Remarkable correlation of Arctic sea ice to solar cycle length

This is interesting, especially since Solar Cycle 23 was quite long.

The Hockey Schtick writes:

A paper published by the Danish Meteorological Institute finds a remarkable correlation of Arctic sea ice observations over the past 500 years to “the solar cycle length, which is a measure of solar activity. A close correlation (R=0.67) of high significance (0.5 % probability of a chance occurrence) is found between the two patterns, suggesting a link from solar activity to the Arctic Ocean climate.” The paper adds to several others demonstrating that Arctic sea ice extent and climate is controlled by natural variations in solar activity, ocean & atmospheric oscillations, winds & storm activity, not man-made CO2.

Figure 1.5 Solar Cycle Length [SCL] shown by dotted line, Koch sea ice extent index from observations in the Greenland Sea shown by solid line.
 The paper:

Multi-decadal variation of the East Greenland Sea-Ice Extent: AD 1500-2000

Knud Lassen and Peter Thejll

Abstract:

The extent of ice in the North Atlantic varies in time with time scales stretching to centennial, and the cause of these variations is discussed. We consider the Koch ice index which describes the amount of ice sighted from Iceland, in the period 1150 to 1983 AD. This measure of ice extent is a non-linear and curtailed measure of the amount of ice in the Greenland Sea, but gives an overall view of the amounts of ice there through more than 800 years. The length of the series allows insight into the natural variability of ice extent and this understanding can be used to evaluate modern-day variations. Thus we find that the recently reported retreat of the ice in the Greenland Sea  may be related to the termination of the so-called Little Ice Age in the early twentieth century. We also look at the approximately 80 year variability of the Koch [sea ice] index and compare it to the similar periodicity found in the solar cycle length, which is a measure of solar activity. A close correlation (R=0.67) of high significance (0.5 % probability of a chance occurrence) is found between the two patterns, suggesting a link from solar activity to the Arctic Ocean climate.

Conclusion:

In view of the large significance observed we suggest that the correlation of 0.67, between

multi-decadal modes in the Koch ice index and the solar cycle length, is indicative of a relationship not due to chance. The multi-decadal modes still represent only a small fraction of the total variance in the ice series, which illustrates that while the kind of solar activity characterised by the variable length of the solar cycle may cause some of the variability seen in the ice series, the majority is caused by other factors.

Whereas the multi-decal mode may be a result of varying solar activity, the cause of the slowly varying mode is not directly seen from the data presented here. Obviously, it must be due to a natural variation of the climate. A variation of similar shape may be recognised in the solar cycle length (Figure 1.5), but it has not been possible from the present data to deduce a correlation that is significant. Nevertheless, the similarity of the variation of the ice export through the Fram Strait and the smoothed variation of the solar cycle length shown in Figure 1.7 speaks in favour of the assumption that the solar cycle variation may include both natural modes. This conclusion is in accordance with the finding by Bond et al., 2001 (their Figure 2) that a persistent series of solar influenced millennial-scale variations, which include the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, reflect a baseline of the centennial-scale cycles.

Fram_strait-export_fig1-7
Figure 1.7: Variation of Ice export through the Fram Strait (in units of ) and smoothed
values of solar cycle length (SCL121) (heavy curve).

The ’low frequency oscillation’ that dominated the ice export through the Fram Strait as well as the extension of the sea-ice in the Greenland Sea and Davis Strait in the twentieth century may therefore be regarded as part of a pattern that has existed through at least four centuries. The pattern is a natural feature, related to varying solar activity. The considerations of the impact of natural sources of variability on arctic ice extent are of relevance for concerns that the current withdrawal of ice may entirely be due to human activity. Apparently, a considerable fraction of the current withdrawal could be a natural occurrence.

Full paper is here (PDF)

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Christian
July 19, 2013 6:28 am

Other_Andy
If A (ice) and B (solar output) are correlated, then I guess only 4 scenarios can be true.
1) A affects B
2) B affects A
3) A and B are both affected by C (unknown factor)
or
4) The correlation does not exist and the samples showing correlated only do so by pure chance.
I cannot imagine how earth (A and C) can effect Solar output leaving us with only two options:
Either the correlation is by chance OR the sun affects ice on Earth.
/C

Steve Keohane
July 19, 2013 6:45 am

u.k.(us) says:July 18, 2013 at 6:06 pm
[…]
The horizon is 3 miles away.
I’m sure I’m missing something ?

I have believed for years, perhaps wrongly, that the average horizon is 17 miles away, from 5-6 feet above ground/sea level.

Christian
July 19, 2013 7:20 am

Steve
i live by the sea. 3 miles sounds correct.
There are several islands nearby. The only one I can see is 5km away. I cannot see the one which is 10km away.

Maximu5
July 19, 2013 7:36 am

Could we have a graph showing not just the ice index vs solar cycles but add CO2 levels during that period to show the lack of correlation ?

beng
July 19, 2013 7:41 am

Don’t buy it — no physical reason why solar-cycle length affects sea-ice. Correlation w/o causation & curve-fitting.

Gail Combs
July 19, 2013 7:43 am

Manfred says: July 18, 2013 at 6:43 pm
….. One has to ask WHY this research wasn’t undertaken before the eco-socio-political love affair with GCM’s?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Because it was never ever about determining what causes changes in our climate.
The IPCC mandate states:

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988 to assess the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of human induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for mitigation and adaptation.
http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/

Humans were tried and found guilty BEFORE the IPCC ever looked at a single scientific fact. The IPCC mandate is not to figure out what factors effect the climate but to dig up the ‘facts’ needed to hang the human race. The IPCC assumes the role of prosecution and and the skeptics that of the defense but the judge (aka the media) refuses to allow the defense council into the court room.
Academia is providing the manufactured evidence to ‘frame’ the human race and they are KNOWINGLY doing so. In other words Academics who prides themselves as being ‘lofty socialists’ untainted by plebeian capitalism are KNOWINGLY selling the rest of the human race into the slavery designed by the bankers and corporate elite. (Agenda 21)

furyforever
July 19, 2013 8:04 am

beng says:
July 19, 2013 at 7:41 am
Don’t buy it — no physical reason why solar-cycle length affects sea-ice. Correlation w/o causation & curve-fitting.
——
Couldn’t agree more. Also, the paper was astonishingly lacks in establishing what the reason for the smoothing was in the solar length. That makes curve fitting even more suspicious.

Steve Keohane
July 19, 2013 8:14 am

Christian says:July 19, 2013 at 7:20 am
Checking on the math, it appears 3 miles is correct from 6 feet height.

Gail Combs
July 19, 2013 8:33 am

On the Stephen Wilde/ David Hoffer debate:
Hoffer points out the anti-correlation or bi-polar seesaw.
The major difference I see between the Arctic and Antarctic is the Arctic is a sea surrounded by land with narrow straits allowing warm water access from the North Atlantic Current (See: Vukcevic’s map)
The Antarctic on the other hand is land surrounded by an open sea except for Drake’s Passage
The theory is the start of the present Cenozoic Ice Age was caused by several major tectonic transformations, culminating in a minor, but crucial, event: the formation of the Isthmus of Panama about 3.5 MYA… So land configuration, mountains, the oceans and the sun all contribute to the present day climate and I would not expect the Arctic and Antarctic to mirror each other for that reason.
Vukcevic has gathered a lot of data on the geomagnetic field too. link ARCTIC and link ANTARCTIC

Steve Keohane
July 19, 2013 8:37 am

However, I don’t believe the math. Using the math in:
http://www.wikihow.com/Calculate-the-Distance-to-the-Horizon
that derive the 3 miles from a 6 foot observation height, I can compare observational evidence. Having lived on the front range in Colorado, I know I can, from the Wyoming border, see Pike’s Peak west of Colorado Springs, as if it were sitting level with the horizon, but it would be 150 miles away. I know from playing with telescopes years ago, there is an atmospheric effect that allows celestial objects to appear at the horizon when the object is as much as 10° below the physical horizon. Don’t recall the term for it, don’t know if it applies to earth-bound objects.

milodonharlani
July 19, 2013 8:47 am

Steve Keohane says:
July 19, 2013 at 8:37 am
Terrestrial refraction:
http://mintaka.sdsu.edu/GF/explain/atmos_refr/horizon.html

RACookPE1978
Editor
July 19, 2013 9:34 am

Gail Combs says:
July 19, 2013 at 8:33 am

On the Stephen Wilde/ David Hoffer debate:
Hoffer points out the anti-correlation or bi-polar seesaw.
The major difference I see between the Arctic and Antarctic is the Arctic is a sea surrounded by land with narrow straits allowing warm water access from the North Atlantic Current (See: Vukcevic’s map)
The Antarctic on the other hand is land surrounded by an open sea except for Drake’s Passage

Related to this difference between Antarctic and Arctic sea ice, and the differences between how difference influences may affect that difference!, is their location.
At sea ice minimum extents in today’s climate (1970-2013) ALL of the remaining Arctic sea ice at minimum extent in mid-September is concentrated in a tiny “beanie” between latitude 80 north and the pole. The edge of a 4.0 Mkm2 (million km squared) sea ice cap is at 79.8 latitude, of a 3.0 Mkm2 is at 81.2 latitude, 2 Mkm2 is at 82.8 lat, and 1.0 Mkm2 is up at 85 north. At these latitudes, there is only 25 to 75 watts of solar energy available – regardless of whether it is being reflected by sea ice or absorbed by open ocean water.
Thus, the loss (or gain) of Arctic sea ice at today’s sea ice minimum’s date does NOT heat the earth, and does NOT appear to be related to global atmospheric temperatures, since the loss of Arctic sea ice continues at the same rate while the earth’s temperature remains higher than 1970-1990 normal, but is NOT increasing, while CO2 continually increases. None of these factors limits or excludes some other factor affect Arctic sea ice extents that may be itself related to the length of successive solar cycles at the same time. 8<)
On the other hand, the edge of the Antarctic sea ice at today's world's sea ice maximum is at 61 south latitude. (On Jim Hansen's CAGW-flavored (favored ?) Mercator global projection, the edge of the Antarctic sea ice extents at maximum is a band stretching around the globe from the southern tip of Greenland across Canada, Alaska, the north Pacific, Siberia, Europe, and the Atlantic all the way up to the north pole. On his projection, on the other hand, today's Antarctic sea ice extents isn't even visible! But Greenland seems bigger than Australia, Brazil, and South Africa combined. No wonder he is so deathly frightened of the loss of Arctic ice.)
Anyway, at 61 south latitude, the edge of Antarctic sea ice IS far enough away from the pole that ITS reflection (albedo changes) on the earth's radiation balance IS important. The sun is not 2-8 degrees above the horizon, but 28 to 30 degrees above the horizon. The available solar energy (to be reflected or absorbed by the ocean or the sea ice) is not 25-50 watts/meter square but 250 to 450 watts/meter square. (The change depends on time-of-day.). Expressed differently, one square meter of Antarctic sea ice is – in today's world – ten times more important than 1 square meter of Arctic sea in calculating the earth's energy balance.
Worse, there is effectively no limit on how much larger Antarctic Sea maximums may grow: last year was 1 Mkm2 above previous records, but this year could be another 1 Mkkm2 above that, (or 2 or 2.5 above that), and 2015 may be another 2.0 Mkm2 above that, etc.
But in 2012, only 3.5 Mkm2 of Arctic sea was left. If we lose 1.0 Mkm2 of that in some future year, there will only be 2.5 Mkm2 left. If some alien from New York or Washington DC took all of the Arctic Sea ice away on September 15 of some year and moved it to Mars, there could never be a sea ice minimum smaller than 0.0 square meters. And, since a few more calculations show that open Arctic ocean water at these latitudes actually cool the ocean's surface rather than heat it, the continued loss of Arctic sea ice is actually a cooling effect on the earth's climate.
So, the gain of Antarctic sea ice cools the planet. The loss of Arctic sea ice (from today's minimum sea ice extents) cools the planet. The change in the average solar cycle length might influence some factor that might change either sea ice minimum or maximum extent – and might each end of the planet either way. We don't know enough to tell. Yet.
An analogy:
If you are measuring the height of the Mississippi river water near New Orleans each hour of each day of each year over a century, could you correct for the change in elevation of the soil as people pumped water and oil out from underneath the delta – if you didn't know when they were pumping water in and out of the ground? If you didn't know about the increased (or decreased) snow fall in the previous winter in Southern Canada and Montana and North Dakota and Kansas and Ohio and West Virginia , could you account for changes in elevation of the water during the spring floods over different years? If you didn't know about hurricanes in the Gulf Coast passing east, west, or directly over New Orleans, could you account for strange 2 day and 3 week long irregular high and low water levels in September, October, and August in different years? If you didn't know about the solar tide influence in the Gulf of Mexico and the Mississippi River delta, but tried to use a Nova Scotia tide table measured at the Gulf of Fundy, would you be more (or less!) accurate by trying to correct for high tide and low tide?
The theory (of a solar cycle length influencing Terran sea ice extents) might be completely correct (or completely missing!) or completely ignorant of some affect, and some resulting effect, that we know about in theory, but are applying improperly in practice at the wrong location at the right time. Or are applying at the right time but at the wrong location. Or don't know about at all yet.

Snowlover123
July 19, 2013 10:39 am

I think this section is of great importance to whether the correlation is legitimate, documenting a physical relationship, or if it’s just a correlation.
From the article:
“A close correlation (R=0.67) of high significance (0.5 % probability of a chance occurrence)”
A 0.5% probability of a chance occurrence is quite low. Thus, this is compelling evidence, in my opinion, that there is a discernible solar influence on the climate system.

ScotA
July 19, 2013 10:49 am

Skepticism in science isn’t a tool for rejecting the hypotheses of others. It’s a tool for constantly questioning one’s own belief so as to uncover error. Religious zealots are perfectly skeptical of the claims of every other religion while remaining certain their view is correct. This doesn’t make them scientists. More than once have advances in understanding had to wait because authorities were certain of their own understanding while being skeptical of challenging theories. Any challenging theory that predicts as well as an established theory should be given equal consideration, whether or not a mechanism is understood. Experiment and observation only rule out theories that are inconsistent with reality. Theories are not ruled out just because we can’t yet completely articulate a model.

July 19, 2013 11:04 am

Gail Combs says: July 19, 2013 at 8:33 am
…….
Thanks for drawing attention to some of my graphic illustrations.
Link between solar activity and changes in the Earth magnetic field is a bit of a mystery. Obviously change is at the bottom of ‘food chain’ with the Earth in the middle, kind of a ‘dishonest broker’ fiddling the solar script to its moods.
Hence we may never have an exact climate mechanism or correlation to either solar or geomagnetic variability.
When climate scientists realise that two are ‘joined at hip’ than we may get somewhere:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/GSC1.htm
It is time that the Svalgaards of this world realise when they come of their ‘high horse’ they may have to step in a pile of manure, and even Bucephalus or Marengo generated loads of it daily.

AJB
July 19, 2013 11:16 am
July 19, 2013 11:43 am

Gail Combs says: July 19, 2013 at 8:33 am
…….
Thanks for drawing attention to some of my graphic illustrations.
Link between solar activity and changes in the Earth magnetic field is a bit of a mystery. Obviously change is at the bottom of ‘food chain’ with the Earth in the middle, kind of a ‘dishonest broker’ fiddling the solar script to its moods.
Hence we may never have an exact climate mechanism or correlation to either solar or geomagnetic variability.
When climate scientists realise that only when two are put together than we may get somewhere:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/GSC1.htm
It is time that the Svalgaards of this world realise when they come of their ‘high horse’ they may have to step in a pile of manure, and even Bucephalus or Marengo generated loads of it daily.

Justthinkin
July 19, 2013 12:09 pm

Oh come on. You ALL have it wrong. It is the fluctuation of those millions of degrees at the Earth’s core.

Gail Combs
July 19, 2013 12:21 pm

RACookPE1978 says: July 19, 2013 at 9:34 am ……..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I think you are correct. The Arctic is the Red Flag waved in everyone’s face but I do not think it is the key, more a red herring. If you add together what E.M. Smith came up with on Drake’s Passage with all of Bob Tisdale’s work on ENSO you come up with this:
Stronger winds warming Antarctica? (Link removed new link) “…Stronger westerly winds around Antarctica are increasing eddy activity in the Southern Ocean and consequently may be driving more heat southward across the formidable Antarctic Circumpolar Current – the world’s largest current….” The Antarctic Circumpolar Current flows from west to east around Antarctica. What they forget to mention is thanks to Drake’s Passage at the tip of South America you get cold water from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current shooting up the coast of South America. This map from the Natural Environment Research Council shows the current going in the wrong direction but you can see the tongue heading up along South America. (These guys want us to trust them on climate when they can even get the current direction correct???)
That takes us to this Sea Surface Anomalies 21 December 2010 map clearly showing the cold water being diverted up along the South American coast and Bob Tisdale takes it from there.
There are a few nuggets in this report among all the propaganda.

State of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate System
Executive Summary
This Information Paper provides a review of the key developments over the past two years in our understanding of Antarctic climate and the role of the Antarctic climate system in the global climate system. It comments on the findings of the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that relate to the Antarctic….
Antarctica and the Southern Ocean play a major role in the Earth’s climate system….
Modern climate in the region results from the interplay of the ice sheet – ocean – sea ice – atmosphere system and its response to past and present climate forcing…..
While ice is being lost from glaciers in the Peninsula and in West Antarctica, East Antarctica shows much less ice loss.
Consistent with global warming, the Antarctic troposphere has warmed while the stratosphere has cooled. Part of the reason for stratospheric cooling is ozone depletion.
Cooling of the stratosphere appears to have encouraged the development of polar stratospheric clouds, which may have exacerbated ozone depletion.
The atmospheric pressure gradient between mid latitudes and Antarctica has steepened over the past 50 years, intensifying the westerlies over the Southern Ocean,
and warming the Antarctic Peninsula; this change in pressure and wind has had no significant effect as yet on temperature in East Antarctica, which remains cool.
The upper kilometer of the circumpolar Southern Ocean has warmed, as have the densest components of Antarctic Bottom Water in the Weddell Sea.
The coastal ocean has freshened between the Ross Sea and the Southern Indian Ocean, making the Antarctic Bottom Water formed there less saline.
Since the early 1970s sea ice has reduced west of the Antarctic Peninsula, and in the Weddell Sea. These decreases are balanced by an increase in the Ross Sea….
http:/www.scar.org/treaty/atcmxxx/Atcm30_ip005_e.pdf‎

Paul Vaughan
July 19, 2013 12:25 pm

The tachometer in a car is a useful global indicator of the rate of coupled mechanical processes regardless of (a) what gear the car is in and (b) whether the car is turning, ascending, or descending.
Cease the obfuscation.

Brian H
July 19, 2013 11:32 pm

James A.;
Did Attenborough even know which pole he was approaching? Polar bears and Antarctic ice floes are unacquainted.

Kajajuk
July 19, 2013 11:57 pm

James Allison says:
July 18, 2013 at 6:14 pm
————————————-
Only watch those greenie communists for the purdy pictures, yo.
Other wise the propaganda will give you a sense of unease; when every thing is fine…”sunshine, lollipops, and rainbows everywhere”
Just look at some of the bleeding heart suckers….they should just get a haircut and get a real job!

The industry believes that the wells are safe and do not affect the aquifers, why else would there be the “hal1burt0n loophole” if there was any danger to people and habitats….sheesh.

The whiners bleat about wiping out all the fish, fauna and flora from a lake that was only in the way of easy car drives though the region…ya right it not like anything went extinct or anything. Besides if a creature disappears without a latin name did it ever really exist anyways.
I could do this for days; just a couple more…

Here the greenies are whining about the collapse of Meech lake in 4 years…i mean come on…just because half of Americans do not believe in Darwinism doesn’t mean it shouldn’t apply to Los Vegas…

It is great that excess plastic builds up in the oceans, just think about how easy it will be harvest it instead of digging up landfill…as if this long term storage could negatively effect the ocean habitats; it’s not like it could collapse or anything

Steve Oregon
July 20, 2013 11:05 am

Hoover Dam/Lake Mead water level appears to be recovering.
It’s 16 feet higher today than in 2010.
http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/hourly/mead-elv.html

July 20, 2013 12:27 pm

Also note that the report did not claim a correlation over the entire period.
“We only use the years where the SCL(1,2,1) index is well defined – namely 1558-1625 and 1695-1980.” (http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/sr05-02.pdf page 9)
It did not include Solar Cycle 23 (or 22 or 21) or much of the Maunder Minimum

Paul Vaughan
July 20, 2013 8:05 pm