Hello Everyone,
I wish to offer my sincere thanks for your assistance and willingness for the help and ideas in putting together a presentation and appear on the WUWT-TV event. Much of this came from reader’s ideas and insight.
We had a few technical glitches, we had a couple of embarrassing moments, and we had some great fun as well. The only criticisms that seemed to be pervasive was that it “wasn’t as well presented as Al Gore’s”.
Nothing could be truer, and nothing could be more illustrative of the disparity between the well funded “haves” and “have nots”. The next time somebody points to the meme “you skeptics are funded by big oil/big coal/ big something” all you need to do is point to this first effort, and that should shut them up because the entire WUWT effort was begged, borrowed, and donated from people “just like you” to borrow that PBS label.
In the process, I learned what to do and what not to do, and how to make the next effort better when we have to work on a limited budget. I think we won on the science content though.
Hilariously, we see still things like this coming from Gore during the event that tout that “big oil and “big coal” connection they imagine: http://realitydrop.org/about.
The video is priceless:
So, lessons learned, but we pulled it off, and I owe all of you a debt of gratitude. I’ll work to get YouTube recordings up next week. For now I need to rest a bit. Posting will be light this weekend.
Again, my sincerest thanks to all who contributed, participated, and watched. A special thanks to WUWT reader John Whitman who made two 300 mile round trip drives, battled a software learning curve, and spent over a week of his time working to bring us the “did you know” and Josh intermission slides. Thanks to Josh too.
Best Regards,
Anthony Watts, and Kenji
P.S. suggestions are welcome for how to use/improve this new medium.
PPS. It seems much of Mr. Gore’s traffic may have been bot driven, see this analysis left in comments:
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Stephen Rasey
Submitted on 2012/11/16 at 2:54 pm
For fun, I was considering the proposition that each of the viewers of WUWT-TV and Gore-TV might belong to 1 of 2 populations:
X = population with a mean view time of 1 hr. (Watchers)
Y = population with a mean view time of T minutes. (Bots + thrashers)
Let T = average view time for the Y population.
Let TV = Total Views in 24 hours.
Let CV = Current Views average over 24 hr.
CV = X + Y
TV = 24* (X + Y*60/T)
Solution:
X = CV*(60/(60-T)) – TV*(T/(24*(60-T)))
Y = CV – X
TV(WUWT) = 16,690 (what I remembered seeing. I could be wrong.)
CV(WUWT) = 550 is my guess at an average in a range of 420-670 from personal observation. Until we have something better.
TV(Gore) = 15.7 million (from mfo 02:28 prev. thread) . I cannot confirm that, but Reg. Blank above reports about million at 2.25 hours, about 10% into it.
CV(Gore) = 9000 @ TV=300K, 1.5 hr;
= 11200 @ TV=500K, 1.9 hr.
= 12100 @ TV “close to a million” at 2.25 hr. from Reg. Blank above.
Shortly after this the CV counter was taken down. So we will have to guess this by exploring a range of possible values. An important constraint here is that the three observation points give a mean view time of only 3 minutes (approx.).
Frac_TV_X = Fraction of TV that can come from X population (1 hr mean) views.
Frac_TV_X = X*24/TV
First, WUWT-TV: (TV=16690, CV=550)
If T=0.16, X=550, Y=0.4, Frac_TV_X = 0.790
If T=1, X=548, Y=2, Frac_TV_X= 0.787
If T=10, X=521, Y=29, Frac_TV_X = 0.749
So 74-79% of the TV (total views) are coming from the population views with a mean 1 hr.
Now Gore-TV: (TV = 15.7 million)
If CV = 36000 (3 times highest known value)
If T=0.16; X=34347; Y=1653; Frac_TV_X=0.053
If T=1; X=25523; Y=10477; Frac_TV_X=0.039
If T=2; X=14684; Y=21316; Frac_TV_X=0.022
If T=3; X=3465; Y=32535; Frac_TV_X=0.005
T>4 is not possible.
If CV=24000, T=0.16; X=22315; Y=1685; Frac_TV_X=0.034
If CV=50000, T=0.16; X=48385; Y=1615; Frac_TV_X=0.074
If CV=100000, T=0.16; X=98518; Y=1482; Frac_TV_X=0.151
Note: T=0.16 represents a viewer that is opening the stream and shutting it down in a 10 second loop. With T=0.16, X = watchers, Y = ‘bots.’
Conclusion: X is tightly coupled with the estimate for CV. But the fraction of total views from 1-hr Watchers is illuminating. The Frac_TV_X (= 1hr people views / total views) is highest for high CV and low T. For CV = 36000 (3 time higher than any reported in the first two hours) only 5% of the total views were from “watchers”, 95% from bots. We have to use CV=100,000 (8 times higher than max observed), to reach a point where even 15% of total views could be from a population with a 1 hr mean view. At least 85% of total views were bots cycling every 10 seconds.
I watched about 6 hours in all and it was rivetting Content, content, content. I did notice some slip-up, drop-outs etc, but so what! The contents and presenters were great and that’s what counts! I am looking forward to seeing bits that I missed in the video uploads later. Thanks a great deal.
This was a fantastic project! I did not see all of it but what I saw was really good. Thank you!
Promotional video for Reality Drop says:
‘The global climate crisis is a reality. It’s happening now. And manmade CARBON pollution is responsible.”
Aggghhhhh!!! Why? Why do they do this???
Loved the parts I saw online and looking forward to seeing the rest! Thank you everybody for your hard work, I thought the disparity of funds between you and Gore absolutely showed who has the moral upper hand…incidentally I wonder who had the largest carbon DIOXIDE footprint :o)
If you could put together a DVD I would gladly buy some as gifts for Christmas…extra funds for next time maybe!
As mentioned way back… a set of DVDs would be a wonderfull record of an historical event. With Christmas approaching the eternal question is what to give grandad. I think you might have a market there Anthony. (no adverts please) 🙂
Anthony, please permit me to cross-post a comment I had made at Bishop Hill:
Wow! What a day!
Highlights for me were (in order of appearance) Evans & Nova, Montford, Spencer, McIntyre, Ambler, Maurabito and Laframboise … and, of course, Kenji.
I don’t do early mornings, so unfortunately I missed McKitrick and Lindzen – and others [on Nov 14] and during the day, [Nov 15] (because of other commitments) – whom I would like to have heard. So I look forward to watching the replays on YouTube.
The technical glitches in this tremendous effort on Anthony’s part provided additional notes of authenticity that – when the history books are written – I believe will do as much to demolish the Mann-made myth of a “big oil funded skeptic campaign” as McIntyre, McKitrick & Montford have done to demolish Mann’s most famous “creation” [h/t J. Gergis], his hockey-stick.
Many thanks to Anthony, his benefactor, and to all the presenters; and as the old song goes … this could be the start of something big!
P.S. Helpful Hint from Hilary to Steve McIntyre (if you’re reading this) … next time you do a Skype interview from that same location, you might want to try reflecting some light on the wall behind you and on the ceiling above and behind you. Then you won’t appear as though you inhabit the “dark side” 😉
PS: Add to the list of legitimate scientific organizations that dissent from climate alarmism the US Association of State Climatologists. (Or so someone on WUWT once claimed.)
I recall reading that here prominent members of the Chinese and Indian climate-related scientific organizations have stated that the science is NOT settled, to the dismay of mainstream commenters.
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Here’s a credible link to send to persons who imply that only cranks are disbelievers:
I suggest that someone visit Wiki and enter Dr. Evans name on the list–it’s missing.
Incidentally, I note that the number of names on the list has been cut in half (about) from what it was three years ago. Presumably Connolley and his crew used nit-picking objections about the stature of the people listed and/or the wiki-worthy status of the sources in which their comments were made.
It would be worthy of an article here on WUWT to compile a list of all the names that have been removed, as a way of demonstrating Wiki’s absurdity, bias, and corruption. Also, it would result in a nearly complete worldwide compilation of the names of prominent dissenting scientists in climate-related fields, which could be posted online and cited in the future. (Does such a list exist already.)
PS to my prior comment (which failed to pop up with the normal “awaiting moderation” notice): Once our side compiles a list of prominent dissenting scientists, someone can insert it into Wikipedia’s article on the topic prefaced by a remark to the effect that “A longer list, which includes short comments of the scientists involved, can be found HERE (link).” Let’s then see what feeble and/or outrageous excuse Connolley’s Crew uses to delete it–which we can then publicize.
Oops–I meant to say “insert a link to it”.
Thank You and your excellent Interview-guests…great work. I’ve seen only the Segments with McIntyre, Ball, Bastardi, D’Aleo, Kehr, a part of Ambler and Donna Laframboise, and am looking forward to see the other Experts soon on Youtube.
Gores Circus was nothing but embarrassing and sometimes just hilarious…
Thumbs up, Anthony and be careful.
J.R.
Gore needs to find some way of stopping those evil Big Oil funded climate denialists at the CRU from publishing their HadCRUT temperature product. (The CRU was funded with money from BP, IIRC)
It shows no warming since 1998…
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/normalise/from:1998/plot/esrl-co2/from:1998/normalise
Hope “ponyboy” drops by to destroy me argumentatively….
ROTFLMAO.
“Reality Drop” is just a repackaging of SkepticalScience and looks WORSE.
http://realitydrop.org/myths/45
Anthony
If you could put the whole thing on DVDs I would willing pay an exhorbitant sum of money for it. Could be done by direct download.
What mattered to me was the content, not the tech bobbles. I learned several things, and made a shopping list of ‘Christmas present books’. So much thanks and it was well worth it.
When the recordings are up, I’ll be watching several of them, too. (Despite my best efforts, I fell asleep at about 4 AM and didn’t wake up until 10 or so, and missed a couple of segments. Dang it….
Some of your ‘short watch’ folks will be technical ‘restarts’. I had the battery on the laptop suddenly die twice on me, requiring a power-brick / restart / reconnect. (The spouse was wondering why I was cooking dinner with the laptop and headset on 😉
I finally got a decent handle on the El Nino / La Nina / ENSO complex from one presentation, got a better insight into how hurricanes are predicted from Joe Bastardi. And from your segment, I think I’ve figured out why the large disconnect happened in 1987-1992 with the change of “mod flags” in GHCN.
(In the KUSI segment, Petersen said they discovered a ‘cooling bias’ in the MMTS that had to be ‘adjusted’. In your segment you pointed out that the MMTS was just more accurate and it was the Stevensen Screens that tended to darken and peal paint with age and warm. Thus the ‘adjust all history cooler’ of GHCN to ‘adjust’ for the ‘cooling bias’ of the MMTS is really locking in a long slow warm error from paint fading and peeling… They ought to have adjusted nothing and just let a step change of ‘correction’ enter the data with the MMTS offset being a footnote about paint…)
Also got to ‘get to know some folks’ face to face, sort of. Jo Nova is a charmer. Burt Rutan is a very creative thinker not easily mislead. (Loved the slanted bookcase in the background… eliminates need for bookends…) Joe Bastardi is so in love with his work and energetic. Things you don’t get from words on a screen (or page).
Oh, and Kenji… Just loved his cameos.
So don’t worry about the occasional need to drop video to get clear sound, or juggle some slides back and forth. It did right the things that mattered. You can always get a canned video done later if desired. Seeing real live people in real time was just a whole lot more ‘personal’. Had it all been slick as can be, that personal contact element would have been lost.
“The data is clear!” so sayeth the priceless video. Yep, it’s cooling!
http://www.c3headlines.com/2012/11/obama-spews-amazing-anti-science-drivel-about-global-warming-the-ignorance-lies-is-stunning.html
Reality Drop- Almost fell out of my chair laughing. “More from Skeptical Science”…”This from UCS” …Same BS. Medieval warm period was regional, 2010 hottest year ever (don’t mention records started at 1850), arctic has melted before but this time it is mans fault, and my personal favorite…”Carbon dioxide is like a control knob on the earths thermostat”. This was part of the explanation of why CO2 is more important in the atmosphere then water vapor.
This is like watching “Airplane” for the 100th time.
Well done to Anthony and the WUWT crew. I saw some great presentations, especially enjoying the one by Lindzen and the Kalte Sonne author. IMO a two hour presentation once a month with the aggregation post edited and run as the 24 hr special annually seems to be the way to go in order to pace yourself and keep WUWT TV upfront in the minds of the public.
A wonderful first effort. Why not do it again in six months time without any waitng for Gore’s next effort. I’m sure you could get all the funding you require from your supporters for a superb, professionaly produced presentation, put together by experts in the field. Donations towards the project could start now. This is certainly a powerful tool for getting the truth across to a mass audience that generally does not know of the existence of WUWT or other sceptic sites.
Lindzen’s presentation (when on you tube) should be shown at schools and colleges.
I was only able to watch bits now and then, (and reception was not good) but was hugely impressed with what I saw. Congratulations. The Reality Drop video I find disturbing. Well meaning and enquiring minds (especially perhaps children) will pick up the quotes and pass them on in true belief. This is further indoctrination.
Embarrassing? No … authentic, fascinating, earnest. The info packed hours were short enough without the glitches, so yes, sacrifice a little “authenticity” for more content. Some things needed more than an hour, some needed more interaction with questions. These are good things to need. I just watched the first 3 hours of that dirty Gore thing, and had to FF through significant fractions of each hour to get to what was supposed to be the “content”, which amounted to shallow talking points, mostly with activists about what everybody needs to do. I didn’t agree with everything the WUWT presenters had to say, and had questions about some of it. Isn’t science fun!
Breaking news: For first time IPCC are not invited to next Climate Talks (in Doha just days away and a month and a half till the Kyoto Commitment ends.)
http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=544308&version=1&template_id=36&parent_id=16
Professionalism would only have reduced the value of the WUWT-TV. This can be seen in many comments above. The energy of a live music concert is so much more than a recording of it, as with most live events.
In 30 years I have never taken the whole day off work just to watch TV, not even for the World Cup, but I did for WUWT-TV and it was worth it!
A lie may go around the world in the time it takes for truth to get it’s boots on, but the energy and power of truth is incomparable, and is often a cause for real change. The list of those who made presentations was like a sharp focusing of truth, a real working together for a common purpose in harmony, and no one cared about the time zones or technology hiccups, the nervousness and illness, it just had to be done and it was!
Brilliant!
The WUWT-TV format should be protected and valued. If there are future days of WUWT-TV then, apart from minor technical enhancements, the format should remain similar. Let it even be recognised as a WUWT-TV style.
If there is another WUWT-TV, I propose that it is parallel with the Gore nonsense again next year, and that it is kept live by having at least two studios, and perhaps three, covering the main time zones.
Add my voice to all of the others, offering thanks and hope that the truth will out.
HaroldW says:
November 16, 2012 at 6:31 pm
Gail Combs –
You mentioned Bob Tisdale’s presentation. No need to wait for Anthony: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmjaNO5DD_Q
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Oh, thanks! I’ll watch it as soon as I wake-up a bit more.
Due to personal reasons, I wasn’t able to watch more than a couple of hours live. But what I saw was both very enjoyable and very informative. Thank you for the massive efforts pulling this together. I hope the presentations will be available as Youtube videos, linked to from a page providing an overview of the event, plus highlight what you consider the most significant material. Then I shall be able to do some catch up.
Many years ago, Norwegian TV used to show ‘pause fishes’ (small aquarium) between the programs. You had ‘sleeping Kenji, member of UCS’ serving the exact same purpose, and that part I really enjoyed 🙂
Well done, and thank you again!