Like this one:
![britainAR[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/britainar1.png?quality=75)
Image from NOAA ESRL
From the Institute of Physics
Atmospheric rivers set to increase UK winter flooding
The prolonged heat wave that has bathed the UK in sunshine over the past month has given the country an unexpected taste of summer that has seemed to be missing in recent years.
However, a new study published today, 24 July, in IOP Publishing’s Environmental Research Letters, has provided warnings that will chime with those accustomed to more typical British weather.
According to the study, winter flooding in the UK is set to get more severe and more frequent under the influence of climate change as a result of a change in the characteristics of atmospheric rivers (ARs).
ARs are narrow regions of intense moisture flows in the lower troposphere of the atmosphere that deliver sustained and heavy rainfall to mid-latitude regions such as the UK.
They are responsible for many of the largest winter floods in the mid-latitudes and can carry extremely large amounts of water: the AR responsible for flooding in the northwest of the UK in 2009 transported 4500 times more water than the average flow in the River Thames in London.
The researchers, from the University of Reading and University of Iowa, found that large parts of the projected changes in AR frequency and intensity would be down to thermodynamic changes in the atmosphere, rather than the natural variability of the climate, suggesting that it is a response to anthropogenic climate change.
To reach these conclusions, the researchers used simulations from five state-of-the-art climate models to investigate how the characteristics of ARs may change under future climate change scenarios.
Firstly, they used the climate models to see how accurately they could simulate the ARs that occurred between 1980 and 2005. The five models did this successfully and were deemed capable of projecting how future ARs will develop under different scenarios.
The models were then used to simulate future conditions under two scenarios – RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 – that represent different, yet equally plausible, scenarios for future increases in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. They projected changes that would occur between 2074 and 2099.
Each of the five models simulated an increase in AR frequency. For the RCP8.5 projections, which represents stronger increases in greenhouse gas concentrations than RCP4.5, there was a striking level of consistency in the magnitude of change in AR frequency – all models showed an approximate doubling of the number of future ARs compared to the simulations for 1980 – 2005.
The models also projected an increase in intensity of the ARs, meaning an AR impacting the UK in the future is projected to deliver more moisture, potentially causing larger precipitation totals.
Lead author of the research, Dr David Lavers, said: “ARs could become stronger in terms of their moisture transport. In a warming world, atmospheric water vapour content is expected to rise due to an increase in saturation water vapour pressure with air temperature. This is likely to result in increased water vapour transport.
“The link between ARs and flooding is already well established, so an increase in AR frequency is likely to lead an increased number of heavy winter rainfall events and floods. More intense ARs are likely to lead to higher rainfall totals, and thus larger flood events.”
From Wednesday 24 July, this paper can be downloaded from http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/3/034010/article
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The usual water vapor increase in a warming world despite NOAA showing the opposite. EOM.
:” the AR responsible for flooding in the northwest of the UK in 2009 transported 4500 times more water than the average flow in the River Thames in London.”
can somebody help me out on this one?
Is this just another pathetic attempt to keep the green gravy train rolling?
Significant AR’s occurred in 1980 and 2005 and the next significant ones are predicted for 2074 an 2099?
All based on models and the figures above show the intellectual level these people have reached any decent researcher, if the figures were true, would have rounded up but of course this is indecent research. Boys with toys ( computers) who think the grown ups don’t understand their silly little games.
omnologos makes a valid point.
When reality shows that a prediction is always wrong, it means that the prediction is based on incorrect theoretical model.
In science we call this a systematic error and no amount of tinkering or re-runs will cure the problem.
I hate it when the IPCC climate scientists make up new words, like Forcings, or misunderstand the meaning of an established one, like Feedback, or create a new nonsense term like Atmospheric River. “Water vapor plume” is much more descriptive and carries much less false implications with it. Their “Atmospheric Rivers” don’t exist; they want to create the illusion that they know something when they don’t, and use their imaginary Atmospheric Rivers to explain away whatever comes their way. Despicable failures.
That model runs were consistent merely shows they share the same flawed postulated mechanisms.
Wayne Delbeke says:
July 23, 2013 at 8:22 pm
Wayne, the pineapple express is not quite the same thing and is very unpredictable until a few days before. The express is a secondary low forming on the periphery of a major low over mid-northern canada. Because said low is in the outer reaches of the low it’s speed is powered by the jet and te winds around the low.
‘projected changes ‘ are the best type of changes for you can always claim their ‘going to happen ‘ even while reality shows them to be BS , becasue there is a never ending supply of ‘going to’
In a warming world…..?
These deniers just don’t get it, do they?
Because of the Jet Stream, rain in England often means sunshine in Iceland, and sunshine in England rain in Iceland.
The recent weeks have been unusually wet here in south Iceland, while they have enjoyed the sun in Britain,
Now we have enjoyed a few sunny days after weeks of heavy rain. The jet stream foracast indicates that we may expect more sunny days here in the north.
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream;sess=
The dear Wet Office have of late been most pronounced in their observations of what the Jet Stream is or is not doing, in their meteorological musings, all done with an air of eminent knowledge! One tiny wee flaw…….they never seem to answer the obvious question, “What causes the jet stream to shift then?” As to the post above, well somebody said it ages ago, “X-Box 360 Lara Croft Fantasy World!”, only t seems to be getting worse! 😉
Please would these ‘scientists’ explain why a run of severe floods happened in the 1870s, since clearly they could not have been caused by AGW?
Please would those who believe in weather as a Fourier system of amplitudes and beats also explain why there cannot be a cyclical nature to ARs, just as there are to many other weather phenomena????
It can’t be cyclical because that would be caused by nature, and nature is good. And since floods are bad they can only be caused by humans, and we all know humanity is evil.
Bwwahh-hah-ah-ah!!!
“Scientists Discover Rivers in th Sky over England Four Times Larger Than The River Thames”
The joint paper was prepared by the University Of Rowing and University of Idiots. Their chief spokesman Professor Worsel Gummidge said this opens up all sorts of possibilities and with more grants we believe that by 2090. Olympic water sports will be taking place on these Rivers.
Bryan says:
July 24, 2013 at 12:01 am
omnologos makes a valid point.
When reality shows that a prediction is always wrong, it means that the prediction is based on incorrect theoretical model.
In science we call this a systematic error and no amount of tinkering or re-runs will cure the problem.
All you need is an invertor!
I suggest that 2013 in England is going to be warmer then 2012, and then we are going to have 3 colder years and a bit warmer one to follow.
How do I know that?
Because it happened about 270 years ago 🙂 🙂
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET1690-1960.htm
climate science is LOL.
According to the study, winter flooding in the UK is set to get more severe and more frequent under the influence of climate change as a result of a change in the characteristics of atmospheric rivers (ARs).
_______________________________________
Sorry, but that is nonsense.
The problem with our last three very cold winters in the UK, is that the jetstreams moved south into the Med, leaving the UK anticyclonic, cold and dryish conditions (there was a large snowfall in 2013, when a low tried to push into the Scandinavian anticyclone but was pushed back).
Thus the predicted ‘river of moisture’ (which created out traditionally wet winters) will probably benefit North Africa more than the UK – as it did during the Roman period when the province of Mauritania (N Africa) became a significant grain-growing area and very wealthy indeed (the biggest Roman bath in the Empire was/is in Tunisia). Although it has to be said that the recernt perennial poverty of that region (ie: over the last thousand years) has as much to do with the revised and regressive politics and economics of that region, as it does with the climate. (nb: The Christian Byzantine nations of N Africa all fell to ‘another regime’ back in the 8th – 9th centuries, and the region has never recovered from that tragedy.)
Thus the recent trend for the UK (if three years can be called a trend), has been towards dryer winters. I cannot find any historical averages. But I think you will find that for Jan-Feb-Mar, there has been a significant bias in the UK towards higher pressure, more easterly winds, and colder temperatures.
.
Bob says: July 23, 2013 at 7:05 pm
Omnologos: thanks for the discussion of the MET. You had my wife rolling with laughter.
_________________________
But the really sad thing about Omnologo’s levity (July 23, 2013 at 5:17 pm) is that everything he said is perfectly correct. Now that s a worry.
Or is it?
I was just thinking, perhaps the Med Office is not staffed by astrologers, but by ‘rain-dancing’ witch doctors who can really influence the weather. But these meteorological shamans are out of favor with the gods of climate, and so the gods always do the exact opposite of the rain-dance being performed. Thus all we need to do is get the Met Office to predict cold, wet summers for the next 20 years, and we shall have perfect summer weather. Job done…
Do I need a /sarc??
.
Didn’t the Met Office predict wetter UK summers? They say no and that the press had misinterpreted their hogwash.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/stand-by-for-another-decade-of-wet-summers-say-met-office-meteorologists-8663024.html
Remember the forecasted cooler, wetter summers for the UK? The results are in – the longest UK heatwave in 7 years! LOL. See Belcher from the Met Office ducking and diving, weaving and skirting.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2372011/UK-heatwave-2013-It-wet-How-Met-office-expert-convinced-heatwave-blip.html
Flooding in the UK has nothing to do with extra rain rather the increase of building on flood plain, increasing runoff, and the Environment Agency’s quiet admission that river dredging has been stopped due to lack of money.
If anyone takes the time to read Philip Eden’s excellent book on British weather will learn that past storms have exceeded those of today. All flash flooding areas have repeatedly experienced flash flooding with past events killing more people.
This report seems to be one of cherry picked data.
The empirical evidence suggests negative feedback from atmospheric H2O. All this threatening water in the atmosphere is just going to undo what CO2 has wrought. No worries.
I rather wish I had made an album of all the plaques showing the flood height since about 1600 that are in just about every seaside and riverside town in the UK. I used to be fascinated by them years ago but in those days of 35mm every picture had to be thought over because of the cost.
I also wonder how many of the floods are wholly or mainly caused by the trolleys dumped from bridges if the one that was cleared by the sub aqua club my work colleague belonged to is typical.
A.D. Everard says:
July 23, 2013 at 6:47 pm
“Either it’s in the ocean and not toying with us out here, in which case, there is no response to it in the atmosphere, or it’s not in the ocean, in which case – where’s the warming?”
Poltergeist warming. Only the effects can be seen, not the warming.
Worth remember that was only in the second world war that they relased there was even a ‘Jet Stream’ in the first place , what causes it to move it they still do not know . Although I wouldtake a good bet its bound to be ‘the fault of golbal warming’