Oh Dear, Another Climate Scientist Makes A Fool Of Himself
Guest post by Paul Homewood
I sometimes get accused of being too dismissive of Climate Scientists, probably with justice. However, there are times when they just set themselves up to be shot down.
The Irish Times, (yes, don’t ask me why!!) has just run a report from Courtland, Kansas on the drought last year. Most of the farmers interviewed believe it is all just part of a natural cycle. One typical farmer was quoted
“In western Kansas we sit to the east of the Rocky Mountains, where it is drier. I remember the 1955/56 drought and 1988. My dad went through the 1930s and had to move to the west coast,” said Ron Neff, a farmer in Selden, 150 miles west of Courtland.
But apparently the scientists know better!
Chuck Rice, a professor of soil microbiology and a climate change expert at Kansas State University in Manhattan, Kansas, says there is no doubt that droughts are cyclical but temperatures clocked last year in the most recent dry spell have beaten historical records.
“The records weren’t just slightly broken; they were significantly higher,” he said.
Now you would have thought a Climate Scientist from a Kansas University would at the very least be familiar with Kansas historical climate records. Unfortunately, it seems not, though.
The Facts (for Chuck’s benefit)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/ks.html
Let’s start at the state level. Kansas summer temperatures last year ranked 110 out of 118, in other words, 9th warmest since 1895. The hottest summer was 1934, with an average temperature of 83.2F, a full 4.0F higher than last year. 1936 followed in 2nd place with 82.2F.
What about July, the hottest month of the season? Last year was 7th warmest. Again, 1934 was hottest, 2.4F hotter than 2012. The second hottest year, interestingly, was 1980, closely followed by 1954 and 1936.
Of course, averages can cover up a multitude of sins, so what about the extremes? According to the Climatological Data for July 1934, (below)
“Temperatures of 110F or higher occurred in almost every part of the State”.
This is borne out by the data for individual stations. Out of 91 stations, 76 reached 110F. Figures for 1936 were very similar, 77 out of 89. And what about 2012? Just 15 out of 145.
KS_climate_IPS-A48BA846-7987-4DC1-BA33-7B3AFA52FF09 (PDF)
From NCDC IPS: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/cd/cd.html
The highest temperature ever recorded in Kansas, was 121F, set on two separate days in 1936 at Fredonia and Alton. We also know that, analysing the 28 USHCN stations in Kansas with long term data, 27 recorded temperatures in the 1930’s that were higher than anything registered last year.
Still, perhaps the good Professor was referring to his own particular part of Kansas, which the article was based on. Courtland is a small town in the northern part of the State. The weather station there only dates back to 1961. The nearest station with a long term record is Concordia, about 20 miles away. (It is also close to Manhattan, where Kansas State University is based).
Comparison of monthly mean temperatures at Concordia show:-
| 1934 | 1936 | 2012 | |
| June | 80.3 | 76.8 | 76.5 |
| July | 88.4 | 87.2 | 84.3 |
| August | 82.5 | 85.2 | 74.6 |
And a closer look at July numbers shows:-
| 1934 | 1936 | 2012 | |
| Highest Temperature | 114 | 113 | 107 |
| Average Maximum Temperature | 101.7 | 100.5 | 97.8 |
| Days =>105F | 15 | 10 | 3 |
At the Professor’s town of Manhattan, temperatures reached 115F in both 1934 and 1936. And last year? 107F!
So what have we got?
On a State wide basis:-
- Mean temperatures were much higher in both 1934 and 1936, than in 2012, for the summer as a whole, and July in particular.
- Extreme high temperatures were far more widespread in 1934 and 1936.
- At nearly every USHCN station, the top temperatures, set in both 1934 and 1936, were several degrees higher than 2012.
And on a local scale?
- Mean temperature for each summer month at Concordia was significantly higher in 1934 and 1936.
- Daytime temperatures were also much higher then.
- Extreme heat days were between three and five times as frequent.
- High temperatures were up to 7F higher.
Conclusions?
We have a Professor at Kansas State University making statements that are not simply inaccurate, but wildly wrong. What could be the explanation?
- Is he simply incompetent? This seems unlikely, he would hardly be a Professor, if so.
- Does he think, a la Hayhoe, that history started in 1960?
- Is he blind to any evidence that contradicts his agenda?
- Like the old Soviets, has he swallowed the propaganda, and cannot believe it was hotter in the past?
- Is he even aware that the records I have accessed are available? Does he know how to check them himself?
- Has the climate gravy train really got so bad, that “science” of this sort is acceptable?
- Or does he think it is OK to make up “facts” as he goes along, so long as they suit his agenda? (Safe in the knowledge that our lame stream media are too useless and babyish to check and contradict).
Whatever the answer, it is a sad day for science, in general, and climate science, in particular, when this sort of nonsense is promulgated, and furthermore, allowed to stand.
References
State Climatological Reports are available here.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/cd/cd.html
http://www.k-state.edu/media/mediaguide/bios/ricebio.html
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I condone the outing of obvious intentionally misleading information. Out every darn one of them as possible and expose the truth they hide. The pervasive nature of things that continue to occur, and directly impact peoples opinions, should be vetted each and every time.
Just look at the politics in the US and the half truths they all bring to the table as fact. It seems science has now entered the political and deception realm in full force.
Just look at what the low information voters did to the US for the next 4 years. They will again fall prey to the same mantra the progressives/liberals/greenies emote over and over, but this time as victims of CAGW if nothing is done to counter the lies. At least the POTUS told the truth when he state that he would not raise taxes one dime. He didn’t, he did 2% for starters and got gas back to $4/gal, let alone the pull through costs attached to everything people purchase due to energy costs Quote “Necessarily skyrocketing”.
I would place a wager that not one single climate scientist who preaches CAGW could pass a lie detector test, not one!
Bring on the polygraph and let’s see who is truthful and who is just plain brainwashed.
End of rant, everyone can take the rest of the week off now 🙂
He’s passing on popular, “generally known” opinions as facts, the sort of thing we used to do grousing around the watercooler. Now it is tweeted, blogged and interviewed, but the quality is no different.
If Darwin were alive today, the fight for “consensus” science and what “everybody knows to be true, so I don’t have to verify it” would be a drama, indeed!
The Irish Times piece was probably recycled from a UK newspaper who recycled it from somewhere else. All this is done by the ubiquitous journalist Phil Space
“Is he simply incompetent? This seems unlikely, he would hardly be a Professor, if so.”
I know others have already noted this statement, but this must be the most naive statement I have ever read on this site. I would argue that small academic institutions provide refuge for all kinds of incompetents.
Jim Rose – I appreciate your concern, and wish that it were possible to keep strictly to the underlying climate science. Unfortunately, the goalposts keep shifting. First they gave us Global Warming, then it became Climate Change, then it became Extreme Weather Events, and goodness knows where it’s heading next. To score a goal, it’s no good aiming where the goalposts used to be. So, when ‘they’ get an Extreme Weather Event wrong, that’s what has to be addressed.
However, I hope you will note that despite his obvious contempt for the appallingly low standards displayed in the offending article, Paul Homewood has kept very much to the facts of the matter, and has presented a very thorough, and thoroughly factual, analysis.
Please also bear in mind that the offending article contained these words “temperatures clocked last year in the most recent dry spell have beaten historical records. The records weren’t just slightly broken; they were significantly higher“. Paul Homewood has addressed that statement scientifically, with actual historical data applied to every reasonable interpretation. It is hard to see how he could have addressed it in any much better way.
I hope a copy of this article went to the people who pay his wages, and to the Irish Times.
There’s no penalty for lying, so people will keep lying, because it works.
More signs of “climate extremes”.
http://www.euronews.com/sport/1830368-play-suspended-at-match-play-due-to-snow/
Now, this ain’t near Flagstaff, it’s just outside Tuscon (32 deg latitude).
This disconnection from history is essential to climate alarmism, and to all the most pernicious fads and mass impulses. The New Man at Year Zero is allowed to refer to the past but never look at it.
I can’t help but remember a couple of quotes from Idiocracy,
Joe: I’m pretty sure what’s killing the crops is this Brawndo stuff.
Secretary of State: But Brawndo’s got what plants crave. It’s got electrolytes.
@ur momisugly Jim Rose, on the contrary, I find it is ample time to plunge the nose of these loud mouths in their own juices. We can afterwards question their motives, but their words should be under scrutiny and exposed for what they are when they are blattantly false.
Who’s to blame for such poor quality researchers with Ph.D.s? Their doctoral committee for such poor oversite, and journal editors for such poor quality control. If it is any measure of what we are getting from within the Ivory Towers, I refer you to the Whatworksclearinghouse website. Far more PUBLISHED studies are rejected rather than reviewed by that site. Shouldn’t that be the otherwayaround? If research is truly about quality, most studies that get published should be unimpeachable. That they are not also points the finger at us for continuing to fund such institutions of inferior merit.
Hah, you can’t fool me! I just finished reading somewhere else on this very site that warmer air has more moisture. Therefore it wasn’t actually a drought. Nope. Couldn’t have been, since the air is more damp these days than it used to be.
Seriously, I’d kinda like to hear the Prof explain his obviously incorrect and ideologically motivated statements.
(PS… unrelated, but did anyone else notice al-Gore hosted a category on Jeopardy last night?)
@jim
Turning a blind eye to any individual who perverts science is not the way to stop it. The facts have been presented again and again for years, which the CAGW-ists ignore as they continue to build their empires on the destruction of economies the world over. Chuck Rice is on that bandwagon. He’s out to make a buck and to spread misinformation and disrupt civilization. When would it be okay to get a tad upset about that?
Posted Comment at the Irish TImes
“(PS… unrelated, but did anyone else notice al-Gore hosted a category on Jeopardy last night?)”
Hyperbole for 200 Alex.
i believe that a new derogatory phrase is entering the scientific vocabulary.
Its Climate Science.
Perhaps it will even replace Lysenkoism.
Eugene WR Gallun
Peter Stroud says:
February 20, 2013 at 4:27 pm
This travesty should be reported in the MSM. But, we know that this will not happen? One can only hope that some day soon a newspaper, magazine, a TV news channel or even a nation wide TV network will begin to give time for such stories.
==================
Factual reports such as this on the Internet carry weight. if only the weight of a straw, eventually enough straw will break the strongest camel.
WUWT is read widely. Sent you elected representatives a letter telling them you don’t agree with further funding of nonsense. Ask for a copy of their voting record and an explanation of where they stand on the issue of giving more money.
@ur momisugly Jim; I would suggest you don’t come to WUWT unprepared. In your case I would recommend a hardhat, chest protector, and a cup!!! There must be a site where it is acceptable for so-called scientists are able to bulls&@ur momisuglyt there science, but not here. We all await your reply. Make it strong!
Was he referring to the whole year or just the summer months? I can’t tell from his quotes. How does 2012 in general look compared to 1934 and 1936?
It is really difficult to understand why these ‘climate scientists’ persist in making claims of imminent catastrophe that even basic fact checking shows are false and misleading. They carry this message to even less ethical politicians who, as we have seen in the State of the Union address, use the advice of these ‘scientists’ as justification for their policies on energy and taxation.
The result of this joint action by climate ‘scientists’ and politicians?:
600,000 Households In Germany Without Power – “Increasing Energy Poverty Is Alarming”
By P Gosselin on 23. Februar 2012
Here’s Germany’s solution to saving energy and reducing its carbon foortprint- make electricity affordable only to a few rich people! German online DIE WELT daily has an article titled: Hundreds Of Thousands Have Had Their Power Turned Off.
http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/energie/article13879599/Hunderttausenden-Haushalten-wird-der-Strom-gesperrt.html
Cold homes will kill up to 200 older people a day, warns Age UK
Rising energy bills will put millions at risk from ‘fuel poverty gap’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2011/oct/22/older-people-cold-energy-bills
There are warnings of rolling power cuts and hugely rising energy prices – (they will necessarily sky rocket).
So the result of these climate ‘scientists’ trying to make a name for themselves and increase their grant income is that people are actually dying right now of the cold. Note COLD not warm.
I do not find people being forced to choose between heating and eating and dying of cold in ‘first world’ countries so a professor can get tenure or increased funding a simple ‘political matter’.
This is a fundamental failure of scientific ethics.
It is so obvious that the mainstream media is actively involved in misinformation. Newspeople that don’t tow the line are shunned and could find themselves unemployed. Lefties naturally gravitate to positions where they feel that they can actively influence public opinion. There is a natural selection process involved… selecting state power loving people. Without the $billions of free propaganda provided by the press, the statist Democratic party would rarely hold majorities at the federal level. Lies told by fellow “scientist” statists will never be “called out” by those in the press. The press isn’t lazy or incompetent, the “press” is actively involved in propagating these lies. The “propaganda press” is THE greatest threat to our personal freedoms.
I have to admit that it still puzzles me that so many scientists from academia publish reports/papers with obvious errors and exaggerations that are rather easy to refute. Paul did a masterful job of collecting and proving that Mr Rice has numerous errors. I would really like the author to explain on this blog what appears to be gross errors.
We have had a huge problem for years with politicans like Al Gore who either knowingly or un knowingly make wild claims regarding climate change and global warming just as the Sec of State did yesterday. Even the SOTU address was so short of facts with little correction by the media. The integrity of so many scientists and politicians has been shreaded especially with the attempts to ignore the pause in warming.
Unfortunately not enough people have the exposure to see through what is going on at this time with the CAGW world, and the political agenda if sucessful could ruin the USA and other countries.
When I started studying the CO2 claims in a skeptical way about 15 years ago, I was uncertain because of the many claims by so called top scientists. Something didn’t smell right, but I had a lot of trouble believing that so many were not honest. Similarly I had lots of friends that took a long time to come around and accept the convincing facts that I sent them from WUWT , they too had confidence in the scientists and the IPCC especially members of the Academies.
Bottom line, it is extremely disappointing that so many scientists and academics have become so corrupted by the $$$ in global warming. The fact that they defended or were silent on the hockey stick took the cake. It appears they were so invested in a fraud and coud not get out gracefully. The communty of all honest scientists and engineers have lost the respect for the CAGW folks and the confidence in that community has been permanently damaged.
Thank you Anthony and others for your tireless energy to get the truth out.
Sending out information from you posts is very convincing to an open mind.
@ur momisugly jim Rose, climate science or this rubbish passed off as science, stopped being funny years ago.
The decay within our governments that CAGW is a poster child for, should sicken every tax payer and civic minded person.
Climatology has been clearly exposed as a scam disguised as a religion, cloaked in science for stealth advocacy purposes. No amount of evidence, no collapse of correlation and no amount of logic works on the faithful.
The high priests keep moving the goal posts and lying, the faithful keep buying and the remedy remains the same. The cure for Global cooling, Catastrophic anthropogenic global warming, Climate Change, global climatic disruption and next weeks weather has at least been constant.
The cure is for us non-believing heathens to give the righteous all our money and go back to the caves.Abandon our wealth and comfortable extended lives.
The only cure for these delusional nitwits, who are the bulk of the enablers of this secular anti-humanist movement, is ridicule.
Lots of ridicule, derision and contempt.
Those so stupid that they willfully conspire to destroy civilization deserve to get what they work for, however most of us are better than that, so ridicule is the kindest treatment we can offer.
When enough people are snickering at you, eventually you start to wonder why.
Which of course was the intent of the PR campaign to dismiss any and all who questioned the cause as evil,uneducated, bottom feeders.
What was that Fenton PR plan???
Based on the media frenzy of lies and hysteria over weather, all the team has left is disinformation, which attracts ridicule, as that is the only sane response when confronted with pathological liars.
The 1934 data just hasnt been appropriately adjusted yet…