UPDATE: 7:40PM EST …SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL… …CENTER EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO…
Updated graphic from NHC:
As I mentioned yesterday, GOES-14 has been brought back into service to image Hurricane Sandy, and the image below will be updated though the day as Sandy approaches the coast.
UPDATED: The latest bulletin from NHC is sobering, max winds have maintained to 90mph…but looking at the last available visible image that shows any detail, it looks like the storm is losing cohesion.
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 ...SANDY MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE... ...LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...
Also WUWT readers may have interest in this historic storm story: 50 years ago: The Great Atlantic Storm of 1962. This was a guest post in March by Ric Werme since it was mentioned yesterday in the pleading call to action by the NWS in Mt. Holly, NJ. See also the dark side of this event: Bill McKibben and Joe Romm schlepping for Tabloid Climatology interviews.
See the latest stunning image (now with a defined eye) and full bulletin:
image above from this morning – click image to enlarge to high resolution
here’s the latest one from 2100Z
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 ...SANDY MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE... ...LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.8N 74.4W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NON-TROPICAL HIGH-WIND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 38.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHORTLY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SANDY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 485 MILES...780 KM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY... DELAWARE...AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND INCLUDING ALL OF THE CHESAPEAKE AND DELAWARE BAYS. HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATORS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. A HAM RADIO OPERATOR RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 64 MPH...103 KM/H...WITH GUST TO 86 MPH...138 KM/H IN WESTERLY RHODE ISLAND...AND ANOTHER HAM RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 76 MPH...122 KM/H IN BARNSTABLE MASSACHUSETTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE REACHED THE SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...FROM CONNECTICUT SOUTHWARD TO NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...3 TO 5 FT SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT MA/NH BORDER TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION... ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY. FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AT 700 AND 900 PM EDT...AND WHEN LANDFALL OCCURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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I love those satellite photos taken near sunrise and sunset. They do a great job bringing out out the relief of the cloud tops.
I feel sure that people in the affected areas are ready, plenty of food in the freezer in W Virginia and coastal populations now on high ground and under cover. Best of luck America.
My mother and Several of my brothers and sisters are in PA and NJ around Philadelphia and my father is down in Delaware. I’m watching.
Whahoo!
Ric Werme says: October 29, 2012 at 7:44 am
I love those satellite photos taken near sunrise and sunset. They do a great job bringing out out the relief of the cloud tops.
It is not odd that the light source is from the west, cloud shadows are on east side, at sunrise? It suppose it could be illuminated by the full, or nearly, so moon.
There is a weather watch warning about 7 metre waves in the Great Lakes. Can you tell Andy if the conditions now are similar to those that resulted in the devastating Great Lakes Storm of early November 1913?
en.Wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_ Lakes_Storm_of_1913
I certainly understand all the concern and prep in the mid-altantic. But I sit here this morning in central Massachusetts, all schools are closed, my work is telling me not to come in, and all the best information is that we will not see a sustained 30+ MPH wind until Tuesday-Wednesday. It’s misty/rainy and breezy right now.
There is definitely some insanity here in MA. There is no reason for the emegency treatment today.
Just the warmist’s luck. They get their dreamed for hurricane in the heavily populated Northeast, and it’s going to turn out to be a massive freezing event.
Hi,
I was watching the animation provided by one of your commenters:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templates/loop_directory.asp?data_folder=dev/lindsey/loops/goes14&image_width=1020&image_height=720&number_of_images_to_display=100
and I had found something I did not understand (and do not).
It seems as lower cloud layers are swirling as it should be but the upper layer(s) are not only moving “in corpore” against the hurricane’s revolution, but towards the land __against__ stream jets’ pushing!
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hemi.jet.html
What’s more interesting is the “hot area” just below-left of the storm’s eye which “generates” a lot of clouds which are moving onto the continent and which itself seems to be stationary (in relation to Sandy’s twirl).
Why the two cloud layers are moving in “opposite” directions? Why the two layers exist? Why the “hot plums” of vapor are moving against the hurricane’s rotation?
Regards
I am really glad I am not on the ride-out crew at Naval Station Norfolk…
It’s been a long time since the upper east coast received a significant hurricane. This one is only significant due to the sheer diameter of the entire system and the inertia it will have after leaving the Gulf Stream and moving inland.
New Orleans has parties for Cat 1’s and the rest of the GOM communities hardly blink at them. It is the media that hypes each and every landfalling system making it out to be more than it is. I recognize that this appears to be callous to those that are being affected by Sandy but preparedness for something of this nature gets relaxed when it has been decades since the last major hit this area.
I’ll also point out, that this won’t break the streak of days between landfalling Major storms.
Here’s a nice satellite color animation of Sandy.
http://bcove.me/um75zjg4
CNN reported an hour agi with live view of Atlantic City, and according to the (rather large) weather women, the water could reach up to the shore line!
Shock Horror!
The interesting text is always the forecast discussion rather than the public bulletin: Read this from 11 AM EDT Monday: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/291443.shtml
You will see highest winds are now up to 90 mph but only in a small area southwest of the center, which is still over the Gulf Stream. In a few hours, the center will begin to move over cooler water and will begin to weaken and transition to extratropical.
So much for Piers Corbyn’s forecast of a turn to the northeast.
The hurricane changed its mind and is now going after Obama in Washington?
The computer models from the11 AM report now shows the landfall shifting further south near the southern tip of NJ. I suspect this might push a lot of water up the Delaware Bay/river and cause problems for Philadelphia especially if the landfall moves further south.
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_18.gif
Actually what you are seeing is the Jetstream. Unlike a normal trough that causes the Jetstream to run from Southwest to Northeast up along the coast and out to sea, the current trough has what is called a Negative Tilt. This means that it runs on a Southeast to Northwest axis and is what is pulling Sandy onshore. You can see how the trough and how the Jetstream is running here:
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/JetStream.aspx
By the way, this is one of the few times I agree with Kerry Emanuel. http://blogs.wsj.com/speakeasy/2012/10/28/why-america-has-fallen-behind-the-world-in-storm-forecasting/
The shift of the Hurricane South could also have a greater impact on the NE refineries which are concetrated in the Delaware River
NYC area evacuation zones.
http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/zoneA_evac_centers_102612.pdf
Most of the precipitation , up to 200 mm in 24 hours is probably hitting towards Washington?
From what I saw forecasted yesterday they expected the heaviest precipitation on the SW side of the storm and the largest storm surge on the NE side. So if Sandy lands in the South Jersey area Maryland (including DC) is expected to get up to 10 inches of rain.
Pressure now down to 937mb and may go below 930 before landfall. Whether you are religious or not, please pray for the people up there as this could get very very bad.
PRD says:
October 29, 2012 at 8:24 am
New Orleans has parties for Cat 1′s and the rest of the GOM communities hardly blink at them.
Building Code Design wind speed for New Orleans is 150MPH. In Maine it’s 90 MPH, Connecticut 120 MPH.
The eye is closed on the latest (15:15 UTC) satellite photo:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/vis-l.jpg
Slowing down over cooler water?