Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
As at 2 PM Pacific time, here’s the current position of Sandy and the projected path.
SOURCE: National Data Buoy Center
I had said a couple of days ago, when Sandy was a hurricane, that it would not be a hurricane when it hit the coast. How did that go?
Well, as of the time that this location and projection of the path was done, the NDBC has shown all the nearest stations. Not one of the actual observations is showing sustained winds over 50 knots, and that’s a long ways from the 72 63 knots that marks a hurricane.
Please note that the big damage from such storms is the flooding, so I am not minimizing the likely extent of the damage. It will be widespread. However … not a hurricane.
w.
Addition by Anthony:
Harold Ambler has a photo of storm surge in Rhode Island here
Flooding in the subway in Newark, NJ (via FirstHand Weather on Facebook)
The term originally used was “Frankenstorm,” implying that it would combine with two other approaching storm systems to form a huge hurricane that would dump massive rainfall inland. That was hype (IIRC–which I may not) and is a valid target for critique.
oops–I indented those last two paragraphs when I meant to outdent them (I forgot to insert the slash).
Here’s a direct link to the catastrophic-impacts study of NYC I alluded to above:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/111610145/NYC-Worst-Case
Here are things I’d order if I were NYC’s mayor:
1. Office buildings must be flood-proofed with sealable doorways, windows, shafts, etc.
2. Where it is practical, flood-proofing measures should be implemented for residential buildings.
3. Instead of focusing primarily on evacuation to shelters, except as a fallback measure, superintendents of low-lying residential buildings should be required to stockpile some emergency rations for residents. These could be stored in newly added lockers or sheds on the roof, paid for by the city.
4. They must also stockpile hammocks to accommodate residents of ground-level apartments. Attachment posts for such hammocks must be installed in the hallways of such residences.
5. A bulletin board and/or whiteboard should be installed on the second floor where residents could post requests for help, or offers of assistance, for other residents to read.
6. Local-area (two-block square?) phone booklets should be printed and distributed to superintendents for distribution to residents in case of emergency, so inter-building cooperation could be organized. Ditto for booklets of the e-mails of local-area residents.
7. The general population should be encouraged to stockpile food for the hurricane season, such as canned corned beef, tuna fish, etc.
PS: The storage lockers on the roof should be resistant to break-ins and accessible only by a sophisticated locking system by the superintendent. And they should contain emergency supplies, like lanterns, as well as food.
PPS: 8. Buildings would be required to install whole-building surge protectors to guard the sensitive electronics inside (even on appliances that are nominally “off” like TVs and microwaves) from being fried from surges preceding a blackout. And all residents and businesses should be encouraged to acquire HEFTY Uninterruptible Power Supplies for their computers.
PPPS: 9. All buildings must have emergency lighting systems installed in their hallways and stairways.
10. Superintendents, and perhaps “floor captains” in large apartment buildings, would be given bullhorns, stored in lockers, with which they could reach many residents at once.
They called it hurricane Sandy – and New Jersey streets get covered in sand. I’d hate to be around for hurricane Rocky.
“Theo Goodwin says:
October 30, 2012 at 8:40 pm
If you are correct in the remainder of your post there is no point in improving the entrances because the subways are wet from many other natural sources.”
Well, my ancestors helped build the original NYC power grid, and it is easy enough to confirm. What I am generally attempting to explain is the seemingly pointless placing of short walls of sandbags at subway entrances. It is simple math. If, for instance, you know the system is going to flood at 12 feet, no matter what you do, and the door is at 11.5 feet, there is little point to building a wall more than 6 inches high.
Theo,
A few photos showing surge or surge after affects:
This neighborhood in queens burned down because of high surge cutting of FDNY. You can see some remnants of the surge over to the right:
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/18/firerr.jpg/
Twin towers rebuild area flooding:
http://i.huffpost.com/gadgets/slideshows/259321/slide_259321_1700140_free.jpg?1351566825038
East Village (I screamed at the moron in the water first time I saw this):
http://static.businessinsider.com/image/508f1d90ecad04bc50000012-915/new-york-cars-float-through-the-east-village.jpg
Lindenhurst:
http://static.businessinsider.com/image/508eff0069bedda85400001c-915/new-york-people-wade-and-paddle-down-a-flooded-street-in-lindenhurst.jpg
Brooklyn:
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_10_2012/post-32-0-42964100-1351600072.jpg
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_10_2012/post-32-0-86617400-1351600087.jpg
South Merrick, Long Island:
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_10_2012/post-963-0-83217400-1351610612.jpeg
More random photos from around the area:
http://images.nationalgeographic.com/wpf/media-live/photos/000/607/cache/how-rats-fared-superstorm-hurricane-sandy-street_60743_600x450.jpg
http://images.nationalgeographic.com/wpf/media-live/photos/000/607/cache/hurricane-superstorm-sandy-hits-shops_60730_600x450.jpg
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_10_2012/post-32-0-01078400-1351628446.jpg
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=76806
“Roger Knights says:
October 31, 2012 at 3:37 am
Here are things I’d order if I were NYC’s mayor:”
Roger, This website often addresses the question of prevention versus mitigation.
1 & 2: There is no such thing as a flood-proofed building, especially in a city where most equipment connects underground; and even if it were possible, you would then have buildings which would try to float.
3 & 4: Assuming you could devise a rat-proof, bug-proof, weather-proof, and theft-proof locker with permanently imperishable food (yum!), you are dependent on the superintendant not losing the key, stealing the contents, or fleeing the building in the face of an impending disaster.
5: They have these things called walls….
6: People complain about census-takers (10 years), and you expect them to cooperate in maintaining a detailed neighborhood census?
7: Hurricane season? How often do hurricanes strike NYC? (Sandy was a tropical cyclone trying desperately to become a nor-easter.)
8: Not possible in rent-controlled apartments. Outside rent-control, you’d give the building-owners a say in what electronics you could have.
Ric Werme says:
October 30, 2012 at 11:34 pm
I appreciate your efforts to make sense of newly coined terms such as “SuperStorm” and “Frankenstorm.” I cannot disagree with anything you have said. Other questions remain:
What is a “SuperStorm?” Is a Category 5 hurricane a SuperStorm? How about a Category 2?
My point here is that the use of terms such as “SuperStorm” is a kind of semantic piracy in which news media take us away from the science of hurricanes and put us in a kind of Al Gore lalaland of global warming or whatever. Science must win the semantic battles or lose everything.
In scientific terms, what made Sandy special? The one thing that you mention is the unusually large area of tropical storm force winds that Sandy produced. I agree. That is special. But it does not merit the name SuperStorm. A larger tropical storm is not more dangerous than a smaller tropical storm except in the rare case that the larger storm means more flooding in a given area.
I am especially offended by those who make so much of the size of the cloud cover generated by Sandy. As I explained in an earlier post in WUWT’s forum on that topic, the example of Hurricane Floyd shows that size of cloud cover tells us nothing about where damage will occur or how bad it will be.
As regards the claim that “SuperStorm” is justified as an appropriate warning, what are news media to tell New Yorkers if a Category 5 approaches New York City? Will “MegaStorm” work? What about “AsLargeAsOurNationalDebtStorm?”
buddyellis says:
October 31, 2012 at 7:45 am
Thanks much for the images you referenced. I am looking for video of the storm surge. Apparently, it does not exist. I wanted the video so that I could compare Sandy’s storm surge in New York Harbor with other storm surges that I have seen.
A. Scott says:
October 30, 2012 at 10:51 pm
Then why don’t you use the standard terminology when attempting to describe a hurricane?
A. Scott says:
October 30, 2012 at 10:48 pm
“There are widespread readings from 60-90+ mph from Virginia thru New York and up to Rhode Island … this storm was a super storm – and did have hurricane force winds PER THE NWS data – both before and AFTER landfall.”
Please see:
“See – owe to Rich says:
October 31, 2012 at 12:40 am”
He explains the difference between sustained wind speed and gust speed. He gives you the all important sustained wind speed readings. Sandy was a tropical storm not a hurricane.
@ur momisugly A Scott, Tucker, Werme, and a couple others. You guys need to get a grip on reality.
As noted by observations listed by “See – owe to Rich says: October 31, 2012 at 12:40 am ” and providing weather observations by the NWS, your arguments are a fantasy. I use that term rather than a less inflammatory one as you have attacked Willis Eschenbach and Theo Goodwin for simply stating the objective facts and basing their discussions on those facts. Now you can put me in the same camp, it will be an honor.
I provided documentation of NWS current local conditionsat appropriate locations that I recorded in comments in an earlier WUWT lead post http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/28/hurricane-sandy-is-making-the-turn-towards-the-north/#more-73235
I don’t have the time now to prepare a written essay to show the fantasy produced by the NHC reports on Sandy but it is order of the hype produced with regards to Irene.
If anyone would like to use the “copy and paste” NWS current local conditions that I recorded in the previous article as linked above please fell free to do so. My spare time is limited this time of the year.
Fact vs Fantasy. There is a place for both. The media are going to use fantasy. The NHC should not.
see – owe to Rich:
The first link I posted was to the NWS Weatehr Statement at 11:00pm EDT well after landfall – it included both advisory’s and this weather OBSERVATION:
I then provided the following link – where you can look at all parameters of the storm yourself – I pulled in the wind measurements:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sgx/kml/lsr.php?cwa=okx&lsr=Marine%20Thunderstorm%20Wind,Non-Thunderstorm%20Wind%20Gust,Thunderstorm%20Wind%20Gust&start=201210290000&end=201210300531
NWS weather observations show max sustained winds at 75mph hours after landfall. And the mapped observations show a very large number of reported winds from the 60’s well in to the 90’smph range
I could not care less if you call it a hurricane or not – the FACTS are it was a highly dangerous storm with hurricane force winds well after landfall. The death and destruction supports that statement.
Theo,
Few clips in this abc video:
http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=17596261
FWIW, I object pretty strenuously to the hype myself. If this was a storm that hit in the gulf, with the same characteristics, its just another day in the life of living on the coast. Its location, really, that makes this a ‘big’ thing, but I really wish they’d put it in context. This storm had a 10′ surge. Katrina had a surge that ranged from 25′ to 45′ depending on location. Same with Camille. As strength of storms goes, this really wasn’t anything extraordinary. It WAS a very large storm, size adjusted, though, and it’s kinetic potential was very high as a result, however it was no katrina, or camille, or andrew, or charlie.
Personally I think the classification of storms on the Saffir-Simpson scale is outdated, and a new methodology needs to be utilized. There are several in ‘test’ (IKE, ACE, etc). Wind speeds alone don’t tell me much until you get into the upper levels (winds over 120mph are a cluster anyway you look at it), and SURGE is the biggest cause of destruction generally.
A. Scott says:
October 31, 2012 at 10:50 am
see – owe to Rich:
“I then provided the following link – where you can look at all parameters of the storm yourself – I pulled in the wind measurements:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sgx/kml/lsr.php?cwa=okx&lsr=Marine%20Thunderstorm%20Wind,Non-Thunderstorm%20Wind%20Gust,Thunderstorm%20Wind%20Gust&start=201210290000&end=201210300531”
All the wind measurements that you pulled in are for gust speed.
How ridiculous – he does no such thing – he provided a ling to ONE SINGLE SITE – JFK airport.
On the other hand I provided a link where – if people were not so lazy – they could view wind speeds for the entire region – and zoom to any area. And that NWS/NOAA data clearly shows a large number of readings from the 60’s to well over 90mph.
Once again you provide ZERO support for your claims and position. And refuse to look at any data which does not support your undocumented claims.
Once again – I do not care what the storm was called … it was for a FACT, beyond a shadow of a doubt, an extremely dangerous storm. At last count 50 U.S. deaths and damages of $50 billion, both still climbing – and folks like you still ridiculing the strength of the storm.
Truly Amazing …
I know. I’ve been posting here regularly for over four years. If you’re implying that my suggestions have been addressed here previously, you’re wrong.
If the only water intrusion came from seepage around a few incoming pipes and cables in the basement, a sump pump could pump it into a hose and out a first-floor window, perhaps with the assistance of an occupant.
Not in Manhattan. Or Brooklyn. Their buildings aren’t made of wood. And even wooden buildings don’t float when flooded, unless swept off their foundations by running water or powerful waves. In NYC, few buildings are exposed to wave action, only those on the waterfront.
For the first three, it would have to be made of sturdy metal, and waterproof. That’s no problem. As for theft-proof, a loud alarm that sounds when it’s opened, even by the person with the key, would do the trick. This is the technique used to prevent misuse of emergency exits.
Such tucker was deemed sufficient for civil defense shelters. Survivors won’t worry about tastiness much. If necessary, it could be donated to food banks and replaced after every three (say) years. MRE meals for the military are OK for two years, and the military’s surplus finds eager buyers.
OK, give out multiple keys to certain residents, and allow the back-up alarm as a fallback protection. Of course, this wouldn’t be 100% foolproof either, but that’s not a good argument against my proposal. Instead, it’s a demand for uunobtainable perfection, which is listed as a fallacy in a book by Madsen Pirie (How to Win Every Argument: The Use and Abuse of Logic, p. 171). He wrote, “The fallacy of unobtainable perfection is committed when lack of perfection is urged as a basis for rejection, even though none of the alternatives [‘including making no change at all’ he adds later] is perfect either.”
So why then are bulletin boards or whiteboards ever used anywhere? Why don’t people just write on the walls instead? In addition to avoiding defacing the walls, and being erasable and reusable for additional messages, and providing an appropriate writing implement, such communication aids invite people to make requests for assistance and offers of help, which bare walls don’t.
The phone company already has the data and already prints borough-wide phone books. Its computers can easily produce neighborhood-wide phone books.
The hurricane season runs from June through October (five months). (I don’t recall any Nor’easters hitting NYC in the decades when I lived there. If there are any, they wouldn’t cause severe flooding.) If stockpiling food for such a long period seems impractical, then residents should be urged to do so at least when a major storm threatens, as Sandy and Irene did. That would be better advice to give residents not living on the ground floor than urging them to evacuate, which is the current mayor’s advice. If, after the storm, the power is likely to be out for a week or more and evacuation seems desirable, such residents could evacuate on the day after the storm, or the next day, when the waters have receded.
But such apartments have had to install smoke detectors and garbage cans devoted to recyclable material, so I doubt that you’re correct that they couldn’t be required to install surge-protectors too.
The landlord would only have a valid concern about the renter’s total wattage exceeding what the surge protector could handle—and each renter’s fuse box prevents overload there already.
Buddy E says:
October 31, 2012 at 11:04 am
Very well said. Those people who seem to be distraught about the storm because of the damage it created should change their focus to measures of adaptation.
(I could go on forever about the details – just one more. If you look at the West coast of Florida, you will find that sea level is 3 to 4 feet lower than the top of the beach and that the beach ends in a wall that is 3 to 10 feet high. Switch to New Jersey and the buildings on the beach are barely above sea level, including hotels, and are protected by a concrete wall that might be two feet high.)
A Scott – welcome to the real world
“Once again you provide ZERO support for your claims and position. And refuse to look at any data which does not support your undocumented claims.
Once again – I do not care what the storm was called … it was for a FACT, beyond a shadow of a doubt, an extremely dangerous storm. At last count 50 U.S. deaths and damages of $50 billion, both still climbing – and folks like you still ridiculing the strength of the storm.
Truly Amazing …”
Theo: All the wind measurements that you pulled in are for gust speed.
So what? A gust is as or more damaging than a sustained wind. 50 people are dead and $50 billion in damages – both climbing.
A Scott, you are a bleeding heart liberal. From your point of view; damn the facts, I’m a liberal and negative viewpoints are all that count unless it’s so-called sustainability by burning food. Get a grip. You are a product of media hype. Go have a beer or two and then respond. Relax, the truth will prevail whether you want it to or not.