Michael Tobis has bupkis

UPDATES have been added:  see below. Not only does Tobis have bupkis, he’s been caught out in a Janus moment from 2010 where he says the exact opposite. – Anthony

I wrote a post yesterday pointing out how a WWF zealot immediately linked a heavy snowfall event in Moscow, Russia to ‘global warming’. Marc Morano of Climate Depot pointed out this hilarity at the secular Tobis Planet 3.0 blog in an email: Warmist Tobis says heavy snow is agw: calls anyone who mocks ‘clueless’ Logic Fail Logic Fail

Here’s what Tobis thinks:

It is interesting that most deniers seem to live in warm climates.

They cannot conceive of the possibility that unusually heavy winter snow is connected with less than usual winter cold in cold zones, something that pretty much all of us who grew up in frigid zones understand perfectly well. They are so confused that they find this perfectly ordinary fact of mundane reality grounds for mockery.

It’s quite a spectacle.

(Igloos in DC are another matter. A rare snow event in a non-snowy zone is not evidence of a warming trend. Of course, there’s more to climate disruption than just warming, but at least they are making some semblance of sense in that case, at least polemically, as the relationship is a bit complicated.)

But to mock a connection between heavy snow in February in Moscow and global warming is pretty much clueless.

michael_tobis-medium[1]

Michael Tobis

Heh. Typical Tobis, as Willis would say he’s “all hat and no cattle“. I’ll get to that in a moment. At least this time he didn’t go off in an F-word fusillade which has made him famous for the record number of F-words in a single posting. I’m not able to comment there at his blog, as some comments I’ve posted in the past have never seen the light of day. But, I have to laugh at the juxtaposition of Dana Nuccitelli’s comment with the Tobis comment policy statement right below it. p3_commentsSo, let’s look at some data.The popular warmist theory is that reduced summer sea ice causes the enhanced snow effect, and that sea ice reduction is caused by global warming, but it isn’t cut and dried proof. Then there is the months-long lag problem between reduced sea ice and weather.Dr. Judith Curry has discussed the science in her paper from Georgia Tech here: http://judithcurry.com/2012/03/05/impact-of-declining-arctic-sea-ice-on-winter-snowfall/ (h/t to Mosher)Joe D’Aleo also posted a critique to the Liu and Curry paper on WUWT here:http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/02/increasing-winter-cold-in-recent-years-and-the-arctic/From a previous WUWT essay by Willis Eschenbach, who points out that neither essay compared sea ice and snow area, I repost this graph. Readers (and Tobis too) should find the correlation between Arctic sea ice and Snow area.

Figure 2. Arctic sea ice area (blue) and Northern Hemisphere snow area (red).  Upper panel shows actual data. Lower panel shows the anomalies of the same data, with the same units (note different scales). The R^2 of the snow and ice anomalies is 0.01, meaninglessly small. The R^2 of the first differences of the anomalies is 0.004, equally insignificant. Neither of these are significantly improved by lags of up to ± 6 months. SNOW DATA ICE DATA

Willis wrote then:

I’m not going to say a whole lot about this graph. It is clear that in general the arctic ice area has been decreasing for twenty years or so. It is equally clear that the northern hemisphere snowfall has not been increasing for the last twenty years. Finally, it is clear that there is no statistical relationship between decreased ice and increased snow.

Speaking of statistical relationships, here’s a couple.

The graph below plots annual snowfall vs December to April temperature, for all Colorado USHCN stations which have been continuously active since at least 1920.

USHCN_Colorado_snow_vs_temp

The Colorado USHCN Stations plotted are:

BOULDER, CANON CITY, CHEESMAN, CHEYENNE WELLS, DEL NORTE 2E, DILLON 1 E, EADS, FT COLLINS, FT MORGAN, FRUITA, GUNNISON 3SW, HERMIT 7 ESE, LAMAR, LAS ANIMAS, MANASSA, MONTROSE #2, ROCKY FORD 2 SE. STEAMBOAT SPRINGS, TRINIDAD, and WRAY

And for those that would say that is too small a sample size, let’s take it up a notch. Below is all USHCN station temperatures for December-April in the CONUS versus snowfall.

USHCN_Snowfall_VS_Dec-Apr

Here is all USHCN stations annual temperature in the CONUS versus snowfall.

USHCN_Temp_vs-Snowfall

Clearly snowfall increases with decreased temperature. The three graphs above were plotted by Steve Goddard.

But back to Tobis’ main point, in which is he’s claiming (bold mine):

They cannot conceive of the possibility that unusually heavy winter snow is connected with less than usual winter cold in cold zones, something that pretty much all of us who grew up in frigid zones understand perfectly well. They are so confused that they find this perfectly ordinary fact of mundane reality grounds for mockery.

Well, there’s data for that question too.

tn27612_1yr[1]

Note the middle graph in particular, showing below normal temperatures to the present. All temperatures in Celsius.

Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn27612_1yr.gif  h/t to WUWT reader “J”.

It really is rather hard to make a claim that “global warming did it” when data says otherwise.

So other than an angry rant basically saying “global warming caused it cuz we say it does”, what has Tobis got in the way of a factual argument? Where is his supporting data? And he didn’t answer the question: “If global warming caused this snowfall event, what caused the heavy snow 100 years ago when CO2 levels were below Hansen’s “safe” 350ppm?”

His two commenters didn’t answer the question either. They also offered no supporting data.

They and Tobis (and the WWF zealot with the original comment) have bupkis.

For the record I grew up in the midwest, and faced the great blizzard of 1978 with its exceptionally cold temperatures and huge snowfalls, plus the Chicago Blizzard of 1979 (to name a couple I experienced firsthand). Tobis and friends seem to think that living in Northern California now somehow disqualifies me from understanding snow and temperature. That’s probably the lamest argument ever put forth by that guy. Imagine if I made the same argument because Tobis lives in Austin, TX. where “snowfall is rare“.

Should you care to visit Tobis’ blog, here’s the link: http://planet3.org/2013/02/05/logic-fail-logic-fail/

Good luck trying to get a factual word in.

Sidebar: The WWF zealot (Kokorin) who made the claim about AGW and snow in the original newspaper article has an interesting view of the world. See this comment from WUWT Larry Huldén

Larry Huldén says:

February 5, 2013 at 11:21 pm

Alexei Kokorin, director of the climate and energy program at WWF Russia, is the same person who claimed that malaria never occurred in Russia before late 20th century warming. He claimed that malaria for the first time entered Russia because of global warming in 1990′s.

That checks out, see this NPR story: Russian Scientists Fear Warming May Bring Disease

Mr. KOKORIN: (Through translator) There were no registered cases of malaria in the Moscow region until the 1970s. Since then, we’ve seen 400,000 cases of so-called three-day malaria. That’s like a bad flu for healthy adults but can be very serious for children and the elderly. It’s far too many cases.

Three day Malaria? Must be the Vodka.

But the truth about the cause says otherwise, from the World Health Organization report on Malaria in Russia (which they almost eradicated in the 1960s) here.

Profound socioeconomic changes in the newly independent states (NIS) in the 1990s had a negative impact on the malaria situation in the Russian Federation. Epidemics in Azerbaijan and Tajikistan in the early 1990s, along with intensive population movement from these countries into the Russian Federation, brought about an increase in malaria cases.

Not one mention of warming or temperature in that article, only socioeconomic causes.

Looks like the WWF zealot has bupkis too.

UPDATE: Within a few minutes of publication Mr. Tobis posted a rebuttal comment here (because unlike his blog, it is easy to post a comment here immediately) that said:

You’re missing the point. Obfuscation aside, the point is that excessive February snow in Moscow means that February in Moscow is more likely to be anomalously warn than anomalously cold. Which you ought to know.

Here is my reply:

Tobis writes:  “February in Moscow is more likely to be anomalously warn[sic] than anomalously cold.”

But it isn’t, the data I presented from the Moscow Observatory shows a below normal temperature in January into February. And, this is a single event we are talking about in the newspaper article, not a trend, not a long term climate issue.For more on snow and temperature see this: http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/%28Gh%29/guides/mtr/fcst/prcp/rs.rxml

The claim about this snow event being driving by AGW is the same logical fallacy you and your buddies embraced with the Moscow heat wave in 2010, which was a weather event, not a climate event. And, that’s not just my opinion, NOAA shares it too.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/09/noaa-findsclimate-change-blameless-in-2010-russian-heat-wave/

Further to your claim, let’s look at long term snow trends for that part of the world. Rutgers Snow Lab offers some helpful plots. First all months of data back to the beginning of their record:

Snowcover_anom_eurasia

Source: http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=0&ui_region=eurasia&ui_month=12

Now, the month of February.

eurasia_feb_snow_anomaly

Source: http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=eurasia&ui_month=2

If global warming was creating more snow in that area, wouldn’t there be an upwards trend?

Ya still got bupkis Mike. – Anthony

UPDATE2: I recalled on the drive into the office today that Tobis made this claim in 2010 related to lack of snow at the winter Olympics:

“But there’s another lesson here, too. Don’t overreach. Is there anything in any particular weather event (except prehaps [sic] ones far more bizarre than this one) that offers strong evidence for or against any theory of climate change?

But big snowstorms in the mid-Atlantic or the South, particularly in El Nino years, are not evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change either. They are not the sort of thing we particularly expect more of because of human interference. At best it seems to me that the case is uncertain.”

http://init.planet3.org/2010/02/hill-of-snow.html

Besides having bupkis, Mike Tobis can’t make up his mind about snow and AGW, like the weather itself, he’s fickle. – Anthony

UPDATE3: My response to Mr. Tobis in comments:

Anthony Watts says:

@mtobis.

You really shouldn’t try to cover up errors with more errors and some added lies.

Maybe you think you are being unclear, but your choice of words reveals that you are just being a sanctimonious fool and using the issue as an excuse to slog off on skeptics in general. Your comments about “deniers” and where they live and warm climate etc, have no basis in reality, and your insistence of “all I said was” doesn’t jibe with your original printed claims.

There’s no connection that you’ve demonstrated between the snow in Moscow and global warming, and you’ve offered nothing but sputtering rhetoric and condescension instead of substance to back up your ridiculous claims. This was a weather event, formed in the clash of air masses, cold and dry -vs- moist and warm, just as snow has formed since weather on Earth began. It is a simple case of patterns, much like the Russian heat wave during the summer of 2010.

Here in the image below, we have a meridional S-N flow pattern, pulling in warm air and moisture ahead of a low, which has been fairly persistent throughout the winter. Moscow has received several similar episodes of overrunning precipitation, with Moscow wedged between strong high pressure to its east and low pressure to its west. Its a persistent pattern driven funnel effect, nothing more.

If there was zonal flow instead, no big snow events would be happening in Moscow. As it stands, warmer moister air must be drawn northward to produce that sort of snow event.

This image from WeatherBell.com is a GFS model forecast, and it shows more snow to likely hit Moscow Friday as warmth/moisture from low pressure driven advection is drawn northward. Rinse, repeat, and you have a snow machine.

It was not a climate event, because as I demonstrated, there is no evidence of a longer trend for more snow in the area. There is also no evidence that the pump was “primed” for more snow by global warming.

The only reason this is an issue now is that you and others are losing the climate sensitivity argument due to lack of observed warming, and you and others are looking for linkages where there are none to be had. If you have something of substance (data, graphs, etc) to prove your point, you are welcome to post them here.

Otherwise your comments are just opinionated noise from somebody who doesn’t get the difference between weather events and climate, except when it suits you.

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John Phillips

Snow is a significant factor in colder temperatures, both in the day when it reflects more sunlight than the ground, and also at night, because snow is a better radiator than the ground. It gets significantly colder at night with snow cover than surrounding areas with no snow cover. Heavy snow makes for a colder winter. At least that’s our experience here in ND.

Colin Gartner

That’s why I love this blog. I’m a layman, so much of the more technical stuff goes over my head, but I really do appreciate the data presented here to buttress the claims made. It certainly is a breath of fresh air when compared to the claims made by the other side, many of which are based purely on emotion or faith, with no data to corroborate. Keep up the great work.

They made a prediction and because their prediction failed they are now curve fitting every natural weather event and calling it dangerous anthropogenic climate change, Where have I seen this happen before?

Gene Selkov

Anthony, this is tough. I admit it takes strenuous effort to read and understand the information you post here. The assimilation of any information requires energy. I believe if you’re told something and it instantly feels good, it is not information. A confirmation, maybe.
Talking at this level to the crowd that is used to be fed instantly palatable factoids is a waste of time. They will always dismiss everything you say as nonsense because they can’t be bothered to make an effort to understand it. They don’t need to. They are happy the way they are, and you can only make them happier by confirming their beliefs.
It is only for us who seek knowledge that it makes sense.

Bill

Anthony,
Tobis was talking about virtual weather and temperatures. In his head, there is a clear correlation and he is able to pick real weather events and use them as examples that prove his virtual weather theories. How dare you show actual data. Are you denying the virtual weather world?
REPLY: Damn, busted. Yes, I’m a virtual weather denier 😉 – Anthony

Taphonomic

The Chicago Blizzard of 1979. That helped defeat Michael Bilandic in his run to continue being mayor of Chicago. Almost all transportation in the city was shut down and a reporter ask ask Bilandic why the city workers weren’t getting the the streets cleared quicker. Bilandic responded that he didn’t know what the reporter was talking about as he did not have any problem getting his car out of his garage and driving to work. The voters realized that Bilandic had had his alleyway and path to work plowed while all the major streets and bus routes were still buried in snow. Results: Jane Byrne wins Democratic primary and mayoral election.

Wamron

If Envirinmentalists had not obtained a virtual ban on DDT there would be no Malaria.

Doug

You cheated. You used facts and data.
Nice post!

You’re missing the point. Obfuscation aside, the point is that excessive February snow in Moscow means that February in Moscow is more likely to be anomalously warn than anomalously cold. Which you ought to know.
REPLY: “February in Moscow is more likely to be anomalously warn[sic] than anomalously cold.”
But it isn’t, the data I presented shows a below normal temperature leading into February. And, this is a single event we are talking about in the newspaper article, not a trend, not a long term climate issue. Its the same logical fallacy you and your buddies embraced with the Moscow heat wave in 2010, which was a weather event, not a climate event. And, that’s not just my opinion, NOAA shares it too.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/09/noaa-findsclimate-change-blameless-in-2010-russian-heat-wave/
Ya still got bupkis Mike. – Anthony
P.S. See my update in the head post to Mr. Tobis comment, and note the snow graphs from Rutgers. – Anthony

Wamron

“Environmentalists”.Tut!

toto

You’re still not getting it.
MT and the IPCC say that in climates that already have thoroughly cold winters, global warming will cause more snow (because it causes more precipitation, and in cold climates, precipitation = snow).
This was in direct reply to the posts and commenters who were saying “OMG more snow = AGW is wrongz!” (I’m slightly paraphrasing). No it’s not.
You reply by showing that colder places have more snow than warmer places (Duh!)
Can you see the disconnect between the two?
By the way, increased winter precipitations (AKA *snow*) in Asia is one of the predictions of IPCC AR4:
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch11s11-4-3-2.html
REPLY: See my update in the head post to Mr. Tobis comment, and note the snow graphs from Rutgers. – Anthony

Could it possibly be that the breakdown of internal passport controls in the Soviet Union under Brezhnev and their removal under the Russian Federation has led more people to show up in Moscow with malaria? Nah, couldn’t be.

Mike H

Anthony. You need a “chuckle count button” for comments. The exchange between you and Bill got me my first little chuckle of the day. I enjoy getting my first smile in relatively early. Thanks
Cheers

kim

Be easy on Michael, his life’s got to get weird when fat tails flop.
=============

knr

‘It is interesting that most deniers seem to live in warm climates’
his proof for this is no doubt ‘has good’ has his proof for his original claim .

rgbatduke

He must have missed out on the Siberian malaria epidemic that took place in the 1920s and 1930s, or the many malaria deaths that occurred during the digging of the Erie canal. Malaria is primarily a tropical disease — roughly half a billion cases a year occur, killing 1-2 million people, with 90% of the cases in sub-Saharan Africa. 20% of all childhood deaths occur due to malaria, which works out to a child dying every 30 seconds from the disease. But “local temperature” isn’t any sort of barrier to malaria per se — it is perfectly happy being transmitted by mosquitoes all the way up to the Arctic circle — it is rather a question of the range and prevalence of the right kinds of mosquitoes and most important of all, prevalence of plasmodium in the human population!
There are no animal reservoirs for Plasmodium malariae!
This latter is the crucial point. Once one eradicates malaria in a human population, it remains eradicated until infected humans move in and are bitten by the right kinds of mosquitoes. The range of Anopheles mosquitoes is plenty wide enough to transmit the disease anywhere, but the advent of electricity, modern medicine and transportation, screened windows, insect repellents, closed automobiles all have greatly reduced human-mosquito contact. I get bitten by fewer mosquitoes in a typical year than a person living in an open hut in subtropical Africa would be bitten by in a single day.
Climate change is not a factor in the mixing of human populations that re-introduces the plasmodium vector into geographical areas that had all but eradicated it, but the availability of energy absolutely is. Cheap electricity and prosperity are the worst enemy of malaria — air conditioned houses and cars keep mosquitoes outside of closed windows, water management and drainage eliminate mosquito breeding areas, cheap manufacturing of screens and good clothing and the availability of repellents all reduce the requisite interaction needed to maintain the transmission chain and the prevalence of the disease in any given community. Insecticides produced with electricity can directly affect mosquito populations (sometimes with negative or unexpected side effects on other animal or insect populations).
I’m guessing that nearly all of the “surplus” deaths attributed to AGW are bogus numbers associated with a presumed but unverified expansion of malarial deaths — looking at the supposed boundaries of “subtropical” regions and how they are “supposed” to have changed, and then doing a multiplication of the new area by the old rates of death. I very much doubt that there is any sort of reliable counting going on.
However, the good thing about malaria is that it is a disease, like smallpox, that we could completely eliminate in as little as one year if we came up with an effective vaccine and administered to everybody, and then aggressively treated every single case as it arose. With no animal reservoirs, malaria is vulnerable to complete eradication. All we have to do is eliminate or strongly reduce the disease in its one host reservoir — humans — and keep the pressure on until the last plasmodium-infected human has been cleared of the disease.
We could probably do this without the vaccine if we put one tenth of the money we’ve wasted on carbon trading and ameliorating AGW into the aggressive treatment of the disease and the aggressive economic development of the impoverished peoples of the parts of the world where the disease thrives, not because it can’t live anywhere, but because without air conditioning and screens and repellants and cars and insecticides and modern medical clinics and water control and all of the other aspects of civilization that we take for granted and that are the real reason I don’t worry about getting malaria while I’m out fishing in NC, the people live in constant contact with both the mosquitoes and with other infected people who have the disease. We cannot reasonably eliminate the mosquitoes, but we could greatly reduced their habitat. We can, and probably will over the next two decades, first reduce the number of people who have the disease at all, and then eradicate the disease.
rgb

Dr. John M. Ware

We lived in Terre Haute, Indiana, during the 1978 and 1979 blizzards. Even halfway downstate, those were serious storms. Back in 1977, Mayor Larrison sold off the snow removal equipment because it had not been used for several mild winters. During the 1978 storm the order went out from the Indiana State Police to stay off the roads. Even so, they and other emergency folk had to rescue dozens of people from I-74 and other big roads. Terre Haute was at a standstill. A young and silly person of 36 at the time, I tried to drive to school (Indiana State University) in my 1968 VW Squareback, a marvelous and fuel efficient car, but got caught in a monster snowdrift and managed to blow the engine. I had to leave the car where it was (it had good company) and walk home. About that time Mayor Larrison appeared on the TV noon news, and reporters were haranguing him about the sold-off snowplows. They asked him what he planned to do about the snow-clogged streets. The mayor drew up to his full height and intoned, “In His infinite wisdom, God has sent the snow. In His own good time, He will take it away.” The voters took the mayoralty away from Mr. Larrison in the next election.

chris y

I think Michael Tobis said it best about recent snowy insights made by Michael Tobis-
“”I think [Michael Tobis] should [snip . . “be quiet” . . mod], or at least stick to such matters, if any, where [he] has reason for confidence in what [he] says.”
Michael Tobis, November, 2011
Maybe M Tobis has decided to follow the brilliant pioneering work of David Appell and try to lure visitors over to his blog by posting clever, insightful comments at ‘evil, oil-funded denier’ websites.
It has durably certain results. Ask David Appell.

pat

Of course we all remember that the warmists predicted exactly the opposite, a vastly diminished snow cover. Then there is the fact that this cold front extends all the way to Britain which hardly makes it regional.
And then there is his certain knowledge of where skeptics live.
This is not a serious person.

Reblogged this on Sparks.

Fred from Canuckistan

“But to mock a connection between heavy snow in February in Moscow and global warming is pretty much clueless.”
Mr. Tobis appears to be an expert in “clueless”.

Here’s daily February temperatures for Moscow so far from the NCEP http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn27612_30.gif

Gene Selkov

motobis says:
> Obfuscation aside,
I take it, obfuscation is precisely what I observed in my previous comment: potential information. It is new; it is complex; you don’t know where to place it; some of it may be irrelevant; some related in ways you don’t recognise. It may all be obfuscation, by the looks of it. By the same token, everything written everywhere may be obfuscation. Avoid reading, then.
> … the point is that excessive February snow in Moscow means that February in Moscow is more likely to be anomalously warn than anomalously cold.
It means no such thing. It only means that snowfall being an exothermic transition, it causes a momentary warming while it happens. Then you find yourself in deep-frozen snow or warm snow depending on subsequent weather.

Espen

Well, according to Ryan Maue’s map over at weather bell, Moscow has indeed been warmer than normal in the first 4 days of February: http://models.weatherbell.com/temperature.php – but it has been way colder than normal in the first 35 days of 2013. So now we know that Tobis thinks 4 days is climate, but 5 weeks is weather ;-p

davidmhoffer

mtobis (@mtobis) says:
February 6, 2013 at 8:19 am
You’re missing the point. Obfuscation aside, the point is that excessive February snow in Moscow means that February in Moscow is more likely to be anomalously warn than anomalously cold. Which you ought to know.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Mike,
I’d be interested to know why you think this should be the case. As Anthony pointed out, the data shows otherwise, but let’s put that aside for a moment. Why should heavy snowfall result in warmer temps? The physics would suggest otherwise.
All that LW that would normally be emitted from ground surface to be in part absorbed by ghg’s and re-radiated back to earth is in fact blocked by heavy snowfall. Snow is an excellent insulator. I grew up in a part of the world where we used to make jokes about the wimps in Chicago and their 79 blizzard because we got blizzards like that a dozen times a year. So you can’t suggest that I don’t know snow.
We used to shovel snow up against the sides of buildings because it cut heating fuel consumption by 1/2 or more. In years where there was little snow cover, temps would be warmer than usual because the earth itself was radiating heat that came back via ghe. When teaching kids about winter camping we used to take them out in a fresh snowfall and show them how the snow on top was loose, but at the very bottom was a thin sheet of ice with a layer of air (yes air!) underneath it. It formed when the snow first fell, melting and refreezing when it struck the earth, then more snow on top, trapping the warmth below.
In spring, we would see the opposite. Counter intuitive though it may seem, years with plenty of snow cover tended to exhibit early springs. As the snow itself was warmer in the bottom layers than it would have been otherwise due to trapping the earth’s warmth below, it would melt more readily and faster in spring. It was the years with little snow cover that featured late springs. Air temps would often be higher over the course of the year because of LW from the earth and ghe, but in spring we paid for it big time. So much heat left the earth that the earth itself was very cold, frost lines would be 2 feet deeper than normal. Come spring, all the warmth of the sun had to go into raising the temperature of the dirt itself before it stopped sucking the heat out of the atmosphere and delaying spring by weeks.
So those are my observations about snow cover from living in a climate not unlike Moscow’s (but colder) for a few decades. Those are my observations of the physics that lead me to believe the opposite of what you suggest.
If you could explain the observations and physics that suggest otherwise, I’d be interested.

John Endicott

mtobis (@mtobis) says:
February 6, 2013 at 8:19 am
You’re missing the point. Obfuscation aside, the point is that excessive February snow in Moscow means that February in Moscow is more likely to be anomalously warn than anomalously cold.
===================================
According to the data, it’s been anomalously cold (in Moscow) from Dec. up to the present. When is this anomalously warm weather expect to arrive?

Colin

Is there no end of silliness of those legions of warmists and their followers? At least I can take heart in knowing that I question things. A “Virtual Weather Denier”? I think I will print that off and post it at my work cubicle so I know EXACTLY what I am “denying”. Virtual Weather. Wow. Thanks Anthony for the work here – a chack daily to see what contortions the AGW fanatics have woven themselves into. Snowfall in Moscow – who heard of such a thing? That would be like hearing of sunshine in Hawaii???

Temperature during the snow event was 8 C above normal. Thus there is no intrinsic “logic fail” in considering it a warming-related event as you originally implied. That neither proves nor disproves the case. As you point out, no single weather event can, though some persistent patterns (Hoerling’s mistaken NOAA analysis notwithstanding) can offer strong evidence. I’ve argued that before and I will argue happily argue it again.
But all your backpedaling and obfuscation aside, this snow event is associated with a large warm anomaly. Wherever it fits in to the balance of evidence, it is a significant warm event, not a cold event at all, and that’s why your mockery of it is woefully misplaced.
REPLY: I’m sorry Mike, but a weather event has noting to do with climate and AGW, look at the long term snow graphs from Rutgers. Besides, previous AGW claims were that it would REDUCE snow. You guys are just grasping at whatever is convenient for the moment like you do with storms, heatwaves, rainfall events, and anything else that makes news.
I point out with data that colder weather yields increased snowfall, you say that a single warm event increased snowfall. It isn’t that simple. Snowfall just doesn’t happen due to anomalously warm conditions, it happens when a winter cold front meets warm moist air. That’s called weather. You should know this. I have to head out to work, but maybe one of our readers can pull up a synoptic map for the event. – Anthony

I am a Skeptic. I live in New Hampshire. Apparently Tobis has determined New Hampshire “seems to be” a warm climate. Hmm. Only if I was drinking what he’s been drinking, perhaps?
How about those fellows who wrote the humerous song, “Hide the Decline.” Were they from Minnesota, or Florida?
And how Tobis can make comments without at least checking to see if it has been warm or cold in Russia this winter is beyond me. (Hint: Its been COLD, COLD; COLD.)

k scott denison

M Tobias states: “It is interesting that most deniers seem to live in warm climates.”
========================
From a “denier” in Wisconsin, which I’m pretty sure isn’t a “warm climate”, please send us some global warming, quickly!

Robert M

motobis,
I live in Alaska. I believe that CAGW is a fraud, and that you and yours are either useful idiots, our outright fraudsters.
I do have a question for you. I will be moving to a much more tropical area this summer. Since, according to your “scientific” analysis, folks like me tend to live in warm climates, what happens when a CAGW infidel moves from a cold climate to a hot climate?
Oh, and as long as I’m here, could you answer one more question for me? Are you a fraud or just an idiot? I’m taking a survey. Hmmm, going to have to include both in the possible answer set…

John West

rgbatduke says:
”With no animal reservoirs, malaria is vulnerable to complete eradication.”
Oh no! Put it on the endangered species list! Forcibly inject people if necessary, we can’t lose even one thread of biodiversity!
(Do I really need to? … /sarc … Yes, because people that inane really do show up here sometimes.)
Kinda strange that these people are always harping about how there’s too many people and then turn around and cry wolf about malaria expansion, you’d think they’d be all for malaria expansion.

k scott denison

M. Tobias says: “Temperature during the snow event was 8 C above normal. Thus there is no intrinsic “logic fail” in considering it a warming-related event as you originally implied.”
Anthony says: “Snowfall just doesn’t happen due to anomalously warm conditions, it happens when a winter cold front meets warm moist air.”
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Used to live in the Front Range in Colorado. If we are to believe Mr. Tobias, we experienced a “warming-related event” our first year there in the month of September.
Saturday: 93F (+17F above norm)
Sunday: 90F (+14F above norm)
Monday: 30F with 5 inches of snow
Tuesday : 75F (right at norm)
See, those warm anomalies on the weekend caused that snow on Monday!! If only it had been closer to the normal of 75F there would have been no snow. Amazing stuff!!!
See Anthony, how wrong you are!!!!
/sarc

Jim Ryan

Warmist climate scientists are unable to account for these climate disruptions (snow, drought, flood, hurricane) by appeal only to natural causes. And the disruptions have turned out to be much more unpredictable by their models than previously thought. More funding is required so that they can gain a better understanding of the devastating link between manmade CO2 and these terrible climate disruptions. A lot more funding. If you doubt this, then you should consider this argument: “These scientists are unable to account for climate disruptions by appealing only to natural causes. Therefore, the disruptions are attributable to manmade CO2 (and these scientists deserve more funding for research into the link between the two.)” It is an airtight argument. Or “Their models have turned out to be all wrong. Therefore, they need a lot more funding.” which is also airtight. It’s good to give more money to scientists who have been unable to account for or predict events. If you’ve already given them a lot of money, their failure is evidence that the amount wasn’t enough.

Well, this is a first. I actually think (and have commented at P3) that I think Tobis may be correct and you may be wrong. Growing up in Decatur Illinois we often heard the phrase ‘too cold to snow.’ Usually with an expletive involved.
Makes for an interesting conversation.

k scott denison

M Tobis says: “Temperature during the snow event was 8 C above normal. Thus there is no intrinsic “logic fail” in considering it a warming-related event as you originally implied.”
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So let me see if I have this correct. The average temperature anomaly in Moscow from Jan 1 to today is -1.33C. However, temperature during the snow event was 8C above normal, therefore the snow event was caused by AGW. Huh. Guess I don’t understand this new “science”. Sounds a lot like religious dogma, no?

Tobis is so clueless it’s hard to believe. The planet has warmed by only ≈0.7ºC over the past century and a half. From that minuscule warming comes the misguided belief that climate catastrophe is right around the corner.
There is no scientific evidence to support that false belief. The past 150 years have been extremely benign by historical standards. In the past, global temperatures have abruptly changed by tens of degrees, on decadal time scales — and during times when CO2 was very low.
Tobis and his fellow travelers have invented the “carbon” scare based on …nothing. There are no empirical measurements supporting the belief that CO2 makes any difference. It is a conjecture; a belief. CO2 may cause some very minor warming, but it is too small to measure.
My suggestion to Tobis would be to run back to your thinly-trafficked alarmist blogs, where a small handful of anti-science True Believers get all wound up over something that is simply not happening.

davidmhoffer

mtobis (@mtobis) says:
February 6, 2013 at 9:20 am
Temperature during the snow event was 8 C above normal. Thus there is no intrinsic “logic fail” in considering it a warming-related event as you originally implied.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
Over 90% of all snowfall occurs between +2 and -6 degrees C. In other words, almost any snowfall occurs at temps several degrees above winter norms for a region like Moscow. If it didn’t warm up briefly to that temperature range, it couldn’t snow in appreciable quantities.
But the warm period while it snows is brief, and the air temps for the days and weeks afterward are inevitably colder than usual because snow insulates, keeps heat in the earth, instead of letting it radiate to the atmosphere where ghe can send it back downward. I explained same above to you, which you ignored.

davidmhoffer

thomaswfuller2 says:
February 6, 2013 at 9:51 am
Well, this is a first. I actually think (and have commented at P3) that I think Tobis may be correct and you may be wrong. Growing up in Decatur Illinois we often heard the phrase ‘too cold to snow.’ Usually with an expletive involved.
Makes for an interesting conversation.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I grew up in a climate that makes Decatur Illinois look balmy, and we had the same saying. But it means the opposite of what you seem to think. Large snowfalls are almost always associated with a brief warm period (hours) several degrees above normal. In other words, +8 degrees during a major snowfall is the norm!

“It is interesting that most deniers seem to live in warm climates.”
Patently untrue and based on nothing. He is just making excuses. Living in Iowa for 17 years, we could use some warming. But, that’s not what we are getting. Another Alberta clipper is on the way.

John F. Hultquist

I thought the hypothesis was that slow warming was CO2 caused and would become an important driver of climate/weather only after the mid-point of this century (the 2050s or 2060s). What happened to that timeline?
Statements are made by certain folks about temperature without regard to the differences in altitude and the processes going on. A cold surface temperature does not make for deep snow if that extends upward (with normal lapse rate) and without horizontal movements of air masses. Think of North America’s western mountains, say Mt. Baker in Washington State. The source of moisture is the air moving from off the Pacific Ocean. In contrast, interior Washington State can have a very cold air flow from the northern continental interior (think the Great Slave Lake area) and get almost no snow.
During the 1978 winter we lived in northern Idaho. We did not get much snow but I don’t even like to think about how cold it was. Meanwhile, I will ask where the moisture came from that brought the “huge snowfalls” to the USA Midwest? Did the Arctic Ocean ice disappear the previous summer. Do the charts not show more ice then than now? It is hard to believe that mid-west snow came from Arctic moisture. I’ll guess that air masses from different source regions met there, did a little dance, and then moved on. One doesn’t need CO2 to explain snow and cold at the latitude of Moscow, or Chicago.
I notice that Mr. Tobis still thinks using the term “deniers” helps communication about this topic. Talk about being “clueless.” Also, I lived in Atlanta for 6 weeks in the summer of 1970. I must have picked up my “denier” characteristics then because, otherwise, I have always lived where cold and snow is common in the winter. I visited his site before this – once. Nice you provided the link, but no thanks!

“For the record I grew up in the midwest, and faced the great blizzard of 1978 with its exceptionally cold temperatures and huge snowfalls, plus the Chicago Blizzard of 1979 (to name a couple I experienced firsthand). ”
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I still live in that part of Illinois and recall those snow storms !!!!
Hated every minute of it !!!

D.J. Hawkins

@mtobis:
February 6, 2013 at 9:20 am
Did someone hit you in the head with a brick this morning or are you naturally dense? I refer you to the “US Snowfall Vs Annual Temperature” graph above. Clearly, warmer weather means less snow, not more. Hear that ringing? It’s the clue phone, and it’s for you. Please pick up and try not to be an embarrassment to your posterity, if you have any.

Doug

“Within a few years winter snowfall will become a very rare and exciting event. Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
— Dr David Viner, senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia

Snow and heat waves before the 1990’s for historical context.
1900-1910
11 August 1900,
It was reported in the US that 26 die in record high temperatures of up to 107 degrees F.
2 July 1900,
In New York Nearly 400 people die in one day during a heat wave, with Temperatures up to 110 degrees F (37 degrees C) in the shade.
5 February 1904,
In Chicago a Polar Bear freezes to death in the zoo after three nights of -15 degrees F.
31 August 1906.
London: A heat wave brings Temperatures as high a 93 degrees Fahrenheit in the shade
4 September 1906.
London: Huge downpour ends the heat wave.
28 December 1906.
In Scotland 13 die when a train is derailed by snow on the track north of Dundee.
24 January 1907.
Europe: Arctic weather grips the Continent; it is -30 degrees Fahrenheit in Austria.
1911-1919
9 July 1911,
US: 652 deaths in a week are reported during a heat wave.
9 August 1911,
London: Hottest day in the capital for 70 years, 97 degree Fahrenheit in the shade.
26 August 1911,
London: Reported that 2500 children have died in the recent heat wave.
28 August 1911,
London: Thousands Die in record heat wave and has set Britain’s death rate soaring; with a mortality rate for all ages of 19 per 1,000.
4 February 1912,
UK: Big Freeze takes hold as temperatures drop to as low as -35 degrees F.
14 February 1912,
London: Reported that 2 per cent of the capitals population are dying weekly from cold.
1920-1929
(25 June 1921,UK: Rainfall ends 100-day drought.)
28 January 1922,
Washington: 107 people die when the Knickerbocker Theater collapses under the weight of snow.
22 May 1922,
London: The highest May temperatures for 50 years, 88 degrees F in the shade recorded.
25 December 1927,
UK A white Christmas as Britain is swept by freezing blizzards.
31 December 1927,
UK: Food supplies are air-dropped into villages cut off by snow.
11 March 1928,
UK: Blizzards sweep Britain; it is -9 degrees Celsius (16F) in London.
1930- 1939
11 July 1930,
Chicago: 72 people die in a heat wave.
28 August 1930,
UK: 34 people have died in a heat wave: temperatures in London soar to 94 degrees F (34 degrees C).
28 August 1933,
UK: Drought threatens as the temperature touches 90 degrees F (32 degrees C).
4 September 1933,
UK: Forest fires rage through Dorset and Hampshire following recent dry weather.
2 June 1934,
Washington: $6,000 million aid is voted for farmers in drought-stricken areas.
21 June 1934,
US A heat wave in the Mid-West kills 206 people in three days.
11 April 1935,
The dust storm that swept across the USA’s “Bread Basket” created a staggering trail of destruction. Kansas, Colorado, Wyoming, Okalahoma, Texas and New Mexico were all affected. Increasingly severe dust storms are hanging like a black scourge over half the country, wiping out millions of dollars’ worth of crops, forcing thousands to flee their homes and paralyzing all activity in some districts. While humans can protect themselves with masks during a storm, livestock suffer miserably. The incidence of dust pneumonia among children is growing. Little relief is in sight, as dust piles up inside houses; schools and business are closed; traffic is stopped and bereaved families cannot bury their dead. In Texas, even the birds are afraid to fly.
5 August 1935,
Brilliant sunshine lured more Britons to the coast and countryside than on any previous Bank Holiday. So many people poured into Brighton – police estimated there were 500,000 day visitors – that in places the shingle was invisible beneath the bodies.
10 December 1937,
Glasgow: 34 die and 92 are injured when an express train crashes in a blizzard.
11 July 1938,
Eskimos in the Arctic complain of a heat wave: it is 67 degrees F (19C).
1940-1949
17 January 1940,
UK: The Thames freezes for the first time as a cold wave strikes Europe.
19 January 1940,
Finland: The Russo-Finnish winter war; the intense Cold – in Karelia it is 57 degrees below zero – has stopped all action on all fronts, and an appalling number of troops on both sides have been frozen to death.
30 April 1940,
Norway: Snow has been falling heavily in the region, and this has delayed the landing of British troops, who are not equipped for arctic operations.
21 November 1941,
USSR: With the prevailing temperature 27 degrees below freezing point, the unprepared Germans are seizing the warm winter clothing of the Russian people in the occupied territory.
29 January 1947,
UK: Chaos and power cuts spread as freezing weather grips Britain; the temperature today fell to -16 degrees F.
12 February 1947,
UK: Heavy snowstorms and subzero temperatures are combining with serious fuel shortage to bring Britain to its economic knees. Over four million workers have been made idle by power cuts. Non-stop blizzards have stopped all shipping in the channel. The Great North road is blocked for 22 miles by ten-foot drifts.
26 February 1947,
UK: Domestic fuel ration seems likely as the freezing weather continues.
3 March 1947,
UK: 800,000 return to work as some power is restored.
6 March 1947,
UK: 300 roads are blocked and 15 towns cut off by the snow as the appalling weather continues.
March 1947,
UK: Like a great deal of the country, the town of Shrewsbury has suffered in the floods after the big freeze.
1950-1959
31 January 1954,
UK: 23 people are reported to have died in accidents on frozen Ice as wintry weather grips Britain.
31 January 1954,
UK: 23 people are reported to have died in accidents on frozen Ice as wintry weather grips Britain.
25 February 1955,
UK: 70 main roads remain impassable because of snow and ice.
1970-1979
7 August 1975,
London: The capital has its hottest day for 35 years with temperatures of 32 degrees C.
2 June 1976,
London: The city has a record temperature of 95 degrees F (35C).
14 July 1976,
London: Publication of the Drought Bill to tackle Britain’s worst drought in 250 years.
31 August 1976,
UK: There had not been a summer like it this century; temperatures soared and all parts of the UK basked in record hours of sunshine. Suddenly it was time for barbecues, bikinis in Hyde Park, endless queues for ice creams and cold drinks … and drought. Industry suffered water rationing, and several companies in the Midlands were forced to curtail their working week. Forest fires raged in the south – and fire men watched impotently as hundreds of acres of the New Forest and other woodland were destroyed. With no sign of a break in the weather, the government was becoming increasingly worried by a potentially disastrous national water shortage. Reservoirs were drying up and their clay bottoms were cracking in the heat. Householders were advised to use their bath water to water their gardens, to avoid over-flushing their lavatories and to place bricks in their cisterns. Dirty cars were patriotic and draconian penalties were introduced for the use of garden hoses. The avuncular sports Minister Denis Howell, was created “Minister for Drought” and warned that unless consumption was cut by a half all over Britain, the country would almost certainly face water rationing until Christmas. Then, today the rains came and Britons could complain, once more, about their awful climate.
20 February 1978,
UK: South-west England suffers its worst blizzard for many years.
1980-1989
January 1985,
Nice: The Arctic weather puts the beach at Nice under a blanket of snow.
2 February 1986,
Europe: Over 34 deaths are reported as blizzards and freezing weather sweeps much of Western Europe.
26 July 1987,
Greece: Over 700 die from heat wave in Greece. Hospitals and military clinics were struggling to handle an influx of casualties as temperatures continue to soar.

Good catch, Anthony. Tobis had zero credibility before. Now he’s into negative numbers.

kim

Tobis and other alarmists are reverting to voodoo. It’s just that simple, folks.
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TomRude

Tobis’ claim is as ridiculous as Suzuki’s about the absence of snow on Cypress Mountain during the 2010 Vancouver Olympics… Moreover, Tobis should know that the energy dissipated in storms depends on the cold/warm gradient. Had he checked satellite images he would have realized this snow resulted from a deep southerly penetration by a powerful MPH -i.e. cold, HP air- that advected moist warmer eastern mediterranean air over western Russia. As usual warmists have only a very sketchy understanding of weather and every time they try to connect it to their pet theory, they fall flat on their face.

RockyRoad

Michael Tobis–a perfect example of “Don’t bother me with reality; what I’m looking for is a good* fantasy”.
* good: improves my CAGW cred; helps with grant acquisition; panders to the UN and the current US administration; emboldens Genocidal Warmistas.

RCase

Some Chutzpah on Tobis’ part, eh? While he won’t allow Anthony to comment on his site, he has no problem coming here and Anthony allowing his voice be heard.
Again, which side is it that’s supposed to be so “open minded” ?