Apologies in advance for the Vinerism.
From the University of Hawaii ‑ SOEST, something that doesn’t seem to be a problem based on the past data I’ve found:
![whaw_rainfall[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/whaw_rainfall1.gif)
Source: USGS
It seems clear when you look at the peaks of 1997/1998 and 2004/2005 (both big El Niño years) that Hawaii is a slave to ENSO more than anything else. Even in the press release they admit their best models can’t predict future rainfall reliably, and even though new approach (which is the focus of the new paper) falls short. So, given their blunt admissions of uncertainty, I don’t even know why this press release exists – Anthony
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Less rainfall expected for the Hawaiian Islands
Almost imperceptibly, rainfall over the Hawaiian Islands has been declining since 1978, and this trend is likely to continue with global warming through the end of this century, according to a team of scientists at the University of Hawaii at Manoa (UHM) and the University of Colorado at Boulder. This latest Hawaii rainfall study, published in the March 13, 2013, early online issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research, supports previous work conducted at the University of Hawaii. What has been unclear, however, is whether this drying trend will continue.
“For water resource and ecosystem management, and for other societal needs, we need to know whether this drying trend will continue this century,” says lead investigator Oliver Elison Timm at the International Pacific Research Center, UHM.
As of now, not even cutting edge climate models have enough resolution to capture the diverse rainfall pattern over Hawaii, where dry and wet areas often lie only a mile or even less apart.
To work around this problem, the team devised a method called ‘statistical downscaling.’ They first got a take on the effects of the general drying trend on local heavy-rain days by reanalyzing observations from 1978 to 2010 at 12 rain-gauge stations spread throughout the islands. Studying hundreds of weather patterns during such days, they identified the typical atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Pacific that favor heavy rains over Hawaii.
“The patterns we saw did not surprise us,” recalls Elison Timm. “For example, we found that the typical winter Kona storms with moist air-flow from the South often produce torrential rains in the islands.”
Using those weather patterns linked to heavy rains, the team developed a statistical model that estimates the number of heavy rain events during a year. They found that the large circulation patterns over the mid-latitude and tropical North Pacific have already shifted since 1978 so that fewer weather disturbances reach the Islands during the rainy season from November through April.
“We can’t predict individual rain events with our method,” clarifies Professor Thomas W. Giambelluca, Department of Geography, UHM, “but it gives us a very good estimate of the number of heavy rain events in a given season based on the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.”
Combining information from their statistical model and cutting-edge climate models driven with the projected increase in greenhouse gases until the end of this century, the scientists conclude that we can expect the recent trend towards drier winter seasons with fewer heavy-rain days to continue through the end of this century.
“It is extremely difficult to take all the uncertainties into account and our overall result may not apply to all sites in Hawai’i,” cautions Senior Researcher Henry Diaz from the University of Colorado. “We are just beginning to understand the details of how climate change will affect the Hawaiian Islands. We do not know yet how further warming will impact extreme heavy downpours.”
Citation:
Oliver Elison Timm, Mami Takahashi, Thomas W. Giambelluca, and Henry F. Diaz, 2013: On the Relation between Large-Scale Circulation Pattern and Heavy Rain Events over the Hawaiian Islands: Recent Trends and Future Changes. Journal of Geophysical Research, (early online-release in March 2013, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50314/abstract )
Funding:
The project was supported by grants from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service through the Pacific Island Climate Change Cooperative and the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center. Additional funding was provided jointly by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Honolulu District, and the Commission on Water Resource Management, Hawaii Department of Land and Natural Resources.
DirkH says:
April 23, 2013 at 3:52 pm
They are probably invested in a desalination plant builder. Are these the same guys that prescribed Australia its desal plants?
Where is Barry Harrop? Wind, drought whirley gigs and desalination bring back memories.
As for working @ur momisugly CU-Boulder, what happens if you have no soul to sell?
I have a Progressive idea. Let’s not get involved in any wars with communist/totalitarian agressors who also happened to be involved in killing their own populations, like we did during WWII. We will let China handle North Korea. ALSO, let’s not abuse science to make scary water shortage models that require government to strictly control water and cause rates to skyrocket for homes, growers, and industry.
If these people have their way, children will not know what pineapples and banannas are, or milk, or coconuts, because of horrifying misguided “local only” policies.
“It is the violence of well intentioned governments that transforms drought to famine.” Adam Smith
vukcevic says:
April 23, 2013 at 12:07 pm
“OT: On an earlier thread I posted a note about vulnerability of ‘Rate this’ (thumbs –up –down) facility, and now I am pleased to notice that it’s not there any more (or is it just my pc?).”
WUWT is awesomely intelligent. I knew the “Rate” item would disappear quickly.
The government spends money on this crap and furloughs air traffic controllers, inconveniencing and even endangering citizens. Somebody’s priorities are slightly fornicated up, methinks.
Zeke,
“It is the violence of well intentioned governments that transforms drought to famine.” ~Adam Smith
That tugs on my heart.
The “cutting-edge” computer models are one step better than the standard “state-of-the art” models. They allow definition of “unprecedented imperceptibility” in trends.
Unless the Westerlies stop blowing, the windward side of all those islands will know what rain is. And when the Kona winds blow the western sided of those islands get rained on. The only exceptions I can think of are the smaller islands in the rain shadows of Maui and Hawaii.
R2Dtoo,
If a Model had a cutting edge thought in her pretty little brain (sorry was that sex’st ). R2, help, I’m about to be attacked by imperial troops.
A week or so ago I stopped the automatic posts from WUWT on my e-mail. Not at all because of what Anthony et al (and most of you) on the site do and explain. ( btw it is now a book mark so I can access at my own leisure) .
The problem is that the “leisure” quickly becomes exasperation after reading articles like this one above. The frustration with this kind of reporting is giving me and most of us migraines if not driving some of us mad!
G P Hanner,
Have you noticed; little Islands have bigger rain? I think the smaller an Island gets the bigger the rain drops are.
For Wayne: You made just the kind of comment I wish to make. Sarcastic and a little snarky, but you did it in two words. Bravo, bravo,bravo. Three thumbs up.
Chad – its off topic, but I just did some work on this exact issue thats worth sharing since you brought it up. Its not their priorities that are messed up – it is their most basic ethics. The current administration is intentionally and purposely creating the inconvenience to forward their own agenda. Often this type behavior is well known but hard to prove – but not here.
Here are some excerpts of an article I’ve been working on that show two important things – one the current administration itself proposed a similar cut a year ago, with no dire predictions of delays and compromised safety.
More importantly, despite budgets that have increased significantly actual flights – aircraft arrivals and departures, are down over recent years. The FAA seemed to have no problem handling higher levels of aircraft traffic on significantly lower budgets in the past. Putting absolute proof to the claim these delays and safety concerns are unnecessary, unneeded and downright, in my opinion, outright criminal if indeed they do get someone hurt.
wayne says:
April 23, 2013 at 2:17 pm
Souls are going pretty cheap nowadays–I hear all you have to do is find an old hockey stick and put some new paint on it. Or use the words “Almost imperceptibly” in all seriousness and the world is your oyster.
Just don’t expect a refund–ever.
Around May 1992 my wife and I spent a week marooned by rain in an expensive hotel on the east side of Kauai near Lihue Airport. We heard that the last pineapple cannery had just closed and that now the Island would be reliant on tourism. This is a precarious state for an isolated economy. One bad tsunami or earthquake and it’s goodbye to income.
I wonder about the wisdom of these climate people publishing scary scenarios about future climate. If they are believed by planners, they are hardly likely to spark investment in new industries, or even plans to seek it. The locals plausibly become depressed by bad economic news and get into a downward spiral that can go quite low. I’ve seen this effect at work in isolated Australian aboriginal communities. Youngsters say “Why should I get a good education? They send me back here to be with my family, but there are few children interested in being taught and their parents take to drink, which does not help.”
There should be some mechanism to restrain these climate doom people from using guesses under the guise of academia to help places disintegrate.
Jimbo,s link (April 23, 2013 at 4:00 pm) is the best reference dossier of failed AGW predictions I have come so far. Well done Jimbo.
Here In the UK, this morning’s purple and crimson sunrise has subdued to orange – as the proverb goes: “Red sky in the morning, Global Warming. Red sky at night, Ditto.”
Hmmm. I thought the high rain years were due to AGW. That was the “new normal” But this report seems to say cooling is causing lower rainfall. Interesting…..though not unpredictable.
Hawaiians ‘won’t know what rainfall is’
Just as we in the UK were never going to see snow I assume?
A. Scott says:
April 23, 2013 at 9:23 pm
Can I duplicate your post over at http://www.FreeRepublic.com as its own thread?
A couple of 100,000+ readers over there would like to see your work – especially because it is highly compressed yet well summarized in even these few words.
So why didn’t they just say “Using cutting edge computer models we don’t know what happened in the past and we don’t know what will happen in the future”
My prediction is that there will be extremely heavy rainfall and flooding in the not too distant future. To arrive at this simple analysis I have used The Met Syndrome Method, which is an extremely accurate method of forecasting and has been developed using Met Office predictions. Whatever the prediction the opposite will happen.
I can assure you…as a long-time resident of Hilo, Hawaii…seems just as wet around here as it has been for the past 34 years (my personal period of record). The latest “mega-deluge” was in November 2000. This past February was pretty soggy, the farm equipment bogged down in the mud.
You are too kind but Pierre Gosselin did most of the donkey work. 😉 Commenters contributed too. The Notrickszone page is focused on to winter and spring quotes from mostly scientists. For a broader reference of various climate parameters you need to visit the following:
http://www.c3headlines.com/predictionsforecasts/
A. Scott says:
April 23, 2013 at 4:48 pm
Thank you A. Scott; you provided much more detail than I had. I’ve only been to the big island but as you point out enormous climatic variations occur on all the Hawaiian islands.
So to calculate a valid “average” rainfall on any island would take thousands of rainfall sensors. And once you got a valid average it would be a meaningless number. And a trend in a meaningless number is still a meaningless number. And a grant to fund the study of a meaningless number is climate research.
DirkH says:
April 23, 2013 at 3:52 pm
Actually Hawaii goes the other way — they have dehydration plants (evaporate sea water to get the salt). In Kona on the big island is the Kona Sea Salt plant, which pumps sea water from 2200 feet (670m) down through a 2km pipeline to large solar evaporation ponds. See here . Supposedly the natural sea salt is somehow healthier than processed table salt, and it’s 100% iodine-free. Personally I’d be more concerned about whale poop.
Thanks again Jimbo . . . . and thanks to Pierre Gosselin as well.
It’s a shame that Chris Packham’s BBC Springwatch Special ‘Signs of Change’ from 17 May 2010 is no longer available to view. He spent a whole hour of licence fee payers money endorsing “the dire effect of increasingly milder winters, earlier springs & hotter summers on our British wildlife”.
I’d love to explain to him that the decline in our garden bird population has more to do with (a) domestic cats, and (b) an avian kamikaze tendency to collide into the increasing amount of glass conservatories tagged on the back of most people’s homes. I’ve just put another dead greenfinch in the wheelie bin. We have a conservatory. We don’t have a cat.
Looks like the team is starting to twist statistics related to the recent “pause” in warming to that could be construed as adverse, and blaming them on (the non-existent) warming. Excellent show of agility on their part…