The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has updated their monthly graph set and it appears as if the slow downside from what looks like the solar max for cycle 24. Though, it is still possible we could see a second small peak like is visible at the upper left in cycle 23.
The 10.7cm radio flux continues downward:
The Ap geomagnetic index remains low, being at the same value as it was in November 2006. We’ve had over 6 years now of a lower than expected (for solar max) Ap index.
From the WUWT Solar reference page, Dr Leif Svalgaard has this plot comparing the current cycle 24 with recent solar cycles:
Another indicator, Solar Polar Fields from Mt. Wilson and Wilcox Combined -1966 to Present show that the fields have flipped (crossed the zero line) indicating solar max has happened.
Image from Dr. Leif Svalgaard – Click the pic to view at source.
More at the WUWT Solar reference page.
In other news, Hathaway has updated his prediction page on 4/1/13. Perhaps he thinks a double peak might be in the cards:
The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 66 in the Fall of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high and this late. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.
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UPDATE: From: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=80572
Given the tepid state of solar activity now, a maximum in May seems unlikely. “We may be seeing what happens when you predict a single amplitude and the Sun responds with a double peak,” says Pesnell. He notes a similarity between Solar Cycle 24 and Solar Cycle 14, which had a double-peak during the first decade of the 20th century. If the two cycles are twins, “it would mean one peak in late 2013 and another in 2015.”
HenryP says:
April 12, 2013 at 1:57 pm
well before you get that candle lit in the dark,
you might have to stumble around a bit in the darkness?
Smart people would light the dark-sucking candle ahead of time. Let others stumble if they want to.
Lief and Henry P:
Candles were expensive and electric light bulbs were brighter.
But an illuminating conversation is still rare.
Richard
Richard says
an illuminating conversation is still rare.
henry says
so true…
William Astley says:
April 12, 2013 at 3:24 am
..What Caused Recent Acceleration of the North Magnetic Pole Drift?
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010EO510001/abstract
Thanks for the effort here, William. Especially the above link. Has the Vuks seen that?
On the GCR cloud link.. you may be interested in a Japanese study linking the Negative N.pole solar cycles to increased rainfall over Japan. The Negative N. pole solar cycles showing increases in GCR.
Thanks to Dr. S. and all his efforts tooo!
The systems are all too messy. Still sorting it all out like a stamp collection?
1phobosgrunt says:
April 12, 2013 at 6:49 pm
..What Caused Recent Acceleration of the North Magnetic Pole Drift?
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010EO510001/abstract
As W. Campbell points out in http://www.leif.org/EOS/2003EOP050008.pdf
“Readers should be advised that these reported positions are neither magnetic poles nor geophysically important locations. and “the reported vertical dip locations are not important for the knowledgeable scientific activities of today’s world.”
lsvalgaard says:
April 12, 2013 at 7:20 pm
You didn’t see anything significant in this statement?
..During the 1990s the NMP drift speed
suddenly increased from 15 kilometers per
year at the start of the decade to 55 kilometers
per year by the decade’s end..
What Caused Recent Acceleration of the North Magnetic Pole Drift?
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010EO510001/abstract
Having not read either of the two articles ref’d..
Was wondering what the current drift speed is and if it is now slowing down again.. and if during this current minimum, (possible quite extended min) if it will continue to slow down?
Also, on another matter during this period of min solar activity, GCR propagation throughout the solar and earth systems.
Paul Vaughn left this little tidbit on another thread.
Decadal Variations of Solar Magnetic Field, Heliosphere and the Cosmic Rays, and their Impact on Climate Change
Hiroko MIYAHARA, Institute for Cosmic Ray Research, The University of Tokyo, Japan
Not only a good visual for the layman, on GCR propagation through the systems, but also demonstrates the impact of Negative N. Solar pole, on propagation and its impact on rainfall over Japan during negative cycles.
Good refresher Dr. S. On an already foundation, (tx) the above presentation helps to solidify the info. Might also help to understand that helium focusing cone and other outsiders propagating to the inner system. The HCS angle..but now always in a more flattened status as this cycle remains weak.
1phobosgrunt says:
April 13, 2013 at 8:24 am
You didn’t see anything significant in this statement?
..During the 1990s the NMP drift speed suddenly increased from 15 kilometers per year at the start of the decade to 55 kilometers
No, the magnetic field is generated deep in the Earth’s core and is very irregular there with lots of ‘lumps’ and ‘dips’. Since we are 3000 km away almost all of those have died away at the surface [small scale magnetic fields decrease very strongly with distance], leaving basically only the dipole standing with a few dimples here and there. These dimples effectively determine where the field is vertical [the ‘poles’ on the surface]. With increasing distance up from the surface into the magnetosphere even the dimples go away and the solar wind only sees the dipole. So the interaction between the Sun’s and the Earth’s magnetic field does not care about the moving irregularities of the field. To put is simply: the solar influence cannot ‘see’ the drift.
1phobosgrunt says:
April 13, 2013 at 8:53 am
Not only a good visual for the layman, on GCR propagation through the systems, but also demonstrates the impact of Negative N. Solar pole, on propagation and its impact on rainfall over Japan during negative cycles.
The variation of GCRs with solar polarity is a very week effect. You can see it here http://www.leif.org/research/Kiel-Cosmic-Rays-and-Solar-Cycles.png Note that every other minimum shows a sharply peaked flux with the surrounding minima showing a more ’rounded’ variation. The difference behavior is due to the polarity of the Sun. You can see that that difference is of second order only. Although Hiroko is a good friend of mine, I think the connect with rainfall is just coincidental.
The HCS angle..but now always in a more flattened status as this cycle remains weak.
The HCS angle right now is what it always is at every solar maximum: about 90 degrees, regardless of how weak the cycle is.
lsvalgaard says:
April 13, 2013 at 9:29 am
..Note that every other minimum shows a sharply peaked flux with the surrounding minima showing a more ’rounded’ variation. The difference behavior is due to the polarity of the Sun…
..The HCS angle right now is what it always is at every solar maximum: about 90 degrees, regardless of how weak the cycle is..
Yes and yes, but the current sheet is flat (not inflated as much as previous cycles by a factor of ?) and will remain under inflated for ? more cycles. The GCR count that is up and coming should be interestinggg.
Do you happen to know when ESA’s Swarm is supposed to launch. Swarm is replacing Champ. (Champ ret.)
Meet Swarm
Research objectives:
Related to the Earth’s Interior:
•Map the core flow
•Determine core dynamics
•Investigate jerks: their time-space structure
and recurrence
•Understand core-mantle coupling and its
implication for Earth rotation
•Perform 3D imaging of mantle conductivity
•Determine remanent and induced
magnetisation of the lithosphere
Related to the Earth’s environment:
•Determine the position and development of
the radiation belts and their near-Earth
effects
•Investigate the time-space structure of the
magnetospheric and ionospheric current
systems on all time scales
•Monitor the solar wind energy input into the
upper atmosphere and sense its effect on
the thermospheric density
•Sound the electron density of the
ionosphere/plasmasphere and relate it to
magnetic activity
Swarm is a constellation to study the
dynamics of the Earth’s magnetic field and
its interactions within the Earth System
1phobosgrunt says:
April 13, 2013 at 6:07 pm
Yes and yes, but the current sheet is flat (not inflated as much as previous cycles by a factor of ?) and will remain under inflated for ? more cycles.
No, the current sheet is not flat, it has maximum waviness now http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Tilts.gif as in all other cycles at maximum.
That the tilt angle does not go above 70 degrees is an artifact caused by WSO only measuring an average over latitudes 60-90 degrees. The ‘pixel’ size is 1/11 of the solar diameter: Figure 1 of http://www.leif.org/research/The%20Strength%20of%20the%20Sun's%20Polar%20Fields.pdf
1phobosgrunt says:
April 13, 2013 at 6:07 pm
Do you happen to know when ESA’s Swarm is supposed to launch.
On February 13, 2013 the launch was postponed due to “launcher issues”. The new launch date is yet to be determined.
Leif,
When a compass needle is pointing north, is it attracted to the magnetic north pole or is it aligning itself in the direction of the magnetic field traveling north?
I’d appreciate your opinion, while (brainstorming!) studying the subject this week, I’ve had a few great ideas, I may need shot-down a peg or two! any help? 🙂
Sparks says:
April 16, 2013 at 4:13 pm
When a compass needle is pointing north, is it attracted to the magnetic north pole or is it aligning itself in the direction of the magnetic field traveling north?
By convention [in the Western world – the ancient Chinese had the opposite convention], the magnetic pole of the compass needle itself [it has two, one at each end] is pointing north called a ‘north pole’. It points north because it is attracted to a magnetic south pole up north of Canada. So the Northern Magnetic Pole is actually a south pole. That direction is also [defined] as that of the Horizontal part of the Earth’s magnetic field.
Leif,
That makes sense, thanks for confirming some basics for me. One other obscure question I have for you is; Do dark stars (“Black holes”) in your opinion have a magnetic field?
lsvalgaard says:
April 16, 2013 at 4:27 pm
By convention [in the Western world – the ancient Chinese had the opposite convention], the magnetic pole of the compass needle itself [it has two, one at each end] if pointing north is called a ‘north pole’. It points north because it is attracted to a magnetic south pole up north of Canada. So the Northern Magnetic Pole is actually a south pole. That direction is also [defined] as that of the Horizontal part of the Earth’s magnetic field.
A more accurate description [not dumbed down] would be that the needle, if suspended freely, will align itself with the magnetic field line which will point north and down. The downward angle is called the Inclination. In a compass the downward tilt is prevented by the mounting of the needle so only the horizontal part is felt.
Sparks says:
April 16, 2013 at 5:41 pm
That makes sense, thanks for confirming some basics for me. One other obscure question I have for you is; Do dark stars (“Black holes”) in your opinion have a magnetic field?
Black holes have ;no hair’ [i.e. properties other than mass and charge] and so will not have a magnetic field [as really nor charge either – because if it did it would attract opposite charges from its environment]. There may be strong magnetic fields in the gas swirling around the hole, but that is another story. The hole itself has no intrinsic magnetic field [AFAIK].
Leif,
>…would be that the needle, if suspended freely, will align itself with the magnetic field line which will point north and down.
It actually does, could that same magnetic field, I wonder, influence the world around it? no no maybe it only attracts needles and mysterious Chinese philosophers! 😉
Sparks says:
April 16, 2013 at 6:11 pm
could that same magnetic field, I wonder, influence the world around it?
The magnetic field in itself does not do anything. It, however, determines the interaction with the solar wind and therefore indirectly influences the energy transferred to the [very] upper atmosphere. In [rare] extreme cases that interaction can generate electric currents near the surface that can damage power line transformers and a host of other things.
Leif,
You’re right, bare in mind the earths magnetic field is separate, (at the moment) from the sun, do you think the suns magnetic field has a rotation?
Sparks says:
April 16, 2013 at 7:53 pm
You’re right, bear in mind the earths magnetic field is separate, (at the moment) from the sun, do you think the suns magnetic field has a rotation?
The Earth’s and the Sun’s magnetic fields are connect at all times. I don’t know what you mean by ‘rotation’. The Sun rotates and so does its magnetic field.
Leif,
The Earth’s and the Sun’s magnetic fields are connect at all times. I don’t know what you mean by ‘rotation’. The Sun rotates and so does its magnetic field.
If a magnetic field is attracted to a rotating object; wouldn’t the object produce a rotating magnetic field?
Sparks says:
April 16, 2013 at 8:47 pm
If a magnetic field is attracted to a rotating object; wouldn’t the object produce a rotating magnetic field?
Yes, in a reference system not rotating with the object, but if you were rotating with the object [e.g. sitting in the solar corona or solar wind], the magnetic field would not seem to rotate. I’m not sure why any of this is important.
Leif,
Wouldn’t a strong rotating magnetic field approaching an object produce more energy on that object than when it was passing it?
Sparks says:
April 16, 2013 at 9:11 pm
Wouldn’t a strong rotating magnetic field approaching an object produce more energy on that object than when it was passing it?
Your question is not precise enough for a meaningful answer. A changing magnetic field in a conductor would produce an electric current that when dissipated would heat the conductor. I’m not sure that is what you have in mind.