From: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ar5/statement/Statement_WGI_AR5_SOD.pdf
2012/15/ST
IPCC STATEMENT
14 December 2012
Unauthorized posting of the draft of the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report
GENEVA, 14 December – The Second Order Draft of the Working Group I contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (WGI AR5) has been made available online. The IPCC regrets this unauthorized posting which interferes with the process of assessment and review. We will continue not to comment on the contents of draft reports, as they are works in progress.
The Expert and Government Review of the WGI AR5 was held for an 8-week period ending on 30 November 2012. A total of 31,422 comments was submitted by 800 experts and 26 governments on the Second Order Draft of the Chapters and the First Order Draft of the Summary for Policymakers and Technical Summary. The author teams together with the Review Editors are now considering these comments and will meet at the Working Group I Fourth Lead Author Meeting on 13-19 January 2013 in Hobart, Tasmania, to respond to all the comments received during the Expert and Government Review.
The IPCC is committed to an open and transparent process that delivers a robust assessment. That is why IPCC reports go through multiple rounds of review and the Working Groups encourage reviews from as broad a range of experts as possible, based on a self-declaration of expertise. All comments submitted in the review period are considered by the authors in preparing the next draft and a response is made to every comment. After a report is finalized, all drafts submitted for formal review, the review comments, and the responses by authors to the comments are made available on the IPCC and Working Group websites along with the final report. These procedures were decided by the IPCC’s member governments.
The unauthorized and premature posting of the drafts of the WGI AR5, which are works in progress, may lead to confusion because the text will necessarily change in some respects once all the review comments have been addressed. It should also be noted that the cut-off date for peer-reviewed published literature to be included and assessed in the final draft lies in the future (15 March 2013). The text that has been posted is thus not the final report.
This is why the IPCC drafts are not made public before the final document is approved. These drafts were provided in confidence to reviewers and are not for distribution. It is regrettable that one out of many hundreds of reviewers broke the terms of the review and posted the drafts of the WGI AR5. Each page of the draft makes it clear that drafts are not to be cited, quoted or distributed and we would ask for this to continue to be respected.
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Note for editors:
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“Note for editors:
The IPCC provides governments with a clear view of the current state of knowledge about the science of climate change, its potential impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation, through regular assessments of the most recent information published in scientific, technical and socio-economic literature worldwide. IPCC assessments are policy-relevant, but not policy-prescriptive.”
This is in direct conflict with their mandate which states:
“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) in 1988 to assess scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information that is relevant in understanding human-induced climate change, its potential impacts, and options for mitigation and adaptation.”
Their mandate ASSUMES “human-induced climate change” so it is hardly likely that they are actually interested in “a clear view of the current state of knowledge about the science of climate change …”
Nothing further need be said.
Hard to follow Willis’s comment as almost anything I’d state is less efficiently stated and perhaps similar in intent.
Oh what the _ell-hay, imitation is the sincerest form of a compliment, right?
Must be, because you have completely mis-understood and likely mis-interpreted.
Let’s see, you believe the IPCC chosen, can edit their final copy in private. Submit their final version and allow it to be published, before contributing authors can see the final copy? Which basically has been the process. A process that has allowed editors responsible for final chapters to completely change the contributing author’s language to something ‘acceptable’ to the big green elephants trumpeting disaster and other unproven science.
We believe, (at least I believe) that transparent should be transparent. Especially science sent to that unholy parasitic maelstrom called the IPCC. All drafts should be published, in full on the IPCC site along with the entire commentary process. Science must be legitimately vetted with the final draft representing honest science that survives criticism, not because so-and-so over-ruled submissions they didn’t like. Allow individual author’s to choose whether their contributions are identified as theirs. Of course, at some point every statement of cetainty, science, code, prediction, certification, etc. should be identified as to the author. Joint effort doesn’t mean anonymous nor anonymosity as that is neither science or honest.
Speaking of “…honest science that survives criticism…”. It just might be that there will not be an IPCC if this is followed. Scientists can return to real science and $80 billion plus can be used for real science; science that has all code, data and assumptions publlished; and is independently replicable by anyone willing to invest the time, cost and effort.
Over the last decade, I’ve lost the whole concept of what peer review process was supposed to accomplish; that is, ever since pal review, pay walls, and very accomodating cooperative editors poisoned the supposed peer review method. Transparency seriously impairs illegitimate ‘pal processes’, including those of the IPCC pals.
I find fault with Atheok’s caveat/implication that “80 billion dollars plus” has been devoted to pseudo-scientific pursuits by governments/movements…… worldwide, it’s in the neighborhood of approximately 300 billion dollars…. and I recieved not a penny of their redistribution of your tax dollar “investment” for which you have never voted.
Nice try IPCC, but the reason these reports are leaked is to get rid of the bullshit doctoring of the text on each round of review. If you guys were really transparent and accountable, people wouldn’t need to do this, but in any event, there is no harm done is making each step of the process more widely known.
LazyTeenager:
Your post at December 14, 2012 at 5:16 pm says in total
“Quite likely”? You say “quite likely”?!!!
You don’t know. You are guessing. You are making stuff up.
The fact is that In 2008 the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stated in its State of the Climate Report for 2008 (page 23)
The models don’t “rule out” something which “individual model runs” “have shown”. So, the modellers say that in reality what you claim is “quite likely” HAS NOT HAPPENED.
Your post demonstrates the desperation of warmunists when exposed to the cold light of reality.
Richard
The IPCC has a somewhat ambivalent communications strategy-
http://www.ipcc.ch/meetings/session33/ipcc_p33_decisions_taken_comm_strategy.pdf
“The following set of principles should guide the IPCC approach:
Objective and transparent. The Panel’s communications approach and activities should, at all times, be consistent with the IPCC overarching principles of objectivity, openness and transparency.
Timely and audience-appropriate. In order to be effective, the IPCC communications approach and activities should be aimed at ensuring that timely and appropriate information enters the public domain – both proactively to communicate reports, and reactively in response to questions or criticism.
Broader audiences, such as the UN, IPCC observer organizations, the scientific community, the education sector, Non Governmental Organizations (NGOs), the business sector and the wider public, also have an interest in the work and assessments of the IPCC. While these are not primary audiences of the IPCC communications efforts, the IPCC should look for ways to ensure that information is available and accessible for these audiences.
The IPCC encourages the science community, including those involved in producing its reports, to engage with wide audiences on an ongoing basis.
http://www.ipcc.ch/meetings/session33/ipcc_p33_decisions_taken_comm_strategy.pdf
The IPCC also has a large number of Observer Organisations including Transparency International, WWF, Greenpeace and Women for Climate Justice.
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/observers-as-of-june-2012.pdf
“Representatives of observer organizations may attend sessions of the IPCC and the plenary sessions of the IPCC Working Groups. Observer organizations are also invited to encourage experts to participate in the expert review and government/expert review stage of IPCC reports.”
The IPCC cannot have it both ways. Either they are entirely transparent or they are a secretive and propaganda driven organisation. Transparency means only one thing, that all the activities of the IPCC and the way they compile their reports is available online to anyone, at all stages of the process. Anything else is secrecy which allows for gross errors, manipulation and deceit.
1) Which model showed cooling?
2) This is the problem. No matter it warms, cools, stays flat – one of the models will show it.
Alas my friend, your time is running out and has run out. We are currently at 16 years of statistically insignificant Warming – after adjustments. ;>)
Has everyone heard that ” Richard Windsor ” is a secret e-mail account held by Lisa Jackson, head of the EPA ? At least Congress thinks so and wants to know about it.
“The IPCC regrets this unauthorized posting which interferes with our process of making up lies and propaganda”
I regret that my tax dollars go to the corrupt UN and again I demand that our government withdraw all funding from the UN.
theduke says:
December 14, 2012 at 11:12 am
Garrett says: “The IPCC is not Wikipedia. Blogging is not science.”
The implication that what the IPCC is doing is “science” is laughable. Until they empirically prove that human activity is changing the climate in any meaningful way, it’s not science. It’s a false consensus based on correlation, dubious models and green propaganda.
____________________________________
It is not even a Consensus!!!
From Lucia’s Blackboard on AR4.
Also see open letter – Chris Landsea Leaves IPCC
This comment seems very appropriate with regards to the IPCC, Phil Jones, Mike Mann ….
What we are seeing in climate science is a return to Alchemy with the IPCC leading the way.
I can imagine that the final version of AR5 which we all await with bated breath, will certainly choose phrasing and tone at the summary levels that continues to encourage fear. But the draft’s Figure 1.4 (of observed global temperatures compared to prior IPCC projections) posted by Anthony and others is difficult to expunge, as is the IPCC’s tacit admission of evidence for solar forcing beyond total solar irradiance (TSI).
We have to keep at it. Eventually the tide of understanding will turn for the better. In my view, there has been some observable change in the public arena this calendar year, despite Doha with all its brouhaha. I suspect there are many good scientists out there, not involved in the IPCC juggernaut, who feel unable to protest because to do so is likely to constrain their careers, and certainly limit research funding for useful projects. Of those still involved in the IPCC process, I suspect there are many who are similarly fearful, while some are fools, and I wonder whether there are some at the top of the chain who may suspect that the main thesis of AGW has now proved to be fraudulent.
As for many of the educated lay people, I wonder how many have their views governed by their political persuasion, and/or their socio-psychological tendency to accept blame for all that happens in our world’s environment. I find many people confuse pollution with carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases; many have forgotten that carbon dioxide is a great plant food; most don’t realise how much of this useful gas is released in the decay of vegetable and animal matter. In fact, there is much ignorance out there among the educated, I believe. Politically, I’m generally in the middle; some of my left-of-centre very rational friends, won’t even look deeper into the issues.
I’ve been reading Lawrence Krauss’ “A Universe from Nothing” recently. When he writes of the finding by the High-Z Supernova Search Team that the universe is accelerating, he writes of the speed with which the scientific community accepted the new findings. “Almost overnight, there appeared to be universal acceptance of the results, even though, as Carl Sagan has emphasised, ‘Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence’.” This is a telling comment about the propensity of humans to reach agreement, including that group of well-educated scientists who should be trained in the business of doubt, probability, and possible certainty. I think this whole AGW saga reflects very badly on many segments in our community, particularly on those who ought to know better.
Climate change is a reality, not an axiom.
Also human activities affect this process like any of organic creatures existing does on specific levels, stopping a natural process of a planetary degradation by drumming up particular carbon-tax-obsessions is mere nonsense well-contributing the directly benefiting from such pseudo-relief only.
Pointing in a leaked IPCC paper at “the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide is highest in 800000 years” unwittingly testifies to a natural history factotum which is the changing settings of planetary magnetic poles, occurring at least every 800000 years as estimated and proven already scientifically.
More: “The X-Challenge: Realm of Senses” http://www.eduois.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2282%3AThe-X-Challenge%3A-Realm-of-Senses&catid=71&Itemid=33
Michael Kerjman
Michael Kerjman,
Not many here dispute that human activity has an effect on temperature. There is the Urban Heat Island [UHI] effect. The problem is that AGW is vastly overestimated. It is a puny 3rd order forcing, and it is so small that it is unmeasurable. There are no empirical measurements of AGW.
AGW can be completely disregarded for all practical purposes. It has very little effect. The catastrophic AGW scare is driven by huge amounts of public funding, not by scientific evidence.
DBoehm,
Thanks for sharing my understanding of a very political roots of this “saving the planet” fas driven merely with own clan interests on a usual expence of daily strugglers.
theduke says:
December 14, 2012 at 11:12 am
Garrett says: “The IPCC is not Wikipedia. Blogging is not science.”
The implication that what the IPCC is doing is “science” is laughable. Until they empirically prove that human activity is changing the climate in any meaningful way, it’s not science. It’s a false consensus based on correlation, dubious models and green propaganda.
IPCC is NOT a scientific body! It’s brief is to advise governments on actions necessary to combat global warming. The “global warming” bit is taken as read in the brief.
@ur momisugly Wayne Delbeke says:
Their mandate ASSUMES “human-induced climate change” so it is hardly likely that they are actually interested in “a clear view of the current state of knowledge about the science of climate change …”
The MANDATE discrepancy is so true, I cannot believe that one little fact is not brought up more often in any discussion about the IPCC…
That one quote should precede any comment pertaining to the veracity of IPCC “science”, for or against…
“open and transparent”; “not to be cited”.
Apparently they’re in possession of a cure for terminal Cognitive Dissonance! How else do they survive?