial will end, which has been a matter of much debate…..”
“The onset of the LEAP occurred within less than two decades, demonstrating the existence of a sharp threshold, which must be near 416 Wm2, which is the 65oN July insolation for 118 kyr BP (ref. 9). This value is only slightly below today’s value of 428 Wm2. Insolation will remain at this level slightly above the inception for the next 4,000 years before it then increases again.”
We are nearing the end of our climate journey. It is all up to each of us. Allow me to sum this up into what occurs to me to be a most seminal question.
We are yet again at an eccentricity minimum. Just like MIS-19, which did not “go long”, and MIS-11, which did. At best, orbitally, we are closer to the last half of MIS-11 than to MIS-19. On the upside “Insolation will remain at this level slightly above the [glacial] inception for the next 4,000 years before it then increases again.”
Remember, it’s all up to you now. You, we, need to make it just 4 millenia to when the Arctic Circle (N65 degrees) summer solstice insolation value ticks up to where we are now. Which is alarmingly close to glacial inception at the end of the last interglacial. If “The role of CO2 in the oscillation phenomena seems to be more related to extend the duration of the cooling phase than to trigger warming” would you:
A. Strip the CO2 “climate security blanket” from the late Holocene atmosphere?
Or
B. Invoke the Precautionary Principle and leave it up there just in case……
C.
The intriguing thing to me is that actually is the choice. Do your best…….
Both posts were deleted within seconds of being posted.
The above two deleted posts at the “Humanist Cafe” real time are offered for evidence as regards:
“Human behavior is profoundly affected by the influenceability
of individuals and the social networks that link
them together. Well before the proliferation of online social
networking, offline or interpersonal social networks have been
acknowledged as a major factor in determining how societies
move toward consensus in the adoption of ideologies, traditions,
and attitudes [1,2]. As a result, the dynamics of social
influence has been heavily studied in sociological, physics, and
computer science literature [3–7].
“…A key feature in both thesemodels is that once
an individual adopts the newstate, his state remains unchanged
at all subsequent times.
“…..In closing, we have demonstrated here the existence of a
tipping point at which the initial majority opinion of a network
switches quickly to that of a consistent and inflexible minority.”
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1102.3931.pdf
Too easy
I’ve seen a number of comments from posters with the ‘Anonymous Coward’ handle.
Judging by what I’ve read this is a joke aimed at the Humanist Cafe to highlight the gullibility of.’believers’
The Jehovah reference probably alludes to the quasi-religious nature of some Green sectors.
The obviously incorrect altitude related flooding were were deliberate, IMO, to highlight the frequent mathematical shortcomings.of many who follow the true faith.
Nice one AC:)
Oh come on, this is clearly satire. Unless of course it is a “Poe” http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Poe's_Law
in which case some of you have proved Poe’s Law.
Update. I think I just got blocked over there ??????