Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
I was saddened to get the news that Sir Ranulf Fiennes, OBE, has gotten frostbitten. As a result, he has been forced to give up his dream of a winter crossing of Antarctica, an expedition entitled The Coldest Journey. His public support of CO2 alarmism has led to perhaps somewhat deserved public laughter at the idea of someone worried about global warming suffering frostbite, and to be sure there is the aura of the “Gore Effect” about it. (The “Gore Effect” refers to the oddity that many times when Al Gore has gone to speak somewhere, it has been unseasonably cold, and sometimes unreasonably so.)
Figure 1. Roald Amundsen, who imitated his beloved Eskimos of the Arctic in dress, style, and methods to lead the first team to the South Pole in 1911-1912. Check out the man’s eyes …
Fiennes is the oldest Briton to summit Everest, he’s a “because it’s there” kind of guy. I like to see that, I’ve taken on physical challenges to measure myself against the real world. It’s worth doing, although I prefer physical challenges that make me money instead of costing me money, but that’s just me.
I bring this up for two reasons. First, it appears that the man they call “Ran” suffered the frostbite as a side effect of incipient adult-onset diabetes … ironic given his lean physique. And for this man, as for Roald Amundsen, his hands and feet are more than just where he hangs his shoes and gloves. In some sense they are also where he hangs his life. So cut him some slack, send him some good wishes for his life and limbs …
The second reason is a bit more complex, and involves climate science.
Let me compare and contrast Amundsen’s exuberant dash to the South Pole with the current Fiennes expedition.
The photo above of a member of Amundsen’s expedition illustrates the following.
• For clothing Amundsen and his men used what the Eskimos used—a cunning, specific combination of different types of furs and other materials which allow heavy exertion in sub-zero weather without becoming encased in dangerous frozen sweat.
• For materials transport they used what the Eskimos used—dog sleds and sled dogs.
• For human transport they used what the Eskimos used—skis.
• For energy for materials transport they used what the Eskimos used—frozen seals.
• The only difference was, for energy for cooking, they used kerosene.
On the other hand, from The Coldest Journey’s web site, here’s their plan:
Now, I can understand why they are taking the vehicles. No way you’d live through all those Antarctic winter nights in some pathetic tent, not happening. But that puts the fuel use into the stratosphere. You need to tow a big fuel tank, here’s the full rig:
The proposed trip is about 2,000 miles. That crawler probably burns eight gallons per hour. Here’s their estimate from their site:
An estimated 20,000 litres will be required during the initial static phase at Novo, and 26,000 for cargo work, setting up the camp and establishing a fuel depot at 75°S. A further estimated 100,000 litres will be required for the traverse itself for the static phase at the end of the traverse. [total 39,000 gallons]
Then there’s the ships and planes to transport them and all of their gear and about forty thousand gallons of fuel to Antarctica and bring them back. By the end they will burn well over their estimated forty thousand gallons of eevil fossil fuels on the expedition, hundreds and hundreds of times what Amundsen used per man … and for what?
They give two answers: charity, and science. They’re looking to raise bucks for charity, perhaps they will, perhaps not. But under that rubric you can justify anything, as if the ends really did justify the means.
And they also claim that there will be valuable scientific measurements taken, although that seems like a bridge too far to me. According again to their web site, their plan is to take elevation measurements and snow samples … be still, my beating heart.
So I don’t buy it at all when Ranulph says:
“The science content of the Expedition is unique, global and genuine. The thought that we will be potentially doing something ground-breaking in man’s attempts to understand climate change is, for me, one of the most exciting and rewarding aspects of The Coldest Journey.”
A string of one-off elevations and snow samples taken at a certain place and time are certainly unique, no doubting that.
And I suppose they’re genuine, in that they are real samples and elevations.
But “global”? “Ground-breaking”?? Don’t make me laugh. It’s a paltry handful of observations in one of the most atypical places on the planet. In the world of climate science, that’s neither global nor ground-breaking.
Here’s my problem. I have no difficulty with someone burning thousands and thousands and thousands of gallons of fuel on a dangerous publicity stunt. That’s their business, and I wish them well. I have no problem with CO2.
But my goodness, if you’re going to do that, if you plan to burn huge quantities of fossil fuels doing something totally un-necessary just because it’s there, then don’t lecture me about climate change!
And in particular, don’t try the bogus justification that your expedition is going to provide some kind of valuable contribution to climate science.
Amundsen was the first to the South Pole, and he and his men surveyed and measured and took temperatures, he did real science that was of value for his time. It was ground-breaking, with global implications.
In this expedition, a few elevation measurements and snow samples by some dilettantes a century too late, after weather and snow and elevations have been measured all over Antarctica for decades, are nothing of the sort.
I have no problem with the expedition, it sounds like fun, heck, I’d go. And they can burn all the fossil fuel they want, also no problem for me.
It’s the moralizing and the bogus justification that ring false. I don’t need them telling me it’s OK that they burn tens of thousands of gallons fossil fuel because they’re doing “global, ground-breaking” climate science work. That’s both untrue and it’s special pleading, and I find it ugly and base in an adventurer like Sir Ranulf Fiennes, OBE.
I didn’t need any such justification for Sir Ranulf’s expedition to climb Everest, nor apparently did he. I’d suggest he do the same here, tell people he wants to make a midwinter Antarctic crossing simply because it’s there.
And above all, I wish him a speedy and complete recovery from the frostbite.
Regards to all,
w.
trafamadore says:
March 4, 2013 at 5:42 pm
Trafamadore read the comments? I think not …
We went over this upthread, you’re late to the party. The Norse people used skis, not the Eskimos, so rather than using what the Eskimos historically used, Amundsen used what the Norse people historically used. I admitted my error above when it was pointed out in a much more pleasant manner up above. The Norse people have been using skis for five millennia. My point remains—Amundsen used the ancient wisdom of people living where it’s cold. The current Coldest Journeyfolks … not so much.
And for once, just once, couldn’t you at least try to move the discussion forwards, rather than doing your best to drag it downwards? Not every subsidiary detail of my work is always correct … so what? Doesn’t affect the issues …
w.
These insane adventurers were exposed beautifully by Monty Python.
Willis, it was found recently, from Scott’s records, that the temperature in those last days fell well below minus 60C. This was possibly unknown outside inland Siberia, to be cold enough for sled runners to be unable to melt and lubricate from the snow. Pressure-induced phase change. Amundsen was lucky to miss this. Scott nearly made it in spite of the supercold. Stratospheric, indeed, and they were all in similar danger to the space pioneers. All deserve respect, especially as they could not answer for themselves. But their science can still inform us if we are smart. Brett Keane, New Zealand
Willis: “….a peculiarly British thing, they love their noble losers and will gladly accept such pathetic excuses for their losses.”
I Have lived in Britain for many years and have many British friends. Willis, whether past or present, I don’t recognize your stereotypical characterization of an entire race.
Mockery, dry humor and caustic irony, is much more typical of the average Brit. It would be a mistake to confuse establishment propaganda with the views of most British people. You will usually find Brits making fun of fools as well those who consider themselves superior to others, often one and the same. Most of all the Brits seem to enjoy laughing at themselves.
For Scott, this is just one example:
“It’s the moralizing and the bogus justification that ring false”.
But without that the fund-raising would be seriously compromised. “Give me £10 to go on a mad-cap expedition because it’s there” is not a £-winner.
The system works just as well if you knock a few zeroes off. I am regularly approached by “Ranettes” or their mums wanting me to sponsor their daughters’ “trip to the Arctic to draw attention to climate change and polar bear extinction and to make valuable scientific measurements”. Basically I am subsidising Ranette’s holiday to a hotel in Svalbard and her side-excursion to a polar-bear photoshoot and keeping the adventure company in business. I don’t buy the scientific or environmental tag though I encourage travel in teenagers. It’s not so much a scam as a mutually acceptable (just) personal gift.
Ran’s trip is thus Ranette’s operation, writ large and conducted at corporate level, but presumably funding WWF war-chests rather that Ranette’s father’s bank balance.
mfo says:
March 5, 2013 at 12:50 am (Edit)
Take as an example the poem about the charge of the Lost Brigade into the valley of death, doomed by stupidity but ennobled by a dogged willingness to commit suicide in the service of England … in the US, we’re not that much into celebrating glorious losses like that.
Scott was a stubborn, ignorant man unwilling to learn from the wisdom of thousands of generations of people living in the North. As a result of his pig-headedness, he killed himself and his men in the process of gloriously and nobly losing the race to the Pole. In the US we have a special name for a glorious noble suicidal loser … we call them a “loser”.
And yet he was a British hero. Now he did indeed have the qualities for which he is revered … the dogged belief that British pluck and stubbornness and strength were enough to overcome all obstacles. He certainly had all of those qualities … but they were not enough to overmaster Nature, and he and his friends paid with their lives for his stupidity.
You want to know dumb? All along, it was planned that there would be four men in the final push to the pole, Scott plus three others. All the supplies, all the rations, all the packing of the sleds was done with that in mind. A larger number of men accompanied Scott carrying supplies to the final forward camp before the dash to the pole, where they would bid the final team of four goodbye.
And after they’ve gone all that way, Scott decides to take a fifth man along. They don’t have enough food for him, or enough kerosene, but Scott figures hey, we’ll just split things five ways instead of four, we’re tough, we can take it. They have to repack the sleds, they’re overloaded, and all along the way the food is screwed up. They’d packaged the rations in fours, but they needed fives, so they had to repack loose items each time. It was just one more thing that Scott thought they could brazen through… but they couldn’t take it, and instead the cold took them.
If it were my brother who died on that trip, I’d call Scott a murderer, that’s criminal negligence … and yet, he’s still a British hero. That’s the curiosity I was referring to. No disrespect to the British, I have lots and lots of friends from the island, and to me it’s actually an endearing quality, not one that I’d change. I like that admiration for the quality and strength of the struggle regardless of the outcome …
w.
Patrick says:
March 4, 2013 at 12:58 am
Interesting article. And what’s more interesting is the number of sponsors that are involved with supplying technology that uses energyor fossil fuels directly. But one that made me laugh was “Warmawear”.
“Warmawear are a leading worldwide manufacturer and supplier of heated clothing. The Warmawear range has been developed to gently circulate heat around the body using the latest battery technology. Our heated insoles and glove liners will be adapted to run off a strong central battery unit which will help to protect the explorers during the expedition.”
No kidding!
////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Why not have a space blanket suit, ie., a suit simply made out of a thin sheet of highly reflective material so all that back radiated heat keeps the wearer warm. Light and effective, hey??!!
Brett Keane says:
March 5, 2013 at 12:03 am
Thanks, Brett. I fully accept that Scott deserves respect for some things, but he wasn’t done in by supercold. It was cold, but not that cold, and that wasn’t Scott’s main problem. It was that he wasn’t prepared even for the normal cold.
In the book The Last Place on Earth, there’s a lovely juxtaposition of the log books for a period of time when Amundsen and Scott were in the same weather conditions in the same area. From memory Scott’s log goes something like:
Amundsen’s log, on the other hand, says:
I’m sure you can see the difficulty.
Similarly, only Scott was in “similar danger to the space pioneers”. Amundsen was no stranger to the dangers of the trip, he had been in those conditions many times, and had learned from those who lived in those conditions year-round.
For another example, when Scott was freezing to death in the supposedly unbearable conditions, Wikipedia reliably says:
Cherry-Garrard was sent out to find and resupply Scott, they were within a hundred miles of each other … and the supernatural cold didn’t stop Cherry-Garrard.
Scott was doomed by his insistence on things like ponies and wool coats and Army boots, not by some unbearable cold. One thing I learned in Alaska. There’s only two levels of clothing—Enough, and not enough, and the latter can kill you. Among many other deficiencies, Scott’s clothing was totally inadequate for the task.
And when that is the case, even plain old garden variety Antarctic cold will kill you, doesn’t require supercold at all.
w.
One wonders what changes in diet could have lead to Ran’s diabetes and subsequent frostbite. Grains, (pasteurized) dairy and seed oil, per chance?
From personal experience, I can only recommend looking into more traditional diets (and traditional food preparation methods) if you have health problem (or want to avoid some of them) – with the Paleo Diet maybe being the most traditional one.
(Here I am, a self-declared progressive and card-carrying communist, recommending traditional diets – go figure.)
Also: I would say Ran’ diabetes (though only a single data point) is living proof that an “active lifestyle” with lots of exercise won’t keep diabetes away.
If I had to bet, I would bet on diabetes being caused by exactly those foods that are recommended by the ADA and AHA as “anti-diabetic” and “heart-healthy”. If I had to choose a single food causing diabetes, I would bet on seed oils causing diabetes.
=So … that comment is long on passion, Bojan, but very short on data. Just what are you saying they will be doing in addition to taking elevations and snow samples?=
You guessed it, Willis. I am passionate about science. And why should I copy&paste all the section here when everybody can take a look? Everybody interested enough can take a look and see that you did not present a fair picture in your article.
So they are only taking snow samples? I guess Bill Gates is only a multibillioner, then, and theory of evolution is only a theory. I am passionate about science enough to know that it is cumulative. I find their science much in need.
But I see your need to downplay science and charity, since you need to play on ‘hypocrisy’ of burning fuel on nothing.
“Temperatures close to -90 C” – sounds like a bit of marketing hype. Typical temperatures along their route in winter will be in the mid -60’s, and it rarely drops below -70. It’s like announcing that you’re going to London in the depths of winter, and expect to encounter temperatures “close to -25 C”
The Russian base at Vostok, about 1000 miles away from their route, occasionally dips below -80 (-112 degrees F) and holds the world record of -89. Incidentally, it has just endured its coldest Februray since records began in 1958 with a mean of -48 C (-54 F), pretty much the same as the coldest parts of Siberia, and as already been pointed out – this is summer in the Antarctic, and Vostok has continuous daylight.
Bojan Dolinar says:
March 5, 2013 at 4:01 am
In other words, you agree with me that they are taking elevations and snow samples, but you don’t want people to know that? Am I reading this correctly?
I mean, I asked what else they are doing … and you’ve provided absolutely nothing, just repeated your previous claims, waved your hands, and said you are passionate about science. Impressive …
So what? Science is about facts, not passion, and you’ve provided exactly none so far.
Your passion is doing you a DISservice, Bojan, if it leads you to make claims like you did and then be unable to sustain, support, or back them up …
w.
Tony Mach says:
and
If I had to bet, I’d bet that diagnosing the cause of someone’s illness from reading news reports is the action of a food fanatic … give it up, Tony. You don’t have a clue why Ran has diabetes, and trying to peddle your unsupported speculations regarding your own pet theories of how to eat, in a discussion of climate and cold, just make you look like an SIF …
w.
An excerpt re severe frostbite from the journals of Priddy Meeks, a Utah doctor of the latter 1800s, that may help some WUWT reader in the future (unless frostbite is going to be a thing of the past, ha!):
(quoting) An incident took place in Parowan, Iron County, the same winter that Colonel Johnston came against Salt Lake City with the United States Army. There was a teamster by the name of James McCann, a young man, started to go back to the states by way of California. He reached Parowan with both feet frozen above his ankles. He was left with me to have both feet amputated as it was thought there was no possible chance to save his life without amputation. I was at my wits end to know what to do. I saw no possible chance for amputation. An impulse seemed to strike my mind as tho by inspiration that I would give him cayenne pepper inwardly and see what effect that would have on the frozen feet.
I commenced by giving him rather small doses at first, about three times a day. It increased the warmth and power of action in the blood to such a degree that it gave him such pain and misery in his legs that he could not bear it. He lay down on his back and elevated his feet up against the wall for three or four days and then he could sit up in a chair. The frozen flesh would rot and rope down from his foot when it would be on his knee, clear down to the floor, just like a buck-wheat batter, and the new flesh would form as fast as the dead flesh would get out of the way. In fact the new flesh would seem to crowd the dead flesh out of the way to make room for the new flesh.
That was all the medical treatment he had and to my astonishment and to every one else that knew of the circumstances, the sixteenth day after I gave him the first dose of pepper he walked nine miles, or from Parowan to Red Creek and back, and said that he could have walked as far again. He lost but five toe nails all told. Now the healing power of nature is in the blood and to accelerate the healing power of nature and I am convinced that there is nothing will do this like cayenne pepper; you will find it applicable in all cases of sickness.
Willis, they might be speculations, but I don’t think they are unsupported. Let’s wait another couple of decades, then we know how diabetes (and all the other diseases considered to be “disease of civilization”) are caused.
Doesn’t matter, I stated what I consider my informed opinion, take it, leave it, say diabetes does not have a cause, say diabetes is figured out already fully by medical science, say diabetes is caused by something else that I know nothing of – do as you wish, won’t change anything anyway.
And after looking up SIF: Willis, was that necessary?
One more thing, you once wrote: “My nose for numbers said that Hansen’s claims were way out of line.” Let’s say what I have learned from over the last two and half years tells me that the claims by the ADA and AHA with regards to healthy nutrition are way out of line. I think what the ADA and AHA (and all the others) do is wrong, and dangerously wrong, and that makes me a food fanatic? What are you then? A climate fanatic?
I try to tell the truth as I see it, and I might be wrong – what’s the difference to what you do?
Willis, no need to spend so many words and assumptions. All I did was to spur other readers to check the Science section to see whether yours was a fair assessment:
http://www.thecoldestjourney.org/home/science/
Only one example: elevation measurements are very important for satellite calibration. Since they are used for ice loss/gain measurements I would certainly regard this as global.
Yes, science is also about facts, but independent measurements are better than only one kind of measurements.
Tony Mach says:
March 6, 2013 at 12:56 pm
Perhaps not necessary … but certainly accurate. Why else would you clutter up a thread about the use of climate hype to sell expeditions, with your very personal views on nutrition?
w.
Tony Mach says:
March 6, 2013 at 1:03 pm
What’s the difference?
The difference is, you want to do it on my thread, which about a totally different subject. I don’t clutter up your blog posts about diabetes and nutrition with my speculations about climate. That would be a hijack.
All I ask is that you return the favor.
w.