IPCC AR5 draft leaked, contains game-changing admission of enhanced solar forcing – as well as a lack of warming to match model projections, and reversal on 'extreme weather'

This post will remain at the top for a few days, new stories will appear below this one

UPDATE1: Andrew Revkin at the NYT weighs in, and semi endorses the leak, see update below – Anthony

UPDATE2: Alternate links have been sent to me, should go faster now.  – Anthony

UPDATE3: The main site is down but a large “all in one” RAR file (and bittorrent) has been created by a readers, see below. – Anthony

UPDATE4: 7:30AM PST 12/14/12 reactions are now coming in worldwide, see here, and the IPCC is going to issue a statement today. – Anthony

UPDATE5: 8:30AM PST 12/14/12 The IPCC has issued a statement on the leak, see below. -Anthony

UPDATE6: 12PM PST 12/14/12 The real bombshell of the report is now evident, a lack of warming to match model projections, see it here

UPDATE7: 12:30PM PST 12/14/12 Prof. Roger Pielke Jr. Analysis of UN IPCC Draft report : IPCC ‘shows almost complete reversal from AR4 on trends in drought, hurricanes, floods’

UPDATE8: 5PM PST 12/14/12 Another IPCC reviewer speaks out, this time about water vapor trends – actual data and IPCC contradict each other.

UPDATE9: 2PM PST 12/16/12 A rebuttal to Steven Sherwood and the solar forcing pundits of the IPCC AR5 draft leak

Full AR5 draft leaked here, contains game-changing admission of enhanced solar forcing

(Alec Rawls) I participated in “expert review” of the Second Order Draft of AR5 (the next IPCC report), Working Group 1 (“The Scientific Basis”), and am now making the full draft available to the public. I believe that the leaking of this draft is entirely legal, that the taxpayer funded report report is properly in the public domain under the Freedom of Information Act, and that making it available to the public is in any case protected by established legal and ethical standards, but web hosting companies are not in the business of making such determinations so interested readers are encouraged to please download copies of the report for further dissemination in case this content is removed as a possible terms-of-service violation. My reasons for leaking the report are explained below. Here are the chapters:

From http://www.stopgreensuicide.com/

(which is down now, see updated links below in update #2)

Summary for Policymakers

Chapter 1: Introduction

Chapter 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface

Chapter 3: Observations: Ocean

Chapter 4: Observations: Cryosphere

Chapter 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives

Chapter 6: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles

Chapter 7: Clouds and Aerosols

Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing

Chapter 8 Supplement

Chapter 9: Evaluation of Climate Models

Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional

Chapter 11: Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability

Chapter 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility

Chapter 13: Sea Level Change

Chapter 14: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change

Chapter 14 Supplement

Technical Summary

Why leak the draft report?

By Alec Rawls (email) [writing at http://www.stopgreensuicide.com/ ]

General principles

The ethics of leaking tax-payer funded documents requires weighing the “public’s right to know” against any harm to the public interest that may result. The press often leaks even in the face of extreme such harm, as when the New York Times published details of how the Bush administration was tracking terrorist financing with the help of the private sector Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), causing this very successful anti-terror program to immediately collapse.

That was a bad leak, doing great harm to expose something that nobody needed to know about. With the UN’s IPCC reports the calculus is reversed. UN “climate chief” Christina Figueres explains what is at stake for the public:

… we are inspiring government, private sector, and civil society to [make] the biggest transformation that they have ever undertaken. The Industrial Revolution was also a transformation, but it wasn’t a guided transformation from a centralized policy perspective. This is a centralized transformation that is taking place because governments have decided that they need to listen to science.

So may we please see this “science” on the basis of which our existing energy infrastructure is to be ripped out in favor of non-existent “green” energy? The only reason for secrecy in the first place is to enhance the UN’s political control over a scientific story line that is aimed explicitly at policy makers. Thus the drafts ought to fall within the reach of the Freedom of Information Act.

The Obama administration implicitly acknowledged this when it tried to evade FOIA by setting up private “backdoor channels” for communications with the IPCC. If NCAR’s Gerald Meehl (a lead author of AR5’s chapter on near-term climate change), has working copies of the draft report (and he’s only one of dozens of U.S. government researchers who would), then by law the draft report (now finished) should be available to the public.

The IPCC’s official reason for wanting secrecy (as they explained it to Steve McIntyre in  January 2012) is so that criticisms of the drafts are not spread out across the internet but get funneled through the UN’s comment process. If there is any merit to that rationale it is now moot. The comment period ended November 30th so the comment process can no longer be affected by publication.

As for my personal confidentiality agreement with the IPCC, I regard that as vitiated by the systematic dishonesty of the report (“omitted variable fraud” as I called it in my FOD comments). This is a general principle of journalistic confidentiality: bad faith on one side breaks the agreement on the other. They can’t ask reviewers to become complicit in their dishonesty by remaining silent about it.

Then there is the specific content of the Second Order Draft where the addition of one single sentence demands the release of the whole. That sentence is an astounding bit of honesty, a killing admission that completely undercuts the main premise and the main conclusion of the full report, revealing the fundamental dishonesty of the whole.

Lead story from the Second Order Draft: strong evidence for solar forcing beyond TSI now acknowledged by IPCC

Compared to the First Order Draft, the SOD now adds the following sentence, indicated in bold (page 7-43, lines 1-5, emphasis added):

Many empirical relationships have been reported between GCR or cosmogenic isotope archives and some aspects of the climate system (e.g., Bond et al., 2001; Dengel et al., 2009; Ram and Stolz, 1999). The forcing from changes in total solar irradiance alone does not seem to account for these observations, implying the existence of an amplifying mechanism such as the hypothesized GCR-cloud link. We focus here on observed relationships between GCR and aerosol and cloud properties.

The Chapter 7 authors are admitting strong evidence (“many empirical relationships”) for enhanced solar forcing (forcing beyond total solar irradiance, or TSI), even if they don’t know what the mechanism is. This directly undercuts the main premise of the report, as stated in Chapter 8 (page 8-4, lines 54-57):

There is very high confidence that natural forcing is a small fraction of the anthropogenic forcing. In particular, over the past three decades (since 1980), robust evidence from satellite observations of the TSI and volcanic aerosols demonstrate a near-zero (–0.04 W m–2) change in the natural forcing compared to the anthropogenic AF increase of ~1.0 ± 0.3 W m–2.

The Chapter 8 authors (a different group than the Chapter 7 authors) are explicit here that their claim about natural forcing being small compared to anthropogenic forcing is based on an analysis in which the only solar forcing that is taken into account is TSI. This can be verified from the radiative forcing table on page 8-39 where the only solar variable included in the IPCC’s computer models is seen to be “solar irradiance.”

This analysis, where post-1980 warming gets attributed to the human release of CO2 on the grounds that it cannot be attributed to solar irradiance, cannot stand in the face of the Chapter 7 admission of substantial evidence for solar forcing beyond solar irradiance. Once the evidence for enhanced solar forcing is taken into account we can have no confidence that natural forcing is small compared to anthropogenic forcing.

The Chapter 8 premise that natural forcing is relatively small leads directly to the main conclusion of the entire report, stated in the first sentence of the Executive Summary (the very first sentence of the entire report): that advances since AR4 “further strengthen the basis for human activities being the primary driver in climate change” (p.1-2, lines 3-5). This headline conclusion is a direct descendant of the assumption that the only solar forcing is TSI, a claim that their own report no longer accepts.

The report still barely hints at the mountain of evidence for enhanced solar forcing, or the magnitude of the evidenced effect. Dozens of studies (section two here) have found between a .4 and .7 degree of correlation between solar activity and various climate indices, suggesting that solar activity “explains” in the statistical sense something like half of all past temperature change, very little of which could be explained by the very slight variation in TSI. At least the Chapter 7 team is now being explicit about what this evidence means: that some mechanism of enhanced solar forcing must be at work.

My full submitted comments (which I will post later) elaborate several important points. For instance, note that the Chapter 8 premise (page 8-4, lines 54-57) assumes that it is the change in the level of forcing since 1980, not the level of forcing, that would be causing warming. Solar activity was at historically high levels at least through the end of solar cycle 22 (1996), yet the IPCC is assuming that because this high level of solar forcing was roughly constant from 1950 until it fell off during solar cycle 23 it could not have caused post-1980 warming. In effect they are claiming that you can’t heat a pot of water by turning the burner to maximum and leaving it there, that you have to keep turning the flame up to get continued warming, an un-scientific absurdity that I have been writing about for several years (most recently in my post about Isaac Held’s bogus 2-box model of ocean equilibration).

The admission of strong evidence for enhanced solar forcing changes everything. The climate alarmists can’t continue to claim that warming was almost entirely due to human activity over a period when solar warming effects, now acknowledged to be important, were at a maximum. The final draft of AR5 WG1 is not scheduled to be released for another year but the public needs to know now how the main premises and conclusions of the IPCC story line have been undercut by the IPCC itself.

President Obama is already pushing a carbon tax premised on the fear that CO2 is causing dangerous global warming. Last week his people were at the UN’s climate meeting in Doha pretending that Hurricane Sandy was caused by human increments to CO2 as UN insiders assured the public that the next IPCC report will “scare the wits out of everyone” with its ramped-up predictions of human-caused global warming to come, but this is not where the evidence points, not if climate change is in any substantial measure driven by the sun, which has now gone quiet and is exerting what influence it has in the cooling direction.

The acknowledgement of strong evidence for enhanced solar forcing should upend the IPCC’s entire agenda. The easiest way for the UN to handle this disruptive admission would be to remove it from their final draft, which is another reason to make the draft report public now. The devastating admission needs to be known so that the IPCC can’t quietly take it back.

Will some press organization please host the leaked report?

Most of us have to worry about staying within cautiously written and cautiously applied terms-of-service agreements. That’s why I created this new website. If it gets taken down nothing else gets taken with it. Media companies don’t have this problem. They have their own servers and publishing things like the draft IPCC report is supposed to be their bailiwick.

If the press has First Amendment protection for the publication of leaked materials even when substantial national security interests are at stake (the Supreme Court precedent set in the Pentagon Papers case), then it can certainly republish a leaked draft of a climate science report where there is no public interest in secrecy. The leaker could be at risk (the case against Pentagon leaker Daniel Ellsberg was thrown out for government misconduct, not because his activity was found to be protected) but the press is safe, and their services would be appreciated.

United States taxpayers have funded climate science to the tune of well over 80 billion dollars, all channeled through the funding bureaucracy established by Vice President Albert “the end is nigh” Gore when he served as President Clinton’s “climate czar.”  That Gore-built bureaucracy is still to this day striving to insure that not a penny of all those taxpayer billions ever goes to any researcher who is not committed to the premature conclusion that human contributions to atmospheric CO2 are causing dangerous global warming (despite the lack of any statistically significant warming for more than 15 years).

Acolytes of this bought “consensus” want to see what new propaganda their tax dollars have wrought and so do the skeptics. It’s unanimous, and an already twice-vetted draft is sitting now in thousands of government offices around the world. Time to fork it over to the people.

=============================================================

UPDATE1: Andrew Revkin writes in a story at the NYT Dot Earth today:

It’s important, before anyone attacks Rawls for posting the drafts (this is distinct from his views on their contents), to consider that panel report drafts at various stages of preparation have been leaked in the past by people with entirely different points of view.

That was the case in 2000, when I was leaked a final draft of the summary for policy makers of the second science report from the panel ahead of that year’s round of climate treaty negotiations. As I explained in the resulting news story, “A copy of the summary was obtained by The New York Times from someone who was eager to have the findings disseminated before the meetings in The Hague.”

Here’s a question I sent tonight to a variety of analysts of the panel’s workings over the years:

The leaker, Alec Rawls, clearly has a spin. But I’ve long thought that I.P.C.C. was in a weird losing game in trying to boost credibility through more semi-open review while trying to maintain confidentiality at same time. I’m sympathetic to the idea of having more of the I.P.C.C. process being fully open (a layered Public Library of Science-style approach to review can preserve the sanity of authors) in this age of enforced transparency (WikiLeaks being the most famous example).

I’ll post answers as they come in.

Full story at DotEarth

==============================================================

UPDATE2: Alternative links for AR5 WG1 SOD. At each page click on the button that says “create download link,” then “click here to download”:

Summary for Policymakers

http://www.peejeshare.com/files/363425211/SummaryForPolicymakers_WG1AR5-SPM_FOD_Final.pdf.html

Chapter 1: Introduction

http://www.peejeshare.com/files/363425214/Ch1-Introduction_WG1AR5_SOD_Ch01_All_Final.pdf.html

Chapter 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface

http://www.peejeshare.com/files/363436270/Ch2_Obs-atmosur_WG1AR5_SOD_Ch02_All_Final.pdf.html

Chapter 3: Observations: Ocean

http://www.peejeshare.com/files/363436276/Ch3_Obs-oceans_WG1AR5_SOD_Ch03_All_Final.pdf.html

Chapter 4: Observations: Cryosphere

http://www.peejeshare.com/files/363436279/Ch4_obs-cryo_WG1AR5_SOD_Ch04_All_Final.pdf.html

Chapter 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives

http://www.peejeshare.com/files/363436282/Ch5_Paleo_WG1AR5_SOD_Ch05_All_Final.pdf.html

Chapter 6: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles

http://www.peejeshare.com/files/363436285/Ch6_Carbonbio_WG1AR5_SOD_Ch06_All_Final.pdf.html

Chapter 7: Clouds and Aerosols

http://www.peejeshare.com/files/363436286/Ch7_Clouds-aerosols_WG1AR5_SOD_Ch07_All_Final.pdf.html

Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing

http://www.peejeshare.com/files/363425217/Ch8_Radiative-forcing_WG1AR5_SOD_Ch08_All_Final.pdf.html

Chapter 8 Supplement

http://www.peejeshare.com/files/363436312/Ch8_supplement_WG1AR5_SOD_Ch08_SM_Final.pdf.html

Chapter 9: Evaluation of Climate Models

http://www.peejeshare.com/files/363436298/Ch9_models_WG1AR5_SOD_Ch09_All_Final.pdf.html

Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional

http://www.peejeshare.com/files/363436302/Ch10_attribution_WG1AR5_SOD_Ch10_All_Final.pdf.html

Chapter 11: Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability

http://www.peejeshare.com/files/363436303/Ch11_near-term_WG1AR5_SOD_Ch11_All_Final.pdf.html

Chapter 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility

http://www.peejeshare.com/files/363425220/Ch12_long-term_WG1AR5_SOD_Ch12_All_Final.pdf.html

Chapter 13: Sea Level Change

http://www.peejeshare.com/files/363425221/Ch13_sea-level_WG1AR5_SOD_Ch13_All_Final.pdf.html

Chapter 14: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change

http://www.peejeshare.com/files/363425222/Ch14_future-regional_WG1AR5_SOD_Ch14_All_Final.pdf.html

Chapter 14 Supplement

http://www.peejeshare.com/files/363436309/Ch14_supplement_WG1AR5_SOD_Ch14_SM_Final.pdf.html

Technical Summary

http://www.peejeshare.com/files/363425223/TechnicalSummary_WG1AR5-TS_FOD_All_Final.pdf.html

======================================================

UPDATE3: a large “all in one” RAR file has been created by a reader “hippo”

Link to the entire set of documents, as single RAR archive:

http://www.filedropper.com/wwwstopgreensuicidecom

And now a bittorrent magnet link:

magnet:?xt=urn:btih:3f31ecb2a557732ea8d42e14b87aca7efb5dbcc7&dn=IPCCAR5&tr=http%3A%2F%2Ftracker.openbittorrent.com%2Fannounce&tr=udp%3A%2F%2Ftracker.openbittorrent.com%3A80%2Fannounce&tr=udp%3A%2F%2Ftracker.publicbt.com%3A80&tr=udp%3A%2F%2Ftracker.cc.de%3A80&tr=udp%3A%2F%2Ftracker.istole.it%3A80

reader “krischel” writes:

It’s a folder with each individual PDF in it.

If you have a torrent client like Transmission, you should be able to copy/paste open up that magnet URL and start downloading.

Replaced Link with the newer one. -ModE

==================================================

UPDATE4: 7:30AM PST 12/14/12 reactions are now coming in worldwide, see here, and the IPCC is going to issue a statement today.

UPDATE5: IPCC statement here: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ar5/statement/Statement_WGI_AR5_SOD.pdf

Full text here in this WUWT post (easier reading)

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Werner Brozek
December 15, 2012 8:20 pm

Richard M says:
December 15, 2012 at 5:53 pm
What if something else in an active Sun is the real cause of the warming?
Could El Ninos and La Ninas be influenced by the changes of the solar wind speed? See:
http://snag.gy/UtqpX.jpg
When the wind speed is low such as 1998 and 2010, we had El Ninos, but when the wind speed is high, such as 1989 and 2000, we had La Ninas.
(This is from the following at Dr. Spencer’s site: Ulric Lyons says:
December 14, 2012 at 4:14 PM
El Nino unforced? I don’t think so. Check for the big drops in solar wind speed in 1997 and 2009: http://snag.gy/UtqpX.jpg)

AndyG55
December 15, 2012 8:24 pm
AndyG55
December 15, 2012 8:28 pm

“So man made climate change is real. Get over it!
Said with very little proof, just a “WE BELIEVE” statement..
It’s a RELIGION………………………
your gods are a myth…
get over it !!!

joeldshore
December 15, 2012 8:40 pm

davidmhoffer says:

They do say on Ch11 that the models have low skill in predicting tropical cyclone frequency and intensity, then they day they have low confidence that there will be increases.

And, that compares to AR4 how exactly? They have always been saying the tropical cyclone frequency is hard to predict. The statement on intensity may be new but I don’t know.

In other words, they ain’t got a clue.

So, perhaps the fact that they are so honest about what they don’t know ought to give you more confidence in believing what they say they do know?

http://climatedepot.com/a/18800/Prof-Pielke-Jr-Analysis-of-UN-IPCC-Draft-report–IPCC-shows-almost-complete-reversal-from-AR4-on-trends-in-drought-hurricanes-floods

I’d prefer something more than Roger Pielke’s tweets with tiny quotations out of context. I am willing to believe that there has been some change since AR4 in some of these things…for example, the historical record on increases in hurricane intensity…but it would be nice to see a direct side-by-side comparison of what was said in each report rather than vague broad statements about a “complete reversal”. Roger Pielke is not the most credible source when it comes to interpreting / filtering things.

Jack Strawberry
December 15, 2012 8:40 pm

” Clouds generally have a cooling effect on the Earth’s temperature, because they reflect sunlight. ”
Has been the response to the report that GCR cause cloud seeding, or cooling due to albedo, but everyone knows water vapor traps more heat than releases it. Cloudy nights stary warm, clear nights cool… So wouldn’t in increase in solar or GCR, create more clouds, create more of a blanket on the earth? Which is it? Clouds redirect energy back into space, or trap it in the lower atmosphere? How do you do the math on that to see which effect exerts more influence in global temperatures??

Editor
December 15, 2012 9:30 pm

Thomas Edwards says:

Alex Rawls seems to have missed this vital bit on the next page of the report in section 7.4.5.3: “….” The lesson here is to read the context (which only requires scrolling to the next page) and to take cherry-picked sentences with a pinch of salt. I rest my case.

Right, I didn’t read the next page. Wait until you see my submitted comment on the paragraph you quoted. That you can repeat it without seeing what is wrong with it is embarrassing. Anybody want to clue Thomas in? His quote from the SOD:

The lack of trend in the cosmic ray intensity over the last 50 years (Agee et al., 2012; McCracken and Beer, 2007) provides another strong argument against the hypothesis of a major contribution of cosmic rays to ongoing climate change.

zootcadillac
December 15, 2012 9:45 pm

@joeldshore says: I’d prefer something more than Roger Pielke’s tweets with tiny quotations out of context. I am willing to believe that there has been some change since AR4 in some of these things…for example, the historical record on increases in hurricane intensity…but it would be nice to see a direct side-by-side comparison of what was said in each report rather than vague broad statements about a “complete reversal”
Then Joel, you should be very grateful for the early release of this set of documents as it will allow you to make such comparisons with ease.
I think the academic acronym is DYOFR.

zootcadillac
December 15, 2012 9:46 pm

@joeldshore says: I’d prefer something more than Roger Pielke’s tweets with tiny quotations out of context. I am willing to believe that there has been some change since AR4 in some of these things…for example, the historical record on increases in hurricane intensity…but it would be nice to see a direct side-by-side comparison of what was said in each report rather than vague broad statements about a “complete reversal”
Then Joel, you should be very grateful for the early release of this set of documents as it will allow you to make such comparisons with ease.
I think the academic acronym is DYOFR.

AndyG55
December 15, 2012 10:14 pm

The beauty is that the reversal of IPCC re hurricanes, storm Sandy, and other “dirty weather” makes catastrophists such as Gore and his disciples look VERY, VERY STUPID !!! 🙂

CodeTech
December 15, 2012 10:47 pm

Okay, I haven’t read ALL 409 comments ahead of me here, but I’ve sampled probably most of them.
SPM page 27, top of page in color:

There is consistent evidence from observations of a net energy uptake of the Earth System due to an imbalance in the energy budget. It is virtually certain that this is caused by human activities, primarily by the increase in CO2 concentrations. There is very high confidence that natural forcing contributes only a small fraction to this imbalance (see Figure SPM.3). {8.4.1, 8.5.1, 8.5.2, Figure 8.13, Figure 8.14, Figure 8.17, Figure 8.19}

Here’s the bottom line about this statement: If you actually believe that the state of “climate science” is genuinely advanced enough to credibly make such a claim, then you REALLY need to contact me regarding a business opportunity. For a reasonably small investment it is virtually certain that I can make you a millionaire. Really.
The only thing I see significantly different in this ridiculous parody of “science” is the use of stronger terms for their “certainty”. I know some people are going to weasel this up to a “scientific meaning” of the phrase “virtually certain”, but the phrase is intended to mean there is NO (credible) DOUBT.
If you ACTUALLY BELIEVE that it is “virtually certain” that human activities, primarily the increase in CO2 concentrations, is altering the climate in a measurable way, then there’s no other conclusion possible: you are a scientifically illiterate moron, with absolutely no concept of how even the simplest model of a planetary atmosphere works. Or for that matter, the normal convection that occurs in the very room you’re sitting in!
If you ACTUALLY BELIEVE that there is “very high confidence” that we have enough understanding of “natural forcings” to make such sweeping and confident declarations, you are a fool and pretty much deserve all the bad things you have coming to you.
Then again, I’m “virtually certain” that no skeptic is surprised by anything in AR5.

AndyG55
December 15, 2012 11:18 pm

“Then again, I’m “virtually certain” that no skeptic is surprised by anything in AR5”
I am. I’m surprised that they left the “no change in hurricane activity” and similar stuff in…..
but then and again, it is only the draft. 😉

thisisnotgoodtogo
December 16, 2012 12:19 am

Steven Mosher
Bring me a cup of agreement.

Man Bearpig
December 16, 2012 1:33 am

G Says … (Amongst other things)
”Now I will give the four outcomes of those possibilities:”
You think there are only 4 possible outcomes ? FOUR ?
Do you happen to write GCM’s for a living ?

Brian H
December 16, 2012 1:39 am

Just to let you know how deep the rot is, this is an excerpt of a side comment on an unrelated blog (discussing the Tesla Model S, comparing cost to a Miami condo, as it happens) by a well-off reasonably intelligent poster:

major parts of Miami will flooded or under a major threat of flooding by then do[due] to rising ocean levels. Miami Beach? Gone by the end of the century. Long term, anything on or very near the water in South Florida is a not a very wise investment. Ditto anything ocean-side just about anywhere. Venice here we come!

Uh, right.

Man Bearpig
December 16, 2012 1:56 am

G Says ..
‘“The world is not warming.”
It is:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/
It isn’t.
Overall, It warmed through the 20th Century then it stopped.
http://www.climatescienceinternational.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=743
Please can you explain how CO2 has managed to do this then ?

David Jones
December 16, 2012 2:06 am

Antwerpenaar says:
December 13, 2012 at 4:02 pm
“Usual self-serving claptrap. I’m a European taxpayer, and I didn’t actually want the report early – I wanted it issued in a controlled fashion, properly presented. But then we Europeans don’t matter, do we? And besides, this Alec Rawls guy has made his name by climbing over the backs of all the other team members, so that’s OK then.”
I am also a “European taxpayer” and I resent every penny that goes to the EU and is wasted on “carbon reduction” schemes (as if they had any chance of being effective.) So I think it is important that the process becomes clear and transparent. Presumably you believe everything you are told by your government (and the EU) in a “controlled fashion”? How naive can you be?
BTW, that chip on your shoulder is showing again!

AndyG55
December 16, 2012 2:36 am

“by the end of the century. Long term, anything on or very near the water in South Florida is a not a very wise investment. Ditto anything ocean-side just about anywhere. Venice here we come! ”
down here (Australia), most property is 2-3m at least above current sea level… and NOBODY is selling, not even Flannery !
Well , with around 1mm/decade (iirc) registered at Ft Denison (middle of Sydney Harbour), I guess that’s, like, 200+ years at least before anyone has to worry !

davidmhoffer
December 16, 2012 3:26 am

joeldshore;
Roger Pielke is not the most credible source when it comes to interpreting / filtering things.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
So read it yourself, document it, and prove him wrong. While you are doing so you can curse them for completing changing both format and terms of reference which makes this an onerous task. Along the way you might ask yourself why they made comparing AR4 to AR5 so difficult.
In the meantime, I’ve read AR4 and my initial read of a small portion of AR5 suggests Pielke is correct. Buckle down and do some reading yourself, be useful instead of sniping from the sidelines.

R. de Haan
December 16, 2012 4:01 am

This is great, even MSM in the Netherlands reporting about the role of the sun: http://www.elsevier.nl/web/Nieuws/Wetenschap/357162/VNklimaatorganisatie-erkent-belang-zon-bij-opwarming.htm
Translate with Google Translate

Venter
December 16, 2012 4:34 am

Zootcadillac, spot on. Joel Shore is not a credible or trustworthy source on any issue related to climate science. Let him DHOFR and spot flaws in RPK Jr.’s argument. If Joel says sky is blue also, nobody would believe it without independent verification.

D Böehm
December 16, 2012 4:52 am

Venter,
Exactly right. Joel Shore uses a veneer of science to promote his totalitarian leftist politics, just like any other anti-American communist would do. Perverting science is just a means to an end for him.

Mervyn
December 16, 2012 5:04 am

In relation to Chapter 7: Clouds and Aerosols – Is there any chance of obtaining the expert opinions of the following two scientists (1) Henrik Svensmark and (2) Jasper Kirkby?

Bruce C
December 16, 2012 6:47 am

“The fight between the British and the Germans was intense and fierce in the extreme. It was a deadly grapple. The Germans have been outmatched and outfought with the very kind of weapons with which they had beaten down so many small peoples, and also large unprepared peoples. They have been beaten by the very technical apparatus on which they counted to gain them the domination of the world. Especially is this true of the air and of the tanks and of the artillery, which has come back into its own on the battlefield. The Germans have received back again that measure of fire and steel which they have so often meted out to others. Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”
Sir Winston Churchill – 9 November 1942.

Carter
December 16, 2012 7:04 am

FAO D Böehm
‘show us verifiable, empirical evidence proving that AGW exists.’ and here it is!
AGU 2012 Fall Meeting: ‘What’s going on in the Arctic?’

thisisnotgoodtogo
December 16, 2012 7:46 am

Steven Mosher,
Agreement is what agree-rs do and nothing more. Your landscape is overgrown with topiary pieces.