Does the Pacific Decadal Oscillation have predictive skill for global temperature?

kadaka (KD Knoebel)
I believe that you would have made an excellent consultant to the Inquisition of the Catholic Church in 1616 under Pope Paul V.
If you put your resume in quickly you might get a job on the Front Bench of the Inquisition of Pope Urban VIII.

Manfred says: @ur momisugly June 5, 2013 at 7:20 pm
….Some recently came up with the idea, that heat is currently sequestered into the deep ocean and will return and drive temperatures up in a couple of years or decades….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Which is a load of bovine feces.
1. CO2 lags temperature by about 800 years. link
2. NOAA: The global ocean conveyor belt is a constantly moving system of deep-ocean circulation driven by temperature and salinity… It takes almost 1,000 years for the conveyor belt to complete one “cycle.”
3. Medieval Warm period: A flurry of recent scientific papers has tried to measure the warmth of the “Medieval Warm Period” (MWP) of about 1,000 years ago…. papers such as Evidence of a Medieval Warm Period in Antarctica and Evidence for a ‘Medieval Warm Period’ in a 1,100 year tree-ring reconstruction of past austral summer temperatures in New Zealand
4. A new paper titled High-resolution sea surface reconstructions off Cape Hatteras over the last 10 ka discussion at WUWT

ABSTRACT
This study presents high-resolution foraminiferal-based sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity and upper water column stratification reconstructions off Cape Hatteras, a region sensitive to atmospheric and thermohaline circulation changes associated with the Gulf Stream… We observed opposite evolutions between the conditions off Cape Hatteras and those south of Iceland, known today for the North Atlantic Oscillation pattern. We interpret the temperature and salinity changes in both regions as co-variation of activities of the subtropical and subpolar gyres….We demonstrate, for the 5.2–3.5 ka period, that the salinity increase was caused by the cessation of the low salinity surface flow coming from the north. A northward displacement of the Gulf Stream, blocking the southbound low-salinity flow, concomitant to a reduced Meridional Overturning Circulation is the most likely scenario. Finally, wavelet transform analysis revealed a 1000-year period pacing the δ18O signal over the early Holocene. This 1000-year frequency band is significantly coherent with the 1000-year frequency band of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) between 9.5 ka and 7 ka and both signals are in phase over the rest of the studied period.

Willis,
Here is a definition of PDO:
“A PDO definition
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO, is often described as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability (Zhang et al. 1997). As seen with the better-known El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), extremes in the PDO pattern are marked by widespread variations in Pacific Basin and North American climate. In parallel with the ENSO phenomenon, the extreme phases of the PDO have been classified as being either warm or cool, as defined by ocean temperature anomalies in the northeast and tropical Pacific Ocean.
Two main characteristics distinguish the PDO from ENSO. First, typical PDO “events” have shown remarkable persistence relative to that attributed to ENSO events – in this century, major PDO eras have persisted for 20 to 30 years (Mantua et al. 1997, Minobe 1997). Second, the climatic fingerprints of the PDO are most visible in the North Pacific/North American sector, while secondary signatures exist in the tropics – the opposite is true for ENSO. Several independent studies find evidence for just two full PDO cycles in the past century (e.g. Mantua et al. 1997, Minobe 1997): cool PDO regimes prevailed from 1890-1924 and again from 1947-1976, while warm PDO regimes dominated from 1925-1946 and from 1977 through (at least) the mid-1990′s. Recent changes in Pacific climate suggest a possible reversal to cool PDO conditions in 1998, an issue that is discussed in more detail at the end of this article.”
We all should have reason to question any SST older than 40 years ago as sampling is sparse, one of the big contributors to WUWT Bob Tisdale agrees with this as do many other scientist. For you to say “Well, if you look at the full record, the correlation is worse … but I don’t think you realize what you are doing.” We are for intents and purposes looking at most of the record. In a paper I wrote for school in ’10, I used the correlation of PDO back to 1880 to demonstrate trends in GMT, in my paper I used a lag of average 8 years, the author of this paper is using 5 years, albeit opposite direction as me. From 1880, till present, there is a high correlation of PDO to temp, like I said eye-balling it high 70′s.
Prior to reading this article, I had always felt that the phase change was within (after) 8 years of temps change, so that is where I ran with the correlation. Looking at this data and seeing the graphs now shows that it looks like, PDO changes and approx a year later temps follow, the change you do not see is the phase change around 1942 graphically PDO (1947 Mantua) and temps HADCRUT4 1945 was about 3 years.
So the question becomes could PDO be a climate driver? Some scientist believe that PDO is driven by ocean current oscillations and that a ‘strong’/ cool PDO is caused by upwelling of deeper colder pacific water. While, ‘weaker’/ warm PDO is less up-welling, similar to El Nino/ La Nina just on a longer time scale (months as compared to decades). We all know that a large body water can cause local weather to be enhanced by the temp of that water, growing up in Eastern Mass, we would head out to the beach when it was scorching in my backyard, about 10 miles from the water. The last turn to “Nantaskett’ beach you sometimes got a rude awakening, fog and temps dropping 20 degrees within a mile. So the question remains, can a body of water as large as the Pacific, change the weather/ climate of a large portion of the globe. Certainly Mantua believes so, http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~mantua/REPORTS/PDO/PDO_cs.htm.
I do agree with you, I have alot to learn, that might be why I am enrolled in a Applied Meteorology program (could not find an adequate Atmospheric sciences course 100% online). I do need more understanding of statistics, I wish I could work with data at the level you do, give me a couple years you will see a marked improvement on my posts. Thanks to you also for your informative posts, I enjoy them greatly.

The PDO index reflects the degree to which observed SSTs across the entire N. Pacific resemble a reference pattern (that pattern was derived in an EOF analysis). The pattern is basically an east-west see-saw, and the PDO index has large negative values when the N. Pacific is both warmer than average in the western N. Pacific and colder than average along the Pacific coast, the situation we currently have. Does anyone really think that a pattren of more colder water along our west coast than in the western Pacific will have no effect on our west coast temperatures or the weather that blows in from the Pacific. Of course it will.
A more negative PDO index is typically a result of both more negative SST anomalies in the NE Pacific in combination with more positive SST anomalies in the central north Pacific.
It is possible that this changing pattern of SST in the North Pacific together with the AMO temperature pattern in the North Atlantic can and does have a significant impact on North American weather and temperatures , which in turn and via air circulations cross the Atlantic and will affect Europe as well . So it is quite possible in my judgment that PDO index can have predictive value for global temperatures.

From a PNAS paper by G.j McCabe et al called PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC OCEAN INFLUENCES ON MULTIDECADAL DROUGHT FREQUENCYIN UNITED S ATES [2004
Abstract
More than half (52%) of the spatial and temporal variance in multidecadal drought frequency over the conterminous United States is attributable to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An additional 22% of the variance in drought frequency is related to a complex spatial pattern of positive and negative trends in drought occurrence possibly related to increasing Northern Hemisphere temperatures or some other unidirectional climate trend. Recent droughts with broad impacts over the conterminous U.S. (1996, 1999-2002) were associated with North Atlantic warming (positive AMO) and northeastern and tropical Pacific cooling (negative PDO). Much of the long-term predictability of drought frequency may reside in the multidecadal behavior of the North Atlantic Ocean. Should the current positive AMO (warm North Atlantic) conditions persist into the upcoming decade, we suggest two possible drought scenarios that resemble the continental-scale patterns of the 1930s (positive PDO) and 1950s (negative PDO) drought.

@rgbatduke
I agree heartily with your enumeration of things we don’t know. It is extremely strange to observe the disconnect between the absolutely daunting complexity of the climate and the notion of supposedly settled science that still dominates the public’s perception.
As to your question: Why is it so very difficult to say “we don’t know?” That is psychology — we would be admitting defeat. Species did not advance in evolution by admitting defeat, and acceptance of defeat is shunned equally by human instincts and the human mind. This does, of course, produce deplorable results. Francis Bacon said it well:

Those who have taken upon them to lay down the law of nature as a thing already searched out and understood, … have therein done philosophy and the sciences great injury. For as they have been successful in inducing belief, so they have been effective in quenching and stopping inquiry.

His words remain true even in our supposed age of enlightenment. When I was at med school, the supposed cause of ulcers was stress, and an entire cathedral full of psychosomatic pontification had been erected around this supposition. Against this fortified position, it was an uphill battle for the truth — the real cause of ulcers is a pesky bacterium, Helicobacter pylori. Why should rational climate scientists have it any easier than Marshall and Warren, the two brave Aussie champions of this humble bug …
BTW I just set another bad example … I really don’t know the answer to the question, so I made it up 😉

duster
the PDO index tracks a pattern of SST anomalies that, when it is cold in the western and central part of the N. Pacific, and warm in the eastern part of the N. Pacific, the index has positive values and is negative when the pattern is opposite to the above, The question that this track asks is whether changes in these patterns are of predictive value in predicting changes to global temperatures as well . Those who have observed and analyzed the index and the global temperatures say that they have noted the relationship to be of value even though the connection is not fully yet explained or appreciated.. I tend to agree . . The key is that pdo is an index of pattrens and not a direct tempertaure index. Because this pattern seems to have a somewhat of a repetitive nature recently [ 30 years positive and 30 years negative] , it is currently heading down[negative since 2007] and may trough by about 2030. Is this indicating that global climate will do the same and trough as well ?. Maybe. Global temperatures peaked about 2000-2010 and are heading down.[ see recent posts on this]

@ur momisugly Girma (June 6, 2013 at 7:01 am)
It’s a very well known result:
https://pantherfile.uwm.edu/kravtsov/www/downloads/Presentations2010-2011/AMO_AGU10.pdf
I sure hope you didn’t overlook something that simple.