Global Warming To Bring Colder/Warmer Winters

By Paul Homewood

It seems that every time we get some snow, another “scientist” is wheeled out to explain that, no matter how cold it gets, it is all down to global warming.

In the last week or so, we have had the International Arctic Research Centre announcing a study by three Chinese scientists, “Weakened cyclones, intensified anticyclones and recent extreme cold winter weather events in Eurasia “, with the headline “Climate change brings colder winters to Europe and Asia”. Then, we had WWF Russia blaming the blizzards in Russia on global warming.

But let’s, for one moment, remind ourselves of some of the “scientists” who have said the exact opposite.

UK Met Office

As recently as 2011, Julia Slingo and her team published an extremely thorough paper, “Climate: Observations, projections and impacts”. Running to some 153 pages, it looked at recent trends and future projections, both for the UK and the rest of the world. It made the following points:-

  • Analysis of mean temperatures in the UK showed a warming trend during the winter months of 0.23C/decade.
  • Describing the extreme cold in December 2010, it states:-

Severe winter weather affected Western and Central Europe throughout the first three weeks of December 2010, with the UK experiencing the coldest December for more than 100 years. This extreme cold weather was due to advection of cold arctic air associated with a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation.

The UK experienced two spells of severe winter weather with very low temperatures and significant snowfalls. The first of these spells lasted for two weeks from 25th November and saw persistent easterly or north-easterly winds bring bitterly cold air from northern Europe and Siberia. This spell of snow and freezing temperatures occurred unusually early in the winter, with the most significant and widespread snowfalls experienced in late November and early December since late November 1965. a second spell of severe weather began on 16th December as very cold Arctic air pushed down across the UK from the north.

  • Continuing its analysis of the 2010/11 winter, it finds that:-

The distributions of the December-January-February (DJF) mean regional temperature in recent years in the presence and absence of anthropogenic forcings are shown in Figure 7. Analyses with both models suggest that human influences on the climate have shifted the distributions to higher temperatures. The winter of 2010/11 is cold, as shown in Figure 7, as it lies near the cold tail of the seasonal temperature distribution for the climate influenced by anthropogenic forcings (distributions plotted in red). It is considerably warmer than the winter of 1962/63, which is the coldest since 1900 in the CRUTEM3 dataset. In the absence of human influences (green distributions), the season lies near the central sector of the temperature distribution and would therefore be an average season.

image

  • The winter time-series show a decrease in the number of cool days and cool nights.

So, to summarise, the Met Office believed that winters have been getting warmer, and that the winter of 2010/11 was caused by a natural event, the Arctic Oscillation, and, but for “human influences”, would actually have been a fairly average winter. (According to NOAA, similar conditions existed during the even colder winter in the UK of 1962/63).

Dr Myles Allen, and a few more!

In 2009, Dr Myles Allen, head of the Climate Dynamics group at Department of Physics, University of Oxford told the Daily Telegraph, during another spell of bad snow “Even though this is quite a cold winter by recent standards it is still perfectly consistent with predictions for global warming. If it wasn’t for global warming this cold snap would happen much more regularly. What is interesting is that we are now surprised by this kind of weather. I doubt we would have been in the 1950s because it was much more common. “

The report goes on to say “a study by the Met Office which went back 350 years shows that such extreme weather now only occurs every 20 years. Back in the pre-industrial days of Charles Dickens, it was a much more regular occurrence – hitting the country on average every five years or so.

This winter seems so bad precisely because it is now so unusual. In contrast the deep freezes of 1946-47 and 1962-63 were much colder – 5.3 F (2.97C) and 7.9 F (4.37C) cooler than the long-term norm.

And with global warming we can expect another 1962-63 winter only once every 1,100 years, compared with every 183 years before 1850. “

Meanwhile Dave Britton, a meteorologist and climate scientist at the Met Office, said: “Even with global warming you cannot rule out we will have a cold winter every so often. It sometimes rains in the Sahara but it is still a desert.”

Even Bob Ward, PR man for the warmist Grantham Foundation, keen to stop people thinking that cold winters did not mean global warming had stopped, said “Just as the wet summer of 2007 or recent heat waves cannot be attributed to global warming nor can this cold snap”

Don’t forget NCAR & NOAA!

Over in the US, they were just as keen to keep on message. An article in Phys.Org, “Experts: Cold snap doesn’t disprove global warming”, which was published in January 2010, had this to say:-

Whatever happened to global warming? Such weather doesn’t seem to fit with warnings from scientists that the Earth is warming because of greenhouse gases. But experts say the cold snap doesn’t disprove global warming at all – it’s just a blip in the long-term heating trend. “It’s part of natural variability,” said Gerald Meehl, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. With global warming, he said, “we’ll still have record cold temperatures. We’ll just have fewer of them.” Deke Arndt of the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., noted that 2009 will rank among the 10 warmest years for Earth since 1880. Scientists say man-made climate change does have the potential to cause more frequent and more severe weather extremes, such as heat waves, storms, floods, droughts and even cold spells. But experts interviewed by The Associated Press did not connect the current frigid blast to climate change. So what is going on? “We basically have seen just a big outbreak of Arctic air” over populated areas of the Northern Hemisphere, Arndt said. “The Arctic air has really turned itself loose on us.” In the atmosphere, large rivers of air travel roughly west to east around the globe between the Arctic and the tropics. This air flow acts like a fence to keep Arctic air confined. But recently, this air flow has become bent into a pronounced zigzag pattern, meandering north and south. If you live in a place where it brings air up from the south, you get warm weather. In fact, record highs were reported this week in Washington state and Alaska. But in the eastern United States, like some other unlucky parts of the globe, Arctic air is swooping down from the north. And that’s how you get a temperature of 3 degrees in Beijing, a reading of minus-42 in mainland Norway, and 18 inches of snow in parts of Britain, where a member of Parliament who said the snow “clearly indicates a cooling trend” was jeered by colleagues. The zigzag pattern arises naturally from time to time, but it is not clear why it’s so strong right now, said Michelle L’Heureux, a meteorologist at the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The center says the pattern should begin to weaken in a week or two. Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for Weather Underground, a forecasting service, said he expects more typical winter weather across North America early next week. That will be welcome news in the South, where farmers have been trying to salvage millions of dollars’ worth of strawberries and other crops. On Miami Beach, tourists bundled up in woolen winter coats and hooded sweatshirts Wednesday beneath a clear blue sky. Some brazenly let the water wash over their feet and a few even lay out in bikinis and swimming trunks. A brisk wind blew and temperatures hovered in the 50s. “Last year we were swimming every day,” said Olivia Ruedinger of Hamburg, Germany. “I miss that.” Read more at: http://phys.org/news182026415.html#jCp

Whatever happened to global warming? Such weather doesn’t seem to fit with warnings from scientists that the Earth is warming because of greenhouse gases. But experts say the cold snap doesn’t disprove global warming at all – it’s just a blip in the long-term heating trend.

It’s part of natural variability,” said Gerald Meehl, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. With global warming, he said, “we’ll still have record cold temperatures. We’ll just have fewer of them.”

Deke Arndt of the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., noted that 2009 will rank among the 10 warmest years for Earth since 1880. Scientists say man-made climate change does have the potential to cause more frequent and more severe weather extremes, such as heat waves, storms, floods, droughts and even cold spells. But experts interviewed by The Associated Press did not connect the current frigid blast to climate change.

So what is going on? “We basically have seen just a big outbreak of Arctic air” over populated areas of the Northern Hemisphere, Arndt said. “The Arctic air has really turned itself loose on us.”

In the atmosphere, large rivers of air travel roughly west to east around the globe between the Arctic and the tropics. This air flow acts like a fence to keep Arctic air confined. But recently, this air flow has become bent into a pronounced zigzag pattern, meandering north and south. If you live in a place where it brings air up from the south, you get warm weather. In fact, record highs were reported this week in Washington state and Alaska.

But in the eastern United States, like some other unlucky parts of the globe, Arctic air is swooping down from the north. And that’s how you get a temperature of 3 degrees in Beijing, a reading of minus-42 in mainland Norway, and 18 inches of snow in parts of Britain, where a member of Parliament who said the snow “clearly indicates a cooling trend” was jeered by colleagues.

 The zigzag pattern arises naturally from time to time, but it is not clear why it’s so strong right now, said Michelle L’Heureux, a meteorologist at the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Conclusion?

It seems to me that these these theories, that global warming will lead to colder winters, need to pass three tests before they can even cross the starting line:-

1) Explain how winters were as colder, or colder, and as snowy or snowier, in earlier periods such as the 1960’s and 70’s, when the NH was cooling, and Arctic ice expanding.

2) Explain how winters grew milder in the 1990’s and early 2000’s, at a time when the earth was warming, and Arctic ice was declining.

3) Prove what was wrong with earlier models that predicted milder winters.

Until these tests are passed, the theories really don’t get off the ground.

Footnote

Looking more closely at the Chinese study, mentioned above, by Zhang, Lu and Guan, their abstract states:-

Extreme cold winter weather events over Eurasia have occurred more frequently in recent years in spite of a warming global climate. To gain further insight into this regional mismatch with the global mean warming trend, we analyzed winter cyclone and anticyclone activities, and their interplay with the regional atmospheric circulation pattern characterized by the semi-permanent Siberian high. We found a persistent weakening of both cyclones and anticyclones between the 1990s and early 2000s, and a pronounced intensification of anticyclone activity afterwards. It is suggested that this intensified anticyclone activity drives the substantially strengthening and northwestward shifting/expanding Siberian high, and explains the decreased midlatitude Eurasian surface air temperature and the increased frequency of cold weather events. The weakened tropospheric midlatitude westerlies in the context of the intensified anticyclones would reduce the eastward propagation speed of Rossby waves, favoring persistence and further intensification of surface anticyclone systems.

Their methodology also tells us that the data used is from 1979-2012.

What they are saying then is that, in the 1990’s, conditions changed to a weakened state of cyclones and anticyclones, and therefore milder winters. In the last few years, it has changed back to a strengthened state. Although they have not analysed data back, at least, to the 1960’s, (which seems an amazing omission, that hugely undermines their work), the implication is clear, that recent conditions have returned to close to the ones that existed prior to 1990.

But none of that stops Zhang from saying “Decreased sea-ice cover favours further extension of warm air into the central Arctic Ocean. When this warm air propagates to the lower-latitude Eurasian continent, it gets cooled due to radiative heat loss. Anticyclones accordingly form or intensify.”

Before going on to say “We need to evaluate whether climate models can realistically capture weather-scale physical processes”, which, translated, means “Please send us some more grant money”.

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Firey

Hot summers confirm golbal warming and cold winters confirm global warming. Wet weather confirms global warming, dry weather confirms global warming, no warming confirms global warming, it is the ultimate non falsifiable hypothesis but that is not science.

NetDr

What they never mention is that CO2 spreads the heat like a blanket making storms milder.
We can’t publish that can we ?
CO2 causes milder storms.
First of all a storm is a heat engine and the amount of energy it uses to move air etc is proportional to the temperature DIFFERENCE between the input and the output not their absolute temperature .
Here is a simple explanation of the thermodynamics involved.
Notice that if the temperature out = the temperature in the heat engine STOPS !
CO2 makes the difference less so it slows down.
http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/heaeng.html
By spreading the heat more evenly CO2 tends to make storms milder.
Despite one extreme storm recently the TREND seems to b e FLAT without any more or less storms floods or droughts and here is the proof.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/climatic-phenomena-pages/extreme-weather-page/.

Gerald Machnee

So what was it that the Kennedy offspring said about children in Washington being deprived of snow?
Time to reprint in bold.

john

Ok, here is the challenge…
I dare anyone on Bill McKibben’s side to call me a ‘denier’, like OBL et.al. who are associated with the use of the term “infidel’s”… lots of horse shit out there and the gloves are now off.
Flashback: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/30/world/middleeast/30binladen.html?_r=0
Stay tuned for my next story at The Daily Bail…
john from DB

BBC’s John Hammond associated the recent cold spell with the SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) without any reference to the climate change, AGW or CO2.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSW2012-13.htm
Refreshing!

CAGW is the ultimate non falsifiable hypothesis. Whatever you are experiencing at the present that you do not like, that is caused by CAGW, and if you do not send money now and stop using energy it is all going to get so much worse for you as we know where you live!

pokerguy

“Hot summers confirm golbal warming and cold winters confirm global warming. Wet weather confirms global warming, dry weather confirms global warming, no warming confirms global warming, it is the ultimate non falsifiable hypothesis but that is not science”
Ah but wait for actual global cooling. That is the one thing they can’t blame on global warming. It’s the one thing which will at long last stick a fork in the greatest scientific hoax in history. Can’t come soon enough, but rest assured it will come.

Luther Wu

Not long ago, if you pointed to some record- breaking cold event, they would say “Weather isn’t climate!“. It looks like someone sent out a new memo- now, everything is climate and it’s all your fault.

Jimbo

Relax everyone. They are trying to inoculate themselves against falsification in the public’s eyes. You see, they know full well that when, for example, Europe suffers a deep freeze and cold weather deaths, they need to say does not contradict the AGW hypothesis. Yet for over a decade they have been lamenting the lack of snow cover, depth you name it.
Warmer winters, colder winters
Gulf stream slows down, Gulf stream speeds up
UK to get more drought, UK to get more rain, the Sahel too, more or less. You name it, it’s covered. Grrrrr!

pat

LOL

Robuk

Dr Myles Allen, and a few more!
In 2009, Dr Myles Allen, head of the Climate Dynamics group at Department of Physics, University of Oxford told the Daily Telegraph, during another spell of bad snow “Even though this is quite a cold winter by recent standards it is still perfectly consistent with predictions for global warming. If it wasn’t for global warming this cold snap would happen much more regularly. What is interesting is that we are now surprised by this kind of weather. I doubt we would have been in the 1950s because it was much more common.
———————————————————————————————————————–
The 1936 North American cold wave ranks among the most intense cold waves of the 1930s. The states of the Midwest United States were hit the hardest. February 1936 was one of the coldest months recorded in the Midwest. The states of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota saw their coldest month on record. What was so significant about this cold wave was that the 1930s had some of the mildest winters in the US history. In addition to one of the coldest winters in the 1930s, the cold wave was followed by one of the warmest summers on record, the 1936 North American heat wave.
As for climate disruption,
http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default.asp?lang=en&n=6a4a3ac5-1

Jimbo

I want to hear something from a Warmist right here on this thread once and for all. Is Europe and the Northern United states expected to get colder winters or warmer winters? I don’t care about snow, just warmer or colder? You can reply both if you like, but I want an answer. 😉
(I may be mistaken but I was led to believe that the sign of a good theory is it’s ability to make good predictions – not the theory of everything.) For example take Einstein and the light bending observation.

29 March 1999
Simulation of recent northern winter climate trends by greenhouse-gas forcing
Drew T. Shindell Ron L. Miller Gavin A. Schmidt & Lionel Pandolfo
Abstract
The temperature of air at the Earth’s surface has risen during the past century1, but the fraction of the warming that can be attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gases remains controversial. The strongest warming trends have been over Northern Hemisphere land masses during winter, and are closely related to changes in atmospheric circulation. These circulation changes are manifested by a gradual reduction in high-latitude sea-level pressure, and an increase in mid-latitude sea-level pressure associated with one phase of the Arctic Oscillation (a hemisphere-scale version of the North Atlantic Oscillation)2. Here we use several different climate-model versions to demonstrate that the observed sea-level-pressure trends, including their magnitude, can be simulated by realistic increases in greenhouse-gas concentrations. Thus, although the warming appears through a naturally occurring mode of atmospheric variability, it may be anthropogenically induced and may continue to rise.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v399/n6735/full/399452a0.html

and

5 NOV 2010
A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents
Vladimir Petoukhov et al.
Abstract
[1] The recent overall Northern Hemisphere warming was accompanied by several severe northern continental winters, as for example, extremely cold winter 2005–2006 in Europe and northern Asia. Here we show that anomalous decrease of wintertime sea ice concentration in the Barents-Kara (B-K) seas could bring about extreme cold events like winter 2005–2006. Our simulations with the ECHAM5 general circulation model demonstrate that lower-troposphere heating over the B-K seas in the Eastern Arctic caused by the sea ice reduction may result in strong anticyclonic anomaly over the Polar Ocean and anomalous easterly advection over northern continents. This causes a continental-scale winter cooling reaching −1.5°C, with more than 3 times increased probability of cold winter extremes over large areas including Europe. Our results imply that several recent severe winters do not conflict the global warming picture but rather supplement it, being in qualitative agreement with the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation realignment.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v399/n6735/full/399452a0.html

I may be mistaken but global warming was supposed to make itself felt mostly in winter in the higher latitude? No?

AndyG55

A perfectly average summer or winter is now CAUSED by CAGW and rabid CO2 !

Excellent post, Paul. In February 2007, the BBC World Service broadcast an episode of One Planet about the mild winters of the last decade, that looked back with nostalgia at the “proper winters” of 30 years ago, which the presenter, Richard Hollingham, said were “unlikely to return”.
Dr Rowan Sutton (researcher, Walker Institute): “There, of course, has been a significant warming, and that’s been seen over much of the northern hemisphere and indeed the southern hemisphere, although the northern hemisphere at present is significantly warmer. And it’s been particularly observed in winter time. And in Europe, for example, we have seen that the recent winters in the UK are well over a degree warmer than they were 30 or so years ago. And that’s associated with trends in snow and ice, for example…”
This audio is available on the Internet Archive site, and I also have a full transcript of it here:
https://sites.google.com/site/mytranscriptbox/home/20070203_op

Leo Smith

Jess keep that old climate of fear goin’ while we rake in them tax dollars, boys!

john in cheshire

Please don’t let up on attacking the bbc. It is the enemy and therefore must be destroyed. Don’t let it think it’s fooled you into thinking it has changed just because it says a few sensible things. It hasn’t.

cui bono

The weather blogs have been all over the SSW, hoping for a period when a winter storm could make it through the cold, dry air. They’re peculiarly overjoyed! At last something interesting and truly wintry is here. But perhaps exalted ‘climate scientists’ are above mere meteorology.
Does anyone know of any kind of weather that *isn’t* proof of global warming?
Anyone?

chris y

NetDr says-
“CO2 causes milder storms.”
Hansen agrees in 2012.
“…high latitude cooling would increase latitudinal temperature gradients, thus driving powerful cyclonic storms.”
James Hansen, blog paper, 12/26/2012
But wait-
Hansen disagrees in 2009 with his book Storms of my grandchildren describing increased storm intensity and frequency as CO2 warms the poles faster than the tropics.
This is another example of Hansen’s Horoscopy.

Roy

We are all guilty! The Greens tell us so. Therefore whatever happens is our fault. If it gets hotter, it is because of our sins – sorry I meant our CO2 emissions. If it gets colder it is because of our CO2 emissions. If it gets wetter/drier … whatever the effect the cause is the same.
Is there anything that CO2 cannot do?

I predict this winter and next will be colder, about the same or warmer.

Mindert Eiting

AGW is a perfectly falsifiable hypothesis because only a wrong hypothesis makes opposite predictions. We don’t have to wait for many years because the work is done.

I forgot the punchline to my previous comment (see above.) The BBC World Service programme One Planet in Feb 2007 also featured Dr. Brenda Ekwurzel of the Union of Concerned Scientists:
Richard Hollingham: Now those of us who grew up with very cold winters, who tell our children that winter’s not what it used to be, we’re right, aren’t we?
Brenda Ekwurzel: Yes, absolutely. It has changed.

The pattern is easily explained because the Rossby Waves in the Circumpolar Vortex have shifted from Zonal to Meridional.
http://drtimball.com/2012/current-global-weather-patterns-normal-despite-government-and-media-distortions/

jlurtz

Since AGW predicts both warming and cooling [as per above], how does one kill the snake????

Skeptik

They have to wheel out another “scientist” each time because the last “scientist is still in therapy.

tango

In australia the Malcom Roberts of the www. galileomovement.com.au is prepairing a report on the CSIRO global warming report should be very interesting reading http://www.conscious.com.au/CSIROh!.html

manicbeancounter

When dealing with highly complex phenomena, real science is distinguished by making predictions about the world that usually come right more often than not. Random events may sometimes seem to falsify the theory, but progressive science will get more predictions right than wrong. Over time, as the science improves, so will the predictive ability over a dumb predictive model. It is akin to a skilled punter on the horses. They will not win every time, but will on average win more money than they lose, despite the expected average winnings being less than the stake money. Pseudo-science can always explain away the anomalies, and makes itself invulnerable to being contradicted by making “predictions” with wide anomalies
As an example of making predictions that are highly unlikely be contradicted, (though this is from the “weather not climate dept“) the BBC now provides weather forecasts who to 9 days ahead. Try looking a week ahead for Cambridge, Manchester or Drumnadnadrochit and you will find the BBC (courtesy of the Met Office) forecasting temperature bands of around 10 Celsius or more.

David L

As a scientist, I’m seriously getting tired of this idiotic nonsense. Yes, I understand variability, both natural and unnatural (common cause and special cause). I understand and use model building and statistics every day in my job of projecting the degradation of pharmaceutical drugs years into the future to determine shelf life within safe limits of human consumption under intense scrutiny of government agencies around the world.
It’s obvious to me these weather/climate projectionists have no clue what they are doing. If my stability work on pharma products was anything close to being this bad I’d be fired. When I project that a drug will remain in safe limits years from now they actually check year after year for the life of the product. And if I’m wrong I’m done. My company is not paying me to be wrong
These climatologists make up nonsense as they go along and nothing they claim has to be verified nor actually come to fruition yet they continue to rake in the government grants. What a scam. If they operated in the private sector would anyone actually voluntarily pay for their nonsense? They only exist as leaches on government handouts.

herkimer

Paul
With respect to UK winters , the following web page of Met Office is helpfuL http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/actualmonthly/
Go to UK, MEAN TEMPERATURES and WINTER. options
You will get a plot of UK wineter temperatures since 1910. You will note that the winter temperature trend oscillates and has recently levelled off and is actually dropping after 2006 below the long term trend for three years after rising since about 1960.. What the Met Office is saying that the winter temperture trend will continue to rise . I beg to differ as I think we are heading to a similar period as 1962 -1987 and we will actually see cooler winters for the next 20 -30 years . This trend already started after 2006 .This is completely opposite of what Met Office is saying.

pat

when leo hickman & the guardian have to expose the following, it’s obvious CAGW is on its last legs:
8 Feb: Guardian: Leo Hickman: BBC exaggerated climate change in David Attenborough’s Africa
David Attenborough claims in BBC One’s Africa series that part of the continent has warmed by 3.5C over the past 20 years
Personally, I find it bizarre – and frustrating – that an otherwise exemplary series, which took years to film, has been tainted – in my mind, at least – by such a sloppy piece of research. Why rely primarily on a seven-year-old report published an NGO? Why not just directly ask climatologists who would have the latest available data to hand? And how did the BBC’s researchers even come across such an obscure fact? You get the sense they simply Googled “Africa temperature rise” and went for the first thing they found.
First Comment, by Ecodev: The article makes valid points, but surely the benefits of David Attenborough using the chance to communicate the reality and implications of human-induced climate change on BBC1 to a wide audience should be appreciated?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2013/feb/08/bbc-global-warming-attenborough-africa

Other_Andy

@Jimbo
You are asking them the wrong question.
Cui Bono got it right.
Ask them what the kind of weather disproves global warming.

Arno Arrak

An interesting melange of climate observations with no science whatsoever. Before you can talk of warming and cooling you have to know what warming and cooling actually happened. This applies specifically to the Chinese data which basically overlaps the satellite era of temperature measurements. An analysis of satellite data indicates that there was no warming during the eighteen years from 1979 to 1997. This was followed by the super El Nino of 1998 which brought so much warm water across the ocean that a step warming followed. In four years global temperature rose by a thgird of a degree Celsius and then stopped. This was the only warming during the entire 33 years of satellite observations. It is this warming that is responsible for the very warm first decade of this century, not some imaginary greenhouse warming. All the years since then sit on the warm platform created by that short, steep warming. Hansen likes to tell us about the nine warmest years during this period, implying that global warming caused them. There was no warming whatsoever during this period and their warmth is inherited from the step warming of 1998 to 2001, not created by greenhouse gases. There still is no warming today and if you follow the Met Office this no-warming period is now 16 years old. If you are a scientist you should recognize by now that your experiment has failed. The attempt to warm up the atmosphere by addition of carbon dioxide to it simply does not work. Now back to the Chinese. According to them, “We found a persistent weakening of both cyclones and anticyclones between the 1990s and early 2000s, and a pronounced intensification of anticyclone activity afterwards.” This tells us that conditions changed between the 1900s and 2000s, and small wonder – the step warming that was in between is the obvious cause, and now we know that global temperature change can influence cyclone and anticyclone activity. No mystery, and certainly no greenhouse baloney involved. As to why that greenhouse fantasy does not work, Ferenc Miskolczi has the answer. Using NOAA weather balloon database that goes back to 1948 he determined that atmospheric absorption of long-wave radiation has been constant for 61 years while carbon dioxide at the same time increased by 21.6 percent. This means that the addition of this substantial amount of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere had no effect whatsoever on the absorption of long-wave radiation by the atmosphere. And without absorption of radiant energy greenhouse warming simply does not work. It is that simple: greenhouse warming is impossible. If you have been inculcated into believing that Arrhenius proved otherwise, he only proved that carbon dioxide absorbs infrared radiation. That it does but thanks to water vapor in the atmosphere this effect is blocked. That is because the water vapor feedback is negative, not positive as IPCC has been telling us. We already knew from the absence of the hot spot that water vapor feedback cannot be positive. Miskolczi theory requires that it must be negative and his observations using NOAA database prove it.

David L

Sixteen years of flat global temperature average and cold snowy winters around the globe and wet summers do not disprove global warming. What pray tell WILL disprove this bogus theory? But that really is the problem, isn’t it? A theory is not to be disproved. A theory is to be proven with data matching prediction.

oldfossil

According to Dr Myles Allen:

If it wasn’t for global warming this cold snap would happen much more regularly.

He’s saying that cold snaps and killer low temperatures are a good thing?

Bruce Cobb

The Warman Empire has a thousand weather roads, all leading to its hallowed doors.

RERT

Aaaagggggghhhhh!
If it’s hot, it’s CO2; if it’s cold, it’s CO2; if it’s wet, it’s CO2; if it’s dry, it’s CO2; if it’s windy, it’s CO2…..with no statistical evidence!
If my 10 year old son believed these arguments, I’d give him a lecture on intellectual rigour. Any grown up who swallows this should wake up and be deeply, deeply ashamed of themselves.
The clear truth that global warming has stopped for 15 years has left the environmentalists grasping at non-falsifiable straws. If you ever hear anyone articulate this story, point out that they wouldn’t believe a second hand car salesman who pushed an argument this risible, so why do so when a few trillion dollars of economic impact is at stake?
I hear people on this blog opine that the pause in warming is no big deal. Quite the contrary: take the 11 year centred moving average monthly temperature. It rose with little pause from 1971 to 2002, and has hardly budged since.
Pah! Happy friday night…

Eric Barnes

Jimbo says:
February 8, 2013 at 2:03 pm
I want to hear something from a Warmist right here on this thread once and for all. Is Europe and the Northern United states expected to get colder winters or warmer winters?
Yes.

Kev-in-Uk

It’s quite simple really: take the following words and rearrange to make a phrase that explains the alarmists actions:
their; know; don’t; ar$es; their; elbows; from; they

Scott Flick

What I always wanted to know and maybe someone can answer what causes a storm to be a climate change storm and not a natural storm, other than my puter told me it was? That and as blizzards have been happening for longer than CO2 driven warming how much more intense is this storm due to climate change? None of my warming friends can answer so just wondering.

Gary Pearse

Time to plug in my model again: the one that says look at the weather 60 years ago to see what is in store for us now. CO2 has turned climatologists away from this this simple model, which has a heck of a lot more skill than anything being used or contemplated these days. Cold weather in UK today, look at 60 years ago. Heavy snow in New England – I could have forecast it 60 years ago. Big drought in Texas, gee, pretty much what was happening 60 years ago. Cold springs and summers in the Pacific NW, hmm, check out the conditions 60 years ago….
Whenever we get some heat wave/drought/flood/heavy snow/wildfires… the news folks and weather folks always say…”The worst in 60 years”. I think this would make a good post by someone familiar with weather history.

Athelstan.

If the UEA CRU phoned me up at 02.00 in the morning and told me it was dark outside – I’d still open the curtains to check.
And until, NCAR, Met Office and particularly super-computer-Slingo, Sereeze at NSIDC, NOAA et al, start convincing me that they are absolutely sure which way is up – I will never believe a word of what they spiel.

Adapting an OLD quote from Economics is appropo:
If you took 100 Climatologists and laid them end-to-end, they would still point in all directions.

David L says:
February 8, 2013 at 3:12 pm
They only exist as leaches on government handouts.
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What is the difference between a leech and a climate scientist?
One is a blood sucking parasite and the other is a worm.

Jim Ryan

Dogma =df “A belief for which there is nothing that its believer would count as evidence that the it was false.”

Pamela Gray

This scientific discipline reminds me of a card game my kids used to play. They made up the rules as they played the game, occasionally dissolving the charming “family painting” into an all out feathers flying brawl. But mostly it was just plain fun, coming up with new card playing rules in-between each player’s turn. If I intervened to distract an impending argument I was told I didn’t know how to play the game. These learned and lettered scientists are like my three children playing their made-up-as-you-go card game. Which also means they need to have their credentials as adults removed for a spell and made to sit in the corner with a dunce cap firmly planted on their tiny little heads.

[snip – pointless comment, off topic -mod]

Bill H

Tim Ball says:
February 8, 2013 at 3:01 pm
The pattern is easily explained because the Rossby Waves in the Circumpolar Vortex have shifted from Zonal to Meridional.
http://drtimball.com/2012/current-global-weather-patterns-normal-despite-government-and-media-distortions/
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Energy balance…. You will always know if you are warming or cooling by the size of the polar vortex and Rossby wave locations.. My mother once told me to “Keep It Simple Stupid”. it is still good advice today..

Dr. Lurtz says:
February 8, 2013 at 3:05 pm
Since AGW predicts both warming and cooling [as per above], how does one kill the snake????
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By going with your instincts when you read or hear something as ludicrously stupid as climate change causing warmcold. Derisive comedy and pointing and laughing is the order of the day for these events, as well as the wetdry prognostications to go along with the moreless snow pronouncements. 🙂

This storm is exactly analagous to Sandy and relects the same causes.For a complete discussion see
http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2012/10/hurricane-sandy-extreme-events-and_30.html

Crispin in Waterloo

@Arno
CO2 does indeed absorb IR and I rely on that to detect it in gas streams. The 61 years of constancy are well proven and falsify a number of claims upon which models are based. If we had no water on this planet then the situation would be quite different. But it is not the case.