By Paul Homewood
I have deliberately held off running this post for a day or two, partly because I felt it inappropriate to do so earlier, and also because I wanted to wait until the facts became clearer.
NWS have now officially declared the tornado that hit Moore, Oklahoma on Monday as an EF-5, the highest category, which is given when wind speeds are estimated to be over 200 mph. The current estimate for this tornado is 200-210 mph.
Latest estimates are that 24 people have died, although this figure may rise.
NOAA’s Environmental Visualisation Laboratory gave an ominous warning, earlier that day, of what was to come :-
May 20, 2013
Converging Air Masses Makes for a Rough Day in the Central Plains
Cold, dry air sweeping down from Canada mixing with warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean are merging in the U.S. Plains today, creating conditions for some very turbulent weather. A tornado outbreak today in the early morning hours caused destruction in Kansas and Oklahoma. This image shows the air temperature at 40,000 Pascals (about 23,000 feet high in the atmosphere) using data outputs from the NOAA North America Model for 2100z on May 20, 2013, combined with an overlay of the winds at the same elevation. Tornadoes typically occur at the convergence of these two different air masses. A distinct boundary of “cold meeting warm” is visible in this temperature data, extending from Texas into Illinois.
http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail2.php?MediaID=1349&MediaTypeID=1
Unfortunately, EF-5 tornadoes occur only too frequently. This latest is the 59th recorded since 1950, so on average about one every year.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/f5torns.html
The full list is in Appendix A, but Figure 1 shows that these strongest tornadoes were more common in the colder climate of 1950-80.
Figure 1
Many tornadoes, of course, pass through relatively empty farmland, and don’t lead to the damage and loss of life that this one did. Nevertheless, there have been 27 tornadoes since 1970 that have caused more than 20 fatalities, so, on average, it is, unfortunately, the sort of tragedy we can expect to see nearly every year.
I cannot finish without saying how utterly disgusted I am by those who have chosen to make political capital out of human suffering, such as Senator Boxer. What they have done is pure evil. She and the rest should be ashamed of themselves.
APPENDIX A – F5/EF5 TORNADOES SINCE 1950
================================================= NUMBER DATE LOCATION ====== ===================== =========================== 59 May 20, 2013 Moore OK 58 May 24, 2011 El Reno/Piedmont OK 57 May 22, 2011 Joplin MO 56 April 27, 2011 Rainsville/Sylvania AL 55 April 27, 2011 Preston MS 54 April 27, 2011 Hackleburg/Phil Campbell AL 53 April 27, 2011 Smithville MS 52 May 25, 2008 Parkersburg IA 51 May 4, 2007 Greensburg KS 50 May 3, 1999 Bridge Creek/Moore OK 49 April 16, 1998 Waynesboro TN 48 April 8, 1998 Oak Grove/Pleasant Grove AL 47 May 27, 1997 Jarrell TX 46 July 18, 1996 Oakfield WI 45 June 16, 1992 Chandler MN 44 April 26, 1991 Andover KS 43 August 28, 1990 Plainfield IL 42 March 13, 1990 Goessel KS 41 March 13, 1990 Hesston KS 40 May 31, 1985 Niles OH 39 June 7, 1984 Barneveld WI 38 April 2, 1982 Broken Bow OK 37 April 4, 1977 Birmingham AL 36 June 13, 1976 Jordan IA 35 April 19, 1976 Brownwood TX 34 March 26, 1976 Spiro OK 33 April 3, 1974 Guin AL 32 April 3, 1974 Tanner AL 31 April 3, 1974 Mt. Hope AL 30 April 3, 1974 Sayler Park OH 29 April 3, 1974 Brandenburg KY 28 April 3, 1974 Xenia OH 27 April 3, 1974 Daisy Hill IN 26 May 6, 1973 Valley Mills TX 25 February 21, 1971 Delhi LA 24 May 11, 1970 Lubbock TX 23 June 13, 1968 Tracy MN 22 May 15, 1968 Maynard IA 21 May 15, 1968 Charles City IA 20 April 23, 1968 Gallipolis OH 19 October 14, 1966 Belmond IA 18 June 8, 1966 Topeka KS 17 March 3, 1966 Jackson MS 16 May 8, 1965 Gregory SD 15 May 5, 1964 Bradshaw NE 14 April 3, 1964 Wichita Falls TX 13 May 5, 1960 Prague OK 12 June 4, 1958 Menomonie WI 11 December 18, 1957 Murphysboro IL 10 June 20, 1957 Fargo ND 9 May 20, 1957 Ruskin Heights MO 8 April 3, 1956 Grand Rapids MI 7 May 25, 1955 Udall KS 6 May 25, 1955 Blackwell OK 5 December 5, 1953 Vicksburg MS 4 June 27, 1953 Adair IA 3 June 8, 1953 Flint MI 2 May 29, 1953 Ft. Rice ND 1 May 11, 1953 Waco TX ============================================================
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A) An excellent job, I agree. And ppl heeded their warnings. Ppl in OK and OKC area are Tornado-safety savvy!
B) Perhaps (?) in your neck of the woods (the bowels of NYC subways, ensconced deep within a skyscraper or maybe deep in the NY Fed’s or JPM’s Gold vault, or perhaps madly scoring pork belies on the CME trading floor in Chicago?)
Could we instead require 162 MHz NWS receivers (with SAME *1 technology) be built-in to cell phones, to take advantage of alternate RF transmission technology (alternate to the required call-phone infrastructure of base stations and backhaul T-span trunks)? Maybe even support the requirement that commercial FM broadcast receivers be built into cell phones? *2
I (and a lot of other ppl) don’t necessarily want their cell phones popping off if we’re already aware of a situation; what to do if driving in traffic? We already have prohibitions against texting and now I have an ‘alert’ pop up … this needs more disc. but not ATTM.
Where do we draw the line in applying ‘preemptive safety’ (allied with the ‘precautionary principle’ I think) measures? Where do ppl take some amount of responsibility (which I contend they did in the OKC/Moore/Shawnee areas on Sunday and Monday) for their actions in life?
“Situational awareness” *is* more than just a catch phrase, you know …
.
*1 NWS “SAME” (Specific Area Message Encoding) protocol:
– http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/nwrsame.htm
*2 “Congress to mandate FM radio receivers in all cell phones?”:
– http://www.androidcentral.com/congress-mandate-fm-radio-recievers-all-cell-phones
Largely, in many locations, for the astute observer they are irrelevant; I thought you might want informed, in depth discussion on this subject? Maybe not? Things are not so monolithic in the real world.
I have long thought that sirens were woefully inadequate; as I wrote above in response to u.k.(us):
We have the wherewithal today to equip each man, woman and child with a wireless warning device tied directly to a governmentally-sanctioned message content; You have seen the NWS “All Hazards Radio” receivers (not just called “weather radios” anymore) that are available today?
Do we need to proceed with a program in that direction, equipping everyone with a rechargeable ‘All Hazards Radio’? These are just questions/thoughts I pose, from the ‘Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave’ …
.
mavbraselton@gmail.com on May 22, 2013 at 11:33 pm:
hi there your email address verified so i signed you up for a monthly nasa newsletter to expose you to some real science
you can unsubscribe here
since you have yet to learn to not post an email address online this may be the nicest new thing in your inbox that you will be exposed to
Possible temporary/semi-permanent shelters that could be placed over existing slabs in Moore/OKC?
FEMA, are you listening?
.
In following up on a claim by James Elsner on the DotEarth blog, I came across this:
http://prezi.com/0epprab1wsit/the-increasing-intensity-of-the-strongest-tornadoes/
which claims a trend of increasing severity in strong tornadoes.
Does anyone know if this is reviewed work, or have any other comments? The rpub link is broken.
I’ve posted the same request on the thread concerning Bill Nye today. Thank in advance for any help.
From _Jim on May 23, 2013 at 8:39 am:
Too late, they already sent in the emergency no-bid purchase order for more trailer homes to a union-shop manufacturer in Chicago that accidentally was a major campaign contributor to both Barry and Rahm, citing the projected short delivery times due to being so physically close. Press Secretary Carney has already authorized the release criticizing the Bush Administration for selling off the Katrina surplus.
But FEMA does listen to their detractors, it does learn from their mistakes. It is solidly in the specifications, all trailers must be equipped with an automatic forced ventilation system to dissipate the formaldehyde vapors.
mavbraselton@gmail.com says:
May 22, 2013 at 11:33 pm
hi there wizzards can stop tornados witn magic
_______________
Can’t really be sure what you’re saying, but…
I see you attack strangers with words you think so clever which I see all over the place at those hate sites where everyone points fingers and slings hateful epithets at all whom they don’t understand while congratulating each other because they don’t have the eyes to see what they are doing or the ears to hear what they are saying and now finally you began to realize the hollowness within you and you come here and strike out at others hoping someone notices when you scream SOMEBODY HELP ME !!!
Is that what you are saying?
From Luther Wu on May 23, 2013 at 10:18 am:
Luther, Google finds that email address, 20 times, spread over a few years. Recent samples, same site:
At a 2009 somewhat-technical article about possible laser hard drives (optical magnetization), he commented in 2011:
Sounds like he’s one of the “special” people, who loves his video games on the consoles, who can browse them intarwebs, and even sometimes post comments.
And he always starts with “hi there”. So polite, God bless him.
_Jim says:
May 23, 2013 at 8:39 am
=========
Will the walls hold up, if you 1/2 buried it, and used it as a tornado shelter ?
“God bless him.”
Oh, boy. LAUGHING OUT LOUD, K. D.! Great work above. Thank you SO MUCH for the best antidote we can have to all the sorrow: laughter. Ha, ha, ha, ha, haaaaa!
I can just see that little gamer, grinning madly, sending his “hi there’s” all over cyberspace. Someday, he’ll be running for president, bless his heart.
*******************************
And, Luther, you GO, man! What a fine spirit.
I road out the F3 that ripped through Redstone Arsenal onapril 4th, 1974, I saw the tornado on the TV weather radar about 4 seconds before it physically arrived, which gave me three steps warning. The sound was more like a steam locomotive, but most people leave out the locomotive hitting your building part. The only reason I survived it was the tornado skipped off the ground 500 feet when it went over. Earlier I had personaly seen 4 funnels on the ground, 3 at the same time. My suspicion is that many past tornadoes durring outbreaks were unreported due to being thought duplicates, or people assume someone else would report them.
Knowing what an F3 500 feet over head is like, an F5 on the ground has to be like Armageddon.
kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
May 23, 2013 at 11:19 am
_________________
Yes, I see that. now- thanks… had wholly the wrong idea- mistaking him for someone who uses such terminology when trash talking about Christians.
Oh well. I’m frequently wrong.
I don’t know; I’d have to know a few engineering parameters on the wall’s ‘pressure’ (differential holding) strength before making a call on that. Could be that the entire cast -er- rather ‘hardened (but thin) concrete fabric structure’ would be sucked right out of the ground (with yourself still it it!) given the proposed (partial) burial method. That structure will be holding an awful lot of approx. 15 psi (2,160 lbs/sq ft) capable air under it …
_Jim says:
May 23, 2013 at 12:09 pm
=========
Good points (way over my pay scale).
But, it is the winds that destroy things, not the vacuum ?
“I’m frequently wrong.” [L.W.]
Me too.
That you ADMIT it, however, proves you are no fool.
*****************************
U.K. (U.S.)!
I have just missed you twice in the past month. This will be my last attempt. THANK YOU SO MUCH for your kind words to me when I first starting posting on WUWT. I was so grateful.
And, you CAN write.
(just a “Yup” would be so appreciated — thanks!)
The *rapid* movement of air over the partially exposed surface of the dome will creates a locally lowered absolute pressure (as it always does; even the Jet stream over a lower air mass creates this ‘lowered’ area of pressure) … think: the Bernoulli (or Venturi) effect: “an increase in the speed of the fluid occurs simultaneously with a decrease in pressure”. Same effect when you try to hold up a piece of paper horizontally then blow _across_ the top and the paper seems to get ‘lifted’ (actually air from below, at slightly greater pressure is *lifting* the paper…. reason why I mentioned the 15 psi (abs) air pressure in the dome before.)
As the strong wind blows across the dome, the ‘pressure’ won’t have dropped inside the dome, therefore, a force differential will exist between inside and outside the dome (in the *outward* direction). Car windows get ‘sucked’ out this way, with strong, brief winds for instance.
Watch these cars get literally ‘sucked’ up, not blown, until they do get airborne. The air underneath them is what actually ‘lifts’ them (there is no real force such as ‘vacuum’, only differential of air *pressure*):
.
Janice Moore says:
May 23, 2013 at 12:38 pm
======
You are welcome.
I don’t give accolades very often.
It must have been well deserved (as a skeptic).
But, I like to stay in the background, I’ll continue to enjoy your comments.
_Jim says:
May 23, 2013 at 12:48 pm
=====
It is the evacuation of the fluid (air) that moved the cars.
Nicely explained.
Thanks for upsetting my world-view, still processing.
u.k.(us) says May 23, 2013 at 1:45 pm:
“It is the evacuation of the fluid (air) that moved the cars.”
Rather, it is the __reduced pressure__ above the cars which allows the __HIGHER pressure air below__ the cars to then _lift_ the cars …
Try that trick of blowing across a sheet of notebook paper, and watch it rise.
These guys describe the effect:
http://www.fi.edu/flight/own2/lift-paper.html
PS. Do you know why we can’t draw water (via a pump capable of pulling a vacuum) from the top of a pipe more than about 33 feet tall (at sea level)?
_Jim says:
May 23, 2013 at 5:06 pm
“PS. Do you know why we can’t draw water (via a pump capable of pulling a vacuum) from the top of a pipe more than about 33 feet tall (at sea level)? ”
===============
So, now you are going to speak about the depth of gravity wells, and what they have managed to accumulate over time.
Let’s start a whole course 🙂
It might be faster, certainly more enlightening.
“So, now you are going to speak about the depth of gravity wells, and …”
Oh, no – we have never even left the realm of AIR PRESSURE yet!
It all has to do with air pressure! That column of 33 (some odd) feet of water in weight ‘balances’ against the force of 15 PSI (actually closer to 14.7 PSI) air pressure seen at sea level!
Remember – vacuum is nothing, it’s all AIR PRESSURE!
The map shoes tornado ending before the lake. It didnt… lots damaged homes and property on other side.
I’ll walk it way back. Just having fun.
Right ?
U.K. (US) — You are so cool. Way to hang in there. I was right there with you. Jim is obviously bright and highly knowledgeable. His teaching skills are of the army drill sergeant variety, I’m afraid. Pretty blunt. Not for me.
Thank you for trying, Jim, in your enthusiastic and determined way to educate people like u.k. (us) and I. And thanks for the vicariously humbling experience (always a good thing!) of being shown just how little I really to know about science. I’m so glad I can come here and try to learn.
Just wanted you to know, u.k.(us) that you and I are in the same boat.
Oh, dear — I just heard via the police scanner that the I-5 bridge over the Skagit River just collapsed with people on it, cars in the water I must go — PRAY! ANYBODY WHO SEES THIS POST!
http://www.idahopress.com/news/national/cars-in-water-after-bridge-collapse-on-i–north/article_14eebe84-c41b-11e2-ae5e-001a4bcf887a.html
Note this has yet to be connected by Romm or Hansen to climate change. Updates pending.