In the Washington Examiner today, there is this: Op-Ed: EPA’s carbon regs not based on sound science.
It is published by Joe D’Aleo on behalf of a number of people. A longer more complete version of the essay is below, which could not be published for space reasons. Also included is a list of the 13 signers who drafted it. Please consider widely republishing this essay. – Anthony
EPA’s CO2 Regulations are NOT Based on Sound Science
The Supreme Court, in Mass v. EPA, stated that the EPA must treat CO2 and other Greenhouse Gases (GHGs), as “pollutants” and then carryout an analysis to determine whether the increasing concentrations in atmospheric CO2 may reasonably be anticipated to endanger human health and welfare. The Court did not mandate regulation; rather it mandated that EPA go through an Endangerment Finding process.
EPA did so and on December 15, 2009 issued its ruling that CO2 and other GHGs must be regulated. This EPA finding and associated rulings were immediately challenged in the DC Circuit Court. The DC Circuit ruled in favor of EPA, but given the two dissents from the December 20, 2012 decision denying rehearing en banc, the matter will very likely go to the Supreme Court.
If allowed to stand, the very existence of EPA’s Endangerment Finding requires regulation that significantly increases U.S. fossil fuel and electricity prices–negatively impacting job creation as well as energy, economic and national security.
To many scientists this situation seems incredible given the ample evidence that EPA’s finding is grossly flawed. In its finding, EPA claimed with 90-99% certainty that observed warming in the latter half of the twentieth century resulted from human activity. EPA bases its finding upon Three Lines of Evidence (LoE.)
Using the most credible empirical data available, it is relatively straightforward to soundly reject each of EPA’s Three LoE.
1.) EPA claims that the Global Average Surface Temperature (GAST) has been rising in a dangerous fashion over the last fifty years, in large part due to human- caused increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. But “Global Warming” has not been global and has not set records in the regions where warming has occurred. For example, over this time period, while the Arctic has warmed, the Tropical oceans had a flat trend, and the Antarctic was slightly cooling. The most significant warming during this period occurred in the Northern Hemisphere, north of the Tropics. But, as the figure shows, over the last 130 years, the decade of the 1930’s still has the most U.S. State High Temperatures records. And, over the past 50 years, there were more new State Record Lows set than Record Highs. In fact, roughly 70% of the current State Record Highs were set prior to 1940.
2.) EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Fingerprint Theory is that in the Tropics, the upper troposphere is warming faster than the lower troposphere, and the lower troposphere is warming faster than the surface, all due to rising CO2 concentrations. This is totally at odds with multiple robust, consistent, independently-derived empirical datasets, all showing no statistically significant positive (or negative) trend in temperature and thus, no difference in trend by altitude. Therefore, EPA’s theory as to how CO2 impacts GAST must be rejected.
3.) EPA relied upon Climate Models, all predicated on this Fingerprint Theory, that all fail standard model validation and forecast reliability tests. The models all forecast rising temperatures beyond 2000 although GAST has actually been flat. This is not surprising because EPA never carried out any published forecast reliability tests.
Bottom –Line: No scientist or team of scientists has come up with an empirically validated theory proving that higher Atmospheric CO2 Levels will lead to higher GAST–not EPA’s team and certainly not to the EPA’s 90-99% certainty. Moreover, if the causal link between higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations and higher GAST is broken by invalidating EPA’s Three LoE, then EPA’s claim that higher CO2 concentrations also cause sea level increases and more frequent and severe storms, floods and droughts is also disproved. Such causality claims require a validated theory that higher CO2 concentrations cause increases in GAST. Lacking such a validated theory, EPA’s entire house of cards collapses.
More generally, EPA violated both the scientific method and the Scientific Advisory Board statute intended to enforce the scientific method when it made its highly influential scientific assessment in the Endangerment Finding.
EPA’s own Inspector General stated as follows:
“EPA did not conduct a peer review of the TSD [Technical Support Document] that met all recommended steps in the Peer Review Handbook for peer reviews of influential scientific information or highly influential scientific assessments. {—} The handbook provides examples of ‘independent experts from outside EPA,’ that include NAS, an established Federal Advisory Committee Act mechanism (e.g., Science Advisory Board), and an ad hoc panel of independent experts outside the Agency.”
EPA’s outsourcing of the science to international organizations beyond the reach of U.S. laws has also been challenged. Moreover, the ClimateGate saga is testimony to the dedication of some to subvert the science for their own agenda. And, a Hockey Stick is now famous as a symbol of temperature data manipulated to generate public alarm.
In summary, it is not incorrect to argue that further study of the role GHGs play in climate is in order. However, with what is known now, it certainly seems that a new Endangerment Finding analysis is required, using, for example, the far more rigorous Science Advisory Board process suggested by EPA’s Inspector General. A Remand of EPA’s Endangerment Finding by the U.S. Supreme Court would be appropriate.
Opinion Piece Signer List (alphabetically)
Dr. Timothy Ball
Climatologist & Environmental Consultant
Ph.D. (Faculty of Science), University of London, England
Joseph S. D’Aleo
Chief Meteorologist
WeatherBell Analytics
Dr. Donald Easterbrook (Emeritus)
Professor of Geology
Western Washington University
Dr. Gordon J. Fulks
Astrophysicist
La Center, WA
Dr. Laurence I. Gould
Professor of Physics
University of Hartford
Dr. William M. Gray (Emeritus)
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
Dr. Anthony R. Lupo
Professor of Soil, Environmental, and Atmospheric Sciences
University of Missouri
Dr. Thomas P. Sheahen
Western Technology Inc.
Deer Park Maryland
Dr. S. Fred Singer (Emeritus)
Professor of Environmental Sciences
University of Virginia
George H. Taylor,
Certified Consultant Meteorologist
President, Applied Climate Services
Dr. James P. Wallace III
President, & CEO, Jim Wallace & Associates LLC
Ph.D., Economics, Minor in Engineering, Brown University
M.S., Mechanical Engineering, Brown University
B.S., Aeronautical Engineering, Brown University
Anthony Watts
Former TV Meteorologist and founder of
SurfaceStations.org, Intelliweather, WattsUpWithThat
Good letter. To the point.
I hope to see the EPA as we know it under Lisa Jackson go down.
There is a place for an EPA, but not as it is now.
Follow the Money says:
December 28, 2012 at 1:57 pm
“That said, I think the coal lobby, the most CO2 heavy energy producers, can’t complain much”
It is my greatest wish that the coal producers (and /or the coal using producers of electricity) would get together and immediately stop shipping/burning coal. This combined with a publicity campaign explaining exactly why they are doing so, would stop the EPA regulation and the green lobbying stone dead.
I am not certain, but it is my understanding that in most jurisdictions a contract that requires an illegal or immoral act is either unenforceable or null and void. Could you imagine the outcry if a government required any company to continue on a path that will, according to the government, lead to the destruction of the world. The destruction of the world is surely, at least, immoral.
@John F. Hultquist John, thanks for the comment. Regarding your first point I’m aware of that. before i retired I was routinely called upon to work in confined spaces, particularly those which would have an hazardous atmosphere. mainly though it would be the double bottoms of ocean going vessels, the wing tanks for ballast, fresh water tanks and yes, even tanks used for human waste treatment. Most often it would be fuel oil tanks. I have a very humorous story about myself, a new worker and an old colleague cramped in fuel bays in the bowels of a large ship, sitting in a few inches of diesel fuel and sludge. The old guy said we should take a break and offered his cigarettes which i happily took and lit. Watching the new guy beat himself almost senseless in a mad dash to escape was comical. I was young and you had to be there.
In our line of work CO2 was an especial danger given that it’s the main fire retardant on most ships and is carried in huge bottles in great quantities. I’m aware of the dangers. I was merely addressing the point about the submarines and as usual got carried away thinking to poke at those who claim that co2 is toxic and or a pollutant as neiter is true despite it’s dangers in confined spaces.
Regarding the second part that is indeed the issue and until i see empirical evidence that co2 is a main driver of temperature and what’s more, the 3-5% of the 0.004% of atmosphere that is co2 is significantly contributing to any actual effect on temperature then I’ll continue to remain sceptical. And even then I.ll take some convincing that given the IR absorption properties of CO2 being what they are that any additional co2 can have much more effect than it already may have.
But yes, I understand the issue, I just wanted to address the toxicity and pollutant part of this story.
Reblogged this on contrary2belief and commented:
US EPA challenged to re-examine the basis for its decision on declaring CO2 “dangerous” and needing to be regulated.
As a former submarine operator and construciton engineer, let me correct the impression that may have been created by the “fatal” (or harmful) label being associated with the very high levels inside submarines at sea. (Normal submarine CO2 levels are not often at the very high levels mentioned, but these do happen.
The “harmful” level being claimed BY the EPA under their politically-guided US Supreme Court opinion is STRICTLY “caused’ by the long-term “hazard” claimed BY the EPA because of melting ice caps (polar bear harm), rising sea levels (over several hundreds of years), and all of the “assumed” hundreds of problems being claimed BY the CACA extremists in the political and academic CACA-paid environments.
That is, the Supreme Court IS politically biased and politically (not-scientifically or rationally) based. The liberals can explicitly “count on” a reliable 5 liberal judges to vote whatever way their liberal supervisors demand. The equally liberal and biased mainstream media of ABBCNNBCBS will ignore such bias and lies, but then again, the US Supreme Court also legalized slavery, and the forced return of freed slaves into their slavery.
Second, notice that there is NO evidence called up at all in the EPA’s “case” – all is “supposed” and “induced” from their claims about ASSUMED future harms. Claims is all that were provided – but again, remember that the USSC ONLY used the biased political votes of their liberal groups. Legal, moral or ethical rational judgement has nothing to do with either the decision or the results. All is a deliberate political process. All abated and supported BY the supposed “free” press to suppress independent thought and push the CACA agenda of destroying the economies of the free states.
Now, political assumptions and processes aside, notice that submarine engine rooms DO have large pieces of steel and piping at high temperatures in a high CO2 level environment within a relatively large enclosed environment.
If ANYONE were interested in actually measuring CO2 radiation absorption and OC2 temperature radiation effects, measuring the visual, infrared, and thermal rates 9with and without convection and conduction!) within the lengthy engine rooms of submarines may find a fruitful research environment.
That is, you can source radiating surfaces of virtually any emissivity, at all temperatures from 34 degrees F to 400 degrees F, in CO2 levels that can be monitored and changed from 100 ppm up to the aforementioned 8000 ppm.
Security problems? Let the submarine crew run the instruments back in the engine room – all the scientific crew needs to do is go onboard and look at the results.
Do people have any idea how much CO2 they ingest when they drink a carbonated beverage? Or absorb when they have abdominal surgery and are inflated with CO2? I think perhaps there is a PR opportunity that is being missed. Most people have been scared to death by MSM stories, and don’t realize that they live with sometimes inflated levels of both ingested and atmospheric CO2 and don’t have any adverse effects. If we can’t breathe a “poison”, will we be allowed to drink it? How can the EPA work out that little detail?
Since there is nothing physically meaningful about a “Global Average Surface Temperature”, the rest of the points are moot.
Gents,
You are wasting your time! This is not (and never has been) about science or facts, CO2 is just a means to an end: socialist political power, so there is no point in correcting ‘them’ as ‘them’ is not listening. They need to create artificial shortages and rationing of energy to control people. Support ‘them’ and you will have heating and cooling, but if you do not support them then the pied piper, Richard and his men will come for you …
@Anthony: I think it’s quite noble to get involved this way –I commend you and hope it gets you good media exposure as well! I believe judges try to come up with what is a fair decision based on truth as it is applied to the law. You kept the argument such that it’s based on due process of the law – and helped take away some of the fuzzy logic that politicians do when they talk about global warming. (Look ice is melting and that’s proof of global warming…. and …and we all know what’s causing it …and we know how to stop it…) You steered away from getting into an ideological debate, and instead provided a reasonably defensible position which can be validate with sources.
The judges themselves may have actually BELIEVED and perhaps still do believe that CO2 is causing global warming. But I bet they do not understand the science behind it and should be willing to hear the defensible facts as you and the team present them.
Kudos!!
OK, I’ve put up a copy of the article.
Now lets all pray for 2 or 3 years of dramatically cold and snowy weather over the Northern Hemisphere with emphasis on the Bos-Wash corridor…
(Maybe we can get AlGore an office in D.C…. Near the Justice Department or Supreme Court offices 😉
I’ve got a feeling it’s going to happen, because it would be such a perfect cosmic custard pie.
The CAA says:
“any person may petition the Administrator to modify the list of hazardous air pollutants under this subsection by adding or deleting a substance. [ yada snip yada ]
The Administrator shall delete a substance from the list upon a showing by the petitioner or on the Administrator’s own determination that there is adequate data on the health and environmental effects of the substance to determine that emissions, ambient concentrations, bioaccumulation or deposition of the substance may not reasonably be antici- pated to cause any adverse effects to the human health or adverse environmental effects.”
If CO2 ever does get on the list, we’ll just have to keep flooding the EPA with deletion petitions.
E.M.Smith says:
“Maybe we can get AlGore an office in D.C”
Let’s book him a 3 year around and around the world tour.
On second thought no, The Gore Effect is too powerful, it might plunge us into a glacial period.
The problem is the Law of Bureaucracies obviously applies to the EPA.
The EPA started out life as a scientifically credible organisation, which did much to improve air quality in the USA.
But it was a bureaucracy and the first rule of bureaucracies is that they grow.
The second rule of bureaucracies is that when they have outlived their usefulness, they do not disband, but instead look for reasons to perpetuate their existence.
The third rule of bureaucracies is as they get older they become increasingly dangerous to the public good, as they become increasingly prone to take actions (or inactions) which stifle and/or damage economic prosperity.
In the private sector, the Augean Stable is routinely cleaned out; in the government sector the poo is allowed to grow and grow.
In other words, there is an awful lot of poo in the EPA and if you dismissed 80% of its employees concentrating on the career bureaucrats at the top, it is doubtful anyone would notice the effect, other than a sharp decline in the spewing out of stupid, poorly considered rules and regulations.
Even if this ends up going to the supreme court the chances of overturning the EPAs decision is minute. The SCOTUS will defer to the scientific government bodies as SCOTUS has no scientific credentials. The government’s scientific collective (NASA GISS, NOAA, NAS) will support the EPA finding. The only way I can see to get this repealed is to change the face in the white house or change the consensus scientific opinion. The latter will be hard because if the temperatures drop there will be much backslapping and congratulations from the consensus players as they will claim to have saved the world once again, this time by regulating carbon.
At this point I think the only way the CAGW crowd is going to save face is by getting regulations put into place in the US and then spin the temperature results either way they fall. We have already seen it happening with the IPCC, Hansen, and model projections. If the temps return to an increasing trend it will be “it could have been worse” and if they fall it will be “see we told you so”. Just look at the CFC ban or the spotted owl / logging ban. The spotted owl continues to decline in numbers, ozone holes continue to happen…spin spin spin.
posted on CorvetteForum PR&C. 😀
How many public swimming pools are there in the USA? I ask because CO2 is probably used in a large number of them for water treatment . Here is a link. http://www.alisonosinski.com/?p=330
The EPA personnel and the DC Circuit Court must be out of their tiny minds. CO2 is an asphyxiant gas and not classified as toxic or harmful in accordance with Globally Harmonized System of Classification and Labelling of Chemicals standards of United Nations Economic Commission for Europe by using the OECD Guidelines for the Testing of Chemicals. In concentrations up to 1% (10,000 ppm) will make some people feel drowsy.[78] Concentrations of 7% to 10% may cause suffocation, manifesting as dizziness, headache, visual and hearing dysfunction, and unconsciousness within a few minutes to an hour.[
In other words, CO2 is a valuable resource, not a pollutant and all of mankind would be greatly disadvantaged if the dolts at the EPA get their own way in this matter.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide#Uses
I have three Lines of Evidence that fats, proteins and carbohydrates are required in the human diet. Therefore all fats, proteins and carbohydrates should be taxed heavily and made more expensive to produce. In fact there is a fourth Line of Evidence that says vitamins are also necessary.
sorry it took me few days, but its done 🙂
http://www.theconservativevoices.com/news/cat/political/an-open-letter-challenging-the-epa-on-co2-regul-r67
please let me know if any edits needed.
To me this is the real killer:
The biggest green house gas. Is water is the EPA going to start regulating WATER VAPOR??? At 4% vs 400 ppm water vapor is the big target so why is the EPA not ‘regulating’ water? Is the US government going to now start rationing and taxing water?
Lots of fun to be had with this one.
temp says:
December 28, 2012 at 3:59 pm
……I really think this is an important angle. If anyone who is in the navy knows some sub ppl or retired sub ppl being better. They should see if they can hooked up with CPI or some of the other groups and sue the VA and US government for endangering they’re lives while on subs. The government is always quick to throw regulations out that will cost them huge sums of money. The government would either be forced to pay them disability or throw out the EPA finding as non-science…..
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Great Idea, however it will only work if the money is available for full page ads in the news and ads are placed on the left leaning broadcasters on TV.
Remember the Climategate e-mails are unknown to the general public.
What makes you think “empirical data” has any connection or impact on governments? A completely bizarre notion. You are not Goldman Sachs, therefore your actions and thoughts do not exist.
Richard of NZ says:
December 28, 2012 at 4:35 pm
….It is my greatest wish that the coal producers (and /or the coal using producers of electricity) would get together and immediately stop shipping/burning coal. This combined with a publicity campaign explaining exactly why they are doing so, would stop the EPA regulation and the green lobbying stone dead.
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They are pretty much doing that. What we need to do is get the following information out to the general public in the USA:
While the electric rates increase the homeowner will be rewarded by carefully orchestrated rolling blackouts facilitated by their Smart Meters so Corporations can continue to receive uninterrupted power.
If you really want to get nasty you can twist the knife even further:
Include the REAL unemployment stats graph from Shadow Statistics (23%) and the reason why.
The impact of the WTO/China on US wages
Then you can throw in the US hunger statistics: for 1 in 6 people in the United States, hunger is a reality.
In 2011, 14.9 percent of households (17.9 million households) were food insecure… households with children (20.6 percent), especially households with children headed by single women (36.8 percent)
Hunger Study 2010
The US Congress seems to be planning Full Steam ahead towards economic collapse, and ALL of the moves that brought the USA to collapse can be laid at the door of 545 PEOPLE I think it is time we make everyone aware of that.
Roger Knights says:
December 29, 2012 at 12:21 am
E.M.Smith says:
December 29, 2012 at 12:15 am
Now let’s all pray for 2 or 3 years of dramatically cold and snowy weather over the Northern Hemisphere with emphasis on the Bos-Wash corridor…
I’ve got a feeling it’s going to happen, because it would be such a perfect cosmic custard pie.
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MAMA GAIA has already illustrated she has a very nasty sense of humor.
Peter Miller says:
December 29, 2012 at 1:31 am
The problem is the Law of Bureaucracies obviously applies to the EPA…..
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Amen.
When I was young I had a retired government bureaucrat, a chemist, for a boss. I do not think I have ever met a stupider, more useless, more political or vicious individual in my life. I got him fired within a couple of months because he was too stupid to outwit a very naive 23 year old. (I was the one to be fired as scapegoat in an in-house power play between the VPs of production and marketing.)