Dr. Ryan Maue posted one of his WeatherBell analysis maps on Twitter today, and the result is no Headline maker, it is simply “normal”.
He writes (image follows):
February 2013 global temperature anomaly compared to 1981-2010 mean: -0.001°C or 1/1000th of a degree below avg.
It will be interesting to see what the other climate data sources show for February.
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Theo Goodwin says: “Well, they had to keep it in the Top Ten. PR, you know. In Virginia, it was just about normal.”
Where can I find the state-wide statistics for Virginia for Jan-2013?
And is it your claim that Hadley deliberately altered the number for PR purposes?
What is your evidence of this?
UAH also showed a very warm month for the LT. Did they too alter the numbers?
Phobos says:
February 28, 2013 at 9:24 pm
Theo Goodwin says: “Well, they had to keep it in the Top Ten. PR, you know. In Virginia, it was just about normal.”
“Where can I find the state-wide statistics for Virginia for Jan-2013?”
Typical Alarmist presumption. Do not ask me for anything.
My immediate response was hey the new normal is normal. But as I scrolled down preparing to post it there’s Willis.
Willis Eschenbach says:
February 28, 2013 at 8:09 pm
Thanks, Ryan. I guess normal is the new normal …
All the best, nice tweet,
w.
I feel compelled to out normal him? Tough task.
Now that things are normal again, (whew! thank God) are we supposed to start over and whatever observations show over the next 20 years we should pretend it’s going to accelerate and lead to our doom?
Because that is the new normal?
I must be getting the wrong map or something. I see a USA that is colder than it is supposed to be, with greens and blues. That’s below normal, right?
How is that possible? Maybe it has something to do with this: “I am absolutely certain that generations from now, we will be able to look back and tell our children … this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal.” [B. Obama, 2008]
“generations from now” – in only 5 years. Remarkable. Back to my room now.
A Mann named Michael: Sky is falling, Sky is falling, global temperatures are Normal. Oh my, there goes all our GW Alarmist funding…
/sarc
Phobos says:
February 28, 2013 at 9:19 pm
“Why should they?
The difference is just a constant, easily calculated.”
I suppose it would helpful to state what that “constant” is then. Although each every-10-year-update produces a new “constant” – but then, that’s not a constant, is it? I think that would be called a variable – “Quite so.” Besides, how does knowing this number make a correct visual presentation (map) out of an incorrect one? Why not just make a correct map – worth a thousand words?
Anyway, insofar as an arithmetic mean is pulled toward the extreme values we can expect that by including the hot temperatures of the 20-00s the mean for comparison (calculation of anomaly) would be higher and the anomalies lower. I realize you know that, but some statistically challenged readers might not. Here’s the key idea:
“The mean has one main disadvantage: it is particularly susceptible to the influence of outliers.”
https://statistics.laerd.com/statistical-guides/measures-central-tendency-mean-mode-median.php
Phobos says:
February 28, 2013 at 9:19 pm
Bob Tisdale says:
“I wonder when GISS, and UKMO, and NOAA for their global temperature products will start using 1981-2010 as base years for anomalies as recommended by the WMO. Probably never.”
Why should they?
The difference is just a constant, easily calculated.
————————————————————
And of course Joe Public will grab pen and paper and calculate?
Which planet are you on?
1) That’s not what was expected by the majority of warmists before snowfall kept up.
2) Is humidity rising? I read somewhere that it was falling. (But maybe that was in the upper layers.)
Given the following Great news:
“February 2013 global temperature anomaly compared to 1981-2010 mean: -0.001°C or 1/1000th of a degree below avg.”
Should we not be hearing calls for Celebration from the Greenies, GW Climatologists, our respective Governments, and U.N.’s IPCC? Isn’t this the kind of news they would all greatly welcome? As in no need for – radical actions, infrastructural changes, society/living modifications, draconian taxes, trillions in new spending, or panicked quest for cheap clean power.
The crickets chirping tells us all we need to know about the aforementioned entities and their true agendas. Global Warming was a huge Con, a global Scam that gave each of the entities what they wanted – grants, funding, taxes, control, and power over citizens of planet Earth.
“(Please show your work.)”
Please show how it is anything other than normal. That it is anything other than a phase.
MSM rushes into the next meme:
1 March: Australian: AFP: Carbon dioxide and warming lock-step in last Ice Age
Writing in the US journal, Science, a team led by French glaciologist Frederic Parrenin looked at ice from five deep drilling expeditions in Antarctica…
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/carbon-dioxide-and-warming-lock-step-in-last-ice-age/story-e6frg8y6-1226588345935
28 Feb: NYT: Justin Gillis: Study of Ice Age Bolsters Carbon and Warming Link
A meticulous new analysis of Antarctic ice suggests that the sharp warming that ended the last ice age occurred in lock step with increases of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the latest of many indications that the gas is a powerful influence on the earth’s climate…
The latest paper was led by Frédéric Parrenin of the University of Grenoble, in France, and is scheduled for publication on Friday in the journal Science…
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/01/science/earth/at-ice-age-end-a-smaller-gap-in-warming-and-carbon-dioxide.html?_r=0
[snip – arguing about an off topic issue with a rant – mod]
Phobos
Why should they?
The difference is just a constant, easily calculated.
Then why did the WMO make the recommendation? Perhaps you could read it and report back on why you are wrong?
What is causing this “climbing?”
And how much longer will it continue? (Please show your work.)
Well actually temps have been “climbing” for about 400 years since the LIA at pretty much the same rate, but have tapered off in the last few decades despite CO2 increases. Why? (Please show your work)
and is it your claim that Hadley deliberately altered the number for PR purposes?
What is your evidence of this?
UAH also showed a very warm month for the LT. Did they too alter the numbers?
Apparently you fail to understand the difference between reporting the data and spinning the data out of context for PR purposes. On second thought, based on your commentary in this and other threads…. I think you do.
Rockyroad–didn’t know Phobos was being sarcastic until I read your answer–he wrote, HadCRUT4 just posted their January data today: 9th-warmest January in 164 years. Odd that it should be that high….
Because I do think its odd. I posted all the record lows for January and December over on Spencer’s site–I simply can’t understand how there have been so many bitterly cold countrys week after week for two months and then have them reported on the warm side of the anomaly—I truly don’t get it. Russia had record cold, India, Japan, Alaska, Germany, Asia, china, –bitterly cold Dec and Jan– and the globe was warm? For heaven’s sake–we made an all time record in the NH–91 below zero! http://publicpost.ru/theme/id/3284/oymyakon (granted that was this month–but still its indicative of what’s been happening this winter)
Something is not right. And the explanation of more high records than low and higher low records isn’t going to cut it in the face of so many record lows reported.
Phobos, how about you tell us why you think its odd that Jan was the 9th highest? And pls show the link to global humidity? You seem to have endless time to spend on this, so please share your leanings.
Thanks in advance
Well, here in Australia, today’s big news according to our BOM (Met Bureau) and ABC (Govt owned media), is that we (Australia) have just had our hottest summer on record (due to an extended heatwave in mid-January). The BOM official making the announcement was happy to add that if CO2 emissions continue at their present rate, this record heat will become the new “normal” for Aussie summers. No mention of cold winter temps in the northern hemisphere, of course.
Moreover, with the remnants of cyclones (hurricanes) on both east and west coasts currently dumping large amounts of rain and providing widespread cloud cover, temperatures have dropped to very unseasonably low levels in many areas of this country.
In my many decades of experience of Australian summers they are all hot (except when they aren’t). The real concern here is not the hot summer temperatures per se, but how much rain we get and where it happens to fall.
I’m calling out “Phobos” as a paid spammer, albeit an academic one. Maybe even a name we all know. Hmm, Phobos – Deimos – Mars – ???
Phobos says:
February 28, 2013 at 8:39 pm
If global humidity is increasing, but winter temperatures are still below freezing, what would you expect but more snowfall in winter…?
===============
You mean clouds don’t you? Increased clouds? You can’t have snow without clouds, regardless of the humidity. And with increased clouds you get increased albedo and reduced solar radiation reaching the surface and increased cooling. Negative feedback. And increased snowfall is the evidence.
The climate models have it wrong. They ALL assume positive feedback without any observational justification, when common sense tells you that life would have gone extinct on earth long ago when CO2 levels much higher than at present. If GHG theory is correct, the high levels of CO2 only 10 million years ago as compared to the present would have cooked all life on earth.
I’m happy to report this didn’t happen, which goes to show that in climate science, there is nothing quite so rare as common sense.
Phobos – whatever nits you choose to pick, the fact remains that the 21st century has not seen the warming predicted by the models, AGW theory or spokesfolks for the ‘consensus’. Nor was this predicted by any of the above.
Something needs to change in the light of this, dontchathink?
Thank you Phobos for asking probing, pertinent questions. There’s too much groupthink going on here. This is not SkS. Contrary views are indispensable for a healthy, informed debate.
Steven Mosher says:
February 28, 2013 at 10:52 pm
[snip]
=============
The difference between WUWT and the snivelers at Real Climate. At RC they don’t have the gumption to at least let everyone know they snipped your comment. They simply delete the comment – but strangely leave in the replies to your comment.
How folks can reply to a censored comment at RC puzzled me until it became obvious. RC is manufacturing their own replies internally. How low is their popularity, how irrelevant their science, when they need to manufacture their own traffic?
OK – Wait a minute… The trend for global sea ice has been in a slight decline over the entire record. But the long term average value is LOWER now than it used to be. If you drew a trend line through the entire series, that line would have a slope to it. The “average” line by definition has no slope since it shows the average of all data. Am I worried about this variability in climate… no.
OK – anyway, I do not deny that the climate changes. However, we should be skeptical of those who say CO2 is driving the climate in a measurable way. Let’s be careful here!
Here in Oz there was one news service that said we had the hottest summer evah and another news service said we had the wettest summer evah. So does that mean we have moved closer to the equator??
Okay the temps are normal, but what about all the EXTREME weathrer going on everywhere. That’s the true signal of AGW, /sarc
John F. Hultquist at 10:18 pm. Once I analyzed the GHCN data using medians in stead of means. The results were that surprising that I did not believe my eyes. Are there examples in the literature? The outlier issue may be decisive.