This can’t be good:
In last 24 hrs, correspondence w 3 multi decade members of The American Meteorological Society, we all quit due to AMS position on #climate
— Tim Kelley NBC10 Boston (@TimNBCBoston) June 21, 2013
It gets worse:
Officers of American Meteorological Society writing position papers based on dogma, not science. Members not allowed to disagree #climate
— Tim Kelley NBC10 Boston (@TimNBCBoston) June 21, 2013
h/t to Steve Milloy
Given the threat to unleash the EPA on coal-fired electricity generation it needs to be publicized that change to the level of atmospheric CO2 has had no significant effect on average global temperature.
This is demonstrated at http://climatechange90.blogspot.com/2013/05/natural-climate-change-has-been.html . This paper presents a simple equation that calculates average global temperatures since they have been accurately measured world wide (about 1895) with an accuracy of 90%, irrespective of whether the influence of CO2 is included or not. The equation uses a single external forcing, a proxy that is the time-integral of sunspot numbers. A graph is included which shows the calculated temperature anomaly trajectory overlaid on measurements.
All changes not explicitly considered must find room in the unexplained 10%.
More power to the members, these organizations are easily hijacked, just as universities and trade unions are.
The best recourse of all free men is to abandon institutions they can not stomach.
The new concern troll did a fine diversion of this thread, guess don’t feed the troll needs repeated.
We live in interesting times, far too many “learned societies, charities, Qangos & so on are in the hands of delusional followers.
A good example of this is the decline in volunteerism. When you turn out to provide your skills and labour for free to further a public good, but find the organization in the hands of time wasting nitwits, who seem to delight in preventing any work being done, what is your reaction?
My rule now is no volunteering if govt involved.I can waste my own time far more productively.
I have begun to suspect that this take over and destruction of organizations of the common good, is deliberate and designed to destroy the cooperation that binds society.
This tool, the internet, should be a fine way to reach all members of the AMS, who doubt and mobilize a change or lose our money ultimatum.After all each member knows 3 or 4 others and a viral network grows quickly.
Sherry says:
June 22, 2013 at 9:20 am
“First off even if this was true; which is probably isn’t because we have no names of the said people or statements from them, there are 14000 professionals in the AMS!!! The guy running this page doesn’t even have a climate degree! Look at his about section. You people are gullible as hell.”
James Hansen has no climate degree. Neither has Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. The gullible is you because you believe that climate scientist’s computer programs are capable of predicting the future of the climate. They failed already. For the last 17 years there has been no warming yet the models predicted warming over this time. It’s a failure. The scientists, if we want to call them that, now need to shut up and come up with better models. When they return with such, we need to validate the models at least for a decade before we can place any trust in the new models. This should have been done in the first place. It is how science works. Climate scientists want us to trust them without ever having gotten anything right. This trust is misplaced.
And to be honest I’d fire all of them and make them an Enron style process.
Think about using Computer modeling that attempt to predict future events by looking at past events . . if this could be done accurately the inventor would own the entire world in a few weeks of trading on the Stock markets . . but as we all know the Computer trading just allowed of more an quicker errors in judgement. They went so fast the models collapsed the markets and panic selling set in on automatic.
Is this not the same event we see unfolding with the Climate or Weather prediction a unknown data set processing at super computer speeds massive amount of data from Buoys around the world. Then they say well it is changing – duh we have know that for all of recorded history – last 5,000 or 6,000 years.
milodonharlani says:
June 22, 2013 at 11:52 am
Huh?
You just managed to smear an entire group of people with an unsubstantiated statement. I expect better from you. My response:
1. Not the people I know.
2. Many of the “contracted fire-fighters” are wildland-trained individuals who normally volunteer their time for free to their local fire departments—many of which are self-governed so-called special districts here in Colorado, formed as divisions of local government. You’d encounter a very civic-minded set among them if you’d meet any.
3. Well, by definition most wildfires start small. However, also by definition, the recent windland fires in the populated areas of Colorado that were declared federal fires, e.g. the Fourmile Canyon Fire, the Waldo Canyon Fire, the High Park Fire and the Black Forest Fire, became very large by the time they were federalized. Until additional county or federal resources are called in, the first responders are typically volunteers from local fire departments, who by definition have a vested interest in putting out the fires because it threatens their homes. If the fires are not caught early and the local resources get overwhelmed, they get big on their own without any help of your suggested vested interests.
4. The federal firefighting organization is by definition a large bureaucratic entity with its own budget, its legal and political underpinning, its own culture and also its problems. It exists and operates at the difficult interface of division of power between local, state and federal governments. However, there are plenty of wildland fires every season without anyone’s help.
5. You could say the same thing about any professional group of people: policemen would have a vested interest in worse crimes, servicemen in more destructive wars, doctors in deadlier diseases, etc. You know it would make no sense as a blanket statement.
6. There are bad apples in every trade or profession.
7. Most of the good people I know personally have heard such stuff before and would just ignore it. There are also people I have not met but who I know went through hell and came back; firefighters who nearly died and saw others die. It stands to reason anyone’d be better off to not make similar suggestions to them in person.
Colorado Wellington says:
June 22, 2013 at 2:09 pm
————————————-
You’re right I didn’t substantiate, but I’ve witnessed & experienced the fact of my statement repeatedly. But you rightly ask for documentation as to contractors:
http://articles.latimes.com/1994-08-30/news/mn-32792_1_forest-fire
One reason the USFS took out all its lookout towers was so that fires would get bigger before detection. Like all bureaucracies, the Forest Service wants to keep its budget growing every year. Having built all the roads it can, it needs to beef up other areas.
When prescribed burns were forced on them, they made sure that those fires got out of control, too. Same thing happened with the US Park Service in Yellowstone in 1988.
jai mitchell,
Please read carefully:
98% of computer models said the world should have warmed in the last 15 years.
2% of computer models & observations show that the computer consensus model is wrong.
An appeal to authority is the last refuge of the rogue. Even if 6.5 billion people believe in unicorns it doesn’t make them right.
Anthony, you can delete my reply to Jai if you feel it necessary but I think we have to deal head on with these people no matter tobacco, oil or what. Here is my reply.
Jai, here is a small part that tobacco has played in the climate change fight.
The BBC Pension fund, as at 31 March 2012, had investments in the following tobacco companies:
British American Tobacco
Imperial Tobacco
Reynolds American
Altria Group
Philip Morris International
Al Gore, the climate change campaigner, has been quoted in 1996 by the New York Times saying:
Earlier in the same article the New York Times said:
—
In 2007 the Union of Concerned Scientists issued a report called “ExxonMobil’s Tobacco-like Disinformation Campaign on Global Warming Science”.
The Union of Concerned Scientists has in the past received funding from the Grantham Foundation, which is bankrolled by hedge-fund manager Jeremy Grantham. At the time of the funding the foundation had holdings in tobacco giant Philip Morris. In August of 2011 his fund owned millions of shares in fossil fuel companies such as Exxon Mobil.
—
One of the founders of the wildlife and climate campaigning WWF is Dr. Anton Rupert. The now deceased Dr. Rupert made his fortune from the cigarette manufacturing company called Voorbrand, re-named Rembrandt, now consolidated into Rothmans.
Ref: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/1508360/Anton-Rupert.html
H/t
http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/tag/tobacco/
milodonharlani says:
June 22, 2013 at 2:50 pm
Ernest Earl Ellison, a transient in a depressed northern California town, was sentenced to 15 ½ months for setting hillside fires during 1992-93 near Hayfork in Trinity National Forest to help his brother’s water tanker business and make some small change himself. The largest fire was 20 acres, two smaller ones at 2 acres and all were contained quickly.
A 20-year old case and not exactly the “contracted fire-fighter” I’d have in mind and not quite firefighters “letting small fires get big” but OK.
At least we can both agree that Ernest Earl Ellison did not claim that increased levels of carbon dioxide made him do it and no AMS members will quit over our stance on this.
Sherry says:
June 22, 2013 at 9:20 am
Oh! For Heavens sake! Will all you sad ar$ed trolls please go jump off a cliff ! Join your alarmist lemming friends if you wish, but you are wasting your time commenting here with such crass and puerile statements! (sorry mods, but patience is getting a little thin now)
Colorado Wellington says:
June 22, 2013 at 4:36 pm
————————————
Yes, we can be thankful for that, but the incident was 20 years ago. Note however the comment in the story that the practice was regarded as common then. It still is.
Maybe your fire-fighting friends would want to punch me out, but mine are the main source of my knowledge of USFS practices, since I no longer fight wildfires myself. My two best friends are present & former public & private forest fire fighters who have worked throughout the West & assure me that the same malfeasance we know of here in Oregon happen everywhere in the region. I can’t comment on the East, where an even higher share of wildfires are caused by arson, out of whatever motive.
As a Coloradan, you’re no doubt aware of the cause of the Hayman Fire, which used to be your state’s most destructive. Among its victims were five of my fellow Oregonian firefighters.
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/06/19/national/19FIRE.html
Her neighbors doubted USFS employee Barton’s story about burning a letter. They suspected that she didn’t want to be shipped out of state to fight fires in order to stay home with her daughters, so intentionally set one during a no-burn period & zone.
There’s no reason why you should credit an anonymous blog commenter, but it’s common knowledge among firefighters in the Pacific NW & California that USFS personnel & contractors set fires, & that the Forest Service lets little fires get big. Last year a directive went out to stop doing that, but we’ll see.
I sometimes wonder what the CRU emails look like today. What are they sending each other? What are they saying about the temperature hiatus? One can only speculate but they are certainly worried.
Ref.
Dr. Paul Jones, Dr. Travesty et. al.
PS: The new order from on high blamed global warming for the change from letting little, naturally-set fires burn to stepping on any & all that might run away out of control. But the real reason is probably budgetary, with sequestration looming.
Jimbo says:
June 22, 2013 at 4:58 pm
Dr. Travesty came up with a travesty of a way to explain the flat line, his own version of hide the decline in Davey (aka Paul) Jones’ locker.
Jimbo says:
June 22, 2013 at 4:58 pm
I sometimes wonder what the CRU emails look like today.
============
Obama knows……………..
I konw it’s not right to try and tell Anthony how to run his pages – but with regard to Jai in moderation – my thoughts are ‘sod it !’ – and ‘let the blighter hang himself!’. Seriously, these kind of muppets do more FOR the skeptic movement than any advertising campaign or careful reposts – simply by showing their obvious ignorance. The best bit is that when these (likely paid?) trolls pass by – they are clearly seen to be inadequate on the actual science – and for that, we (the skeptics) should be truly grateful.
milodonharlani says:
June 22, 2013 at 4:52 pm
You are right, 10 years later there seems to be even more doubt about why and how Terry Barton started the Hayman Fire. She clearly acted as an individual but she is not telling:
http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_20769983/decade-after-hayman-fire-questions-linger-about-fires
And I remember the 5 very young firefighters from Oregon and Idaho that died in a van rollover accident on I-70 near Parachute. Several others were seriously injured if I recollect right.
On your other subject, I understand how bureaucracies function. There was the March 2012 Colorado State Forest Service prescribed burn—in hindsight incredibly stupid given the wind strength forecast—that resulted in the perfect storm of the deadly Lower North Fork Fire *).
I have not heard any other talk or rumors about USFS or anyone else intentionally starting fires near the populated areas of Colorado’s Front Range.
I suspected you knew more than you originally mentioned. Maybe you are better plugged in. Let’s see how this keeps unfolding.
Oh, and my firefighting friends would probably not want to punch you out. They are a pretty level-headed bunch.
*) “They were skilled professionals doing state of the art implementation,” Governor Hickenloooper said.
http://kdvr.com/2012/04/16/lower-north-fork-fire-report-big-changes-needed-for-prescribed-burns/
Colorado Wellington says:
June 22, 2013 at 5:58 pm
Forest management is woefully under-reported & misreported, since few if any journalists know anything about it. Which is not surprising, since most forestry grads don’t either.
Logging on USFS land is almost a thing of the past & grazing is on its way out, with fewer acres leased every year. I supported roadless Wilderness Areas, but not the way that the USFS chose vindictively to manage them, & now whole national forests are being run practically as “wilderness”, at least on those with which I’m most familiar, the Umatilla, Wallowa-Whitman, Malheur, Ochoco, Deschutes, Willamette & Mt. Hood.
milodonharlani says:
June 22, 2013 at 6:11 pm
Yes.
jai mitchell says:
June 21, 2013 at 1:32 pm
“http://www.ametsoc.org/policy/2012climatechange.html
There is unequivocal evidence that Earth’s lower atmosphere, ocean, and land surface are warming”
I thought the warming was missing, and allegedly just found deep in the ocean.
there are 14,000 members in AMS. 3 dropped out.
How do you know three dropped out? Certainly there was a group of three last week, but there have been a lot of weeks lately. (About 52 a year, from what I understand.) Tim Kelley held the AMS TV broadcaster Seal of Approval, see http://www.ametsoc.org/memdir/seallist/get_listoftv.cfm
I don’t understand how they count them, they note at the top that there are “Total Active TV Seals 614, *** = Retired [43], * = Deceased [36], ** = Not Active (Renewal not received) [664], **** = Not Active (Professional Development Portfolio not submitted) [53].” However, seal numbers go beyond 1800.
The total membership figure includes various non-meteorologsts. My father was a member for a while in the 1970s, but hadn’t done any meteorology since WW II.
I’m sure a lot of the 664 non-renewals are from people who’ve left the TV business, but there’s likely several who disagree with with AMS policy.
Here’s a name we all recognize – Anthony Watts [676] ***
Do any of the former or current members see any reasons to suspect the AMS has committed some form of fraud against its members by misrepresentations of the membership rights at the same time it solicited membership and other funds from the members? For example, did the AMS represent the membership fees entitled a member to a member participation that is now being denie with respect to the AMS promotion of a Global Warming–Climate Change fraud?
?
[snip . . mod]
Guess Calgary not your place today, Anthony? To many scary facts and so on 🙂
Joe says:
June 21, 2013 at 2:13 pm
Then again, both Christianity and Islam (between them over half the world’s population) believe in predestination.
I believe in post destination. You will know where you were going after you get there.