Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
As at 2 PM Pacific time, here’s the current position of Sandy and the projected path.
SOURCE: National Data Buoy Center
I had said a couple of days ago, when Sandy was a hurricane, that it would not be a hurricane when it hit the coast. How did that go?
Well, as of the time that this location and projection of the path was done, the NDBC has shown all the nearest stations. Not one of the actual observations is showing sustained winds over 50 knots, and that’s a long ways from the 72 63 knots that marks a hurricane.
Please note that the big damage from such storms is the flooding, so I am not minimizing the likely extent of the damage. It will be widespread. However … not a hurricane.
w.
Addition by Anthony:
Harold Ambler has a photo of storm surge in Rhode Island here
Flooding in the subway in Newark, NJ (via FirstHand Weather on Facebook)
Super hot US summer, super low arctic sea ice minimum, and now a super storm. It could all be coincidence, or there could be some other explanation…
Hmmm, bad they let the transformers blow out. They had plenty of warning of the storm and should have taken the power down. The area was evacuated and hospitals have UPS. That’s what they did in the UK during the storm of ’87 and they had hardly any warning at all. Secured the power stations until the damaged lines could be isolated from the system.
Somebody really needs to kick ass at the electricity suppliers. This is hardly the first time they have screwed up in New York area. Seems like the whole system is creaking under the strain – probably Team AGW has something to do with that, making sure the spare capacity isn’t there.
Re. my comment on taking the eleccy system down. FT in the UK has a nice picture showing how one of the suppliers did indeed take the lectric down but others didn’t . I’m guessing that the transformer blow-outs were more likely in places where the electric wasn’t taken down? Just a thought.
Any pictures showing sharks, seals, scuba divers, Pamela Anderson, giant cats, the Statue of Liberty in the eye of the storm are all FAKED (H/T FT Alphaville again). Some have been faked using images from “the day after tomorrow” – agenda, much?
Ric Werme says:
October 29, 2012 at 10:32 pm
OK. We were much better than you up here in western NH. Not much wind. There is some local flash flooding in Grafton county. Some power outages, but nothing big. We did not lose power one time last night. Kids have school on schedule this morning.
If this was such a minor storm, why can’t I find any stories about Long Beach Island, a barrier island off New Jersey, since yesterday afternoon? I suspect there are stories to be told.
I dislike it when there are reports of cattle dying in the cold and warmists immediately show graphs and say no its not cold look its a record warm year.
Unfortunately, it appears many here are falling into the same trap – so it was only storm force 11 and not severe storm force 12…. tell that to the people on Breezy point whose houses burned down as the fire trucks couldn’t get through the floods from the storm surge, tell it to the people in Atlantic City and other flooded towns in New Jersey… and we haven’t yet seen the destruction in daylight. Sixteen people dead at the last count — and people are saying see!! see these readings!! it was 10 knots lower so its not a hurricane! That’s really good news want to go to Breezy point and tell them?
Theo Goodwin says:
October 29, 2012 at 7:40 pm
_Jim says:
October 29, 2012 at 6:51 pm
Check out Staten Island, at least news stories are coming from there.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2012/10/tanker-run-aground-by-superstorm-sandy/
Not very big, and only a water tanker, not oil, but very definitely aground, though most of the ship has water around it. 🙂
Natural variability, maybe? The human tendency to link random events to some imagined cause with no evidence is magical thinking, not science.
You mean the police? I already called NStar (our power company). I really don’t like the big tree resting on the power cable, even though it’s wrapped around a steel cable. It’s pulling the near pole toward the house. So I hope they get here soon and deal with the situation.
/Mr Lynn
I guess I can say, “I survived Hurricane Sandy” in western MD.
The center is almost right on top now, but winds are light. More like a typical low now than a hurricane. I got about 4″ rain — not as bad as expected & the resulting flooding isn’t unusual. But the neighbor’s huge, old barn 150 yards from my house is a pile of rubble! Stood for 90 yrs.
Somehow, tho the lights flickered constantly w/transient shorts, it never went out. That’s almost as amazing as the storm.
What will be interesting is how long it takes to get the subways, the subterranean generators and transformers, and other flooded electrical thingies working again. Salt water and electrical components don’t mix, and the age of much of the wiring won’t help.
Ric Werme says:
October 30, 2012 at 6:01 am
“If this was such a minor storm, why can’t I find any stories about Long Beach Island, a barrier island off New Jersey, since yesterday afternoon? I suspect there are stories to be told.”
Ric – what’s up with you? No one is downplaying this as a “minor” storm! Please calm down…
Again, as far as my corner of New Hampshire is concerned: some power outages (soon to be resolved), some flooding, no major business or school closures – life goes on. Again, from my perspective, Irene was MUCH worse…
John Brookes says:
October 30, 2012 at 3:47 am
“Super hot US summer, super low arctic sea ice minimum, and now a super storm. It could all be coincidence, or there could be some other explanation…”
Yes – it’s called “nature”. The things you mention have happened before and they will happen again. The history of the world is much, much longer than the 10 or 20 years of recent history that you identify with. I hope you’re not thinking that you can control the weather…and I hope you’re not being misled by CAGW “scientists” with agendas…
The BBC’s “The Wright Stuff” presenter was carping on about how climate change and human CO2 emisions were behind “Hurricane” Sandy and how climate scientists predictions were coming to fruition. This show is particularly malevolent, designed soley for the purposes of mind control. Discussions are only allowed within the scam paradigms in which we live e.g. “obesity is caused by over eating”. Yuk! You can have any opinion you like so long as the lie is reinforced.
Willis deserves some criticism here. His analysis to declare this “not a hurricane” just so he could write an “I told you so” article is laughable. Wind gusts of over 70-80 MPH were reported inland from 5-9pm ET last night. It’s reasonable to assume there were sustained hurricane force winds over ocean at that time. Just because 2 buoys at one single point in time did not report hurricane force winds does not mean that this was not a hurricane. Heck, this buoy near New York Harbor buoy was reporting SUSTAINED winds of around 50 kts from 5pm to 9pm.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=robn4
If it was not a hurricane at landfall, it was really, really close to hurricane strength. Why write a post to split hairs, especially one with such a shoddy analysis? It just makes WUWT look bad after what looks like one of the most expensive natural disasters occurred in the US.
James says:
October 30, 2012 at 7:07 am
I agree with you James. Sandy was likely a hurricane when it hit, but it really doesn’t matter. We will be dealing with the aftermath of the storm surge, power outages, flooding, and wind damage for months.
What incenses me, however, is the use of a natural disaster like Sandy to further the perverse political agendas of government and academic CAGW climate scientists.
(By the way, has everyone noticed that most in the lame-stream media are NOT referring to “hurricane” Sandy but “super-storm” Sandy? Why do you think that is??).
The 1893 “West Indian Monster” was alleged to have had a 30 foot storm surge in NYC devastating structures in Queens and Brooklyn (A Cat 2 storm) or twice that claimed for Sandy. I don’t know what tide the 1893 storm made landfall but the eye passed over what is now JFK with severe flooding in much of the area.
The 1893 storm, amazingly, was “forgotten” until about a decade ago when a dredging project near JFK turned up artifacts (building stone etc) that later research found to be the remains of the “forgotten” Hog Island – an inhabited island that totally disappeared in fact and memory following the storm. (The research into this forgotten storm required a rewrite of the hurricane return history for NYC)
It is INCORRECT to say Sandy caused little damage in the area- however it is equally incorrect for the media to sell a message that this storm’s damage was unusual or as bad as it can get. It is the unique geography of the NYC area that makes surge so very dangerous. (coast makes a right angle between NJ and Long Island with the Hudson, East and Raritan Rivers smack in the middle) Additionally, NYC must consider with the much higher wind speeds hitting the upper floors of skyscrapers and the consequences of windows being sucked out starting a cascade of flying glass and furniture. We were fortunate that Sandy’s wind speeds were not near hurricane strength (although media continually described gusts as evidence of a hurricane and misstated surge levels).
NYC and the Jersey shore barrier islands IMHO are still woefully unprepared for a direct hit Cat 2 or 3 and for the Media to communicate to the Public a narrative that Sandy defines a worst case scenario does a great disservice.
I’m about 25 miles west of NYC and while the winds did not seem too bad- was surprised to find at least fifteen 100 year old Linden trees down within a 1/4 mile of the house. (Oaks and Pines seemed to have been left intact) Thankfully relatively little rain. (Ya gotta love generators!)
I’ll leave it to the experts to declare what, exactly, Sandy was, and when, but I was monitoring the Mount Holly, NJ, radar on my computer at the apex. As the storm center came ashore near Atlantic City, the winds abruptly shifted from east>west to south>north, and a distinct eye (precipitation-map) formed about 30 minutes later, just east of Philadelphia, moving WNW. I was hoping to do a screen-capture showing the eye over my location on the map, but the power failed while we were in the eye-wall. Most areas in Phili’s north suburbs lost power around this time.
George V said on October 30, 2012 at 6:49 am:
New from the Obama administration: The Hurricane Stimulus Plan! It has EVERYTHING. Infrastructure spending, as the subways need be rebuilt. Lots of shovel-ready jobs ready to go (mainly storm debris that needs be shoveled away).
Over TEN MILLION JOBS will be created or saved, which is primarily all the jobs in NYC and half of those in New Jersey.
Low interest loans to business owners (your voluntary contributions to the Obama campaign will be verified). Free assistance for the needy, just show a Democratic Party membership card as proof you’re an eligible US citizen, preferably your own. Hiring starting soon, show your union card to be ushered to the front of the line.
And all for a mere $200 billion (pre-election estimate), a true bargain! Peanuts!
Due to the immediacy of the situation, the plan will be enacted by Imperial Decree, er, Executive Order. Before November 6, so the grateful fawning adulation of the media outlets won’t interfere with their election coverage.
I agree with other sentiments reflected here – once again Willis’ smug attitude in the face of what is clearly a very rare and severe storm will only help turn more people off from WUWT. When facing danger and real hardship, I doubt that many will care that a smart alec thinks it is all a big hullabaloo about nothing.
The more things change the more they stay the same.
Years ago this storm would have been seen as a case of God punishing New Yorkers for their sinful ways. Today, this storm is seen as a case of God punishing New Yorkers for the sins of the rest of the world. Has New York become the new Christ, dying to save the rest of us from our sins?
John Brookes @ur momisugly 3:47 am on the 30th of October 2012:
“Super hot US summer, super low arctic ice minimum, and now a superstorm.
It could all be a coincidence, or there could be some other explanation…”
__________________________________
Indeed?
Super cold Australian winter, super high Antarctic sea-ice maximum, and a storm the like of which has been seen at various times in the past (see previous threads in WUWT), not to mention less rather than more hurricane and tornado activity lately.
Not only that…we’ve had a rather cool, damp and cloudy ‘summer’ here in the UK. Don’t you think that, on the whole, the planet balances itself out? I’m also inclined to think that that rather bright item up in the sky, that we see occasionally, might have a fair bit to do with any changes that do take place.
The major storm / minor storm controversy here is a replay of what happened last year with Irene. The downplayers were / are focused on criticizing the hyped-up or wildly inaccurate (wind-speed-focused, track-focused) scenarios put out by forecasters and the media. In both cases these storms caused about as much damage as the alarmists predicted, but it was due to other effects (rain or storm surge). The downplayers are making their case because the warmists have predicted “fewer but stronger (windier) storms,” and they want to scotch this claim. We should keep this in mind.
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Here’s a collection of photos of NYC this morning:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-30/east-coast-pictures-morning-after
“Up here in northernmost Vermont we were told to expect 80 mph gusts… It’s 9:25 and as far as I can tell, no one, anywhere, is getting 80 mph gusts.”
Here in Colorado, we get those almost every year. We call it spring. Kind of rough on kites.
My thought too. Con Ed seems incapable of being proactive.
“Article on the effects of subway flooding. Note the picture of Hoboken station and the lame attempt at flood control (a few sandbags). The station is now flooded. Questions should be asked, as to why no proper flood barrier.”
Those questions would have been asked eight years ago. They were asked during Katrina. Wondering why the silence now?