From the FECYT – Spanish Foundation for Science and Technology and the snowfalls are now just a thing of the past department comes this press release, one much like those we’ve heard before that have not come to pass.
Maybe the researchers never saw this video from 2010 of massive snowfalls in Spain
Climate change could cause massive losses in Pyrenees ski resorts
An increase in temperatures due to climate change could mean that the Andorran ski resorts have a shorter season in the future, especially in lower areas. A study undertaken by the Polytechnic University of Catalonia and the Andorran Sustainability Observatory has analysed the specific case of the Pyrenean country and predicted that financial losses could come close to 50 million euros.
One of the major challenges when studying climate change effects is to establish the relationship between physical impacts and environmental changes on the one hand, and between these factors and impact on humans on the other hand.
An international study enjoying the participation of the Polytechnic University of Catalonia has investigated the particular case of Andorra and has demonstrated a predicted increase in temperatures as a result of climate change will shorten the ski season in the resorts of the principality.
Furthermore, depending on the predicted climate change scene, a fall in income has been predicted along with lesser adaptation capacity provided by snow production machines.
Published in the ‘Climate Research‘ journal, the study estimates a reduction in the number of skiers, especially in lower altitude resorts.
The mountain regions are considered especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change. “The rapid decrease in glacier mass, quantity and frequency changes of snowfall, level variations and biodiversity distribution are examples of how mountain ecosystems are highly sensitive,” as explained to SINC by Marc Pons from the Sustainability Measuring and Modelling Laboratory of the Polytechnic University of Catalonia and the Andorran Sustainability Observatory and coauthor of the study.
Andorra is a small country in the middle of the Pyrenees between France and Spain with a population of approximately 80,000 inhabitants. It receives 10 million tourists each year according to data from Andorra Turisme 2010, especially during the winter season. Snow tourism is one of its main sources of income used for local development.
The study analysed three ski resorts in the principality: Grand Valira, Pal-Arinsal and Arcalís. And it is based on three possible scenarios as a consequence of climate change: the current situation and two possible future conditions.
Out of the last two, the first considers an increase of 2 ºC in the average winter temperature whereas the second is based on an increase of 4 ºC.
“We have employed these temperature increase figures based on two of the scenarios from the SRES report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which are predicted as plausible for the Pyrenees at the end of the 21st century,” states Pons.
The estimations have allowed them to analyse possible consequences, such as reduction of the ski season over time, the subsequent decrease in the number of skiers and thus what they would spend when visiting the region.
The importance of attitude
In the study, the altitude of skiable terrain is “one of the most determining factors in the vulnerability of the resorts,” adds Pons. An assessment was made of the future snow cover of each one of the tourist resorts at various altitudes: 1500 metres, 2000 metres and 2500 metres.
Pons adds that studying different altitudes “is important to analyse the capacity of the resorts to compensate for climatic variability by using artificial snow production.” He outlines that in recent decades, “resorts have invested significant amounts of money in artificial snow production.”
In the case of Andorra, around 50% of the ski zones are covered by such snow production systems.
In addition, the researcher explains that there are “a great variety within the same region, which means that two resort groups now arise: those that are more vulnerable and those that are resilient, like Arcalís.”
More specifically, if the temperature were to increase by 2 ºC in winter, only the lowest areas of Pal-Arinsal would be affected and the ski season would be shortened by 30%. This would mean a reduction in the number of skiers and investment in the region would be very small.
In contrast, in the case of a 4 ºC increase, the three tourist resorts would suffer from serious reductions in their lower altitude areas, where even the snow production machines could not even help to save the ski season. Nonetheless, the higher areas would remain stable throughout the season.
Delicate Pal-Arinsal and privileged Arcalís
The most critical of situations would be that of Pal-Arinsal, which could not even continue even with snow production machines. On the other hand, Grand-Valira and Arcalís would carry on, although with a shorter ski period.
In this context, a 15% decrease would be recorded in visitors with losses of approximately 50 million euros each season. In this case the resorts receiving the most visitors (Pal Arinsal and Grand Valira) would be affected both at the very beginning and at the end of the season.
Nonetheless, “aside from the figures themselves, the most important factor is the capacity to relate to physical changes,” adds Pons.
The researcher points out that despite the influence of altitude, “there are other determining factors, such as orography and orientation, which have a strong influence and therefore should be considered in future studies.”
This type of study helps governments to acquire deep and detailed knowledge on areas or resorts that are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change, the range of possible impacts and what adaptation measures are more suitable for each specific area.”
Referencia bibliográfica:
Marc Pons-Pons, Peter A. Johnson, Martí Rosas-Casals, Bàrbara Sureda, Èric Jover. “Modeling climate change effects on winter ski tourism in Andorra”. Climate Research.
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Paul:
Great selection of pictures.Here in northern Massachusetts we have had a week where the temperature has not gone above 32F, with nighttime temps in the single digits. The air is amazingly dry – at night, I can see moisture crystallizing under cloud free skies. The previous weeks were above average. This is weather and not untypical for this area of the country.
And if they destroy the European economy how many people will have the money to go skiing?
The main threat to European ski areas is the self-inflicted gushing economic wounds of all the CAGW craziness – a trillion dollars or so worth of windmills and solar at 80c a kWh.
Where do they find these false winter gurus. They look back a decade or two only and think that they know the future .
. A David Suzuki Foundation report issued just before the 2010 Olympics predicted that the average ski season in Quebec will be cut in half in only 10 years.
Montreal are just had the record snowfall beating the old 1971 figure.
David Phillips of Environment Canada recently said , “The lesson for this is if you get one (a white Christmas): Embrace it, enjoy it because it is something that future generations will have (to) be dreaming a little harder to get. We know the future is warmer and with less snow.”
Most of Canada is covered in snow. I noticed that all of Canada had temperatures below zero last week with some as low as -40C
A climate consulting firm predicted that the Toronto region snow fall would drop by 110.5 cm from 153.8 cm in the next 30 years by 2040
Toronto had 216 cm of snow in 2008
There are 985 kilometers (612 miles) of sky trails in 907 ski resorts in Spain right now. Over 3 meters deep (10 feet) in some places.
Hard to believe that snow “could” be a thing of the past.
http://www.cadenaser.com/deportes/articulo/espectacular-parte-nieve-estaciones/csrcsrpor/20130125csrcsrdep_2/Tes
http://www.cadenaser.com/recorte/20130125csrcsrdep_3/LCO668/Ies/Gran-nevada-Candanchu.jpg
Here in the west end of Newcastle (55 deg North) we had an accumulation of 15″ of the stuff, it is now thawing. Had I listened to Viner, when I changed my car in April I would have bought another rear wheel drive saloon that would have sat in the garage for the last week next to my wife’s Mercedes. Fortunately I bought an Audi with 4 wheel drive which had no problems in the snow or ice.
The other big advantage of the snow is it keeps the BBC quiet about climate change!
Just flew over the Pyrenees yesterday, and they look whiter than I have seen them in a long time. (Been flying over them for 30 years).
.
Viner not only stands by his fail predictions, he claims to be a Nobel Prize winner!:
==========================================================================
“Nobel Peace Prize winner to deliver climate change talk
The subject of climate change will be up for discussion at Anglia Ruskin University on Monday, 23 January when environmental expert and Nobel Peace Prize recipient Dr David Viner will deliver a talk”
This will be another IPPC melting Himalayan glaciers scare then!
Re Whistler/Blackcombe: I have skied Blackcombe in July and Aug of 1989 completing my goal of skiing in the Northern Hemisphere every month of the year. But the earth has warmed up quite a bit since then.
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/17838846-post3.html
Say what?
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/17840119-post4.html
Put some Wind Turbines up there
As others have pointed out, the biggest threat to the Ski Resorts is the lack of a paying clientele due to no jobs or money from imploding central planned economies and “Green Jobs” (that, one presumes, are green due to sitting in the box mouldering…)
Isn’t the President of Andorra paid, as part of his salary, his own weight in potatoes once each year? If agriculture is impacted, he might have to lose some weight or there will be food supply consequences.
It’s as if the last 16 years never happened. These ‘scientists’ are asleep at the wheel.
Oh, Anthony, you made a typing error re: A study undertaken by the Polytechnic University of Catalonia……
A study undertaken by the Polytechnic University of Catatonia….
…there. Fixed it for you!
Validating stupid by funding stupid just gets more stupid, in every way.