By Phillip Gentry, UAH
Globally, 2012 was ninth warmest of the past 34 years; In the U.S., 2012 sets a new record high temperature Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.14 C per decade December temperatures (preliminary)
Global composite temp.: +0.20 C (about 0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year averagefor December.
Northern Hemisphere: +0.14 C (about 0.25 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for December.
Southern Hemisphere: +0.26 C (about 0.47 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for December.
Tropics: +0.13 C (about 0.23 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for December.
November temperatures (revised):
Global Composite: +0.28 C above 30-year average
Northern Hemisphere: +0.30 C above 30-year average
Southern Hemisphere: +0.27 C above 30-year average
Tropics: +0.17 C above 30-year average
(All temperature anomalies are based on a 30-year average (1981-2010) for the month reported.)
Notes on data released Jan. 3, 2013:
Globally, 2012 was the ninth warmest year among the past 34, with an annual global average temperature that was 0.161 C (about 0.29 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the 30-year baseline average, according to Dr. John Christy, a professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. 2012 was about three one-hundredths of a degree C warmer than 2011, but was 0.23 C cooler than 2010.
Eleven of the 12 warmest years in the satellite temperature record have been been since 2001. From 2001 to the present only 2008 was cooler than the long-term norm for the globe. Despite that string of warmer-than-normal years, there has been no measurable warming trend since about 1998. The long-term warming trend reported in the satellite data is calculated using data beginning on Nov. 16, 1978.
1979 through 2012
Warmest to coolest
1. 1998 0.419
2. 2010 0.394
3. 2005 0.260
4. 2002 0.218
5. 2009 0.218
6. 2007 0.202
7. 2003 0.187
8. 2006 0.186
9. 2012 0.161
10. 2011 0.130
11. 2004 0.108
12. 2001 0.107
13. 1991 0.020
14. 1987 0.013
15. 1995 0.013
16. 1988 0.012
17. 1980 -0.008
18. 2008 -0.009
19. 1990 -0.022
20. 1981 -0.045
21. 1997 -0.049
22. 1999 -0.056
23. 1983 -0.061
24. 2000 -0.061
25. 1996 -0.076
26. 1994 -0.108
27. 1979 -0.170
28. 1989 -0.207
29. 1986 -0.244
30. 1993 -0.245
31. 1982 -0.250
32. 1992 -0.289
33. 1985 -0.309
34. 1984 -0.353
(Degrees C above or below the long-term norm.)
While 2012 was only the ninth warmest year globally, it was the warmest year on record for both the contiguous 48 U.S. states and for the continental U.S., including Alaska. For the U.S., 2012 started with one of the three warmest Januaries in the 34-year record, saw a record-setting March heat wave, and stayed warm enough for the rest of the year to set a record.
Compared to seasonal norms, March 2012 was the warmest month on record in the 48 contiguous U.S. states. Temperatures over the U.S. averaged 2.82 C (almost 5.1° Fahrenheit) warmer than normal in March; the warmest spot on the globe that month was in northern Iowa. The annual average temperature over the conterminous 48 states in 2012 was 0.555 C (about 0.99 degrees F) warmer than seasonal norms.
Compared to seasonal norms, the coolest area on the globe throughout 2012 was central Mongolia, where temperatures averaged about 1.39 C (about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) cooler than seasonal norms. The warmest area was north of central Russia in the Kara Sea, where temperatures averaged 2.53 C (about 4.55 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than seasonal norms for 2012.
Compared to seasonal norms, over the past month the coldest area on the globe was eastern Mongolia, where temperatures were as much as 4.55 C (about 8.19 degrees Fahrenheit) cooler than seasonal norms. The “warmest” area was off the coast of the Antarctic near South America, where temperatures averaged 3.79 C (about 6.82 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than seasonal norms for December.
Archived color maps of local temperature anomalies are available on-line at:
The processed temperature data is available on-line at:
vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt
As part of an ongoing joint project between UAHuntsville, NOAA and NASA, John Christy, a professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center (ESSC) at The University of Alabama in Huntsville, and Dr. Roy Spencer, an ESSC principal scientist, use data gathered by advanced microwave sounding units on NOAA and NASA satellites to get accurate temperature readings for almost all regions of the Earth. This includes remote desert, ocean and rain forest areas where reliable climate data are not otherwise available.
The satellite-based instruments measure the temperature of the atmosphere from the surface up to an altitude of about eight kilometers above sea level. Once the monthly temperature data is collected and processed, it is placed in a “public” computer file for immediate access by atmospheric scientists in the U.S. and abroad.
Neither Christy nor Spencer receives any research support or funding from oil, coal or industrial companies or organizations, or from any private or special interest groups. All of their climate research funding comes from federal and state grants or contracts.
— 30 —
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Watcher said: “I’m not seeing in NOAA’s scientific reports anything that supports the claim above that 1998 was the warmest year since 1978. “1979 through 2012Warmest to coolest” data chart.
NOAA data contradicts that assertion”
using this reference:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110112_globalstats.html
That report includes error ranges for the first time, +/-0.07C on the figures.
So Watcher if you dig a little deeper into the numbers you can see with 95% confidence that all years since and including 1998 are indistinguishable, with the exception of 1999 and 2000 (both cooler). The only other separation is 2010 is warmer than 2008 (the low end of 2010 is only 0.0087C higher than the high end of 2008 though).
So the NOAA data does not contradict the assertion, the report introduces error ranges for the first time but doesn’t use them in discussing the hottest years.
Data here: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/annual.land_ocean.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat
climatebeagle January 4, 2013 at 9:58 am
That NOAA reference for which you give an address is worthless. First, they claim that 2010 and 2005 are tied for highest temperature. Both are lower than 1998 according to satellites. Their ground-based data simply have poor resolution and do not show the actual height of the 1998 super El Nino. That is important because 2010 happens to be the peak year of the 2010 El Nino and you cannot draw a global temperature curve by using just El Nino peaks, especially if you can’t even measure their height properly. To determine the mean global temperature you must average the El Nino peak temperature and the neighboring La Nina bottom temperature. They alternate like that, going back as far as temperature records exist. You can do this by hand or you can approximate it by using a running mean of say, 11 years which is about twice the length of an ENSO cycle. Reporting just the El Nino peak temperatures is deceptive. But if you do that, say so and make it your business to show the El Nino peaks correctly which their twisted ground-based records do not do well. Their records are also suspect because of constant revisions that nobody is told about as well as computer processing that goes back at least 33 years. They did not know this but one of their computer sessions had an unanticipated consequence when it left sharp temperature spikes sticking up at the beginnings of many years. So far I have determined that these anthropogenic spikes exist in exactly the same places in GISTEMP, NCDC, and HadCRUT temperature curves. Looks like the processing was done to the ancestor of these three curves and was later thought of as noise, not an anthropogenic artifact. We don’t know what is going on now but divergences between different data sets could all be due to behind the scenes manipulation that we don’t know anything about. There probably is a law against manipulation of data sets passed off as original data.
Climate Ace.
Ever heard of “cherry picking”? I know that place perfectly well. They were the only place in all of AUS that received no rains (***) when everywhere else was being deluged.
(***) Or should we say did not report the rains. It was spooky to see the national map with one little tiny, tiny, minuscule area by the sea not receive a drop! If you are one of those Carbonazis I suggest you shoot all the aboriginals because the recent NASA night image of AUS was ruined with all those fires.
Arno Arrak at: January 4, 2013 at 1:35 pm
I was just showing Watcher at January 3, 2013 at 9:04 pm that the actual NOAA data he relies on to show 1998 was not the warmest year actually shows something different.
James Ard – thank you! I figured out Steve Mosher’s angle somewhat asynchronously after a night’s sleep. I feel like less red wine or fewer birthdays would help.
Steve Mosher – You are somewhat right. If lower temperatures don’t show up, I will be surprised but not devastated. As I said, a glance at the data shows the cyclical effect is small, and I don’t think the instrumental record really gives a clue what happens when the sun falls off a cliff like this cycle is winding up to do.
Andyj
Climate Ace.
Ever heard of “cherry picking”? I know that place perfectly well. They were the only place in all of AUS that received no rains (***) when everywhere else was being deluged.
(***) Or should we say did not report the rains. It was spooky to see the national map with one little tiny, tiny, minuscule area by the sea not receive a drop! If you are one of those Carbonazis I suggest you shoot all the aboriginals because the recent NASA night image of AUS was ruined with all those fires.
I admire your perfect knowledge. The rest of us can but aspire. As for the rest of your post, I trust that the moderater will re-read it and expunge it on the grounds that it:
(a) makes a personal attack on another poster
(b) makes light of the real Nazis who trashed europe and russia and who were responsible for the mass murder of millions and the collateral deaths of tens of millions of innoncent people;
(c) makes up data about rainfall on a blog dedicated to scientific facts
(d) encourages the genocide of Australia’s Indigenous population.
But since the moderator saw fit to publish another post which abused the memory of the Holocaust to make an obscure point about climate science, I doubt it.
[Reply: WUWT moderates with a light touch. The comment you cite was not out of bounds. If we started censoring comments that someone didn’t like, we would be no different from alarmist blogs. You have the right to respond. Take advantage of it. Readers will make up their own minds, and the truth will eventually emerge. — mod.]
Henry@Werner
thanks
RERT says
If lower temperatures don’t show up, I will be surprised but not devastated. As I said…
Henry says
I would be very surprised, This is the cycle we are in:
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/10/02/best-sine-wave-fit-for-the-drop-in-global-maximum-temperatures/
We will drop
ca. -0.3K in the next 8 yrs.
HenryP January 4, 2013 at 7:00 am
To illustrate why you think that UAH must be wrong you refer us to a Woodfortrees temperature chart showing both UAH and RSS data on the same graph since 1998. These people draw two straight lines through the entire plot starting in 1998. That is dead wrong. You must not include the super El Nino and the step temperature rise that follows after a La Nina dip with 21st century temperatures. You have to start your trend line for the 21st century from 2001 and if you do that you discover that RSS trend line points down and shows a temperature decrease of 0.1 degrees in twelve years while UAH is horizontal – no trend either way. I have noticed this divergence before and think that RSS is monkeying with their temperature data.
Dang ! does that “satellite record” filter eliminate the moon, or do you have to say “artificial” satellite record; well that would be anthropogenic satellite record, I guess.
But that is awefully constraining, since I’m quite sure that the first ASRs did not appear prior to 1957, when I filed a newspaper report on something called Sputnik, so we hardly have much of a time scale relative to the SI unit of climate time; aka 30 years.
So that leads me to observe; for the umpteenth time, that it is simply amazing how the highest values in a data stream tend to gather around any local maxima in that data.
It’s similar to the reason for mountains tending to be higher altitudes, than valleys or ocean depths.
So 2012 was ninth warmest in the neighborhood of the present local maximum; Ripper Mate !!
What is quite noticeable is the UAH graphics matches the local regions temperature much closer than the surface data sets for HAD4 and GISS do. Just shows how much better satellite data sets are in the detail.
A reminder for those that didn’t know, HAD3 had December 2010 about 0.5c to 1c above average for the UK when it was the second coldest December recorded.
A.rno Arrak says
You have to start your trend line for the 21st century from 2001 and if you do that you discover that RSS trend line points down and shows a temperature decrease of 0.1 degrees in twelve years while UAH is horizontal – I have noticed this divergence before and think that RSS is monkeying with their temperature data
Henry says
NO. RSS is fine, as it corresponds with all other data.
UAH is wrong, going up insteasd of down , as compared with all other data
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2013/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2013/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2002/to:2013/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2002/to:2013/trend/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2013/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2013/trend/plot/gistemp/from:2002/to:2013/plot/gistemp/from:2002/to:2013/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/to:2013/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/to:2013/trend/plot/uah/from:2002/to:2012/trend
From http://icecap.us/ on Jan 5th, 2013
Since late November the country has shivered at an average of minus 3.8 degrees Celsius, 1.3 degrees colder than the previous average, and the chilliest in 28 years, state news agency Xinhua said on Saturday, citing the China Meteorological Administration. The cold in Eurasia and elsewhere offset warmth in the US and created global temperatures below the NCEP model normal for December.
I been following the record lows this December.
Bitter cold has covered the globe in Dec-Jan. How can this article claim this, “Northern Hemisphere: +0.14 C (about 0.25 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for December.”
Once again, I don’t believe it. And the NCEP agrees with me.
And Matt G says, A reminder for those that didn’t know, HAD3 had December 2010 about 0.5c to 1c above average for the UK when it was the second coldest December recorded.
That’s what I’m talking about–something is not being reported correctly and I’d like Phillip, John Cristy, or Dr. Spencer to tell us what it is.
[Sorry, per site Policy we don’t discuss HAARP. — mod.]