By Phillip Gentry, UAH
Globally, 2012 was ninth warmest of the past 34 years; In the U.S., 2012 sets a new record high temperature Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.14 C per decade December temperatures (preliminary)
Global composite temp.: +0.20 C (about 0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year averagefor December.
Northern Hemisphere: +0.14 C (about 0.25 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for December.
Southern Hemisphere: +0.26 C (about 0.47 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for December.
Tropics: +0.13 C (about 0.23 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for December.
November temperatures (revised):
Global Composite: +0.28 C above 30-year average
Northern Hemisphere: +0.30 C above 30-year average
Southern Hemisphere: +0.27 C above 30-year average
Tropics: +0.17 C above 30-year average
(All temperature anomalies are based on a 30-year average (1981-2010) for the month reported.)
Notes on data released Jan. 3, 2013:
Globally, 2012 was the ninth warmest year among the past 34, with an annual global average temperature that was 0.161 C (about 0.29 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the 30-year baseline average, according to Dr. John Christy, a professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. 2012 was about three one-hundredths of a degree C warmer than 2011, but was 0.23 C cooler than 2010.
Eleven of the 12 warmest years in the satellite temperature record have been been since 2001. From 2001 to the present only 2008 was cooler than the long-term norm for the globe. Despite that string of warmer-than-normal years, there has been no measurable warming trend since about 1998. The long-term warming trend reported in the satellite data is calculated using data beginning on Nov. 16, 1978.
1979 through 2012
Warmest to coolest
1. 1998 0.419
2. 2010 0.394
3. 2005 0.260
4. 2002 0.218
5. 2009 0.218
6. 2007 0.202
7. 2003 0.187
8. 2006 0.186
9. 2012 0.161
10. 2011 0.130
11. 2004 0.108
12. 2001 0.107
13. 1991 0.020
14. 1987 0.013
15. 1995 0.013
16. 1988 0.012
17. 1980 -0.008
18. 2008 -0.009
19. 1990 -0.022
20. 1981 -0.045
21. 1997 -0.049
22. 1999 -0.056
23. 1983 -0.061
24. 2000 -0.061
25. 1996 -0.076
26. 1994 -0.108
27. 1979 -0.170
28. 1989 -0.207
29. 1986 -0.244
30. 1993 -0.245
31. 1982 -0.250
32. 1992 -0.289
33. 1985 -0.309
34. 1984 -0.353
(Degrees C above or below the long-term norm.)
While 2012 was only the ninth warmest year globally, it was the warmest year on record for both the contiguous 48 U.S. states and for the continental U.S., including Alaska. For the U.S., 2012 started with one of the three warmest Januaries in the 34-year record, saw a record-setting March heat wave, and stayed warm enough for the rest of the year to set a record.
Compared to seasonal norms, March 2012 was the warmest month on record in the 48 contiguous U.S. states. Temperatures over the U.S. averaged 2.82 C (almost 5.1° Fahrenheit) warmer than normal in March; the warmest spot on the globe that month was in northern Iowa. The annual average temperature over the conterminous 48 states in 2012 was 0.555 C (about 0.99 degrees F) warmer than seasonal norms.
Compared to seasonal norms, the coolest area on the globe throughout 2012 was central Mongolia, where temperatures averaged about 1.39 C (about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) cooler than seasonal norms. The warmest area was north of central Russia in the Kara Sea, where temperatures averaged 2.53 C (about 4.55 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than seasonal norms for 2012.
Compared to seasonal norms, over the past month the coldest area on the globe was eastern Mongolia, where temperatures were as much as 4.55 C (about 8.19 degrees Fahrenheit) cooler than seasonal norms. The “warmest” area was off the coast of the Antarctic near South America, where temperatures averaged 3.79 C (about 6.82 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than seasonal norms for December.
Archived color maps of local temperature anomalies are available on-line at:
The processed temperature data is available on-line at:
vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt
As part of an ongoing joint project between UAHuntsville, NOAA and NASA, John Christy, a professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center (ESSC) at The University of Alabama in Huntsville, and Dr. Roy Spencer, an ESSC principal scientist, use data gathered by advanced microwave sounding units on NOAA and NASA satellites to get accurate temperature readings for almost all regions of the Earth. This includes remote desert, ocean and rain forest areas where reliable climate data are not otherwise available.
The satellite-based instruments measure the temperature of the atmosphere from the surface up to an altitude of about eight kilometers above sea level. Once the monthly temperature data is collected and processed, it is placed in a “public” computer file for immediate access by atmospheric scientists in the U.S. and abroad.
Neither Christy nor Spencer receives any research support or funding from oil, coal or industrial companies or organizations, or from any private or special interest groups. All of their climate research funding comes from federal and state grants or contracts.
— 30 —
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Crispin in Waterloo says:
January 3, 2013 at 4:44 pm (responding to)
@Gail
(also)
D Böehm:
To the contrary, there is a very real possibility that “CO2 IS responsible for the late 20th century warming” … but not because of the its much-hyped and research greenhouse gas effects and their exaggerated (always positive!) model-driven feedbacks.
Rather, consider whether the earth’s land-only albedo – land, tundra, evergreen and pine forests, deciduous forests, fields, jungles, steppes, grasslands and grapevines – has “gone greener” by perhaps 5-8% over the past 50 years. All that would be required is a small change from 0.31 to 0.33 for example.
And, cities, suburbs, counties, and farmlands ARE greener and darker now because EVERY plant on earth is suddenly growing 17% – 23% more limbs, more leaves, more branches, and more fruit due to the increase in phosphates and nitrates as fertilizer, water, and CO2 that now available. But ocean growth? Not so much – though plankton increase, but ocean albedo won’t be as affected as land-albedo.
Would not that single fact alone – NEVER mentioned nor researched! – account for a warming of land-based temperatures worldwide? Would not a darker tundra and forest and fields and meadows in summer – and more limbs and trees in the winter INCREASE mid-land arctic temperatures, but leave water temperatures as-is? Which is what has happened – the DMI reading actual air temperatures at 80 north latitude – reports NO increase in summertime temperatures since 1959.
Would not more green mass increase albedo over every square kilometer capable of bearing life, but not change extreme deserts and mid-continent (high, dry, desolate bare rock) deserts and extreme mountain ranges?
trafamadore says: “Last year Michigan lost a good deal of its fruit crop after the Feb/Mar early spring followed by the normal freezes in April. Then the corn got incinerated in June and July. Bad year for farmers here.”
D Böehm says: “So, what’s your point?”
Not sure I am allowed to make a point on this blog. I suddenly use the wrong email address these days.
But I think I was agreeing with the record US temps, based on living here in Michigan and watching. In a different time, before global food distribution, we would have been no different than Arkansas in the dust bowl times….when normal people starved.
9th warmest? And what would that be in terms of coolest? We seem to be getting to the point where these nonsensical pronouncements will begin to sound ludicrous to even liberals!!!!!!! Next year we could be facing the 12th warmest year! Only Obama would get all twitter pated over that one.
Arno Arrak says
“First, there was a step warming caused by the super El Nino that raised global temperature by 0.3 degrees”
I think the change in the AMO more closely correlates with the step in global temperatures.
http://stateoftheocean.osmc.noaa.gov/atm/amo.php
Also most of the ocean heat gain corresponds with the North Atlantic rather than the equator.. When the AMO drops off in the next few years Like the PDO did the game is over for AGW. Even the Berkely group recognizes this. .
Pamela, if 2013 turns out to be the 12th warmest year on record, people will then spout that 12 of the 13 years of this century are the hottest on record. This is the problem with publishing this sort of data. Of course if 2013 turns out to be the hottest, then you will never hear the end of it. Similar to when it was first determined that 1998 was the hottest year on record. Of course, you would have to change the phrase: ‘but it hasn’t warmed since 1998’ to ‘it hasn’t warmed since 2013’ for subsequent years, but that is easily done as before 1998, we used to say ‘but it hasn’t warmed since 1991’.
If you have confidence in the temp data then enjoy the weather while it lasts, and don’t forget to stock up on warm undies for future comfort.
Even fur may come back into fashion. Heating oil has been taxed out of grasp in India so now wood is burned for building heat. Great progress! Is this our future?
a very sad sarc/
A quick and short followup.
The fur trade made the Northeast US a very profitable place in the pre Revolution US.
Would anyone want to hazard a guess why?
@RACookPE1978
I would love to see the calcualtioon of the amount of energy required to create the surge in plant growth.
trafamadore says: January 3, 2013 at 6:46 pm
But I think I was agreeing with the record US temps, based on living here in Michigan and watching. In a different time, before global food distribution, we would have been no different than Arkansas in the dust bowl times….when normal people starved.
===================================
Welcome back tramador. Just want to caution you about the agricultural experts that we have lurking around this bog. They show no mercy when they find a victim. I’ve seen some real hatchett jobs. Just a friendly warning.
9th warmest year out of 34 means–it’s solidly in the middle of the pack!
Yes, folks, the USA may have had its hottest year ever, but the USA is only
2% of the Earth’s surface–as the warmists like to point out. Elsewhere
around our large and varied world, this pas year was NOTHING SPECIAL.
Yep, we are surely all going to die from the world getting so hot so
quickly.
/sarc
Pleeeeease, Based on how the global temperature is calculated and comparing to some date in the past, it’s warmer now. It’s OK to tell the truth. How much warmer and man’s role in that is debatable. What mankind should do about it without knowing the truth is cart before the horse politics.
Does it make sense to collapse a year into a single figure and from that say it is warmer than another year. On that basis San Francisco is warmer than New York.
Just wondering if there’s a better way of comparing two years.
9/34 … not a very impressive trend is it.
Chris R
Yes, folks, the USA may have had its hottest year ever, but the USA is only
2% of the Earth’s surface–as the warmists like to point out. Elsewhere
around our large and varied world, this pas year was NOTHING SPECIAL.
Yep, we are surely all going to die from the world getting so hot so
quickly.
So, the US doesn’t count? Really?
That aside, spare a thought for the 86 Euclans who inhabit an infinitisimal percentage of the earth’s surface. They are probably right this moment having a bit of a really hard think about whether polynomial cointegration really is heating the planet. Something has to be cooking the place up:
http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&ved=0CF0QFjAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FEucla%2C_Western_Australia&ei=WFzmULmXOY-ImQWM4YAY&usg=AFQjCNH6is6vqDxoALGaD8oK4TU02C46Xg&bvm=bv.1355534169,d.dGY
Cecil, Werner’s post at 5:56 says ‘there has been NO warming for 16 years. And on five data sets, there has been no 95% statistically significant warming for between 17 and 23 years.’ This contradicts your statement that ‘it’s warmer now’. It is loose statements like yours that are seized upon by AGW proponents, because once it is accepted that it is warmer now, they look for reasons for ‘why’ it is warmer. Without a list credible suspects, they can only point to the increase in CO2 produced by humans as the culprit, pointing out it is a greenhouse gas afterall. One thing follows on from another and they will demand politicians do something about reducing these emissions to avert further warming.
I’m not seeing in NOAA’s scientific reports anything that supports the claim above that 1998 was the warmest year since 1978. “1979 through 2012Warmest to coolest” data chart.
NOAA data contradicts that assertion:
2010 Global Climate Highlights:
Combined global land and ocean annual surface temperatures for 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest such period on record at 1.12 F (0.62 C) above the 20th century average. The range of confidence (to the 95 percent level) associated with the combined surface temperature is +/- 0.13 F (+/- 0.07 C).*
–http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110112_globalstats.html
Above the chart, the article refers to “Eleven of the 12 warmest years in the satellite temperature record.” Does this factor in both land and ocean temps as does the NOAA data?
Am I misreading this data? Perhaps it was poorly presented? It appears at first glance to be false. Funny that no one else, including supposed scientists posting, have caught this apparent error.
Cecil, I should also,point out how Werner is using a disciplined approach to describe warming. He is not calculating how far back he has to go to get a significant result to say if the planet is warming or not. Because if he were to do this it would be used by the AGW crowd for there own purposes. But rather he has stated the inverse, ie that there has been no significant warming for 17 to 23 years. This is a much safer statement that cannot be distorted to represent something it is not.
From the article: “Despite that string of warmer-than-normal years, there has been no measurable warming trend since about 1998.” Huh?? Looks like another urban legend and skeptic canard, presented as a scientific fact above. I expect the paper to be gutted by climate scientists…unless I’m missing subtle scientific points in it. (quite possible, I admit.)
This again goes against the preponderance of evidence as noted on SkepticalScience.com, busting the myth that “It hasn’t warmed since 1998.”
“No, it hasn’t been cooling since 1998. Even if we ignore long term trends and just look at the record-breakers, that wasn’t the hottest year ever. Different reports show that, overall, 2005 was hotter than 1998. What’s more, globally, the hottest 12-month period ever recorded was from June 2009 to May 2010.
“Though humans love record-breakers, they don’t, on their own, tell us a much about trends — and it’s trends that matter when monitoring Climate Change. Trends only appear by looking at all the data, globally, and taking into account other variables — like the effects of the El Nino ocean current or sunspot activity — not by cherry-picking single points.
“There’s also a tendency for some people just to concentrate on air temperatures when there are other, more useful, indicators that can perhaps give us a better idea how rapidly the world is warming. Oceans for instance — due to their immense size and heat storing capability (called ‘thermal mass’) — tend to give a much more ‘steady’ indication of the warming that is happening. Here records show that the Earth has been warming at a steady rate before and since 1998 and there’s no signs of it slowing any time soon.”
–http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-stopped-in-1998.htm
pkatt says:
January 3, 2013 at 8:29 pm
9/34 … not a very impressive trend is it.
—-
A not very impressive trend of misunderstanding trends, isn’t it? Comparing one year in 34 is not a valid analysis of a trend.
Putting 34 years together, averaging them, then seeing how each year fits in the context of all the years, and plotting the data points to form a trend line, is what’s key to analyze. The trend is…higher temps from 1978 to 2012. A
And it’s not clear if the paper above is using combined land and water temps. Note my post referencing SkepticalScience,com on “What has global warming done since 1998?”, pointing to the inherently “more ‘steady’ indication of the warming” in ocean temps.
Is the paper above cherry-picking data? Or are readers cherry-picking its data?
Eucla max recorded temp….. 47.9 °C (118.2 °F) on 3 January 1979 ie. right at the beginning of the warming scare.. NOTHING since.
forecast http://www.eldersweather.com.au/wa/eucla/eucla 39C on monday.
“So, the US doesn’t count? Really?”
No, not significantly. And if they are refering to Hansenised land temps.. forget it !!
This post is for Dr. Spencer and John Cristy, and Phillip Gentry. I am completely confused. I reread the article slowly several times–I am concluding I must be stupid.
“Globally, 2012 was ninth warmest of the past 34 years”–Ok, I wasn’t everywhere on the planet and maybe it was the warmest globally in 34 years. But this “2012 sets a new record high temperature Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.14 C per decade December temperatures (preliminary)” and “… it was the warmest year on record for both the contiguous 48 U.S. states and for the continental U.S., including Alaska.”
I DO NOT BELIEVE THIS. What planet is everyone living on???? Look at the Headlines (below) for the last two weeks of Dec. (complimets of iceagenow.info) and where is the warmest anything? And look at Alaska–cooling by 2.4 degress and we read this on this post, “Northern Hemisphere: +0.14 C (about 0.25 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for December.”
This is nuts or I’m living in an alternate universe. And slipped in here through a rip in the fabric of ‘space weather’ or something. In the universe I come from, this December was really really cold, breaking records all over the globe. On the other hand, I could , as already referenced, be stupid.
Record snow in December in Dayton OH
http://blogs.wdtn.com/2012/12/29/record-snowfall-today-helped-us-surpass-last-year-total/
Alaska cooling: In the first decade since 2000, the 49th state cooled 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit. According to Wendler et al, the cooling is widespread — holding true for 19 of the 20 National Weather Service stations sprinkled from one corner of Alaska to the other.
http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/forget-global-warming-alaska-headed-ice-age
Russia – Coldest winter in decades. Snow is as much as 5 meters (16½ ft) deep – Plows and machines cannot reach roads to clear them –
http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2012/12/28/2012122800375.html
Widespread cold in Mongolia. The EIC reports, “In December, the weather will be colder than average in Mongolia, and snowfalls and blizzards will also be at a greater magnitude than average
http://ubpost.mongolnews.mn/?p=2211
“Cold Weather Across Europe, Asia Kills Hundreds. Cold weather in the past few days has sadly gone from severe to deadly
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/12/27/europeans-freezing-by-the-hundreds-as-workers-lose-their-jobs-in-mindless-government-attempt-to-make-the-weather-colder/
North India “cold snap” kills 25
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-20842932
Uzbekistan low on food because of snow and temperature has fallen to -10 Degree Centigrade in upper areas.
http://dunyanews.tv/index.php/en/Pakistan/39183-Heavy-snowfall-halts-life-in-Gazar
Nepal – Cold wave kills 17 in 10 days
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/752403.shtml
Freezing Japan. Numerous Japanese cities set record low temps as freezing temperature persist
http://japandailypress.com/numerous-japanese-cities-reach-record-lows-as-freezing-temperature-persist-2620432
Russia’s brutal winter claims 123 lives. Temperatures have been about 12 degrees Celsius lower than seasonal norms in Russia,
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/world/russias-brutal-winter-claims-123-lives/story-e6frfkui-1226543460539
Dozens die in Ukraine “cold snap” Temperatures as low as -23C (-9F) and heavy snowfall this month
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20809898
Dozens die in Poland “cold snap” The Interior Ministry said the death toll from sub-freezing temperatures that set in in December was 49 people so far
http://www.breakingnews.ie/world/dozens-die-in-poland-cold-snap-578660.html
Coldest December on record prompts state of emergency in Altai. Extreme cold prompts regionwide state of emergency
http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_12_20/Extreme-cold-prompts-state-of-emergency-in-Altai/
Extreme cold extends into Thailand. Nearly 19,900 households in 169 villages have been declared cold-stricken disaster areas.
http://www.oananews.org/content/news/general/cold-snap-hits-thai-north-0
Kazakhstan Freezes – Far colder than normal
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/20771143
Russians freeze to death – Strongest winter in decades
http://rt.com/news/russia-freeze-cold-temperature-379/
19 dead in 24 hours in Ukraine freeze. Temperatures fell to minus 16C in the centre and south of the country and to minus 23C in eastern Lugansk region.
OK–Now that was only for the last two weeks of December–I could have gone on, but you can see, something is not right.
AndyG55 says: Are we over the peak already?
I am not sure we will ever know because I am having such a hard time understanding how so much cold still causes the warmest December.
Policy Guy says: If you have confidence in the temp data…
Pamela Gray says:
January 3, 2013 at 6:46 pm
9th warmest? And what would that be in terms of coolest? We seem to be getting to the point where these nonsensical pronouncements will begin to sound ludicrous to even liberals!!!!!!! Next year we could be facing the 12th warmest year! Only Obama would get all twitter pated over that one.
—–
Okay…9th warmest out of 34, vs. 25th coolest?? In trend that clearly reveals warming over 34 years?
It seems valid to phrase things in terms of warmest compared to temps in the past that are *generally* cooler, according to the trends of rising temps. To switch back and forth–going from “Xth coolest year since [year N]” to “Xth warmest year since [year N]”–would introduce unnecessary confusion in wording. Consistency creates clarity.
Now if the trends showed long-term cooling, then “Xth coolest year since [pick a year]” would make sense. If used consistently. It looks like skeptics are actually objecting, via their objections to this wording, to the reality that the Earth is warming and has been on steady course doing so since temps have been measured around the 1880s.
Okay, object to “Xth warmest” language all you want. It’s futile. The science contradicts your objections.
“Reality has a well-known liberal bias.” –Stephen Colbert
Watcher says:
January 3, 2013 at 9:15 pm
“No, it hasn’t been cooling since 1998. Even if we ignore long term trends and just look at the record-breakers, that wasn’t the hottest year ever.
My post at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/03/uah-global-temperature-report-2012-was-9th-warmest/#comment-1188803
Indicates 4 data sets that do have 1998 as the warmest year and 2 that do not.
The satellites measure the air both above the land and the ocean.
Oceans for instance — due to their immense size and heat storing capability (called ‘thermal mass’) — tend to give a much more ‘steady’ indication of the warming that is happening.
Again, from my post above:
Sea surface temperatures have a flat slope since March 1997 or 15 years, 8 months (goes to October)
Watcher, this blog provides a valuable resource to look at evidence differently and come to different conclusions to the traditional scientific methods. Cherry picking, as you call it, is a legitimate way of breaking the data down into manageable chucks and achieve different conclusions had you looked at all the data as a whole. So it is important to present the science correctly. That is why the language that is used and the way statements are framed are so people’s natural biases are catered for. I for one wished this topic had not been covered by WUWT as it allows issues that are hard to argue against to be covered. Some posters have argued that it should be but i beleive that should be the job of the other sites like skeptical science.com.