Energy, Resources, Money, and Technology

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

I’ve made some statements lately that I’d like to reprise.

• There is never a shortage of resources. It’s a shortage of cheap enough energy to get the resources economically.

• Energy and money are inextricably linked.

• Making energy expensive hurts, impoverishes, and even kills the poor.

• Technology is not bulldozers. It’s getting more production using less energy.

People say, well, what about water? What if there’s a shortage of water? How does that relate to your statements above? You figure out how to manufacture water?

grapheneFigure 1. Graphene is a one-molecule-thick form of carbon, arranged in a hexagonal pattern. SOURCE

I’d like to illustrate all four of these statements with a recent news article, from Reuters:

Pentagon weapons-maker finds method for cheap, clean water

(Reuters) – A defense contractor better known for building jet fighters and lethal missiles says it has found a way to slash the amount of energy needed to remove salt from seawater, potentially making it vastly cheaper to produce clean water at a time when scarcity has become a global security issue.

The process, officials and engineers at Lockheed Martin Corp say, would enable filter manufacturers to produce thin carbon membranes with regular holes about a nanometer in size that are large enough to allow water to pass through but small enough to block the molecules of salt in seawater. A nanometer is a billionth of a meter.

As you might guess, they make it out of graphene.

“It’s 500 times thinner than the best filter on the market today and a thousand times stronger,” said John Stetson, the engineer who has been working on the idea. “The energy that’s required and the pressure that’s required to filter salt is approximately 100 times less.”

Damn … a factor of a hundred? Two orders of magnitude less energy required? Are you aware what that will do?

Well … without cheap energy, it won’t do much at all, will it? … it takes a large amount of energy to pump the seawater through the reverse osmosis filters, even new graphene filters.

But with cheap energy? It can make the deserts bloom, quite literally. Israel’s doing it now, they are currently desalinating about three hundred million (300,000,000) cubic metres of water per year. That’s seventy-nine billion gallons, (79,000,000,000). And plants are now under construction to more than double that amount.

How much water is that? Well, when the new Israeli plants are at full capacity it will be enough to cover all of Israel’s current agricultural land with about 6″ (15 cm) of water. And they’re already doing it at a reasonable cost, even before the latest development. Right now, it’s about five gallons for one cent ($0.01).

cost efficiency isreal desalinationFigure 2. Cost per cubic metre (black) for desalinated water around the world. I have added the cost per 100 US gallons in blue. The four outlined plants are in Israel.

Now, with the new graphene filters, the cost of water should be dropping, perhaps even by a factor of ten, for people from Algeria and Cyprus to Trinidad and Israel. And since this is just a filter and can be made in any shape, it can be made as a pin-to-pin replacement for filters in existing desalination plants. This can only be good news for the poor of the world.

Let me look at all of that discussion of desalination in terms of my statements reprised above:

• Technology is not bulldozers. It’s getting more production using less energy.

This is at the heart of the new development of the graphene filter for the reverse osmosis desalination of seawater.

• Making energy expensive hurts, impoverishes, and even kills the poor.

If a country has to pay twice as much for its energy, it will pay twice as much for its water. This hurts everyone, particularly the poor.

• Energy and money are inextricably linked.

The cost of the water is a function of the cost of energy.

• There is never a shortage of resources. It’s a shortage of cheap enough energy to get the resources economically.

If energy is cheap, then with technology many, many things are possible … including using endless seawater to turn the deserts green. On the other hand, if energy is expensive, resources are no longer economical, water costs more, and people suffer.

That’s all,

w.

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March 17, 2013 11:05 pm

Shortages only exist when prices are fixed below market value. By definition, they cannot exist otherwise.

Kevin Hilde
March 17, 2013 11:25 pm

Hey Willis …. something I’ve been thinking about for years now ….. maybe you can tell me why it wouldn’t work or why nobody’s done it already (or maybe they have.)
Use gravity to create the pressure for osmosis. Specifically, build huge silos in water several hundred feet deep, have filters down near the base, pump the water out of the silos, and let the weight of the ocean refill the silo through the filters.
If someone can engineer strong enough support for the filter medium and a way to easily swap out filters, the only energy necessary is that which pumps the water ashore from the constantly refilling base of the silo.
Patent # xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Kevin Hilde
(It can’t be that easy, can it?)

March 17, 2013 11:29 pm

Nice article, Willis. I agree. We have abundance. That governments the world over are insisting on expensive energy is suicidal. We’ve been brought up to trust in fear, believe in scarcity and hate our own human nature. We HAVE the technology now to unleash cheap energy the world over. The whole world would bloom. We really have to shift the scaremongers out of the way, they are destroying everything for everyone – worse, most of them know they are doing exactly that – they really have to go.

BioBob
March 17, 2013 11:29 pm

Sorry Mark, that is incorrect.
Shortages also exist where consumption (market size) exceeds supply (production). This can be temporary (due to distortions eg hoarding) or permanent (due to commodity rarity like the supply of passenger pigeons). In the later case, no possible increase in price will increase the supply.

March 17, 2013 11:50 pm

F-35. Late. Over-budget. Doesn’t meet performance criteria. “Made” by LockMart.
Very low on the credibility scale at the moment.

Henry Clark
March 17, 2013 11:55 pm

The primary resources needed by civilization are water, energy, metals, hydrogen + carbon, nitrogen, and oxygen.
Water is illustrated well in this article.
On energy, there is all from the surge in natural gas reserves by fracking now to what even Wikipedia notes on thorium: “Even common granite rock with 13 PPM thorium concentration (just twice the crustal average, along with 4 ppm uranium) contains potential nuclear energy equivalent to 50 times the entire rock’s mass in coal,[82] although there is no incentive to resort to such very low-grade deposits so long as much higher-grade deposits remain available and cheaper to extract.[83]”
13% of even the average rock, amongst quadrillions of tons in Earth’s crust, is comprised of the metals used most: iron and aluminum.
Hydrogen and carbon are abundant, from methane hydrates to H2O+CO2 to other available sources. Those plus an energy source allow Fischer-Tropsch synthesis of plastics if needed.
Nitrogen (such as for Haber process fertilizer) is nearly 4/5ths of air, with the rest mostly oxygen.
As even part of Wikipedia notes, under criticisms of peak element claims:
“As some illustrations, tin, copper, iron, lead, and zinc all had both production from 1950 to 2000 and reserves in 2000 much exceed world reserves in 1950, which would be impossible except for how “proved reserves are like an inventory of cars to an auto dealer” at a time, having little relationship to the actual total affordable to extract in the future.[58] In the example of ‘peak phosphorus,’ additional concentrations exist intermediate between 71,000 MT of identified reserves (USGS)[59] and the approximately 30,000,000,000 MT of other phosphorus in Earth’s crust, with the average rock being 0.1% phosphorus, so showing decline in human phosphorus production will occur soon would require far more than comparing the former figure to the 190 MT/yr of phosphorus extracted in mines (2011 figure).[58][59][60][61]
Anti-industry ideologues speak in terms of vague “resources,” but, if looking at specifics accurately, the BS in their claims is exposed.

Kevin Hilde
March 17, 2013 11:55 pm

I guess my question is ….
Assuming water level inside the silo is kept below filter level ….. is the energy required to pump the fresh water to the surface equal to the energy that would otherwise be required to desalinate at the surface?

Andrew C. Parker
March 18, 2013 12:00 am

Reverse osmosis is not only for desalinization. The EPA’s recent redefinition of what constitutes drinkable water has forced my local water company, at great expense, to pipe all water sources, ground and surface, to a central location where it is then mixed with water from a reverse osmosis unit to bring it into compliance with the new standards. If the EPA continues behaving like the nation’s homeopath, nearly all the water may need to go through reverse osmosis in a few years.

March 18, 2013 12:01 am

Desalination is already becoming competitive with drilling, pumping and piping for some markets if I remember correctly. More irrigated agriculture results in more rain down wind due to transpiration and water-nucleating aerosols from plants. As water condenses to make this rain I seem to recall it would create low pressure that could draw more moist air inland from the coasts but maybe that is too much speculation and wishful thinking on my part. Add the info described here recently about higher CO2 greening the planet and livestock being used to green deserts and there is a lot of potential.
Before disposing of the higher salt water made in the process, it might be possible to regain some of the energy used. There have been companies experimenting with using salinity differences between water from rivers and water from the sea to generate electricity. If you had a desalination plant some distance from a river supplying one area, the river supplying another, you could send some of the river water to meet the higher-salt waste water at an electrical plant halfway between them. As it combined the fresh and briny water it would have better efficiencies than just using seawater and it would mean no extra dilution would be needed to dispose of the desalination waste brine need shore.
Whether all that is practical is not for me to say. But a large decrease in desalination costs will alter our world for the better.

March 18, 2013 12:11 am

They also mention the new filter as being much stronger than current filters which means fewer replacements and longer lifespans resulting in lower labour costs.

wikeroy
March 18, 2013 12:29 am

” Israel’s doing it now, they are currently desalinating about three hundred million (300,000,0000, cubic metres of water per year. two hundred billion gallons, 200,000,000,000). And plants are now under construction to more than double that amount.”
Yes, and that is why the leftists are against Israel, and pro Arab countries. Even though Israel is the only democracy in the area. They are anti capitalism/democracy. Even though that is the only system we have today that can help the poor. Inject some capitalism and everyone benefits. Inject priesthood systems, and everyone suffers.

Felflames
March 18, 2013 12:48 am

Kevin Hilde says:
March 17, 2013 at 11:55 pm
I guess my question is ….
Assuming water level inside the silo is kept below filter level ….. is the energy required to pump the fresh water to the surface equal to the energy that would otherwise be required to desalinate at the surface?
Depends partly on geography.
Potentially if you had a coastline reasonably close to a depression lower than sea level, for example, the dead sea, you could construct a series of tunnels that would gravity feed, and you could potentially generate energy by using turbines in the tunnels.
The up side is, you get clean water, power, and it is a passive design.
It would work for example in california where the “salton sea” is shrinking from lack of water.
It was a large rift valley, below sea level,mostly barren desert.
The Salton Sea was made accidentally when a flood overwhelmed sluice gates on the Colorado river ,and for 3 years the entire flow flooded what was previously a desert.
For a while, towns sprang up along the edges , but with the river flow corrected, evaporation began shrinking the sea.

Star Craving Engineer
March 18, 2013 12:58 am

Mark says:
March 17, 2013 at 11:05 pm
BioBob says:
March 17, 2013 at 11:29 pm
More pertinent to this post, shortages exist where the resources are there for the taking but governments forbid the taking.

John
March 18, 2013 1:03 am

The idea behind making energy expensive is the same idea that led to Bretton Woods. The whole point IS to keep the poor poor!! This is how socialism is maintained and propagated. It’s not difficult to see. The World Bank and IMF lend money to even the most undemocratic bananarepublic, in exchange for ‘austerity measures’, in order to make sure the poor stay poor. Poor people vote for the socialist candidate and for further control by the state. The money from the IMF and World bank never goes to the population, only ever to governments. When money goes from one government to another it can only ever lead to the expansion of government. The climate change myth is just another tool in their arsenal to make sure socialism will continue. The fact that the World Bank is a huge driving force in propagating the climate change myth is not coincidental. Perhaps you think this is another conspiracy theory, but do your own research and you’ll see what I’m saying here is supported by facts.

March 18, 2013 1:04 am

A.D. Everard said March 17, 2013 at 11:29 pm

Nice article, Willis. I agree. We have abundance. That governments the world over are insisting on expensive energy is suicidal.

Agree… apart from that last sentence. Governments are hardly committing suicide — more like murdering their constituents. Perhaps if we started killing them in power it could be considered suicidal.

Ben D.
March 18, 2013 1:16 am

Good post. But I have serious doubts that possibilities like this which are conducive for supporting more people on this planet will be embraced by whoever it is that sponsors the UN IPCC. Iow, I think there is a touch of Malthusianism affecting some members of our race at the top end of the food chain.

dave38
March 18, 2013 1:22 am

The Pompous Git says:
March 18, 2013 at 1:04 am
Agree… apart from that last sentence. Governments are hardly committing suicide — more like murdering their constituents. Perhaps if we started killing them in power it could be considered suicidal.
More like self defence!

A fan of *MORE* discourse
March 18, 2013 2:06 am

Willis, if a Lockheed-Martin press release claimed to build a perpetual-motion machine, would you believe it? Neither should you believe Lockheed-Martin’s desalination press release.
The engineers who post on SlashDot have established that the gains in energy efficiency claimed in the Lockheed-Martin press release are thermodynamically bogus.
Please try to be less credulous and more critical in your scientific reading, Willis!
Perhaps cheap carbon energy has downsides too? A good starting-point is Michael Ross’s
The Oil Curse: How Petroleum Wealth Shapes the Development of Nations.

March 18, 2013 2:10 am

Kevin Hilde,
No, it won’t work. Lets say the pressure at the bottom of the silo is X PSI. The pressure required to pump the water to the surface is therefore also X PSI. If the pump has to produce the same pressure, you may as well just pump it straight through the filter and skip building the silo.

Disko Troop
March 18, 2013 2:11 am

Where do we put the salt?

March 18, 2013 2:21 am

Willis’s eagle soars again. Bravo!

pete50
March 18, 2013 2:34 am

Kevin
There are lots of ways to fine tune desalination. Two parts of the process are 1) remove the salt concentrate away from the filtration system entry and 2) pre-clean the source water. There are lots of little creatures in sea water and they block up filters. Easy access to the filters is a must.

View from the Solent
March 18, 2013 2:47 am

Disko Troop says:
March 18, 2013 at 2:11 am
Where do we put the salt?
===============================
On our chips (fries) 😉

Climate Ace
March 18, 2013 2:51 am

Bravo to the scientists and the engineers. I have long had my fingers crossed that technology devleopments would catch up with the rising human population so that people no longer have to go hungry.
Cheaper desalination by way of improved filters is, therefore, excellent news. It would reduce the amount of CO2 pollution emitted into the atmosphere just so people can drink clean water. It would reduce the amount of energy required for irrigation cropping. It might reduce the draw-down on freshwater systems where biodiversity loss in many areas is reaching catastrophic proportions. It would reduce or possibly even eliminate the global drawdown on fossil waters that underpins food production for so very much of the world’s population. It would almost certainly increase food supply to such an extent that global food commodity prices will decrease, with hunger becoming a small-scale, accidental occurrence rather than the large scale chronic issue it is right now.
As for cheap energy, who could possibly argue against cheap energy? It is a no brainer.
I heartily support cheap energy. Of course, to figure out the real costs of energy, the full costs of energy need to be included. Otherwise, you might not have cheap energy. You might have expensive energy for which you pay some of the costs now and some of the costs later.
One example would be Fukushima. To calculate the real costs of nuclear power, you would have to tip in the loss of production over a lare area around Fukushima, and the on-going costs of ‘temporary’ accommodation for the 150,000 people who, two years on, are still displaced.
Similarly, where cheap energy depends on emitting CO2, then the full costs of the energy would need to include either the costs of preventing AGW or the costs consequent to AGW, whichever choice humankind makes.
In relation to cheaper water by way of reduced energy use, the trick in the first instance will be to produce the graphene filters at a scale and a cost that is actually cheaper than current filters… something that has yet to be achieved. Large amounts of research funding are obviously going into potential applications for graphene, and into scaling graphene production up, so we should be seeing rapid developments.

johnmarshall
March 18, 2013 3:25 am

F-35 poorly designed from poor concept. The Harrier was brilliant, the US Marines love it and us Brits have just scrapped all ours. Same thinking behind the UK energy policy, push prices up to pay for the subsidies to afford the unaffordable wind turbines. this has driven 20%, and rising, of the UK population into energy poverty. Disgracefull!

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